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gfp

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Everything posted by gfp

  1. Here is the text from this morning's FT article https://www.ft.com/content/97bf4217-902d-4eab-ae83-18884151b0c7 At a JPMorgan Chase Co. event in November, Jamie Dimon and Todd Combs were catching up about the Wall Street bank’s recently announced initiative to invest US$10 billion in companies crucial to U.S. security. Dimon was looking for an investment manager to run the bank’s Security and Resiliency investment fund. It is new terrain for JPMorgan, or indeed almost any bank, to use its own cash to invest in industrial businesses. Combs, already a member of JPMorgan’s board of directors and a protégé of Warren Buffett, was intrigued by the job’s patriotic and eclectic profile. “He said, ‘tell me more’ and that was it,” Dimon told the Financial Times. “I said, ‘If you are remotely interested in this, we’re all in.'” The talks culminated in the announcement this week that Combs would leave Berkshire Hathaway Inc., where he co-managed the US$1.1 trillion conglomerate’s stock portfolio, to join JPMorgan and work for Dimon. Combs’ future at Berkshire was unclear in the new post-Buffett regime that will take hold next month, but the role at the bank assures a continued place at the top of Wall Street. “He loves this company, he really enjoys this company, he knows all the senior people here. It’s a natural home,” Dimon said. “I think he finds it unbelievably interesting to use his skills in different ways.” For Combs, 54, it caps a three-decade career in which he has risen through the insurance and hedge fund industries before landing at Berkshire. He oversaw billions of dollars for the industrials-to-insurance conglomerate and grew close to several directors on Berkshire’s board, including Buffett’s daughter Susie, said people familiar with the matter. But the top role at the company ultimately went to Greg Abel, another long-serving executive. JPMorgan rejected the notion that Combs could be a candidate to follow Dimon, 69, in Wall Street’s highest-profile — and slowest-moving — succession race. “Jamie has said we already have an outstanding group of candidates in place, and Todd has made clear he wants to work on the SRI going forward,” the bank said. Buffett applauded JPMorgan on the move, saying the bank “as usually is the case, has made a good decision.” Combs declined to comment. Combs was born and raised in Florida, graduating from a state university in Tallahassee. He joined the state’s bank regulator before going to work for the car insurer Progressive, where he helped model and set prices for its policies, said a person who worked with him. He enrolled at Columbia Business School, Buffett’s alma mater, and would go on to work at the hedge fund Copper Arch. After several years, he launched his own hedge fund with the backing of the private equity group Stone Point Capital, which seeded his Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm with US$35 million. The long-short equity hedge fund, known as Castle Point Capital, invested primarily in financial services groups, owning shares in American Express, the insurer Chubb, Berkshire and JPMorgan, filings show. Buffett gave Combs permission to join JPMorgan’s board in 2016. He will step down from that role to take his new position, which starts in January. In the SRI fund, Combs will fill a new role for JPMorgan — using the bank’s own resources to take financial stakes in companies that are deemed vital to U.S. national security. A who’s who of business and political elites including Jeff Bezos, Michael Dell and Condoleezza Rice have also joined an external advisory council for the programme. The push is part of a broader US$1.5 trillion financing commitment from JPMorgan focusing on themes critical to national security and infrastructure — supply chains and advanced manufacturing, defence and aerospace, energy independence and resilience, and frontier and strategic technologies. Dimon has said these investments will be “100 per cent commercial” for JPMorgan. The bank’s first deal was to take a stake in an Idaho-based company mining gold and antimony used to harden lead bullets. Wells Fargo research analyst Mike Mayo said Combs’ appointment to run the US$10 billion fund was a validation of the bank’s ability to attract top talent. “It’s a significant chunk of change to give to one person,” Mayo said. “I guess that you could say that’s one reason why he’s reporting to Jamie.”
  2. gfp

    Bonds!

    "few understand this" ! signs you may be spending too much time on X Bill! I don't think the point being made above was that either Tsec was "manipulating" long end yields by withholding issuance. The point, I assume, was that when someone is running for office and criticizing the incumbent administration, saying that they would "term out the debt" like a savvy real estate developer and then they get into office and they do the exact same thing as the Tsec they were criticizing, which is to give the market what it wants / needs. You say that stuff when you are running for office (or your guy is running for office) and then you do the actual job identically to everyone else when you get in office.
  3. gfp

    Bonds!

    I assume they are just referencing issuance being almost entirely at the short end and not increasing supply of longer term bond issuance?
  4. gfp

    Bonds!

