Elon Musk...human?

[Jurgis]

Musk faked Moon landing in 1969.

 

 

 

 

 

8)

[randomep]

Musk faked Moon landing in 1969.

 

 

 

 

 

8)

 

was he even born?

 

[Travis Wiedower]

Why don't ya marry him - looks like he's available ;) Hopefully this thread doesn't go the way of the Elizabeth Holmes thread.

 

Even if Tesla becomes a 0 in the future (certainly possible), there is no denying the positive impact that company has had on the auto industry and the world in general. The big automakers would have gladly sat around twiddling their thumbs with respect to electric cars had a viable competitor like Tesla not forced it upon them. And then there's Space-X which has arguably had a bigger impact on the world thus far and less of a chance of failure from this point forward.

 

As far as I know, Elizabeth Holmes was a lot of smoke and mirrors before caving in. That's a big difference compared to a public company whose products we all use and/or see and a rocket company who we've all watched launch rockets.

[boilermaker75]

Why don't ya marry him - looks like he's available ;) Hopefully this thread doesn't go the way of the Elizabeth Holmes thread.

 

Even if Tesla becomes a 0 in the future (certainly possible), there is no denying the positive impact that company has had on the auto industry and the world in general. The big automakers would have gladly sat around twiddling their thumbs with respect to electric cars had a viable competitor like Tesla not forced it upon them. And then there's Space-X which has arguably had a bigger impact on the world thus far and less of a chance of failure from this point forward.

 

As far as I know, Elizabeth Holmes was a lot of smoke and mirrors before caving in. That's a big difference compared to a public company whose products we all use and/or see and a rocket company who we've all watched launch rockets.

 

And land them!

[Jurgis]

Musk faked Moon landing in 1969.

 

was he even born?

 

Obviously he went back in time.

[boilermaker75]

Musk faked Moon landing in 1969.

 

was he even born?

 

Obviously he went back in time.

 

He used the Tesla that comes with a flux capacitor.

[rkbabang]

Musk faked Moon landing in 1969.

 

was he even born?

 

Obviously he went back in time.

 

He used the Tesla that comes with a flux capacitor.

 

That is the model which has an incredible battery that can deliver 1.21 gigawatts to the flux capacitor for time travel.  Manufactured in the gigafactory of course.

[Jurgis]

Musk faked Moon landing in 1969.

 

was he even born?

 

Obviously he went back in time.

 

He used the Tesla that comes with a flux capacitor.

 

That is the model which has an incredible battery that can deliver 1.21 gigawatts to the flux capacitor for time travel.  Manufactured in the gigafactory of course.

 

It's model E. You can order it for 2025, it's gonna be made in 2030, and delivered to you in 2018.

[Spekulatius]

Musk faked Moon landing in 1969.

 

was he even born?

 

Obviously he went back in time.

 

He used the Tesla that comes with a flux capacitor.

 

That is the model which has an incredible battery that can deliver 1.21 gigawatts to the flux capacitor for time travel.  Manufactured in the gigafactory of course.

 

It's model E. You can order it for 2025, it's gonna be made in 2030, and delivered to you in 2018.

 

That's why Elon is so good - he is ahead of his time because he can travel in the future. I vote for "not human".

[TedKord]

This is from a presentation on Ivanhoe Mines, as transcribed by Lesley Stokes of the Northern Miner. I thought it was interesting but can't think of any place to put it:

 

"During his presentation, Friedland flipped between photos of Wall Street in 1900 and 1913. In the first, the street is populated with horse and buggies, and in the latter, it’s packed with motor vehicles.

His point was to demonstrate how quickly disruptive technologies can transform demand and “change the world.” He says the era of gasoline-powered vehicles is coming to a close, and it will require a “huge amount of metal” to make the transformation.

 

“Your typical car has 55 lb. copper, a Toyota Prius has 110 lb. copper and an electric car uses 165 lb. copper,” he said. “That’s a huge amount of metal under your feet.”

Extra weight also comes from an electric vehicle’s lithium-ion batteries, which include lesser amounts of cobalt and spherical graphite. (An all-electric Tesla Model S weighs 2,108 kg, compared to a gasoline-powered V6 Toyota Camry’s curb weight of 1,551 kg.)"

 

[Jurgis]

Extra weight also comes from an electric vehicle’s lithium-ion batteries, which include lesser amounts of cobalt and spherical graphite. (An all-electric Tesla Model S weighs 2,108 kg, compared to a gasoline-powered V6 Toyota Camry’s curb weight of 1,551 kg.)"

