Fairfax India new issue

[nwoodman]

11 minutes ago, Haryana said:

 

Right, this is actually their advantage over the rival bid by Kotak Mahindra. They can easily let go of CSB name but Kotak cannot because they are  already a major national iconic brand. 

 

Good point, naming continuity seems to be a high priority, along with “everyone keeps their jobs” for three years.  From my reading I think Kotak is going to walk.  
 

Do we know anything about NBD Emirates? I didn’t know they were in the running until last week.

[MMM20]

On 8/6/2024 at 12:27 PM, Madpawn said:

With FIH selling at 35% discount to BV, I’m surprised to not see more excitement on this forum. Am I being over optimistic?

 

I just added for the first time since Sept 2020. I'm not a trader and I'd let it sit there for ~4 years = ~17%+ CAGR and seemingly cheaper nowadays. I still own ~10x as much OG FFH but I love the setup in this one too now.

 

 

Edited August 9 by MMM20

[Thrifty3000]

On 7/2/2024 at 10:41 AM, dartmonkey said:

The recovery of IIFL Finance continues.

 

To recap, they got into some regulatory trouble in March as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) asked IIFL FInance to stop sanctioning or disbursing gold loans after raising concerns about the company's gold loan portfolio. The share price dropped from about 600 to close to 300, and IIFL issued shares (at 300 INR) and debt, FIH participating in both. FIH now owns 15.1% of the firm, and with shares at 517.60 at the June 30 close, well up from 340.10 at the end of Q1 and 2/3 of the way back to the 600 region.

 

For FIH, the impact on Q2 results should be significant, as this represents a $137m increase in this mark-to-market stake, reversing most of the $178m Q1 loss, for a gain of almost exactly $1 per FIH share.

 

Most of FIH's book value is in the Bangalore Airport, and there are other private investments like Sanmar Chemical, 7 Islands Shipping and Maxop Engineering. But looking at the five big public investments, worth about a third of FIH's total book value, they seem to have all gone in the right direction. Ignoring USD:INR (which stayed at exactly 83.7), FIH's 5 biggest public investments were up 30% in total:

 

 

 

Q2 report was August 3rd last year, so I guess we'll know in about 4 weeks, but it looks like results should be dramatically better than Q1.

 

 

 

IIFL getting caught up in another scandal. This time it involves the chairperson of SEBI. Too much corruption…

 

https://hindenburgresearch.com/sebi-chairperson/

[Haryana]

32 minutes ago, Thrifty3000 said:

IIFL getting caught up in another scandal. This time it involves the chairperson of SEBI. Too much corruption…

 

https://hindenburgresearch.com/sebi-chairperson/

 

This appears limited to IIFL Wealth entity which is much smaller and was separated out of the main IIFL Finance.

 

[Gamma78]

had written soemthing but then realised the article was a decade old. 

Edited August 11 by Gamma78

[glider3834]

On 8/11/2024 at 5:12 AM, Thrifty3000 said:

IIFL getting caught up in another scandal. This time it involves the chairperson of SEBI. Too much corruption…

 

https://hindenburgresearch.com/sebi-chairperson/

https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/no-investments-in-adani-firms-sebi-chair-not-involved-in-fund-s-ops-iifl-124081100293_1.html

[SafetyinNumbers]

19 minutes ago, glider3834 said:

https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/no-investments-in-adani-firms-sebi-chair-not-involved-in-fund-s-ops-iifl-124081100293_1.html

Also FFH fully monetized the position in 360 Wealth in May 2023. 

[Thrifty3000]

2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Also FFH fully monetized the position in 360 Wealth in May 2023. 

[Haryana]

IIFL Finance was down a little on Monday after the Hindenburg short report but Fairfax India was up.

 

Not going much lower than 14 on scary news. 

 

Looks like a MOAB.

 

Not the American kind of MOAB - Mother Of All Bombs. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-the-mother-of-all-bombs-that-the-u-s-just-dropped-on-afghanistan/

 

Fairfax India kind of MOAB - Mother Of All Bottoms.

