Mohnish Pabrai (Dalal Street) 13F HR

[cmlber]

Does anyone have any insights into why Mohnish didn't add more Horeshead in the third quarter?  I mean if he liked the stock at $8, you would think he would love it at 30% of that price?  It just doesn't make sense to me.  He bought at $8 thinking it was worth at least $16-$20 which would be a 2-2.5X. At around $3 This becomes a 5-7X.  Am I missing something perfectly obvious?

 

I am confused too because he was buying http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getowner&CIK=0001549575

He was buying in July and September but this does not seem to be reflected on the 13F. Anyone have any insight on why this looks this way??

 

My guess is just different reporting entities..  The Form 4 includes all shares controlled by Pabrai (i.e. includes the insurance sub Dhandho holdings, and other accrs).  The 13F includes only Dalal Street.

 

He has a rule that he has communicated to his investors that he won't invest more than 10% of the partnerships capital at original cost basis in any one security.  He mentioned this in response to one of the questions he got at the annual meeting in Chicago.  So I don't believe he can buy more without breaking that rule.

[KCLarkin]

Oh I thought today was the deadline, my mistake.

It's up. Sold down BAC, added big to Brk, Cimpress, MSC and Dnow

 

There are two threads for Arlington. This is the most popular:

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/the-400-man!/210/

 

Might want to move the conversation over there to avoid confusion.

[Guest notorious546]

Pabrai bought some Seritage Growth Properties. Talk about cloning eh. Follows Buffett right in.

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1549575/000154957516000015/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml

[educatedidiot]

Pabrai just filed his 13-F and it looks like he sold almost all of that Seritage Growth Properties: http://www.rocketfinancial.com/Holdings.aspx?fID=228541

[CorpRaider]

Yeah, saw something about that on barron's.  I think he said SHLD was going downhill faster than he thought so he dumped it.

[sjh]

Current 13F is out, he sold some Alphabet and AerCap.

 

http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=PI

[educatedidiot]

Interesting that Mohnish sold some AerCap.  He had been steadily accumulating shares of AER for several quarters:

http://www.rocketfinancial.com/OwnHist.aspx?sID=2510&fID=228541

 

That said, the stock price has also been trending higher, so perhaps it was starting to get close to his estimate of intrinsic value.

[sjh]

He probably sees better opportunities in his Indian stocks, which unfortunately don't get reported in the 13F.

[rohitc99]

MUMBAI: US-based investor Mohnish Pabrai's funds bought 64.18 lakh shares or 2.73% stake in rice exporter KRBL, bulk deal data on the BSE showed.

 

 

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/mohnish-pabrais-funds-buy-2-7-stake-in-krbl/articleshow/62889030.cms?from=mdr

 

 

[Lakesider]

I notice that Guy Spier (http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=aq) has picked up some Teekay Offshore Partners.

 

I suspect this could be a Pabrai pick shared with Guy which Mohnish hasn't had to file for. He mentioned finding a bargain in the shipping industry in one of his lectures on his blog.

[racemize]

I notice that Guy Spier (http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=aq) has picked up some Teekay Offshore Partners.

 

I suspect this could be a Pabrai pick shared with Guy which Mohnish hasn't had to file for. He mentioned finding a bargain in the shipping industry in one of his lectures on his blog.

 

Or he just picked it up from Brookfield Business partners.  That's where I found it.

[chrispy]

Agree with Racemize.  Brookfield made the profitable qualities of Teekay very clear.

[crastogi]

MUMBAI: US-based investor Mohnish Pabrai's funds bought 64.18 lakh shares or 2.73% stake in rice exporter KRBL, bulk deal data on the BSE showed

 

 

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/mohnish-pabrais-funds-buy-2-7-stake-in-krbl/articleshow/62889030.cms?from=mdr

 

So Rohit, have you analyzed this?  My preliminary analysis indicates a 12-15% ann return for the next 5 years.  Better than most opportunities in US but not a slam dunk that Pabrai looks for.  Your thoughts?

 

[Lakesider]

Not going to help with the valuation here but...

 

I think Mohnish has identified that KRBL must have a significant moat. Maybe its the economies of scale when storing/aging the rice or that is does its own seed distribution... maybe its something else. Looks like KRBL has managed to maintain its great margins and premium export price in comparison to its competitors. They are the largest producer domestically with an increasing market share of the oligopoly. From some quick google searches it looks like the market for basmati rice is growing internationally with India being the major producer.

 

I think Mohnish would like the idea of selling rice in India, especially when KRBL seems so dominant in the market. 

 

 

[crastogi]

Thanks for the comment. 

 

I agree they are dominant and have had sustained excellent ROE/ROC.  And that the market for Basmati is growing.  And also that there is a trend in India to migrate from buying from Bulk packaged generic to branded.  All these are trends are tailwinds for them. 

 

However, the management seems promotional.  And at a 30 PE, the growth story has to be really good get decent returns. 

 

Actually as an aside, I know Pabrai is bullish on Indian stocks, but the valuations in general seem to be high in India, especially given that LT bonds yields are north of 7%. 

 

 

[rohitc99]

MUMBAI: US-based investor Mohnish Pabrai's funds bought 64.18 lakh shares or 2.73% stake in rice exporter KRBL, bulk deal data on the BSE showed

 

 

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/mohnish-pabrais-funds-buy-2-7-stake-in-krbl/articleshow/62889030.cms?from=mdr

 

So Rohit, have you analyzed this?  My preliminary analysis indicates a 12-15% ann return for the next 5 years.  Better than most opportunities in US but not a slam dunk that Pabrai looks for.  Your thoughts?