 

Hmm, that kinda sucks. Assuming this is somewhat fair comparison, you have to lug around 1.4x weight. Doesn't that shoot the energy efficiency to smithereens? Yeah, I know price-wise fuel-only you still probably come out ahead in gas vs. electricity cost. But I'm talking about pure joule to joule comparison with losses included. Was this ever asked to Musk? (Sorry my physics is rusty, I'm sure resident experts will chime in)

[valueorama]

Even if Tesla becomes a 0 in the future (certainly possible), there is no denying the positive impact that company has had on the auto industry and the world in general. The big automakers would have gladly sat around twiddling their thumbs with respect to electric cars had a viable competitor like Tesla not forced it upon them.

Car companies have been doing research and introducing Electric cars for some time.

Here is GM EV1 1996-1999 ==> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1

People have short term memory.

In fact as we speak GM is ahead of Tesla in introducing a EV at less than $40k. Search for Chevy BOLT. One can order it and get it this fall.

 

[rkbabang]

Even if Tesla becomes a 0 in the future (certainly possible), there is no denying the positive impact that company has had on the auto industry and the world in general. The big automakers would have gladly sat around twiddling their thumbs with respect to electric cars had a viable competitor like Tesla not forced it upon them.

Car companies have been doing research and introducing Electric cars for some time.

Here is GM EV1 1996-1999 ==> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1

People have short term memory.

In fact as we speak GM is ahead of Tesla in introducing a EV at less than $40k. Search for Chevy BOLT. One can order it and get it this fall.

 

I'll never understand why all of the traditional car companies think that you need to make your electric vehicles look as strange and ugly as possible.  I wouldn't drive that car if you gave it to me.

 

 

[beerbaron]

Extra weight also comes from an electric vehicle’s lithium-ion batteries, which include lesser amounts of cobalt and spherical graphite. (An all-electric Tesla Model S weighs 2,108 kg, compared to a gasoline-powered V6 Toyota Camry’s curb weight of 1,551 kg.)"

 

Hmm, that kinda sucks. Assuming this is somewhat fair comparison, you have to lug around 1.4x weight. Doesn't that shoot the energy efficiency to smithereens? Yeah, I know price-wise fuel-only you still probably come out ahead in gas vs. electricity cost. But I'm talking about pure joule to joule comparison with losses included. Was this ever asked to Musk? (Sorry my physics is rusty, I'm sure resident experts will chime in)

 

The extra weight is more than offset by the higher efficiency of the electric engine. Internal Combustion Engines have a maximum theoretical efficiency limit of around 30% while an electric motor can reach 80% and up. Furthermore, electric engines can recharge the batteries when braking. So even if your weight is heavier, you will get back most of this energy in a city driving environment.

 

BeerBaron

 

[Investor20]

 

.....Furthermore, electric engines can recharge the batteries when braking. So even if your weight is heavier, you will get back most of this energy in a city driving environment.

 

BeerBaron

 

I am not expert in carbon prints of electric car vs gasoline cars.  However, my point is regular gasoline cars have also improved.

 

Prius 2017:          54 city / 50 highway

Honda civic 2016: 31 city / 42 highway

Honda civic 2011: 26 city / 34 highway

 

For someone having mostly highway commute, the differential between regular and hybrid cars is going down.

Yes in some places even highway driving can be stop & go, but my point is one won't actually put much mileage in stop & go scenario and vast majority is highway driving at decent speed. Thus, even though hybrids are vastly better in city driving, it is not relevant unless someone puts a lot of mileage in city driving which is difficult because they can only go so far in an hour in city traffic.

 

When we talk about electrical/hybrid cars, we need to compare with improvements in regular cars which have considerably improved particularly in Highway mileage in recent years.

 

For example in one of my previous jobs, I used to have 40 miles of highway driving and 4 miles of local driving.  The Honda civic is competitive with that type of driving profile.

 

 

 

 

 

[rkbabang]

 

.....Furthermore, electric engines can recharge the batteries when braking. So even if your weight is heavier, you will get back most of this energy in a city driving environment.

 

BeerBaron

 

I am not expert in carbon prints of electric car vs gasoline cars.  However, my point is regular gasoline cars have also improved.

 

Prius 2017:          54 city / 50 highway

Honda civic 2016: 31 city / 42 highway

Honda civic 2011: 26 city / 34 highway

 

For someone having mostly highway commute, the differential between regular and hybrid cars is going down.

Yes in some places even highway driving can be stop & go, but my point is one won't actually put much mileage in stop & go scenario and vast majority is highway driving at decent speed. Thus, even though hybrids are vastly better in city driving, it is not relevant unless someone puts a lot of mileage in city driving which is difficult because they can only go so far in an hour in city traffic.

 

When we talk about electrical/hybrid cars, we need to compare with improvements in regular cars which have considerably improved particularly in Highway mileage in recent years.

 

For example in one of my previous jobs, I used to have 40 miles of highway driving and 4 miles of local driving.  The Honda civic is competitive with that type of driving profile.

