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American or not, how would you hedge a Trump win on Nov. 8


hillfronter83

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The odds of a Trump win is very small to be non-existent. I am yet to see a poll that shows Trump winning the electoral college. I think he is going to carry Ohio and Iowa which is better than what Romney did last time around. Trump has no path without winning one or all three of these states - Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire.

 

I know what the polls are saying, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Trump pulled out a win in New Hampshire.  The Trump people seem to be a lot more excited and motivated than the Hillary voters.  All weekend I've seen the Trump people out in force at intersections, overpasses, city streets (in Manchester).  There was one intersection with about 15 people, mostly women and all looked Asian, waving flags and trump signs.  You can't find a Hillary supporter anywhere, yet the polls say she is leading.  Weird.

 

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The odds of a Trump win is very small to be non-existent. I am yet to see a poll that shows Trump winning the electoral college. I think he is going to carry Ohio and Iowa which is better than what Romney did last time around. Trump has no path without winning one or all three of these states - Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire.

 

I know what the polls are saying, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Trump pulled out a win in New Hampshire.  The Trump people seem to be a lot more excited and motivated than the Hillary voters.  All weekend I've seen the Trump people out in force at intersections, overpasses, city streets (in Manchester).  There was one intersection with about 15 people, mostly women and all looked Asian, waving flags and trump signs.  You can't find a Hillary supporter anywhere, yet the polls say she is leading.  Weird.

The polls are actually saying that NH is a really tight race. Anyway if H bagged Nevada - and it really looks like she did - then NH doesn't really matter. But we have a big poll coming out tomorrow which should answer a lot of questions.

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Long Guns. Ammo. Easily defensible land. Blood alliances. Personal health. Zero Hedge.

 

Almost all good advice anyway.  But Blood alliances?

 

The U.S. has the best system in the world making it the greatest country ever and it will continue to be this way regardless of who wins.  So, I'm definitely hoping Trump wins if it means market crash considering my massive cash position.

 

 

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Even though the election result is or might be a huge blow on multiple relevant issues (social, international relations, healthcare, individual rights), the markets are still fairly rational and profit-oriented. What if the corporate tax rate will be reduced in '17 and cash held overseas can be repatriated without a penalty and the banking/healthcare sector will not be overly regulated? Shouldn't the market come to this conclusion rather quickly? It seems the overall uncertainty overshadows the potential "good news" for a while.

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Long Guns. Ammo. Easily defensible land. Blood alliances. Personal health. Zero Hedge.

 

Almost all good advice anyway.  But Blood alliances?

 

The U.S. has the best system in the world making it the greatest country ever and it will continue to be this way regardless of who wins.  So, I'm definitely hoping Trump wins if it means market crash considering my massive cash position.

 

Two thumbs up!

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So did anyone hedge?

 

Damn, damn, damn!

 

No I have just under 20% in cash, I was expecting a Hillary victory and a rally as the Trump fears subsided.  I was then going to move to 50% cash.  If I had even suspected that Trump might win, I'd be holding a lot more cash right now.

 

As the great Yogi Berra said: It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

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Annnnnnd .... no reaction at all from the markets.  Not only was my prediction that Hillary would win wrong, but my prediction that the market would crash on a Trump win was also wrong.  That Yogi Berra really knew what he was talking about.

 

Well, you were right for about an hour....

 

Dow futures were down as much as 750-800 pts when it was first looking likely he'd win. I'm blown away by this morning's market action.

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So weird that banks went up. When I was going to bed and futures were tanking. I was thinking about the portfolio. How the election influences it and how to position it further. I was most worries about the banks and Berkshire. Now the banks are going through the roof. I may still be right to be concerned about the banks but the market at least today does not share my concerns.

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So what's your concern?

 

So weird that banks went up. When I was going to bed and futures were tanking. I was thinking about the portfolio. How the election influences it and how to position it further. I was most worries about the banks and Berkshire. Now the banks are going through the roof. I may still be right to be concerned about the banks but the market at least today does not share my concerns.

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