whiterose

This. I was thinking about exactly this the other day. Also what happens to the inventory of all those F&B places? The commercial/wholesale food suppliers can not easily sell their stuff to the grocers I assume; packages, sizes very different. What about the farmers, do they have enough (seasonal) manpower to harvest/process everything?

KMI got cut in half, am I missing something?

I live in Hong Kong and have seen the situation developing in China/Asia first hand since January. I'm actually optimistic at this point. We know what works to flatten the curve. Better treatments and medication are getting discovered and at some point, there will be a vaccine. You already see growth in cases stabilize in some Italian regions. Mainland China is getting back to work, albeit slowly. Flights within China are at 60% pre-crisis levels if I remember correctly. Based on their experience it would take a country 3months to gradually recover. My gut feeling says there is FOMO in the (forward-looking) equity markets, in the sense of if the global peak is in sight, doesn't even have to be reached yet, stock prices could suddenly skyrocket higher. It's not like after a war, where the factories are bombed out.

Crazy valuations.. are the pipelines a going concern(?)

maybe too small, but AER?

GM?

In the words of Tom Keene (Bloomberg Radio): "triple long money market" ;- )

But this time it's different.™

http://www.timmelvin.com/a-conversaation-with-ed-thorp/

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-10/high-inflation-low-rates-are-a-threat-to-merkel He makes some good points, but the "undervaluation" is I guess to be seen as relative (to norway/sweden maybe), not absolute. The level of homeownership is due cultural reasons bound at 50% (for a century?)

On a side note: the average german is not that financially savvy. Although they can budget and live within their means with a comparable high savings rate (in aggregate), the cash is mainly just sitting there in the bank getting 1%. There are multiple studies of this irrational risk-aversion. Stocks are at a 8-12% allocation, with maybe 80% owning no stocks/etfs at all. So all the cash is idle and piling up, then people say RE is save and steady and yields sth.. "think about your family/kids..", "to rent is throwing money away" etc. So all the regular Joes are buying RE at (recently) inflated prices since 09. The market is also crowded on the institutional front, where REITs, RE-funds, insurance companies (many german clients/assets), pension funds, trusts etc. have to invest in yielding assets. The bond market is not that attractive anymore and the ECB is competing there with the bond buying program. Stocks are considered too risky or from a regulatory perspective not allowed. So many are forced to turn to alternatives ->RE.

Sorry to burst your bubble but I'm german and a bit RE-knowledgeable: This is only true in so far if the relevant bureaucracy gets wind of it. That's not true, you pay a one-time transaction-tax of around 5-6.5%, then there are quarterly RE-taxes based on the "value" of the house. These are relatively low because the relevant values-table is from 1935. This is absolutely true, the prices have already risen since 08/09, so the yields even in B-cities/locations are way too low considering the risks (and rental-laws in favour of the renter). Rents have risen also, but incomes not so much on the other hand. I can't really see how RE-prices can go higher from where we are when interest rates are on their way of going up and rent as share of income is higher as ever. In any case, you should be a seller of RE in germany today, not a buyer.

how do you lose money working as an attorney? ;- )

You shouldn't confuse art as such with the art-market, these are two different things. Art works which are culturally significant and have a place in art history are not necessarily high priced. There is over time a correlation between the two, but it's not that strong I guess maybe 0.4? Also there are trends/fads like in fashion, which can last for 1-50 years, or even will get rebooted after 100 years. There are some interesting studies regarding investing in art, but to not get into detail; it's per se a not very rational option if you look at it just for investing purposes. You are able to make money though via buying low and selling high in a shorter time frame ("flipping"), if you guess the current value right and have on the other side of the deal as best case scenario a willing buyer. But that's already a business called being an art-dealer.

Hey Guys, I'm contemplating going to the annual meeting in 2017, despite the live-streaming which will be available again I guess. The question is since I'm based in europe, what is the best route to travel to Omaha? Fly to a nearby bigger city and then go by rental car or train or bus? What are your experiences from the last times you went? Any advice is much appreciated.

Can confirm.

He mentioned Southwest looking to dip their toes into europe. I would see this as a huge negative considering the cutthroat competitive landscape. Except Ryanair, noone seems to make any real money imho.

This is and was always true, even under Obama 8) The peeps should have officially made him that: King of Hyperbole™ instead of PE.

It does, when you don't (have to) sell below par, there is no economic loss. Only opportunity cost, but in the real world you have to make decisions under uncertainty and holding to maturity is the best approach I guess. Some insurance-investment-managers may trade around their positions, but in a theoretical simplified world, the "virtual gains" from the past were non-existent just like the future "virtual losses" are not really there. It's all about the incoming interest payments, which will rise over time, it seems. It should be a continuous lagged process.

That is basically the definition of insurance (P&C, health etc). I wouldn't want to live in a pre-insured world, where it wasn't invented yet. All members of a specific group (villages, cities, countries, traders, car owners etc) are as a whole better off with this kind of risk-sharing on their hands. I argue it increases the overall fairness by insulating fellow humans from bad luck / acts of god. The question is how to design such a system efficiently with what parameters/incentives etc.

From what I understand about the insurance industry, this is basically correct. But unlike a bond-fund, the fixed income securities are held to maturity (if you have prudent management) to match future liabilities. So even when in a falling rate environment you get some unrealized gains in comprehensive income (mark-to-market), they will not be realized or paid out ("virtual" gains). In a rising rate env. you have the opposite: falling mark-to-market prices but no realized losses. On the other hand, in the meantime the new float can be invested in higher yielding bonds. So all in all a net-positive on the investment-side, if prudently managed. But I'm not an expert.

@NBL0303: thanks for the insight.

From Nate Silver: Are the electoral votes binding?

I know.. 8) It's a real possibility imho..

Even though the election result is or might be a huge blow on multiple relevant issues (social, international relations, healthcare, individual rights), the markets are still fairly rational and profit-oriented. What if the corporate tax rate will be reduced in '17 and cash held overseas can be repatriated without a penalty and the banking/healthcare sector will not be overly regulated? Shouldn't the market come to this conclusion rather quickly? It seems the overall uncertainty overshadows the potential "good news" for a while.