 

The Civic is a very small compact car, I think the advantage of a hybrid is that you can get compact car like milage in a mid-sized car such as:

 

2016 Toyota Camry Hybrid:  43 city / 39 highway

 

 

[TedKord]

Boy, this conversation isn't going the direction I thought it would. in 2015 worldwide auto + commercial vehicle production was 90m, 2015 total worldwide Cu production was 19.1m tonnes. If every car needs an extra 100 lbs of Cu we need an additional 4m tonnes of production. Codelco, the world's largest copper producer made a little less than 2m tonnes last year. Either Telsa and the rest of the electric car makers aren't going to hit their targets on production, or we're supposed to be buying the heck out of copper and lithium miners.

[Jurgis]

Boy, this conversation isn't going the direction I thought it would. in 2015 worldwide auto + commercial vehicle production was 90m, 2015 total worldwide Cu production was 19.1m tonnes. If every car needs an extra 100 lbs of Cu we need an additional 4m tonnes of production. Codelco, the world's largest copper producer made a little less than 2m tonnes last year. Either Telsa and the rest of the electric car makers aren't going to hit their targets on production, or we're supposed to be buying the heck out of copper and lithium miners.

 

TedKord,

 

What is the timeline you are considering to get to 90m electric cars?

 

Tesla AFAIK is the most aggressive and we are still talking only 500K cars in 2018 (?). That's only 50m pounds of extra copper or 22k tonnes. That's only 10% increase of Codelco production and only ~1% increase of worldwide production.

 

When you say "Either Telsa and the rest of the electric car makers aren't going to hit their targets on production", can you point to what these targets are? How fast you expect them to go from 500K cars to 1M, 10M, 90m?

 

Don't forget that optimization happens too. The fact that the car needs 100 more lbs of copper today doesn't mean it will need 100 more lbs of copper in 10 years. In particular if we gonna switch to Uber-taxi model, most cars could be much smaller since really nobody needs SUVs or even four seaters most of the time... (which BTW was not mentioned in the discussion of whether car production drops or rises when we have self driving cars).

 

Lithium might be more attractive, but I haven't done the math since I probably won't invest in commodities companies anyway. Too many things can go unexpectedly sideways. In particular often costs rise as fast or faster than profits + crazy expansions, acquisitions, etc. :)

[TedKord]

Admittedly, hyperbole on my part. No one suggests that we'll produce 90m EC in 2018. But Friedland's point was that disruptive technologies move very quickly. We're going to need a lot more metal, sooner than we think. Even 1 million EC cars is about 45k tonnes of CU (using 100 lbs per car). That is HubBay's Cu production last quarter. It's not nothing.

[rkbabang]

Admittedly, hyperbole on my part. No one suggests that we'll produce 90m EC in 2018. But Friedland's point was that disruptive technologies move very quickly. We're going to need a lot more metal, sooner than we think. Even 1 million EC cars is about 45k tonnes of CU (using 100 lbs per car). That is HubBay's Cu production last quarter. It's not nothing.

 

"disruptive technologies move very quickly"

 

They do and this will apply to automated vehicles as well as electric vehicles (maybe more so, since automation isn't limited by battery technology).    Fully autonomous vehicles will reduce the number of cars on the road by a huge amount.  I'd predict a factor of 10 at first then by a factor of 100+.  90M cars/year could be 9M/year in the mid-term and 900K in the long-term.

 

[Jurgis]

Fully autonomous vehicles will reduce the number of cars on the road by a huge amount.  I'd predict a factor of 10 at first then by a factor of 100+.  90M cars/year could be 9M/year in the mid-term and 900K in the long-term.

 

Hmm, I'm somewhat in the camp that the number of cars produced won't likely go down much. Very very optimistically (or pessimistically?) to 1/2 of current. I see proportionally more smaller cars - almost nobody needs four-seater taxi - but I don't see why you think the production will drop so much. Can you walk through your thinking and numbers?

 

My thinking follows the discussion on FCAU thread (I think): The number of miles driven is unlikely to go down (I still have to do all my driving legs even if I call self-driving-Uber). It might even go up if cars have to drive empty to pick next person and if people switch from busses to self-driving-Uber. Assuming number-of-miles-driven doesn't go down, it doesn't matter that person does not buy a car. The car wears out from being driven. So replacement cycle based on miles driven won't change (much). There is some replacement from cars being old but not driven much, but that's likely what 10-20% of replacement? So OK, let's go all the way and say 50% of replacement gone. That's where we get to 1/2 of current.

 

Maybe you can argue that electric/automatic cars don't wear out at 200K miles driven, but I'm not sure that's true... Anyway, I don't see cars going to 1/10 even in wildly optimistic (pessimistic?) scenarios. :) I'm not talking about possibility that something else replaces the car concept way long term.

