nwoodman Posted February 7 Posted February 7 MS recently update their Indian macro chartbook. Healthy YoY Air Passenger growth.
dartmonkey Posted February 7 Posted February 7 10 hours ago, hobbit said: Can you please explain how you get to $25 if BIAL trades at valuations comparable to other airports? Given the growth BIAL should trade 25-30x EBITDA , which puts the valuation of BIAL at 6B and valuation of FIH in excess of $43. Great question, obviously the valuation of BIAL is the central element in valuing FIH, so how much is its 64% stake worth? They just bought 10% 2 months ago for $255m, so $2.55b is a good first step in how much the whole thing is worth, if they paid a fair price. 64% of that would be $1.632b for FIH, or $12.05 per FIH share. Obviously, we hope they got a fantastic deal for that 10%, and that it is worth a lot more. For instance, FIH bought a 10% stake the previous year, at the same $2.5b valuation, which is also the price they mentioned in Sept 2021. And in last year's AR they acknowledge that this valuation is conservative: The valuation of Fairfax India’s 64% interest in BIAL increased to $1.6 billion in 2023 from $1.2 billion in 2022, implying an equity value of approximately $2.5 billion for the whole company. Excluding cash flows from the 460 acres in Airport City, BIAL is carried on our books at 9.5 times normalized free cash flow, which we consider to be conservative. Bangalore is one of the fastest growing cities in the world and air passenger traffic in India is expected to have robust growth with increasing business and leisure travel, and the improvement in air connectivity to tier II cities. The valuation is supported by future cash flow estimates driven by the growth in capacity, non-aero revenue and real estate monetization plans described above, but does not reflect apparent market interest. Given the fact that they still wanted to buy that last 10% from Siemens, they have probably been lowballing the price with this $2.5b number. Also, in the same report, they use VERY aggressive discount rates to get this number, and VERY conservative EBITDA growth rates: At December 31,2023 the company estimated the fair value of its investment in BIAL using a discounted cash flow analysis for its three business units based on multi-year free cash flow forecasts with assumed after-tax discount rates ranging from 12.4% to 16.9% and a long term growth rate of 3.5% (December 31, 2022– 12.4% to 16.1%, and 3.5%, respectively). At December 31, 2023 free cash flow forecasts were based on EBITDA estimates derived from financial information for two of BIAL’s business units prepared in the second quarter of 2023 and for one business unit, the fourth quarter of 2022 (December 31, 2022– second quarter of 2022 for two business units and fourth quarter of 2022 for one business unit) by BIAL’s management. What EBITDA multiple is appropriate, for a rough valuation? A $2.5b valuation for BIAL implies a multiple of about 12. European multiples in recent years have been about 16 ( https://airport-world.com/buying-into-airports/ ), but that is in a region with much slower growth than what we are seeing in India. Given recent growth rates, far in excess of the 3.5% that FIH has been using in its accounting, 25-30 may be closer to the real fair value than 12, and 30x would give us a $6b for BIAL, or $28.35 per FIH share. But I would love to hear how you and others go about putting a number on FIH's crown jewel.
gfp Posted February 7 Posted February 7 It is important to remember when we are translating all these Indian asset values back to US dollars that there is also the possibility to leak some value on the currency
LC Posted February 7 Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, gfp said: It is important to remember when we are translating all these Indian asset values back to US dollars that there is also the possibility to leak some value on the currency Same with all foreign $ generating businesses - my napkin math is to discount the business' growth rate by some estimate of forex leakage. So if BIAL growing 10% PA and the rupee devalues vs the dollar call it 5% PA, I just use a 9.5% growth rate. I try and be conservative with the forex rate and generally look at least a 5 year window to estimate the forex leakage, below is USD INR :
