BG2008

Interesting. I sold out at $6.9 or so.

Added some INDT at $60

In the Snowball, Alice talked about Jack Ringwalt having second thoughts and was driving around trying to delay closing. Buffet, being the ever folksy grandpa, paints the story as Ringwalt driving around looking for parking spots with time left. I think it was described as every few years, Jack "gets in heat" and considers selling the company. The Snowball is truly a great book as it was probably more true and less propaganda.

Muscleman, Thank you for bringing the Covid crisis to our attention early on. I managed to hold onto our positions but bought a lot of out-of-the money puts to hedge against our portfolio. We winded being up over 20% thanks to you. More importantly, the risk management tactic was a very nice "surprise" to my investors during March/April. Coming out of the crisis, we have gained more of their trust. If I can offer you a piece of advice is that if you see Vix trade to 80, just buy and hold your nose. It only happened once before during 08/09 in my short 15 year career. So if Vix spikes to over 80, it is just a blaring signal to buy. I hope you can benefit from this piece of advice in the future. Frankly, you can say the same for Vix of 40, or 60. But 80 is definitely a no brainer.

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Is Wall Street Journal Down for anyone? I'm using Chrome. Everything else works fine.

Gregmal's short squeeze ideas and ThePupils LEAP/Options play in Real Estate Clifford Sosin - Ashtead (Sunbelt Rental) Packers' US based Telco ideas Laughing Water Capital

Honestly, if the 2020 episode worked out like 2008/2009, you would not be having these regrets. The guys who bought Carvana at the lows might have to suffer massive dilution like the banks did in 2008/2009 because the Fed took their time to rescue the banks back then. Now you have a bunch of youngers guys running around thinking they are geniuses because they are up 100-300% in 2020. Ask yourself what does the alternative might have look like? Also you will always miss some incredible bargains during a selloff. You are not going to catch all the amazing deals or all the Pokemons. This is simply a part of life. In 2008/2009, SL Green had dropped from $150 to under $10 and I walked around all over Manhattan going door to door and looking at SL Green buildings. I couldn't buy because I did not understand how bankruptcy works and how equity can retain value in a bankruptcy. That was a 10 bagger that I missed out on. But back then I probably would have gotten a bigger ego and would have winded up doing something dumb with that money anyway. The stuff that I regret is not buying more Ashtead. Now that's a really good company with a long runway to grow. It traded as low as 10 British Pounds and is now at 40. But it will probably be another 5-10 bagger from here given 5-10 years. That's the one that I regret not buying at the low and not in bigger size. I regret not buying more Berry Global and DuPont at the low. Because I know those companies. They were existing portfolio companies that I knew were going to be 3-4x in 3-4 years. No balance sheet issues, good cashflow, etc. But I decided to diversify into a bit of growth. Frankly, I have done pretty well there as well. Now my portfolio is more diversified and the stuff that I bought are up 30-200%. Overall, I am just happy I didn't blow up and I reallocated pretty well. Clients are happy. Sure I don't have the 100% return that a few managers reported. But I also wasn't the one getting angry phone calls in March and April. The clients are genuinely happy with what I did last year. Like Jake Taylor from the Value After hours says "I'm not designed for optimization, I am designed for resiliency and survival" or something like that. Can't look at what you know today. Need to remember how you felt in the moment and don't forget that. The world in March/April was not as clear cut as it is today with vaccines that are 90% effective.

How did she dislocate his arm and leg? What technique? #Badassmom

Honestly, as someone who is finally getting a bit of traction after 7 years. Being at $3mm after 6 months is a pretty good spot. If I am totally cynical, it is probably easier to start 6 months ago with a blank slate and do 7-80% with no "through the cycle" baggage. Investors want to understand the process. Is it repeatable? If you had a value bent and was all cash and went fully invested and had some tech exposure, you can probably do 40-100% in the last 12 months if the capital were deployed during the crisis. Most people I know want to hand over money to someone who 1) isn't going to blow up 2) will compound at a much higher rate than inflation 3) actually have some sort of niche that they can take advantage of and 4) is committed to doing this craft for a long time. Those are the things that they look for. What I am saying probably won't seem important, but you will appreciate it after you try raising HNW and family office capital for 2-3 years. Good luck.

Wabuffo, I think you're pretty good with this Garret Motion stuff. So I think you are underselling yourself a bit.

Rod, Care to share your ideas? Private messages open. Anyone who's got 3 positions in RE and Infrastracture as their complete portfolio, I want to get to know.

