glider3834

no worries Viking I really appreciate your insights & valuable comments (the positive and the negative) from everyone on this board!

re BIAL/Anchorage - an example today of pension/infrastructure funds' appetite for airport assets - takeover offer announced for Sydney airport https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/super-giants-bid-22b-for-sydney-airport-20210705-p586ui.html

yes sure https://www.godigit.com/financials Annual Reports show in 'Public Disclosures"

at around USD 2.5 bil , then Digit would be worth approx 20% of Fairfax's current market cap And this is of a US $154 million cost basis in 2017 - that would be close to a 16 bagger! I am fully expecting Fairfax to raise their fair value given its carrying value is sitting at USD 517 (at 31 Dec-20) which is substantially below approx pro forma USD 2.4 - 2.5 bil (depending on dilution) value based on this funding round that is also the largest in Digit's history. But lets wait & see if they go all the way to USD 2.5 bil or opt for a more conservative number and hold booking those gains for a future date. petec it looks like there will be some dilution or 5% based on press reports for the parent co. of Digit Insurance which is Go Digit Infoworks Service Pvt Ltd which is jointly owned by Fairfax (with majority stake) and Kamesh Goyal , but we will have to wait to find out what Fairfax's new interest will be I suspect it will still be around the 70% area (based on Fairfax being able to move from 49% to 70% area with new FDI rules for foreign owned insurers) Kamesh Goyal and team at Digit deserve our praise! They have done a phenomenal job during a really tough period & are continuing that form- I actually had a look at their recently released AR 2020/21 - there is such an intense focus on the customer & addressing all those pain points with insurance in a very smart, tech savy way (BTW I really liked the youtube video links in AR where they have kids simplify their insurance language & having Virat Kohli come aboard as their brand ambassador for Digit is also absolutely brilliant ( he recently became the first person from Asia to have more than 100 million followers on Instagram https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/virat-kohli-becomes-first-asian-celebrity-to-have-100-million-followers-on-instagram-7210415/) I also watched a recent interview where Kamesh said IPO is definitely an option at some stage but unlikely to do this year and Prem ruled it out in the annual meeting for this year suggesting instead Digit was at the beginning stage of potentially capturing a big market share (their share is currently at 1.6%). Either way I am looking forward to seeing how this all plays out.

Once the funding is completed, Digit’s valuation will almost double to $3.5 billion from $1.9 billion previously, Goyal said over phone. The company had raised $18.5 million from existing investors including Faering, A91 Partners, and TVS Capital in January. The valuation makes Digit India’s third most valuable fintech, surpassing payments provider Razorpay and Pine Labs, which were valued at $3 billion each earlier this year.

Big news on Digit! https://www.livemint.com/companies/start-ups/digit-insurance-s-value-soars-to-3-5-billion-after-fresh-funding-11625161231729.html

for Digit I have been checking the IRDAI monthly non-life GWP numbers but note that these flash numbers are provisional & unaudited (so not final numbers for Digit) & for 2021-22 YTD which is for just two months as year runs from 1st Apr (so for Apr & May as Jun not available yet) an increase of 125% in GWP on prior corresponding period and a market share of 1.7% so looks like they are making good progress there. Here is link https://www.irdai.gov.in/ADMINCMS/cms/frmGeneral_List.aspx?DF=MBFN&mid=3.2.8 under Home >> Insurers >> General >> Monthly business figures

thanks Viking! I am interested to also see how the rest of their non-FFH related long equity TRS position goes as well. If we assume approx P/BV of 0.85 , then Fairfax is sitting at a decent discount avg P/BV ratio of 1.09 for Fairfax over the last 5 years as reported by morningstar https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/stocks/valuation.aspx?t=0P00006821&lang=en-CA and below the median Price/Book value deal multiple of 1.19x for M&A transactions for P&C insurers in 2020 https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/financial-services/2021-insurance-ma-outlook.pdf Using FFH 2020 AR extract (see below), I crunched some numbers on Fairfax's sale of 14% interest in Brit to OMERS for USD 375 mil - works out to be at a multiple of approx 1.5 x NWP and 1.68 x BV - obviously that is just one sub & not necessarily reflective of the rest of the Fairfax insurance business but still interesting Brit, based in London, England, is a market-leading global Lloyd’s of London specialty insurer and reinsurer. In 2020, Brit’s net premiums written were US$1,775.6 million. At year-end, the company had shareholders’ equity of US$1,592.6 million and there were 748 employees.