 

yes, i had a looked at it and on the face of it the brand looks good, distribution and sourcing is nearly impossible to replicate by a new competitor. company for sure enjoys a premium over other brands, but that may not say much considering that the pricing power for this product is limited.

the average operating margin is around 15-17% with the recent spike to 24% mainly from the gains the company is making due to low inventory cost. i am not sure how sustainable that is ..if we normalize the earnings, company is selling @ 40 times earnings. looks pricey.

my guess is mohnish is playing the long game ..stock goes sideways for sometime and then tracks earnings. your estimate looks about right to me

[investmd]

Pabrai has previously laid out metrics for investments. He wants to buy mispriced assets. I believe he said the expectations for the first 50% of portfolio cash deployed is 2x return in about 3-5years. The next 25% of cash deployed has a higher expected net return and so on till the last 10% of cash may be for potential 10 baggers. Of course, all the purchases with these assumptions won't all go according to plan and thus when one combines the winners with the picks that lost money, his returns "average" over long periods of time 15%/yr.

 

As he is quite "scientific" in his investment process (extensive check list), I'd be shocked if he entered into a new position with a hope of "only" 10-15% annual return. Do not think that would interest him in the least. He makes his 15%/yr by picking mulitbaggers (Fiat, Rain) and forgetting about the losers (Horshead Holdings).

 

 

[crastogi]

Pabrai has previously laid out metrics for investments. He wants to buy mispriced assets. I believe he said the expectations for the first 50% of portfolio cash deployed is 2x return in about 3-5years. The next 25% of cash deployed has a higher expected net return and so on till the last 10% of cash may be for potential 10 baggers. Of course, all the purchases with these assumptions won't all go according to plan and thus when one combines the winners with the picks that lost money, his returns "average" over long periods of time 15%/yr.

 

As he is quite "scientific" in his investment process (extensive check list), I'd be shocked if he entered into a new position with a hope of "only" 10-15% annual return. Do not think that would interest him in the least. He makes his 15%/yr by picking mulitbaggers (Fiat, Rain) and forgetting about the losers (Horshead Holdings).

 

That's right, Investmd.  And that's why i am baffled.  BTW 15% for 5 years is a 2X.  However, he is not without some spectacular blowups.  Delta financial, compucredit, etc.  Clearly after spending a week on this, I cannot come up with a compelling reason.  I was hoping someone here could point me in the right direction. 

[value]

Margins r high due to inventory gains, premierization of product portfolio, operating leverage and product positioning/marketing (the brand is using palovian to operand conditioning.. No one else is moving in that direction, as no money/vision in industry + this is cumulative affect of last 2 decades of advertising spend).  And they can charge higher due to trust built up with consumer in last 2 decades, when other compititors played for short term gains by mixing inferior product with basmati.

 

Basmati is indo gangetic story with GI, so can't be replicated anywhere.

 

The supply chain is impossible to replicate. HUL, marico, adani, Cargill etc failed to establish the supply chain in this biz. Its simple but not easy.

 

They can do 15% cagr in volumes and 10% cagr in prices IMO. U can check historical information and do the maths, considering that it's almost monopoly situation now.

 

Moreover, they r sweeting their brands by riding other expensive products like quinoa, Chia etc, sourced cheaply from India and selling abroad.. Again, no compitition in this supply chain (India to mid east) . India itself is emerging as premium marketplace for expensive foods. . This business may equate core biz profits easily in next 5y IMO.

 

Hope it helps

[educatedidiot]

Pabrai continues to sell his US holdings.  He sold out of Alphabet, Southwest Airlines, and AerCap.  No change to his Fiat or Ferrari positions though.  I'm guessing he's raising cash for some of his international investments.

http://www.rocketfinancial.com/Holdings.aspx?id=228541&fC=1

[Lakesider]

I saw Einhorn is a heavy seller of aercap too. I wonder if they have seen oil rise as an increase in risk.

 

 

[investmd]

MUMBAI: US-based investor Mohnish Pabrai's funds bought 64.18 lakh shares or 2.73% stake in rice exporter KRBL, bulk deal data on the BSE showed

 

 

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/mohnish-pabrais-funds-buy-2-7-stake-in-krbl/articleshow/62889030.cms?from=mdr

 

 

So Rohit, have you analyzed this?  My preliminary analysis indicates a 12-15% ann return for the next 5 years.  Better than most opportunities in US but not a slam dunk that Pabrai looks for.  Your thoughts?

 

yes, i had a looked at it and on the face of it the brand looks good, distribution and sourcing is nearly impossible to replicate by a new competitor. company for sure enjoys a premium over other brands, but that may not say much considering that the pricing power for this product is limited.

the average operating margin is around 15-17% with the recent spike to 24% mainly from the gains the company is making due to low inventory cost. i am not sure how sustainable that is ..if we normalize the earnings, company is selling @ 40 times earnings. looks pricey.

my guess is mohnish is playing the long game ..stock goes sideways for sometime and then tracks earnings. your estimate looks about right to me

 

Rohitcc, since this post in Feb 2018 suggesting KRBL looks pricey and wondering why Pabrai bought in, the stock is down some 40% with 20% decline yesterday. Ouch!! Any idea why the recent sharp fall?

[rohitc99]

recent fall seems to be linked to be this news - an ex- director of the company seems to be linked to a bribery scandal

 

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/ed-revives-agusta-westland-case-fresh-leads

[John Hjorth]

New Pabrai Fund : Pabrai Wagons Fund.

 

Investor Presentation : Link.

 

What do you think? 

[SongDonkey.AI]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

New Pabrai Fund : Pabrai Wagons Fund.

 

Investor Presentation : Link.

 

What do you think? 

 

I think that investment world would be a way better place if nobody would be allowed to talk about Berkshire Hathaway in their marketing materials