gfp

I already posted about this, but all off-the-run treasury securities are classified as Level 2. Also any bond that requires a dealer quote to mark to market is also a Level 2 security. So that leaves basically on-the-run treasuries, bills, cash equivalents, as the only level 1 bonds.

We will see if it "crashes." So far we are re-living the morning of January 17th, 2024 (at least in USD terms). I did most of my purchasing yesterday so I won't have much capital to buy a crash if it comes.

That's not what "insider information" is. Material non-public information is about the company itself, not the behavior of other shareholders.

I think they are talking about the US over the counter ticker FRFHF. Interestingly, it seems like Interactive Brokers changed margin requirements for FRFHF mid-day today to 100% initial and 100% maintenance. FFH shares remain at 30% initial and 30% maintenance.

Block tries to imply that Fairfax holding much of their government bond portfolio as Level 2 assets is somehow strange and untoward and ripe for manipulation. Off-the-run treasury securities or really any bond that requires a dealer quote to get a valuation is Level 2. That is how off-the-run securities are supposed to be classified.

That zeroes - tv interview is better than the CNBC interview, that's for sure. He still does a lot of assigning motive as being accounting write-ups without mentioning what they wanted/needed the money they borrow from OMERS for. He seems to think that APR Energy has something to do with WTI oil prices because it has "energy" in the name. He is right, of course, that the 10% of a subsidiary deals with the full intention to repurchase the interest is fixed rate preferred equity financing. I don't think that has been hidden. It's not structured as debt, it has a fixed, known cost, the partner fully expects to have the equity interest repurchased by Fairfax. Fairfax fully expects to repurchase the equity interest. It IS financing. I don't think that's a bombshell. But I guess it looks bad if you assume the motive was the accounting write up. https://www.zer0es.tv/big-announcements/fairfax-financial-the-oracle-of-nothing/

Might be lost in the news of the morning, but Prem resigned from the Blackberry board of directors today (as of 2/15) "in connection with the Company's repayment at maturity of its $150 million principal amount convertible debentures held by Fairfax"

What good are record earnings when Farmers Edge is bleeding millions!!!?

Well he would be smart to exit before the annual report comes out, that's for sure. I suspect his best exit opportunity in the shares was to exit on this morning's open but I assume he expressed this "short" in the credit default swap market so who knows how those spreads look (not me). Fairfax has no options and trades in in Canada and OTC - this isn't a very good "short and distort" candidate to get others on the bandwagon.

CNBC has video https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/02/08/muddy-waters-carson-block-on-why-hes-shorting-fairfax-financial.html

Well that was fun!

The IFRS discussion completely ignores the mismatch between the company's short duration bond portfolio and the liabilities at the time the new rules were adopted. This was the reason FFH had an outsized impact vs. other Canadian insurers at the time. This was required and audited - its not like they are pulling shit out of thin air. The Digit stuff pretty weak. FFH only wrote up the preferred shares on the Sequoia deal. The 49% equity is equity-accounted (only P & L) and held on the books for $130m. I don't have a clue if an eventual IPO will be a "down round" less than $3.5 Billion. Digit combined ratios and profitability/losses are fully disclosed in FFH's filings. There is a mismatch between FFH's calendar year reports and Digit's fiscal year reports apparently. The muddy waters report seems to conflate "fair value" and carrying value on Digit in a few places. Fairfax sometimes mentions "fair value," $2.278 Billion at 12/31/2022 - but that isn't what Digit is on FFH's books for.

Oh wow, I had no idea that book had gone all "margin of safety" - maybe I should list my copy. It used to be quite easy to buy. I'm sure a bunch of libraries still have it.

That would be earnings Charlie! https://www.reuters.com/business/willis-towers-watson-beats-profit-estimates-risk-brokerage-strength-2024-02-06/

It must be very different in American cities other than the one I live in. I don't see parks full of immigrants or immigrants committing crimes at rates even close to the rates of poor native-born Americans. I see homeless people that are almost 100% native born Americans, a mix of older military vetrans and mentally ill and young people that made bad choices or had awful luck or both. The folks living on the park bench and in tent cities where I am are not recent immigrants, they are native born Americans. The immigrants are at work making $200 per day, remitting $100 of it back to family and showing up at 7am the next morning to do it again. Armed robberies, auto theft, shootings, homicides - all committed by native born poor people in my city. It's like parallel realities. I see immigrants afraid they will be robbed by poor violent locals and you guys are acting like these are cartel members coming across with their children by the thousands. Cartel members can come into the united states whenever they want. Closing the border will not restrict the movement of cartel members. Crossing borders is literally their specialty.

Apologies in advance for continuing this thread another day. I do think the "American Dream" is still alive and well for the $20-$30 per hour cash construction worker, painter, etc... There is plenty of full time work available at those wages as a minimum and they often work on Saturday and Sunday as well (not as often on Sundays, there are still church services, quinceaneras and futbol games after all). $25 an hour full time for 6 days a week is $1200 per week for what many mistakenly term "unskilled." (This is a nit pick of mine because I'm tired of carpenters being described as unskilled labor by useless idiots - "okay philosophy professor, build me a staircase"). If the husband earns $1200/week and the wife cleans houses & paints on the side it is change-your-life and your family back home's life type of money.

Interesting. So what specifically is up in price? And is this recent price increases or just "it never went back to pre-covid" type stuff? Because inflation in the United States in the last 6 months is at or below the target. They don't want it to be zero.

It's my fault. I was foolish enough to point out that in-migration is a positive for the national economy when we were discussing inflation. Didn't think it was up for debate. Think again! THESE IMMIGRANTS ARE DIFFERENT! WE ONLY WANT THE GOOD ONES! Back to fretting about a wage spiral I guess

Homeservices would really like the Supreme Court to help with their little issue - https://news.bloomberglaw.com/health-law-and-business/berkshire-hathaway-unit-asks-high-court-to-review-antitrust-suit

The exact same mechanism for every single native born renter in the country. Jesus man.

Wow, yeah that is a horrible answer.

The thing about economies is that more is more and less is less. If you have a larger economy with more people producing, consuming, creating, moving, eating, sheltering, and, yes, even convalescing, you have more. Decisions to hand out money or services or bus immigrants to a high cost city they would not have gone to themselves based on market forces are completely separate policy decisions. They can be stupid or wrong and probably are. They are separate decisions. An illegal Honduran immigrant just knocked on my door because they needed a key to my neighbors house. They have children attending public school for free. They also pay rent that directly funds the property taxes that fund the school their kids go to. Some of their pay goes back to Honduras as remittances and leaves our country (bad for us). They also pay sales tax on the rest of their income because 100% of what is not remitted to Honduras is spent in the local economy. So they are directly funding city government through property taxes and sales tax. They receive no free money or services, they are here illegally. No hand-outs unless you think the fire department and school that they are funding are hand-outs. I would prefer if they also paid income tax but that is a policy I do not control. One of the best "features" of immigrants is that they will move around in response to market forces to meet the needs of the economy much more than native born workers. They are not going to sit in the rust belt doing nothing waiting for some long-gone economic paradigm to return because that is what and where they used to do it.

Right. So everything you are saying is causing a problem is about policy and the social safety net, giving free stuff and services to immigrants and locals. Not what I am talking about, which is immigration being positive for the economy. I'm not debating you on the policies above, those sound problematic. Immigration isn't the issue - those policies are.

There is work for everyone, including immigrants. Not working is a choice. The price of labor is not suggesting we are near a problem like you describe. I'll take more hard working immigrants over the unskilled American currently choosing not to work.

Well you wouldn't get thrown out of my class