Age and your overall net worth is important as well. People quote Buffet and Munger all the time. But you are not Buffett nor Munger. None of us are. Yes, you maybe an Autist like Roaring Kitty. But that's a special breed of special. If you are in your early 20s, have a good job and good prospect in life and have good safety net, you can probably do a few 30-50% bets. If you are in your 40s, 50s, and this is a lot of your nest egg, you probably want to be a lot more diversified. Personal story, in 2011, 2012 ish. I put 30-50% into my top ideas in my IRA. The balance was $30k or so. I was buying a cash box at 1/2 of liquidation value. That sizing really helped as I got a payout that was almost double. I did that a couple times and got my IRA into the med to high 5 figures. But once I crossed over 6 figures, something in my mind mentally changed and I realized that I need to be more diversified. I have 15 positions in my IRA now. 6 figures is real money and I am in my late 30s. So I was much more aggresive in my early 30s and now that my balance is about 8x (some contributions, not all performance) from 2011ish, I manage the IRA a lot different. I manage money for other people and it never reached the level of concentration that it did in my IRA. Ironically, it is the stuff that I size in 1-5% that tend to out perform lately. So all this talk about concentrating on your best ideas, sometimes it is good to get some "right tail" exposure to some Saasy companies that doesn't make sense using 2021 P/FCF multiples. But if you understand the business and realize that this is a "winner take all" category that could be worth 5x the current price in 5-8 years, it's not a bad portfolio allocation strategy to put 1-5% into it. I prefer 1-2%. So I have a basket of what Peter Lynch call multi-baggers that I don't necessarily have a ton of confidence in like my Griffin Realty idea. But allocating 10-20% to a basket like that is a wise way to catch some of that "right tail" return. I do think there is something about digital market places, software, and other digital native businesses that are different than traditional manufacturing that makes it different this time around. Famous last words. There are others that are much smarter than me who have evolved and developed the skills to invest in purely compounders and YOLO investments, I am not there yet. Not sure if I want to be fully there. As Robert Downey Jr said in Tropic Thunder "You never go full retard." I never go full compounder. Sometimes the stuff that you size at 2% wind up returning the same as the stuff that you size at 10% because the former is a 5 bagger the latter is a double. Nothing wrong with that outcome as your degree of confidence is likely much higher in the latter. Happy investing, good luck compounding, and may your mind be exposed to wonderful growth.

Look up Kelly Criterion. Never bet full Kelly. 1/3 is probably best. Nothing beats experience. Figure out what industry you really know. Figure out what industry has low impact if you get it wrong. If you buy a grower at 10x revenue, if it turns out you are wrong, that downside is probably pretty high. If you buy Union Pacific, you probably don't get a zero. Do some pre-mortem on what could go wrong. If you see a chance where it is a zero, then you need to size it very differently. Obvious stuff, but people get caught up in the weed. Over time, you will get better. The books are guidelines, experience helps.

Chicken legs

Jurgis, you seem like an awesome guy to have a few drinks of single malt whiskey with

BTS? The WSB boys got nothing over the BTS army. Who wins in a fight, Beyonce's Beehive or BTS army?

This action hero also ran a 4 minute mile. Legend!

BTW, I am incredibly happy with my fund admin and I hope they never change. Patke was fine until they got acquired and their DNA has changed. I am not some grumpy guy who isn't willing to pay for good services.

This is going to be a rant and I want to compare notes with other managers on here. Patke was acquired by WipFli about 2 years ago and the client experience just isn't the same anymore. They have basically increased my audit and tax fees from below $10,000 a year to about $16,000 for an US based strategy. They started nickel and diming everything. They have increased the cost for the GP tax preparation by over 100%. They are definitely pissing off this customer. They have become a bit more client unfriendly and flat out told me that I am unprofitable for them. Frankly, the guy who does my audits can't get his shit done by Aug or Sep. There has been a ton of stop and go. I suspect that they are unprofitable because the guy would work on it in March/April/May and then go away and work on it again in July/August. So I wind up in a 10 months audit hell all year around. I'm pretty much done with them. I am 99% sure I am moving over to Spicer Jeffries for 2021. Does anyone else have similar experience with them after the WipFli acquisition. At the price that they are quoting me, I am probably better off going to a Grant Thorton or someone bigger. It's been so aggravating everytime I get an engagement letter from them. Because it is a back and forth on why is this up X%? I think a 2-5% annual increase in services makes sense to be inline with inflation. But they have lost their soul and their core client base. That's fine if they want to go up market. If you guys have any other recommendations, it would be greatly appreciated to compare notes.

I guess you can call your portfolio "50% clone of BRK?" haha, JK

I don't think that is necessarily true. I think what you are seeing is rebalancing between funds and OTC put assignment. he got more shares put to him. he now owns 25% of the company, all in simple long stock form (no options/swaps). “On January 6, 2021, the Reporting Persons restructured and rebalanced its investment in the Issuer,” according to the filing On January 6, Pershing acquired shares via the obligation to purchase common shares pursuant to previously written and reported put options which expired on Jan. 6, the unwind of 3.5 million previously written and reported put options expiring in 2021, and the purchase of shares of common ctock, according to an amended 13D filing The previous 13D/A filed on June 5, 2020 showing Pershing’s 19.9% stock ownership also referenced 32.5% beneficial ownership, an amount reflecting a case where all put options were exercised Thank you guys for keeping me straight!!

Billy Boy Ackman just bought more of Howard Hughes Corp

Berry Global - Scale plastic packaging at 8x P/FCf and 8x EBITDA is very reasonable when they can borrow at 1-2% Alexanders - NYC office with 8 year lease to Bloomberg is very reasonable. Probably 50 cent dollar. INDUS - Former Griffin, is trading at NAV. But you get the optionality that the CEO and new chairman maybe able to turn this into a multi-bagger Most multi-family REITS GOOG/FB - Don't own any, but very reasonable ASPEN - Very affordable online nursing with high gross margin growing 40% topline a year trading at 3x next year revenue. Berkshire, Fairfax (Although I don't own any) Howard Hughes is probably worth $150 and trades at $80. Will like long time for market to agree with me ANGI is reasonable - It's a good call option on if they can build a market place for home repair, recommend smaller allocation 1-3% and see if it "right tail" for you Univar - About 8.5x 2022/2023 P/FCF after they fully integrate the acquisition of Nexeo There are plenty of still very cheap and reasonable stocks out there.

Laacz is a great cash/bond alternative if you don't run a fund. Since I run a fund, I decided to not want to sit around and wait for a K-1 form to be mailed to me in Mid March