thanks viking I haven't dug into this business - from their Jan-21 presentation, the management are reporting numbers which appear to be decent to me Solid track record of value creation: • Invested ~$250 million of equity capital • Assembled a diversified portfolio of private mid-market Canadian companies • Generated an annual ROE of 21% since IPO in 2011 • EBITDA growth - 28% CAGR since IPO I guess we will have to wait for reasons why this was the best investment option for them right now given the other opportunities available? I found these comments quoted below from Paul Rivett in 2016 that might provide some insight https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/fairfax-financial-to-invest-150-million-in-mosaic-capital-607978226.html "We are excited to partner with John Mackay, Harold Kunik and Mark Gardhouse and their team through a direct investment in Mosaic" said Paul Rivett, President of Fairfax. "John and Harold have a long track record of successfully applying value investing principles to acquire majority positions in strong cash flow producing small and medium sized businesses. They have been successfully applying a decentralized approach that ensures the management remains invested and operating on a day-to-day basis. Over time, some of these investments are expected to grow to a size where they may need additional capital from Fairfax. Fairfax often receives opportunities that are difficult to act on because of their smaller size which may be of interest to Mosaic. We look forward to having a partner whose expertise and experience in mid-market private equity acquisitions over the last decade can be combined with our flow of opportunities."

If we expect they can continue compounding BV at 10% (which they have achieved to end of 31 Mar-21) & thats your minimum expected return as an investor going forward, you would expect fair market value to be closer to book value. In this context, the Fairfax substantial issuer bid makes sense to me.

Looks like Fairfax had realised loss of $52 mil on Torstar (from 2021 AR) so there would have been a tax benefit - potentially one motivation - in addition to cash offer for their shares but agree that definitely would have been better if they could have somehow partnered with NordStar rather than selling to them. I doubt Fairfax could have predicted that VerticalScope would generate an IPO return of 3x the sale price for Torstar - the IPO market was dead in May-20 & we were in the middle of covid - whereas now IPO market is extremely strong. Torstar aside, I am definitely sitting on the bullish side of the fence when it comes to Fairfax over the next 12 mths - hard insurance market continuing to drive UWP - Riverstone Barbados sale on closing further strengthening their capital position - unrealised gains on equity portfolio returns continuing in Q2 2021 (eg RFP, BB, STLC) - interest income potential tailwind from higher interest rates if not in 2021 then potentially early/late 2022 - further potential IPO/monetisations of investees over 2021 - increasing their ownership of Digit from 49% to 74% & Digit position appears to be carried conservatively compared to recent Jan funding round. - non-insurance sub operating businesses should continue to post improved performance - Fairfax India stake is undervalued (well below BV) & Fairfax INdia recently announced tender offer/buyback will further increase FFH ownership - Fairfax's warrants in both BB & ATCO carried off their books - could be potentially monetised

totally agree with you that there needs to be an investment case for adding any holding like GOOG and they would have done a deep dive on this one - it became a top 10 holding in their 13F over last 12 mths - my impression from Prem's annual letters was they recognise these large tech platform businesses are great businesses but they are too expensive at the moment. I am not smart enough to call the top with Stelco or RFP but as a shareholder obviously I would like to see Fairfax really max out on these investments - will leave to smarter heads than myself to make the call on this one but timing will be critical!

they are not shorting anymore - so going forward this is a non-issue Sale of Riverstone Barbados (still pending approval) will further strengthen their capital position & they are focused on this. Agree that Fairfax needs exit strategies for some of these more cyclical businesses that are enjoying potentially cyclical peak pricing like Resolute Forest Products or Stelco or which are enjoying WSB reddit popularity like Blackberry, this will be important to how well Fairfax performs this year. Over time I would like to see more secular growth Alphabet Inc (GOOG) type investments in their equity portfolio (large tech platforms high returns on capital & highly cash generative) at the right price of course!

