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TedKord

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Everything posted by TedKord

  1. Since November 8 the Peso has fallen from MXN18.32:$US1 to MXN20.84:$US1 or 13.75%. Since 2013 it has almost been cut in half. I'm not much of a top down economist, but wouldn't this greatly ameliorate a potential 20% border tax?
  2. Financials: VRSK, BRK/B,Y, ESGR Metals: NGD, TAHO, IVN CN, U CN, BCN LN, PE CN, ATC CN, RPM, CN, GZZ CN, NUS CN Oil Related: WPZ, MMLP, GST prf Russia: LUKOY, OGZPY Tankers: OSG, DHT, HPHT SP (ports) Other: CBI, RICK, FIT, CDK Odds and sods: BWEL, HRCR, MNPP By size with in sector. I didn't list fixed income investments, or shares of the company I work for.
  3. Whoever is elected, I don't will make a large long term difference. For all the strum und drang of the campaign, both candidates want to roll back trade and borrow heavily. Rightly or wrongly however, I do think markets will react much more violently in the short term in the event of a Trump election. I would use that opportunity to sell coal stocks and gold both of which I think will pop on the news.
  4. I'm surprised no one on this board mentioned reading the Letter to the Shareholders in the Annual Report (not in the 10-K). Especially for companies I don't own, it's a very quick way to get a feel of what is important to the company, especially in regards to new projects, which are hard to fit into 10-Ks and Qs. Unfortunately, you need to read 10-Ks and Qs fairly deeply, ESPECIALLY for small companies. NM, to name one example, filed a 20-F (the equivalent of a 10-K for a foreign issuer) on April 25 that said, on page 41, that Vale would not be performing on a contract for an iron ore port facility that NM was building. The bonds fell from 76 to 60 on the news. I, for one, would have liked a press release and a trading halt when they first learned the news.
  5. Elon Musk's Worst. Week. Ever. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/1/nasa-explosion-rocks-spacex-launch-site-in-florida/ http://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-faces-cash-squeeze-at-tesla-solarcity-1472687133
  6. Admittedly, hyperbole on my part. No one suggests that we'll produce 90m EC in 2018. But Friedland's point was that disruptive technologies move very quickly. We're going to need a lot more metal, sooner than we think. Even 1 million EC cars is about 45k tonnes of CU (using 100 lbs per car). That is HubBay's Cu production last quarter. It's not nothing.
  7. Boy, this conversation isn't going the direction I thought it would. in 2015 worldwide auto + commercial vehicle production was 90m, 2015 total worldwide Cu production was 19.1m tonnes. If every car needs an extra 100 lbs of Cu we need an additional 4m tonnes of production. Codelco, the world's largest copper producer made a little less than 2m tonnes last year. Either Telsa and the rest of the electric car makers aren't going to hit their targets on production, or we're supposed to be buying the heck out of copper and lithium miners.
  8. This is from a presentation on Ivanhoe Mines, as transcribed by Lesley Stokes of the Northern Miner. I thought it was interesting but can't think of any place to put it: "During his presentation, Friedland flipped between photos of Wall Street in 1900 and 1913. In the first, the street is populated with horse and buggies, and in the latter, it’s packed with motor vehicles. His point was to demonstrate how quickly disruptive technologies can transform demand and “change the world.” He says the era of gasoline-powered vehicles is coming to a close, and it will require a “huge amount of metal” to make the transformation. “Your typical car has 55 lb. copper, a Toyota Prius has 110 lb. copper and an electric car uses 165 lb. copper,” he said. “That’s a huge amount of metal under your feet.” Extra weight also comes from an electric vehicle’s lithium-ion batteries, which include lesser amounts of cobalt and spherical graphite. (An all-electric Tesla Model S weighs 2,108 kg, compared to a gasoline-powered V6 Toyota Camry’s curb weight of 1,551 kg.)"
  9. They can't default, The JCB has the right to print money. "Money" in a modern sense isn't tethered to anything. Boy, I really am dragging this board into gold buggy whining. State owned industry, devalued currency, prominent American politicians bemoaning free trade, last time this sort of thing was going on my grandfather had to cross the Atlantic to sort it out.
  10. Did anyone see this article the other day? I didn't know that the JCB had been buying this much equity: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-14/the-tokyo-whale-s-unstoppable-rise-to-shareholder-no-1-in-japan The article focuses on the reduced float in the market, but I'd be more worried about corporate governance. I worry that once the central bank has so much control it will be hard for elected officials not to meddle with the companies. It will be hard to let go. What's also worrisome is that the Japanese didn't vote for this, nor did they lose a war. This is just happening without a lot of public discussion. I realize that this kind of rant probably belongs on a gold bug blog rather than a value investing message board but I think this is pretty important. I'm surprised I'm not seeing more people talking about it.
  11. Barry Wigmore's book about the crash, The Crash and it's Aftermath: A History of Securities Markets in the United States 1929-1933may be what you are looking for. It covers a lot of what was going on in sectors that aren't usually covered in histories of the Great Depression, such as the Municipal Bond market. I believe it also discusses the accounting implications. Incredibly well-researched, but not easy to read. Looks crazy expensive on Amazon.
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