 

[gfp]

I hadn't checked in on IIFL Securities in a little while - was surprised to see the chart

[mananainvesting]

BIA Tailwinds

 

[ourkid8]

Fairfax India to Acquire 65% of Global Aluminium Private Limited
 

https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/press-releases/fairfax-india-to-acquire-65-of-global-aluminium-private-limited-2024-09-06/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Fri+Sep+06+2024&utm_campaign=Fairfax+India+to+Acquire+65+of+Global+Aluminium+Private+Limited
 

 

[Junior R]

39 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

Fairfax India to Acquire 65% of Global Aluminium Private Limited
 

https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/press-releases/fairfax-india-to-acquire-65-of-global-aluminium-private-limited-2024-09-06/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Fri+Sep+06+2024&utm_campaign=Fairfax+India+to+Acquire+65+of+Global+Aluminium+Private+Limited
 

 

good to see them adding more to portfolio ...Need the IPO to close the gap to book value

[This2ShallPass]

On 9/6/2024 at 2:59 PM, Junior R said:

good to see them adding more to portfolio ...Need the IPO to close the gap to book value

Bit of a headscratcher when they're in the bidding for IDBI. Last 3 companies they bought are small and industries that have very small growth rate. Then you have a portfolio dominated by a huge BIAL position and going after another even larger buy w IDBI. Both are multi billion positions and last 3 buys combined for <$150M.

 

What's their strategy? Are they going big or small? Do they want to be in industries that are seeing a boom in India or slow traditional ones?

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

4 hours ago, This2ShallPass said:

Bit of a headscratcher when they're in the bidding for IDBI. Last 3 companies they bought are small and industries that have very small growth rate. Then you have a portfolio dominated by a huge BIAL position and going after another even larger buy w IDBI. Both are multi billion positions and last 3 buys combined for <$150M.

 

What's their strategy? Are they going big or small? Do they want to be in industries that are seeing a boom in India or slow traditional ones?

 

Can you outline the growth rates for the last three acquisitions?

[This2ShallPass]

On 5/4/2024 at 1:07 PM, This2ShallPass said:

Terrible quarter - public equities down 25% and private investments down 6% when Sensex was up 2%. Silver lining, discount is closing. Not exactly the way you want it to happen by BV going down 10% Also, their private investment valuations seem pretty conservative, so less risk of a downside surprise there.

 

IIFL finance involved in something fraud related. they're of course downplaying it but getting banned by the regulator is a clear sign. Not sure why Fairfax doubled down by providing line of credit.

 

Bottom 6 positions all worth only 10% of pf ($270M total, equal to Sanmar). They're all slow growers / bad industries - discount rate ranging from 13 to 28% and growth rates 1.5-5%. Investment thesis on these unclear, just distraction for management.

 

I reduced my position by 30% early this year. BIAL setup is great, I'm waiting for Anchorage IPO to move out of Fairfax India fully. 

 

"Bottom 6 positions all worth only 10% of pf ($270M total, equal to Sanmar). They're all slow growers / bad industries - discount rate ranging from 13 to 28% and growth rates 1.5-5%."

 

From their last quarterly report @SafetyinNumbers.

 

Btw, can you explain what their strategy is when they buy a $50M company one year and going for $5B next year?

 

[ICUMD]

Decided to entirely liquidate my large position in Fairfax India. While I think Bial is a great opportunity, their inability to execute an IPO over so many years suggests they are bogged down in burocracy.  I suspect they have a lot of competition for quality assets. 

 

Management execution has been poor.

Saw better opportunity elsewhere.

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

8 hours ago, This2ShallPass said:

"Bottom 6 positions all worth only 10% of pf ($270M total, equal to Sanmar). They're all slow growers / bad industries - discount rate ranging from 13 to 28% and growth rates 1.5-5%."

 

From their last quarterly report @SafetyinNumbers.

 

Btw, can you explain what their strategy is when they buy a $50M company one year and going for $5B next year?

 

Probably similar to my strategy. I have 40%+ position in a $25b company and but still own ~2-5% positions in three <$50m companies.  I think they just try to buy stuff at a big discount to intrinsic value. It’s a novel concept. 
 

With respect to the first part of the comment on slow growers/bad industries is misguided in my opinion. The high discount rate shows these are fast growers over the forecast period and the valuations are conservative assuming continued depreciation in the rupee (we might actually get appreciation). The terminal growth rate has to be equal to or less than nominal GDP growth otherwise whatever company being model becomes the entire economy over enough time.