    Everyone trading the 10 year treasury is looking at the same chart, expecting a move to 4.375% TNX fairly soon. Sometimes when everybody is expecting the exact same thing it doesn't do that thing
  5. What makes you think he owns Berkshire stock?
  6. Wasn't me man... One of the reasons I buy things on the way down. Not a single order fill today
  7. I think he was still running his portfolio inside BRK while running GEICO. I don't think SIRI is likely to be a Todd pick.
  8. What an interesting development! Greg is putting his organizational stamp on the firm. A general counsel, a deputy for consumer and service businesses. Marc Hamburg has been amazing but he was getting very old and retirement was imminent regardless of leadership changes at the very top. 40 years of service! I hope they give him more than a watch. We should be able to tell for sure which positions were Todd's since they will likely be liquidated Just noticed Marc is staying on until June 2027 - so they will overlap by a full year with two CFOs. Also, Todd's new role at JPM is outlined in this article - https://www.investmentnews.com/equities/todd-combs-exits-berkshire-for-jpmorgan-role-steering-10b-security-push/263440 edit: here is JPM's official press release https://www.jpmorganchase.com/newsroom/press-releases/2025/jpmorganchase-names-todd-combs-to-head-strategic-investment-group
  9. You said “aggregate dollar amount” and then linked a chart of average dollar amount per transaction
  10. General article on Bloomberg about Adani airports investments. Couldn't find the article for free yet so this is probably paywalled for those that don't subscribe to bloomberg. gift link might work for the first few of you - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/adani-group-plans-15-billion-india-airports-expansion-by-2030?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc2NDcyMzYzMSwiZXhwIjoxNzY1MzI4NDMxLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUNVlaOENHUTFZUTAwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJDQzBDODMzNzNFQjM0MDk5QkQ3QTM2RkVBMTJDMTRFRCJ9.ikzatiScS38agObKKjFw0bUKUDYJB6ZPrqTQbTQmoEY
  11. gfp

    Bonds!

    Government bonds aren't priced off the deficit, they are priced off market expectations for economic growth and inflation. You should want longer term government bond yields to increase because that would likely mean healthy GDP growth. When interest rates go down, bad things are usually happening. I'm sure there will be some reaction the minute news comes out of the supreme court. But then the administration will pivot to trying to accomplish the same thing in a different way. A bunch of time will pass when nobody knows how it will all shake out. And ultimately bonds will be priced based on economic growth and inflation. Not "supply" or the deficit.
  12. Why on earth did they name the public company "Gemini Space Station, Inc." ?
  13. It's just a shift in leadership. The big spenders are being rotated out of and I assume the energy, pharma, and economically sensitive stuff is going to take a turn. Small caps will start to perform better relative to the mega cap momentum names that previously led. Doesn't mean the AI bubble is finished inflating. On to the next bottleneck. If it ain't GPUs it's power or something else.
  14. I don't know if the video is anywhere, but the slides are on the website and the audio is on the Quartr app for free.
  15. Sorry, I don't know what the specific issue was with the article but I tried to post a "gift article" link. It probably only works to bypass the paywall for the first several people who click on it and maybe an international IP address gets rejected - beats me. When I posted the article it had just been published so it wasn't available on an archive type site yet. It was a good article, at least for people like us who love these little details
  16. This sounds totally negotiated between the two parties and I'll bet it gets no bump.
  17. Sell and move on unless you want to shift the taxes to 2026.
  18. https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/charlie-munger-life-final-years-berkshire-7c20c18e?st=VCptnz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink The WSJ has a nice long story out on Charlie.
  19. My bet would still be that BIAL management ends up operating the second airport. Or a second airport and a reactivation of the old airport for domestic flights. They are doing a good job operating Kempegowda, they have access to a lot of capital on good terms, and they have a non-compete radius.
  20. It's kind of cringe-worthy really. He's extremely unlikely to be harping on this narrative at the exact top in AI stocks. Much more likely that we are far enough away from a blow-off top that people reading his (I'm sure well reasoned) arguments and acting on them are going to get killed. He obviously cares more about being right than his subscribers making money on the resulting financial decisions. If he can convince a few people to sit out the mania, maybe he will save them from eventual losses. But he's trying to call the top in a massive boom. It's not slowing down
  21. I'm not particularly worried about that risk. I think Fairfax has a good relationship with Modi and India wants some diversification from their current stable of elite families that seem to own everything.
  22. There are only two owners of The Sixty Two Investment Company Limited. But one of the shareholders is "The Second 1109 Holdco Ltd." which, while controlled by Prem, is probably majority economically owned by the Watsa Family Trust at this point. Originally, before Fairfax Financial itself became a shareholder of Sixty Two, there were other shareholders of Sixty Two: "prominent Canadian businessmen" and Confederation Life Insurance Company (Prem's former employer).
  23. I've added to FIH.U recently but it is also important to keep an eye on the currency since it hasn't been great and this result has been with CB interventions! edit: and a longer term look
  24. I believe that subscriber figure includes the "free" tier, which won't include much.
  25. Look at that! They say Nola is #1. I will say that in the last year there are far fewer audible gunshots. For a while there we were hearing gunshots almost nightly. I'm an expert on deciphering if a sound is fireworks or gunshots. I think that means we will lose that particular distinction.
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