BG2008

Love topics like this on CoBF. I recently bought a beach house and we are moving there in a couple months. The carry cost is less than my rent after my upstairs tenant pays me. But of course, there is that pesky down payment. :) Gregmal, how many properties do you own? Damn.

I'm telling you, young people in 30 years will call me a murder for eating meat This could very well be correct and is all the more reason to eat all you can right now. Going to a BBQ place tonite, so I am doing my part. In 30 years, Franklin's BBQ in Austin will probably be compared to some a certain German dictator that we all know. Instagram Foodie accounts will be the digital evidence room. But for now, eat up!

I'm telling you, young people in 30 years will call me a murder for eating meat

Yeah, every time we have a crisis, everyone says "plummet" "spirals out of control" "slammed". In the Queens residential rental market. We got down to about 50% rent collection in April from the chatters that I had with people. Many of the tenants are restaurant employees. But by July, they are getting close to 80-100% rent collection. Obviously, smaller # of units equals big fluctuations. But if you talk to enough people, the overall numbers tend to be meaningful. The things that worries me is the crime. Simply put, if a cute 22 year college grad is afraid to move to NYC because she feels (doesn't matter if it's true or not) unsafe, then we have a problem. The key is the perception not the actual stats. If that cute 22 year old don't want to move to NYC, then the companies have no reason to set up shop there. That's a real spiral. This is why I worry about DeBlasio. The only time that I have really seen the US Housing Market get SLAMMED was during 08/09. It really got slammed. Simply put, people could not afford the mortgage. It was ludicrous. If you have 20-30% equity in your RE and you can service the debt, you will do everything you can to hold onto it and keep chugging on. In RE, the transactions happen because either you can no longer pay your mortgage or your bank force you to sell. No one sells RE in the private market by saying "hmm, this looks a little rich, let me sell and re-deploy into some other liquid asset class. I don't mind paying cap gains and depreciation recapture as well." Depreciation Recapture is a bitch. As I have gotten older, I have come to appreciate how much inertia there is once you have kids and wife. Man, I don't make the most rational decision anymore on a purely financial basis. Rule number one, keep the Mrs happy. Rule number two, listen to the Mrs. Rule number three, pay attention to the future needs of your kids. Rule number four, don't forget these 3 rules and verbally communicate to the Mrs. that those are your top priorities. Rule number five, now you can think about what you want.

I made a thread about Robinhood crowd going "Full Retard" on Kodak This is likely what's driving this 10 bagger is a 10 bagger. Can't complain. There were some hedges that I bought going into March that I liquidated for about 10-11x. I had puts on Royal Carribean that I sold for a double. $100 strike, March expiration, paid $1 and sold for $2. Those would have been a 60-70x at its low. But I had a broad basket that was up 10-11x. Thanks for reminding me of this!!! I almost forgot about it! Attach trigger warning next. JK. I'm perfectly fine with the outcome.

Dude, he didn't let it rule his life? His wife left him and his kids talked about how distant he was growing up. I had a chance to ask Alice that Asperger question in person a couple years back, I regret not asking it. In the grand scheme of things, I owe my investing career to Buffet. Over time, I have come to really appreciate how impressive his writing and lessons are. Relative to other wealthy and successful business personalities, he's a saint. There is rumors that Larry Ellison uses his daughter's film company, which he bankrolls, to offer auditions to young ladies in exchange for you know what favors. Pure rumors. No proof. Relative to your average father making $75,000 a year that manage to spend time with their kids, he can't hold their jock straps as a father. I guess I have studied the man quite a bit that I can't help myself make these distinctions.

Dude, he didn't let it rule his life? His wife left him and his kids talked about how distant he was growing up. I'm going to agree with Stahleyp here. If you read Snowball, it is very obvious that Buffet is a subpar father. Then there's the tidbit about how he would invite people to come visit and stay with him. When people show up with their family from out of town, he wouldn't spend anytime with him. He loves showing up his intellect, especially to females. Alice talks about how his wife got jealous because he was showing off his intellect on the private jet. Buffet was a klepto in his late teens. I think one of his sons had a bit of klepto streak during his teens. Peter Buffet gives talks about growing up a Buffet. I think he really always want to carve out his own niche for his own work and not that he's Warren Buffet's son. Bill Brewster has talked about this quite a bit on Toby's podcast.

One of the checklist that I want to have in the future is "Can this name potentially go FullTard?" It is a legitimate question. If there is a tech, infrastructure, space travel, or something to hook a retail buyer base on, it's an additional feature.

Hahahahhah .... Hahahahhaha That never happens if you're a rational investor or a value investor. In my career I once got a little retard, like 10%-20% retard and I thanked the heaves for it. If I ever get full 100% retard I buy beers for the whole board. You once got a little retard or your name got a little retard? I am not looking to go retard. I want my name to go a little retard.

Frankly, I wish that some of the names that I own would go FullTard

Tendy's all around! It's FullTard Time!

Title says it? Thoughts?

Gregmal, Why don't you just tell it like it is. You bought it for the potential "Tech Lock and Pop" effect.

