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2015 portfolio performance


muscleman
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What's your 2015 portfolio performance  

554 members have voted

  1. 1. What's your 2015 portfolio performance

    • -30% or more
    • -20% to -29%
    • -10% to -19%
    • 0% to -9%
    • 0% to 9%
    • 10% to 19%
    • 20% to 29%
    • 30% or more


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I think we should normalize the response in a given currency, maybe USD as 0% in USD is equal to 18% in CAD.

 

Packer

 

It's tough to expect people to do that but would be nice. I track in USD since I live here.

 

I've been following this board for three years and this is the latest I've seen this poll come up. Not a good year for investing. I ended up exactly matching the S&P which I guess is ok but given I was up significantly in the summer, it's disappointing.

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I think we should normalize the response in a given currency, maybe USD as 0% in USD is equal to 18% in CAD.

 

Packer

 

Except that I would have to revise all of my historical numbers from 2005 to 2013 much higher. 

 

From a Canadian perspective it is part of the annual results every year.  In time everything works itself out.  Working out this years results is tricky enough with the massive changes in my portfolio and ins and outs for living expenses, purchases etc.  It will be another few days before I have it all figured out with reasonable accuracy. 

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I've been following this board for three years and this is the latest I've seen this poll come up. Not a good year for investing. I ended up exactly matching the S&P which I guess is ok but given I was up significantly in the summer, it's disappointing.

 

No kidding - its kind of hilarious in a pathetic sort of way.  Last year peopke couldn't wait to brag.  That's why I post long term results as well. 

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2015 results from Quicken: -5% (yes, that's "minus five") overall, -9% (minus nine) if I include only accounts managed by myself (not counting 401(k)s, externally managed, wife's, etc.).

 

Caveat: I don't trust Quicken IRR.

 

My Fido reporting is totally screwed up in 2015 since I created couple new accounts and did a large transfer into them. This screws up Fido reporting, since they treat new accounts as having zero history (not even 1 year). So no Fido return numbers.

 

Negative: this is a crappy return especially compared to people on this board. It is also crappy return compared to indexes.

 

Positive (?): if I had put all my money into BRK and FRFHF on January 1, 2015, my return would have been even worse.

Edit: FRFHF actually shows -7.8% now. It was showing -11% recently. So I guess FRFHF outperformed my return. BRK still showing >11% loss.

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In my view --- each investor needs to select a base currency and report their performance results in that base currency. This is what companies/pension plans/funds do when reporting their results and also in assessing whether to hedge or not their foreign currency exposures.

 

In my case -- I live in Canada and therefore use the Canadian dollar as my base currency. It would not make sense for me to report my performance in USD.

 

Having said that---I fully expected the USD to strengthen against the CAD during 2015 and increased my exposure to US equities in early Q1 2015  accordingly. Historically the CAD correlates to the price of oil almost 1:1. The relationship between the price of oil and CAD continued in 2015. Although I do not believe the run up in the USD versus CAD is fully over--I am looking to slightly lighten up my USD equity exposure in Q1 of 2016.

 

The result---in Canadian dollar terms I achieved a rate of return on my overall portfolio of 9.24% during 2015.

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24% in € after commissions and interest

8% F/X

22% Shorts in the summer on xbi and russel2k futures

3% long mainly us stocks including ~6% loss on nwh.ax and rsss

-5% leveraged asset allocation

-3% short term trades and options

-2% commission and interest for shorts

 

so no microcap stocks and options for me next year, moved more money to IB to reduce commissions. Was the worst year for a diversified asset allocation in quite some time, so hopefully next year is better there. Overall my summer hedges have saved the year for me.

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The good news is that I made it to the "0% to 9%" tranche, but the bad news is that I BARELY made it...total return of 0.36%.

 

 

If not for Markel's 29% increase, this would have been a really bad year. Onward and upward...

 

 

-Crip

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+43,7% in SEK

 

About 50% invested in two swedish small caps (Effnetplattformen and Bahnhof) rest in AAPL, BRK, SBUX, GOOG and some fixed income.

 

+39.9% 2014

+71% 2013

 

Learned from my poker years that big mistakes tend to come after this type of good runs so I realize I might now be prone to take on too much risk and have too unwarranted conviction.

 

Edit: F/X is about 8% on the swedish stocks, maybe 6% total.

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If I go by my native currency (CDN $), 2015 was poor but not awful. If I go by US $, it was a truly terrible year.

 

Biggest source of pain: Canadian O&G

 

Saving grace: putting a fair chunk of money into US dollar assets fairly early in the year (mainly cash).

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With 60% of my tax sheltered portfolio in FFH, I’ve come to expect “lumpy” results.  So after adjusting for minimum mandatory withdrawals (and in $Cdn) 2013 was +19.1%, 2014 was +24.8%, and 2015 was +2.5%!  But as a long term buy and hold forever (read “lazy”?) investor, my CAGR since 1999 has been 8.1% -- exactly in line with the 8% factor I used back in 1996 when trying to decide whether I could afford to retire in 1999 at age 58.  So no serious complaints or regrets!

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Measured in EUR: This year 20.23%, IRR since inception mid 2010: 26%

 

Pretty pleased with that result because I really own and owned a lot of companies with exposure to things that performed poor this year (oil, emerging markets, commodities). Think PDER, CNRD, AWLCF, BOL.AX, DSWL, ARGO, CDU.LS, RHDGF. Think the year has been saved by a bunch of special situations and a currency headwind, but have yet to do the attribution calculations.

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This might be a stupid question but how do you figure out your return if you add funds everything month? I suppose it makes sense to just look at the total commited funds at year end which sorta compares to being in cash thoughout the year, ie it lowers the returns on both the upside and down side. I think I did 15-20 percent but will have to check the numbers.

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This might be a stupid question but how do you figure out your return if you add funds everything month? I suppose it makes sense to just look at the total commited funds at year end which sorta compares to being in cash thoughout the year, ie it lowers the returns on both the upside and down side. I think I did 15-20 percent but will have to check the numbers.

 

Take a look at the XIRR function in either Google Sheets or Excel

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This might be a stupid question but how do you figure out your return if you add funds everything month? I suppose it makes sense to just look at the total commited funds at year end which sorta compares to being in cash thoughout the year, ie it lowers the returns on both the upside and down side. I think I did 15-20 percent but will have to check the numbers.

 

Time weighted return is ridiculously hard to do by hand. Thankfully Schwab does it for me.

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