 

[dartmonkey]

7 hours ago, ICUMD said:

While I think Bial is a great opportunity, their inability to execute an IPO over so many years suggests they are bogged down in burocracy.  I suspect they have a lot of competition for quality assets. 

 

Management execution has been poor.

It sure has been disappointing so far, but it seems like a lot could go right. Public investments up 12% since June 30, and with BIAL 2/3 of the private investments, it's hard to know exactly what value is being created but air traffic is up, the IPO will arrive some day and there is a lot of upside. I think their record for investments that have been monetized is actually pretty good, but it has been a test of our patience, that's for sure.

Edited yesterday at 04:59 PM by dartmonkey

[Junior R]

I think the IPO is due to some back and forth with government as stated on the call...Eventually will get sorted out and if it trades 10%+ above value on balance sheet it should give a good gain

[hardcorevalue]

I think the issue is this is a bit like the line about Brazil. It has a bright future and always will.

 

We are approaching a decade of no returns on the stock and the fees keep accruing. 

 

Fairfax’s balance sheet is greatly improved from years ago and they already own so much I wonder if they will just a decent multiple of book value and take it out. 

 

Wouldn’t bet on that though. 

[ICUMD]

Struggled for years with this one.

Value is locked in Fairfax India for sure. 

 

Fairfax always realises value based on their book value calculation.

 

Investors will possibly realize value based on speculative events. 

 

That makes this at best a speculative investment in my books. 

 

Therefore my rationale to move on.

I still like that airport and hope to visit it one day.

[Haryana]

A few points with references to the recent 2-part post by @Viking :

 

1.

"When should an investor sell an investment?
According to Peter Lynch, a pretty smart guy, an investor should sell an investment when the story / fundamentals take a turn for the worse. Pretty simple. "
FIH Implication: The India story / fundamentals remain the same as before and actually improving.

 

2.

"Who got Fairfax the most wrong? The haters. Their hate stopped them from being rational. It stopped them from looking at the company objectively. "
FIH Implication: Fairfax India is irrationally hated at the moment like Fairfax was hated 3 - 4 years ago.

 

3.

"The three most important words in investing are margin of safety.” Warren Buffett
“It is extraordinary to me that the idea of buying dollar bills for 40 cents takes immediately with people or doesn't take at all.” Warren Buffett
FIH Implication: FIH market price might be just about 40% of its instrinsic value with future growth rate.

 

4.

“Be patient. The stocks that have been most rewarding to me have made their greatest gains in the third or fourth year I owned them. A few took ten years.” Peter Lynch
FIH Implication: This is where the hard work comes into play as selling could be a big emotional relief.

 

[Haryana]

1 hour ago, hardcorevalue said:

...

We are approaching a decade of no returns on the stock and the fees keep accruing. 

...

 

The fees accrue for a maximum of 3 years and therefore is mostly paid off.

 

Within each 3-year period, those fees are already accounted in book value.

 

Actually, it is the book value that keeps on accruing and fee is already paid.

 

[Viking]

2 hours ago, ICUMD said:

Struggled for years with this one.

Value is locked in Fairfax India for sure. 

 

Fairfax always realises value based on their book value calculation.

 

Investors will possibly realize value based on speculative events. 

 

That makes this at best a speculative investment in my books. 

 

Therefore my rationale to move on.

I still like that airport and hope to visit it one day.

@ICUMD At the end of the day we need to be as rational as possible. If your analysis told you it was the time sell and move on then that is the right decision for you. 
 

Here is my take on Fairfax India. I think the stock is cheap. I also think there is a good chance that significant ‘hidden’ value will be realized when the BIAL IPO happens. 
 

The issue with Fairfax India is when the value will be realized by Fairfax India and Fairfax. Not is the value actually there. 
 

As a result, i view Fairfax India not as a speculation but primarily as a timing play. For patient investors, the risk/reward looks pretty attractive.
 

Do I own Fairfax India shares today? No. That is primarily because I am way overweight Fairfax. However, i have owned Fairfax India many times in the past as a short term trade. I usually have kept my position size modest.

—————

The key is what is the value of the collection of assets that Fairfax India owns? And what has it done over the past 5 years? I think BIAL is the real deal.
 

Coiled springs usually (eventually) get released. 

Edited yesterday at 07:15 PM by Viking