Am I correct in saying that around 5.7 million shares of RFP were included in the investment portfolio with the Riverstone Barbados sale? - 30.5 million RFP shares reported on FFH's 13F as at 31 Dec-20. - 24.8 million RFP shares reported in FFH 's 2020 Annual report, as Riverstone Barbados is equity accounted for so its investment portfolio (including RFP I gather) is no longer consolidated It appears Fairfax have entered into an agreement to purchase certain Riverstone Barbados investments from CVC at a fixed price of $1.2 billion before the end of 2022 and this is based on the 31 Dec;19 prices for these investments (RFP price at 31 Dec-19 was $4.10 versus $16.87 on28 May-21) . Prem said Fairfax has the 'opportunity' to purchase these investments, so it sounds more like a call option arrangement but not sure. It would be great to get more clarity on this - what investments are included in this $1.2 billion amount (would that include these RFP shares)? is it a 'call option' or are they required to purchase?

I actually bought a galazy s4 recently , its got a nice big screen & I can read reports on the bus on the way to work! ;)

also I am looking for a partner to start an investment partnership in Sydney - check out Employment Advertisement section! ;)

I have always maintained a concentrated portfolio with AIG making up nearly 20% of my current portfolio and I currently am holding less than 15 stocks across 3 portfolios I manage 3 portfolios including personal account. I have always used a concentrated value approach. Two big winners this year included two I wrote about on gurufocus Delhaize Group DEG ADR (I recommended DEG ADR on gurufocus last year at around $36) – sold my position out at $67.50 (average cost $33) ING Group ING ADR (I recommended ING Group ADR on gurufocus last year at $5.96) – haven’t sold my position , current price $11.35 (average cost between mid$6 to $8 across 3 portfolios) Other big winners for me in the last 12 months have included AIG,C,BAC,MBIA Worst investment – (RWM) Short Russell 2000 ETF – hedging losses substantially affected my overall returns & JC Penney (JCP)(I recommended on gurufocus at around $20 MEA CULPA!)

great idea, there are some smart investors on this board & I will be interested to see how the preferences look once we have had a good number of votes cast. Cash & AIG were my two favs. ;)

It impossible to make market predictions but on the question - are there fewer opportunities to buy now than in the last 3 years? The answer has to definitely be yes. And that should make all of us cautious.

I don't agree with the Value investment institute's article's critique on BB's investment in AIG (I own shares in AIG for full disclosure) AIG's leverage ratio is 5:1 and not 10:1 as stated in the article - refer to Q3 2012 consolidated balance sheet. Insurance company liabilities are estimates but I disagree there are always an "unknown quantity" - I would recommend anyone studying an insurance company estimate spends time on their loss tables to see movements in reserves & redundancies to gauge the quality of the liability provisions. It is impossible to make a prediction that is 100% correct of what the insurer's actual liabilities will be year to year but when an insurance company is conservatively run and managed you can generally make a close enough forecast. Investing is after all taking a calculated risk based on the known facts at the time. AIG trades for $31 & its book value including OCI is around $68. So it is very cheap on this measure. Book value is a very appropriate measure to value in insurance companies because their assets generally consist of corporate & government bonds, equities and cash - assets which are generally liquid and can be fairly valued. Ditto on the liability side, everyone needs to do their homework - I think Bruce Berkowitz has done his. Berkowitz is right in saying AIG's books have been scoured over by numerous regulators, auditors and ratings agencies since the CDS blow up during the GFC. AIG is a very undervalued stock at the moment.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/top-1000/big-insurance-worries-about-the-future/article4267962/ Good article & highlights the "fall out" from central bankers as they pursue zero interest rate interest policies in most developed nations globally.

cool, i'm checking in 20th April & will give you a call pre dinner

thanks oec, I booked Intercontinental toronto yorkville on hotwire - its bit further away but I can do a cab & it was 126 per night which is a reasonable deal- hotel looks nice & is 4 stars - thanks for the tip on the Airport express too

thanks for the recommendations!

Can anyone recommend a good hotel in Toronto that is clean convenient and reasonably priced and wireless connection as well thanks!