[rkbabang]

Fully autonomous vehicles will reduce the number of cars on the road by a huge amount.  I'd predict a factor of 10 at first then by a factor of 100+.  90M cars/year could be 9M/year in the mid-term and 900K in the long-term.

 

Hmm, I'm somewhat in the camp that the number of cars produced won't likely go down much. Very very optimistically (or pessimistically?) to 1/2 of current. I see proportionally more smaller cars - almost nobody needs four-seater taxi - but I don't see why you think the production will drop so much. Can you walk through your thinking and numbers?

 

My thinking follows the discussion on FCAU thread (I think): The number of miles driven is unlikely to go down (I still have to do all my driving legs even if I call self-driving-Uber). It might even go up if cars have to drive empty to pick next person and if people switch from busses to self-driving-Uber. Assuming number-of-miles-driven doesn't go down, it doesn't matter that person does not buy a car. The car wears out from being driven. So replacement cycle based on miles driven won't change (much). There is some replacement from cars being old but not driven much, but that's likely what 10-20% of replacement? So OK, let's go all the way and say 50% of replacement gone. That's where we get to 1/2 of current.

 

Maybe you can argue that electric/automatic cars don't wear out at 200K miles driven, but I'm not sure that's true... Anyway, I don't see cars going to 1/10 even in wildly optimistic (pessimistic?) scenarios. :) I'm not talking about possibility that something else replaces the car concept way long term.

 

I think fleet owners will take better care of their fleets than private owners do, and will be much more concerned about the longevity of the vehicles they purchase than private owners now are (look how many people are still buying GM vehicles ;)).  Also if most are electric cars with less maintenance required and better built for the requirements of the industrial fleets, I don't think it would be a stretch for a vehicle to last 600K-1M miles on average (through multiple battery replacements).    The entire market will change drastically when vehicles are a business to business product and no longer a consumer item.  Tractor trailers regularly last in excess of 1M miles today.  Also I think you overestimate the number of vehicles required on the road at any given time. Take my house, I have 3 vehicles (my son drives now as well) and they are sitting parked for the vast majority of the time 95+% I'd estimate.  You could serve the needs of 30-40 people with the 3 vehicles that just serve my family.

 

You are also correct about the average size.  You will still need to call up a truck once in awhile to carry something large or a 5 seater to go out with the family, but the vast majority of the time a car only has 1 occupant and no passengers.  Most cars on the road will resemble Smart cars rather than Range Rovers or F150s.

 

I might be a little optimistic with 1/10 or 1/100, I don't know, but I think 1/2 is way too pessimistic unless we somehow experience greater population growth than expected or autonomous cars cause people to travel a lot more.  This is something I hadn't thought about, but it could be the case.  Autonomous cars represent a much more efficient use of resources, so they will be quite a bit cheaper to utilize than owning your own vehicle is today.  Also there will be no age restrictions or reaction time requirements.  You may just pack your 10 year old in a car to grandma's house while you take a different car somewhere else.  Or you may send a car to pick up grandma who is 93 and wouldn't be able to drive herself.  A lower income family of 6 could all get in 6 different cars at the same time where now they would be lucky to afford one vehicle.

 

The market will be very different from what it is now, I'm not sure we can know exactly what it will look like, but I think all and all there will be much fewer cars needed than now.

 

 

 

[glorysk87]

You could serve the needs of 30-40 people with the 3 vehicles that just serve my family.

 

Wha? How do you figure that?

 

Maybe if you distributed the demand across the entire day. But that's not an accurate way to look at it.  Most people need transportation at roughly the same time as most other people.  Commuting to work, commuting back from work are the two main times that come to mind.  How are you supposed to spread your 3 cars across 30-40 people for a morning commute?  Simply doesn't make sense.

 

Also, you're assuming that once autonomous cars hit mainstream, everyone will want to car-share. Huge assumption that I simply don't think will be the case. I think plenty of people will still want to own their own car.

 

I also think your longevity assumptions of 600k to 1mm miles are way out of whack.

 

I think your assumptions and the conclusion you've drawn are absolutely insane.

[Spekulatius]

Admittedly, hyperbole on my part. No one suggests that we'll produce 90m EC in 2018. But Friedland's point was that disruptive technologies move very quickly. We're going to need a lot more metal, sooner than we think. Even 1 million EC cars is about 45k tonnes of CU (using 100 lbs per car). That is HubBay's Cu production last quarter. It's not nothing.

 

But Friedland's point was that disruptive technologies move very quickly.

 

They don't move quickly, if they can't.

[Picasso]

http://youtu.be/YugzVoOksXg

 

I thought the moment he had talking about his companies says a lot about his resolve to accomplish the next phases of these businesses.  Especially since he lost a child to SIDS.