Pupil, what's your take on the offsetting effects of lower interest rates vs lower rent/occupancy? I feel like they wind up being a draw. Thoughts? I'm talking specifically multi-family. Heck, maybe we should hedge our MF exposure with some homebuilders as post 2009, there was a decade where young people moved into the city to work and fornicate. That huge demographics group now has kids and are likely looking to buy houses.

If anything, I think we know that the public market just can't stomach YOY declines. If you hold out 2-3 years, things tend to work out best. I generally like this asset class as there are less long term secular 4-D chess that you are playing. Sure YOY rent, occupancy, etc will look bad. But if you own stuff that has 5-6% yield. You can create your own form of share buybacks.

Can you explain this a bit. I kind of have a sense of what you mean. Still love that WWE video that you did a few years ago in which you explain the genius of Vince going over the top.

Jurgis, You can be anything you want yourself to be

Totally agree that one should not conflate value stocks with "shitcos." Just simply because something is trading at 5x P/E or 5x EV/EBITDA makes it a value stock. You could have bought most traditional retailer or one of those subscale media companies and paid that little of a multiple. I think value investors need to think about S in ESG. Sustainability. I bought a little more of companies like Univar during the selloff. I don't think chemical distribution is going away. I kept asking myself "why am I not buying something that is a 3-5x set up in a few years? Still a double in my opinion. I think if you can find stuff that grows EPS 2-4% organically a year for the next 10 years and it trades sub 10x P/FCF with a good industry back drop, you'll do pretty well.

Warren Buffet - Hulk Hogan, long career, impressive resume, universally known and the good guy. But deep down, not that great of a human being. Lex Luger Yukozuna - US Economy vs Japanese Economy 80s/early 90s John Paulson - Jake The Snake (Got it all and then blew it, really any one hit wonders) One man shop value managers - Jobbers Ben Bernanke - Vince McMahon (keep messing with rules) OPEC - The Iron Sheik Sahm Adrangi - Shawn Micahels/Razor Ramon Biglari - Jerry Lawler Mark Leonard - The Ultimate Warrior Lou Simpson - Brett Hart Ted and Todd - Million dollar man and IRS Blackrock - Andre the Giant Vanguard - The Big Show Elon Musk - Ric Flair Joel Greenblatt - Macho Man Peter Thiel - Brock Lesnar

Please don't try to tell me that there is not always something to do. John, I'm glad that you found my comment amusing. I feel like we are back in 1999 somehow. The FANG plus MSFT or whatever you call it today are really good companies. But I think there is a lot of froth in Spaceships etc. Just look at what happened to cannabis a few years ago and 3D printing. Those didn't stick and they are having their day of reckoning now. I am seeing RE companies trading at 8% cap rates for assets that should be 4-5%. Back in the late 90s, REITs were throwing off 8-9% dividend yields. But interest rates were like 6-7% back then. Now 10 year treasury is 64bps and home mortgages are 3% and sometimes sub 3%. Yet you can find some public REITs throwing off 5-8% yield. There will likely be a RE reflection trade in the next couple of years just like all the CMBS/fixed income had a huge year in 2011, 12, or 13. I don't recall. But broadly, that strategy category did 30-40% in one year.

As much as a $700 cordless Dyson Torque

Great observation. I guess when you make money on momentum, momo begets more momo. So more monkeys running the same strategy actually leads to better performance and can allow the monkeys to get really wealthy. I guess when it doesn't work, it unravels pretty quickly as well. Even then it's hard to do. I'll believe the stories when all of Robinhoodville shows their P&L. I'm getting the feeling that you mostly hear from the moneys that got 40 heads in a row but don't hear so much from the monkeys that tried to get 40 heads in a row but it came in tails on the 1st try. Obviously, this post is tongue in cheek. Of course, this is why I think it's so crazy that people pay so much attention to that 1% of the actors, athletes, celebrities who made it big. It is obviously justified for them. I think Connor McGreggor was on the Irish equivalent of universal basic income or welfare when he was training and working as a part time plumber. Obviously, it worked out for him. But it doesn't mean that society as a whole should do what he did. It is fun to make fun of yourself from time to time. I think running a value strategy requires a good sense of humor (unless you switched over to tech/growth in the last 10 years).

Great observation. I guess when you make money on momentum, momo begets more momo. So more monkeys running the same strategy actually leads to better performance and can allow the monkeys to get really wealthy. I guess when it doesn't work, it unravels pretty quickly as well.

Found this on Wall Street Bets. This person turns $35k into $1.25mm in less than 4 months in basically all calls and puts https://preview.redd.it/fu0a7hn4qn951.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a2fcc6bb5b52e10ba50301aa0374feb8d0fe863 Of course, this is likely like the monkey who accidentally got 40 heads in a row

What is considered an acceptable amount of walking time to get to a Metro Station in DC? 5 mins? 10 mins? 15? It does get hotter than NYC. Here, 5 is superb, 10 is acceptable and can still command premium rent. over 15, it gets hard. From a leasing perspective, I own a 4 unit that's a 5 minute walk to the local stop. We can get that rented out in less than a week from April through October. During the winter months, it's takes a little longer. This is pre-covid.