hobbit Posted February 8 Posted February 8 15 hours ago, dartmonkey said: Great question, obviously the valuation of BIAL is the central element in valuing FIH, so how much is its 64% stake worth? They just bought 10% 2 months ago for $255m, so $2.55b is a good first step in how much the whole thing is worth, if they paid a fair price. 64% of that would be $1.632b for FIH, or $12.05 per FIH share. Obviously, we hope they got a fantastic deal for that 10%, and that it is worth a lot more. For instance, FIH bought a 10% stake the previous year, at the same $2.5b valuation, which is also the price they mentioned in Sept 2021. And in last year's AR they acknowledge that this valuation is conservative: The valuation of Fairfax India’s 64% interest in BIAL increased to $1.6 billion in 2023 from $1.2 billion in 2022, implying an equity value of approximately $2.5 billion for the whole company. Excluding cash flows from the 460 acres in Airport City, BIAL is carried on our books at 9.5 times normalized free cash flow, which we consider to be conservative. Bangalore is one of the fastest growing cities in the world and air passenger traffic in India is expected to have robust growth with increasing business and leisure travel, and the improvement in air connectivity to tier II cities. The valuation is supported by future cash flow estimates driven by the growth in capacity, non-aero revenue and real estate monetization plans described above, but does not reflect apparent market interest. Given the fact that they still wanted to buy that last 10% from Siemens, they have probably been lowballing the price with this $2.5b number. Also, in the same report, they use VERY aggressive discount rates to get this number, and VERY conservative EBITDA growth rates: At December 31,2023 the company estimated the fair value of its investment in BIAL using a discounted cash flow analysis for its three business units based on multi-year free cash flow forecasts with assumed after-tax discount rates ranging from 12.4% to 16.9% and a long term growth rate of 3.5% (December 31, 2022– 12.4% to 16.1%, and 3.5%, respectively). At December 31, 2023 free cash flow forecasts were based on EBITDA estimates derived from financial information for two of BIAL’s business units prepared in the second quarter of 2023 and for one business unit, the fourth quarter of 2022 (December 31, 2022– second quarter of 2022 for two business units and fourth quarter of 2022 for one business unit) by BIAL’s management. What EBITDA multiple is appropriate, for a rough valuation? A $2.5b valuation for BIAL implies a multiple of about 12. European multiples in recent years have been about 16 ( https://airport-world.com/buying-into-airports/ ), but that is in a region with much slower growth than what we are seeing in India. Given recent growth rates, far in excess of the 3.5% that FIH has been using in its accounting, 25-30 may be closer to the real fair value than 12, and 30x would give us a $6b for BIAL, or $28.35 per FIH share. But I would love to hear how you and others go about putting a number on FIH's crown jewel. I have been primarily been tracking the valuation of GMR airports which is pure airport play in India in public markets. With a worse growth rate , bad balance sheet, not so good revenue share arrangement ( Delhi airport is bad, Hyderabad is as good as Bangalore ) ; it has been trading at 25-30x the operating profit. I do not see how BIAL does any worse. https://www.screener.in/company/GMRAIRPORT/consolidated/ if you go the bottom right of the page , you can go through the quarterly PPTs and conference call transcripts. I have found them quite insightful when studying BIAL.
nwoodman Posted February 8 Posted February 8 26 minutes ago, hobbit said: I have been primarily been tracking the valuation of GMR airports which is pure airport play in India in public markets. With a worse growth rate , bad balance sheet, not so good revenue share arrangement ( Delhi airport is bad, Hyderabad is as good as Bangalore ) ; it has been trading at 25-30x the operating profit. I do not see how BIAL does any worse. https://www.screener.in/company/GMRAIRPORT/consolidated/ if you go the bottom right of the page , you can go through the quarterly PPTs and conference call transcripts. I have found them quite insightful when studying BIAL. +1, I was just starting to look at them yesterday. The Indian market is a bit frothy so figured they might be a 20-30% overvalued. Based on “bullshit earnings” multiples I got the following: It is quite the range but whichever way you cut it seems undervalued on the FIH books. There has been a bit of chatter about the second airport too, so it will be fascinating to see how that evolves. Either way seems like a good margin of safety and I am sure we are looking forward to seeing what the market comes up with.
villainx Posted February 8 Posted February 8 5 hours ago, nwoodman said: There has been a bit of chatter about the second airport too can you describe the chatter? I must be misremembering something because I’m not aware of second.
