Semper Augustus

[dealraker]

18 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

It's true, Charlie [ @dealraker ],

 

Mr. Bloomstran is indeed promotional, his letters gradually becoming an integrated part of his brand, and branding, branding of his business [read : AUM].

 

However, we all have our personal freedoms to decide for our selves about what to do with our saved and compounded capital.

 

I personally use his annnually work to gauge [, with no real precision, should be said], if I'm basically at the right path [, or not], with regard to [still?]  holding a monstruous Berkshire position, to keep me and my household alive in this non-zero-sum game, no matter what.

 

 

As I said, you are a better investor than he is.  Would I let you manage my money?  Yes.  Would I let him?  No.

 

And we have at least two other guys here who I'd let manage my money too and I'd never lose a bit of sleep.  Ha!  Just mentioning that as you say "we all have our personal freedoms...." and whatnot.

 

Have a good day John.  

[John Hjorth]

18 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Hi @John Hjorth, what’s your return expectation for Berkshire (if you think about it that way)? Personally, I’m finding most active absolute return investors have high return expectations and short time frames but there are exceptions. 

 

Hi @SafetyinNumbers,

 

It's a good, straight, direct and by priciple a simple question, but it actually creates a brainstorm thinking about it :

 

I would say max. eight [8] per cent, unless capital allocation [which in recent years has lagged cash generation severely] gets up to speed again, to the former modus operandi with regular acquisitions of sufficient size at reasonable prices.

 

Rolling T-Bills at the actual extent and level as done now at Berkshire hurts and interrupts - al least partly - compounding and capital generation in a material way.

 

New good stuff at reasonable prices needs to be added to get to the next level of earnings. -And we will continue to discuss from now till doomsday why it isen't really happening by now, right?

 

For me personally, eight per cent is still progress after tax and recent local inflation below two percent, and with a material part of the taxes deferred.

 

There are small positive signs here and there, if one is observant, though.

 

From the 2024 Shareholder Letter one gets the impression of close cooperation between Mr. Buffett and the man to take his place one day, which is good.

 

A boatload of cash, approx. USD 68 billion [USD 67,826 million] has in 2024 been moved from - most likely - the insurance subsidiaries - to Berkshire Hathaway, the parent company. For me personally, hopefully not for dividends, but for buying stuff other than T-bills, - treasury shares, or acquisition of something good and big stuff, to move the needle.

 

[p. K-119 :]

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

5 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Hi @SafetyinNumbers,

 

It's a good, straight, direct and by priciple a simple question, but it actually creates a brainstorm thinking about it :

 

I would say max. eight [8] per cent, unless capital allocation [which in recent years has lagged cash generation severely] gets up to speed again, to the former modus operandi with regular acquisitions of sufficient size at reasonable prices.

 

Rolling T-Bills at the actual extent and level as done now at Berkshire hurts and interrupts - al least partly - compounding and capital generation in a material way.

 

New good stuff at reasonable prices needs to be added to get to the next level of earnings. -And we will continue to discuss from now till doomsday why it isen't really happening by now, right?

 

For me personally, eight per cent is still progress after tax and recent local inflation below two percent, and with a material part of the taxes deferred.

 

There are small positive signs here and there, if one is observant, though.

 

From the 2024 Shareholder Letter one gets the impression of close cooperation between Mr. Buffett and the man to take his place one day, which is good.

 

A boatload of cash, approx. USD 68 billion [USD 67,826 million] has in 2024 been moved from - most likely - the insurance subsidiaries - to Berkshire Hathaway, the parent company. For me personally, hopefully not for dividends, but for buying stuff other than T-bills, - treasury shares, or acquisition of something good and big stuff, to move the needle.

 

[p. K-119 :]

 

Thanks! That’s very interesting.

[dealraker]

48 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Thanks! That’s very interesting.

I would agree with John on the 8%.  

[Pellom]

I understand many here argue it is a waste of time, but I found this year's letter to be insightful, as is always the case.

 

Chris has an accountant's view of the world - something I wish I had. The way he explains certain topics helps me understand them better. 

[John Hjorth]

42 minutes ago, Pellom said:

I understand many here argue it is a waste of time, but I found this year's letter to be insightful, as is always the case.

 

Chris has an accountant's view of the world - something I wish I had. The way he explains certain topics helps me understand them better. 

 

It's absolutely imperative to yourself, and to your own evolution and development over time as an investor , that you insist on your own opinion, and follows whatever your ever electrical signals hitting your brain is telling you [and sorting out and ditching no go material], and act accordingly.

 

What you'll then find out over time, is what risks and which risks are you willing to assume, to take on.

 

To this day, by now, I personally think my own greatest handicap while seriously getting in to this game, was exactly being an accountant, by profession. 

 

Please keep your posts coming, @Pellom 

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

Looking at Bloomstran's portfolio, I am not really sure what he's trying to achieve. He's a Buffett fan boy and holds Berkshire, that bit I understand.

 

Most of the rest of the portfolio? It doesn't make sense to me. For someone managing under a billion, are the discount stores really the best idea that this guy has?

 

He's clearly an intelligent person and he understands Berkshire very well. At the same time, he doesn't strike me as a particularly good investor. 

[dealraker]

4 hours ago, Ballinvarosig Investors said:

Looking at Bloomstran's portfolio, I am not really sure what he's trying to achieve. He's a Buffett fan boy and holds Berkshire, that bit I understand.

 

Most of the rest of the portfolio? It doesn't make sense to me. For someone managing under a billion, are the discount stores really the best idea that this guy has?

 

He's clearly an intelligent person and he understands Berkshire very well. At the same time, he doesn't strike me as a particularly good investor. 