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 8 Posted February 8 34 minutes ago, villainx said: can you describe the chatter? I must be misremembering something because I’m not aware of second. Lots of articles last night on the subject https://english.jagran.com/india/bengaluru-second-airport-bial-officials-back-nelamangala-and-kanakapura-road-for-location-details-bengaluru-news-10217493
nwoodman Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) 14 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Lots of articles last night on the subject https://english.jagran.com/india/bengaluru-second-airport-bial-officials-back-nelamangala-and-kanakapura-road-for-location-details-bengaluru-news-10217493 That's along the lines of what I was reading. There seems to be a political angle, with various "officials" wanting the second airport in their jurisdiction. There also appears to be a bit of confusion, as the 90 million passengers the officials are getting their knickers in a knot over are slightly less than the 100 million capacity BIAL is currently designing T2 Phase 2 and smaller T1 upgrades to accommodate by 2030. There is always a fair chance that final passenger numbers are much higher than even the 90-100m envisaged, so perhaps there is merit in a second airport. A 2008 concession agreement between Bangalore International Airport Limited (BIAL) and the government prohibits new airports within 150 km of KIA until 2033. So, it is unclear to me if this will be tested. Plans for an airport in Hosur, in Tamil Nadu (40 km from Bengaluru), face legal hurdles due to this clause. The Hosur airport would also be at Karnataka's disadvantage, which is where the upside might be that BIAL gets an inside run on developing a second airport. BIAL have certainly proven their bona fides with T2. Challenges and Next Steps (as far as I can tell) Political Consensus: Ministers lobby for sites in their constituencies (e.g., Nelamangala vs. Kanakapura), but the government insists decisions will prioritize connectivity and economic impact. Land Acquisition: Estimated cost of ₹10,000 crore for 4,400–5,000 acres. Federal Approval: After finalizing the site, Karnataka plans to submit the proposal to the AAI by mid-February 2025. Estimated Timeline: A second airport will take 7-8 years, hence the sudden flurry. If BIAL gets the gig, great; if not, I'm happy to see deliberations drag on in true Indian style. Edited February 9 by nwoodman
gfp Posted February 8 Posted February 8 My hope has been that the need for a second airport well before 2033 (based more on location and commute times / traffic than absolute terminal capacity), coupled with BIAL's 150km "noncompete" will bring Anchorage or BIAL or whatever entity it is into the development project for the second airport. If everyone is happy with the way they are operating / managing / running the current airport - and I see no reason to believe that constituents are unhappy - this coupled with the "noncompete" make them a natural fit for the 2nd concession.
nwoodman Posted February 9 Posted February 9 (edited) Some further notes on the proposed sites for the second airport attached. Some thumb-suck estimates on the new build cost too: 30-50m passengers Land $US1.2bn Airport Construction $2.5bn Total ~$3.7bn Perhaps I need to rethink my lower bound $4bn valuation on KIA Bengalarus second airport: Nelamangala and Kanakpura Rd emerge as top choices (Hindustani Times) "To accelerate the project, the state government is considering inviting Bangalore International Airport Limited (BIAL) to spearhead the development, the report added. This move could help navigate the non-compete clause that restricts the construction of another airport until 2033. Officials believe BIAL, which successfully operates KIA, would be well-equipped to take on the new project." Why is Karnataka racing to finalise its 2nd airport site in Bengalaru? A neighbour is in the fight (The Print) But building the second airport also has its challenges. In its concession agreement signed with the Union government on 5 July2004, BIAL ensured that it remains the sole airport in Bengaluru, at least until 2033. “No new or existing airport shall be permitted by GoI to be developed as, or improved or upgraded into, an International Airport within an aerial distance of 150 km of the airport before the 25th anniversary of the Airport Opening Date,” according to the concession agreement. The only concession is for the development of Mysuru and Hassan airport. The new proposal by Karnataka is likely to complicate matters. “We are exploring if we can give the contract to build the airport to BIAL itself. In this way, they can waive off the non-compete clause,” the official cited above said. As of January 2024, Fairfax has invested approximately $7 billion in the country. Watsa stated, “In the next five years, we are looking at doubling that. We got a few projects already that we’re working on.” Indeed! Notes on Proposed Sites for Bengaluru’s Second Airport.pdf Edited February 9 by nwoodman
Txvestor Posted February 9 Posted February 9 On 2/6/2025 at 5:43 PM, dartmonkey said: Yes, that would be a very Buffettonian way of thinking about it, and I think it's the right way. Not sure about the $9.50 as baseline, but since the 50c listing costs would represent a one-time cost of setting up the company I guess that makes sense as a baseline. And if you put BIAL at a price that compares with other airports, I think you get to $25/share pretty easily, which would represent (25/9.5)^(1/10)-1= 10% annual return. To get to 15%, you would need intrinsic value to be over $38 (as 9.5*1.15^10=38.43), which is maybe a bit of a stretch, but by no means impossible. So there's probably still a margin of safety with a $19 share price. Interesting that the ground up replacement cost of an airport like KIA is like $6.5B. Even if we don't quite get to the Sydney airport valuations, it seems to me that a 12-15B valuation is on the cards within a 5yr time frame. 2.5B valuation at which they bought 10% recently from Siemens sure does seem like a bargain basement price.