Value investors have an obsessive need to create deep dives and read deep dives and Bloomstran has a big piece of the minds of some who are in this camp.  He works it very hard, particularly the much obsessed Berk take.  He follows several who have successfully used this model in the past.  Does this presentation give him financial rewards?

 

He slides over on the "the market's always wrong" side which is too always a heavily sought after value investors theme.  He's a good promoter.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cod Liver Oil]

Yes, deep value guys’ obsession with complexity and suffering often leads to…..more suffering. 
Joe, Nintendo and Google are doing well and will continue to grow over the next few years. No epiphanies needed. 
 

Edited Thursday at 08:48 PM by Cod Liver Oil

[DooDiligence]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

Value investors have an obsessive need to create deep dives and read deep dives and Bloomstran has a big piece of the minds of some who are in this camp.  He works it very hard, particularly the much obsessed Berk take.  He follows several who have successfully used this model in the past.  Does this presentation give him financial rewards?

 

He slides over on the "the market's always wrong" side which is too always a heavily sought after value investors theme.  He's a good promoter.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Makes me think behavior has more of an influence on returns than deep analysis.

edit: says the guy who has trouble behaving.

Edited Thursday at 02:00 PM by DooDiligence

[CassiusKing1]

1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Yes, deep value guys’ obsession with complexity and suffering often leads to…..more suffering. 

Bloomstran needs to learn the same lesson that Warren learned from Charlie.  Quality matters.  Quality at a good price is an investable asset.

[Intelligent_Investor]

8 hours ago, Ballinvarosig Investors said:

Looking at Bloomstran's portfolio, I am not really sure what he's trying to achieve. He's a Buffett fan boy and holds Berkshire, that bit I understand.

 

Most of the rest of the portfolio? It doesn't make sense to me. For someone managing under a billion, are the discount stores really the best idea that this guy has?

 

He's clearly an intelligent person and he understands Berkshire very well. At the same time, he doesn't strike me as a particularly good investor. 

Bloomstran is a better analyst than investor. He's like Mohnish in that listening to him and reading his stuff can give you good insights but in practice they aren't that great at investing. 

Edited Thursday at 03:44 PM by Intelligent_Investor

[gfp]

3 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

Bloomstran is a better analyst than investor. He's like Mohnish in that listening to him reading his stuff can give you good insights but in practice they aren't that great at investing. 

 

There is a lot of that in this business.  Ask Doo Diligence, it's just like music.  Just because you are well studied and talented in music doesn't mean you can improvise in real time when it's your turn to wing it up there on stage.

[DooDiligence]

13 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

There is a lot of that in this business.  Ask Doo Diligence, it's just like music.  Just because you are well studied and talented in music doesn't mean you can improvise in real time when it's your turn to wing it up there on stage.

 

I'm actually a reasonably good comping keyboardist and can either lead or follow the harmony of a feature artist. Just don't expect any fancy pants right hand riffs. edit: do be prepared for lengthy behind the scenes theory geek discussions.

 

Edited Thursday at 03:57 PM by DooDiligence

[charlieruane]

4 hours ago, gfp said:

 

There is a lot of that in this business.  Ask Doo Diligence, it's just like music.  Just because you are well studied and talented in music doesn't mean you can improvise in real time when it's your turn to wing it up there on stage.

 

Beautiful simile! Thanks for sharing. 

[DooDiligence]

56 minutes ago, charlieruane said:

 

Beautiful simile! Thanks for sharing. 

 

Oh yeah, I should add that I need to practice with an artist beforehand or it'll be mid. Pianists who can do this on the spot, with any material, are friggin' amazing.

[Pellom]

On 2/27/2025 at 10:38 AM, Intelligent_Investor said:

Bloomstran is a better analyst than investor. He's like Mohnish in that listening to him and reading his stuff can give you good insights but in practice they aren't that great at investing. 

I'm not sure that's true. They don't have public numbers posted on their website, but Chris says in this year's letter that they've beaten the S&P (net of fees) by about 1.5% a year since inception. 

[John Hjorth]

@Pellom,

 

From the 2024 Semper Augustus Letter :

 

[Munger_Disciple]

19 minutes ago, Pellom said:

I'm not sure that's true. They don't have public numbers posted on their website, but Chris says in this year's letter that they've beaten the S&P (net of fees) by about 1.5% a year since inception. 

 

I don't know if Chris is a good investor or not, but I give him credit for putting his very detailed work (at least on BRK) out to the public supporting his large holding of the stock. No doubt he is also using it as a marketing tool but I respect him for his in-depth work that he shares publicly. I have never seen Mohnish do an in-depth analysis of anything (I find most of his reasoning very superficial on equities) in his hundreds of marketing events/ talks. I don't think Chris seeks publicity like Mohnish either. So for me Bloomstran is a good resource even when I disagree with his valuation work which tends to be a bit too optimistic on BRK's intrinsic value. I greatly admire Mohnish's charity work in India but I can't say I learned anything about investing from him. I (prefer&) enjoy learning directly from Warren & Charlie instead of listening to Mohnish repeat a thousand times what they said without adding much.  

Edited Friday at 07:50 PM by Munger_Disciple

[Intelligent_Investor]

On 2/28/2025 at 1:30 PM, Pellom said:

I'm not sure that's true. They don't have public numbers posted on their website, but Chris says in this year's letter that they've beaten the S&P (net of fees) by about 1.5% a year since inception. 

I don't consider beating the S&P by 1.5% since inception when 20% of his fund was in Berkshire over the same period to be outperformance. It means net of his Berkshire exposure, he underperformed.