This2ShallPass Posted February 9 Posted February 9 16 hours ago, Txvestor said: Interesting that the ground up replacement cost of an airport like KIA is like $6.5B. Even if we don't quite get to the Sydney airport valuations, it seems to me that a 12-15B valuation is on the cards within a 5yr time frame. 2.5B valuation at which they bought 10% recently from Siemens sure does seem like a bargain basement price. Siemens knows all this, why did they agree to then sell at such a price. The only reason I could think of is it's a smaller non controlling share and realizing the actual value could take few years..
nwoodman Posted February 9 Posted February 9 28 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said: Siemens knows all this, why did they agree to then sell at such a price. The only reason I could think of is it's a smaller non controlling share and realizing the actual value could take few years.. I wonder if it is also a cleaner arrangement to be out of BIAL if they intend to bid on the 2nd airport.
Eng12345 Posted February 10 Posted February 10 On 2/9/2025 at 3:57 PM, This2ShallPass said: Siemens knows all this, why did they agree to then sell at such a price. The only reason I could think of is it's a smaller non controlling share and realizing the actual value could take few years.. 250 mm or even 500 mm is such a small drop in the bucket to Siemens. Siemens has been on a long road to simplify their operations and I'm sure this is just one portion of this.
nwoodman Posted February 13 Posted February 13 (edited) A few articles floating around about the introduction of Aerial View Display (AVD) at KIA. Some notes attached (geeking out) https://www.indianeagle.com/traveldiary/bengaluru-international-airport-aerial-view/ This is far more than just some CCTVs strung around the place. The productivity and safety gains make it a no-brainer, but from my reading, the primary headache is dealing with an individual airport's legacy IT backbone. While there are plans, only 5% of airports globally have made the leap. The fact that BIAL has completed a successful implementation shows class on many levels. I like this asset more and more and you can't help but think it can only further their case for the second airport. From the notes AVD Primer - BIAL.pdf Edited February 13 by nwoodman
Haryana Posted February 13 Posted February 13 I was curious how Atlanta could be the world's busiest airport but it really is https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/atlanta-airport-worlds-busiest-why/index.html
Haryana Posted February 13 Posted February 13 Bangalore is far from being a very busy airport in India yet as I have been observing on https://www.flightradar24.com Delhi airport is far more busy.
dartmonkey Posted February 13 Posted February 13 that’s great, I was really looking forward to those Q3 earnings!
gfp Posted February 13 Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, dartmonkey said: that’s great, I was really looking forward to those Q3 earnings! oops! posted the wrong press release!
gfp Posted February 13 Posted February 13 https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/13/3026350/0/en/Fairfax-India-Holdings-Corporation-Financial-Results-for-the-Year-Ended-December-31-2024.html
This2ShallPass Posted February 14 Posted February 14 10 hours ago, gfp said: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/13/3026350/0/en/Fairfax-India-Holdings-Corporation-Financial-Results-for-the-Year-Ended-December-31-2024.html Meh report, only $55m in unrealized gains. Outside of BIAL, there's no reason to own this (bunch of smaller companies that won't move the needle and Sanmar seems like an albatross, only negatives so far). "At December 31, 2024 the company's book value per share decreased 4.1% to $20.96 from $21.85" The discount really closed to <10%. Seems like buying ahead of BIAL IPO, maybe an announcement is coming (it's about time)?
nwoodman Posted February 14 Posted February 14 (edited) 3 hours ago, This2ShallPass said: Meh report, only $55m in unrealized gains. Outside of BIAL, there's no reason to own this (bunch of smaller companies that won't move the needle and Sanmar seems like an albatross, only negatives so far). "At December 31, 2024 the company's book value per share decreased 4.1% to $20.96 from $21.85" The discount really closed to <10%. Seems like buying ahead of BIAL IPO, maybe an announcement is coming (it's about time)? Don’t disagree but the thesis is the airport. Sanmar is going to be a drag for the next year but should start working from 2026 onwards. Edited February 14 by nwoodman
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 14 Posted February 14 8 hours ago, This2ShallPass said: Meh report, only $55m in unrealized gains. Outside of BIAL, there's no reason to own this (bunch of smaller companies that won't move the needle and Sanmar seems like an albatross, only negatives so far). "At December 31, 2024 the company's book value per share decreased 4.1% to $20.96 from $21.85" The discount really closed to <10%. Seems like buying ahead of BIAL IPO, maybe an announcement is coming (it's about time)? BIAL IPO and* IDBI bid We'll see how those evolve but are the only two things that really have the potential to move the needle here.
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