gfp

There was somebody at Barron's who guessed Chubb and that person was correct.

I guess Chubb - do I win??

If you are really looking for some confirmation bias just check in on David Tepper

After a brief technical delay, the NAIC website is functioning again and the Q1 reports are trickling out. So far, for Odyssey Re, it looks like they sold $60m worth of Micron stock on 3/26 and purchased a Digit 10 year bond yielding 9.75% and an IIFL Finance 3 year bond yielding 9.5%, among other trades like Orla that we knew about. This is not for consolidated Fairfax like a 13F, this is just for the Odyssey Re entity Not sure if these will be legible so I am attaching the whole document. Trades are at the end. Purchases Sales 23680.2024.P.Q1.P.O.1.4769174.pdf

Huh.. That's a hot take. As an example, if the market cap of the company halved but the freely traded float stayed the same would that also be just optics or at some point does the share count of the company matter to you?

Here's some news: https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-purchase-of-275000-subordinate-voting-shares-for-cancellation-from-chairman-and-ceo-prem-watsa/?utm_source=press-release&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Mon+May+13+2024&utm_campaign=Fairfax+Announces+Purchase+of+275+000+Subordinate+Voting+Shares+for+Cancellation+from+Chairman+and+CEO+Prem+Watsa

I like how the debt is structured and termed out. Fixed rate at a very attractive rate. First maturity is $268m in 2026. This visual is helpful to get comfortable with the debt -

Here is the Atlas Q1 report - https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=318311121&type=HTML&symbol=ATCO&cdn=724594abd25878a3690de8060552477c&companyName=Atlas+Corp.&formType=6-K&dateFiled=2024-05-10

The dog that caught the bus. At least it came with a snazzy name.

I never post on this thread but I will today. I am buying JACK shares here at $1 Billion market cap with all of the negativity surrounding the California fast food minimum wage law and challenging times for restaurants in general (and a horrible chart breaking down to new lows). I actually think Darrin Harris is a very good manager and JACK is back to their share-retirement ways (the long term record of share retirement is very good, it was paused for a bit following the Del Taco acquisition). Refranchising company owned restaurants frees up capital for share repurchases. I would hope they increase repurchases, but even at the recent $25 million per quarter you can take out 10% of shares a year and pay your 3.3% dividend on top of that. Earnings are next week. Similar negativity resulted in a short-covering freak out in El Pollo Loco recently, which has an even heavier weighting to California.

The article I linked to above was quoting Kamesh Goyal so I would say that is a credible source. This is all very similar to how a US IPO works. Leaks and rumors about pricing, subject to change leading into the final announcement, IPO prices set a bit low to hopefully get a nice enthusiastic pop on day one, etc. etc..

Did you read my post either time I posted it? It will show up at that link when it is final. Every word in a sentence is important.

RE: "I get that, where is the actual prospectus that these articles are referring to? I guess this is the first Indian IPO I have ever actually been interested in and it is bizarre. "

I will just say that I have learned a lot about the Indian love for their cricket icon Virat Kohli through his name being included in virtually every mention of Digit on Indian financial media. Being a resident of south Louisiana, United States, I was not up to date on famous cricketers and this guy sounds like the Michael Jordan of cricket.

This article quotes the IPO price as being around $3 Billion USD, less than the last fundraising round. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/go-digits-kamesh-goyal-says-we-took-investor-feedback-to-decide-the-ipo-price-hope-to-give-them-value-12719353.html

That is what a 'red herring' preliminary prospectus is - a document with a bunch of blanked out sections because they haven't been solidified yet. Even a reported range for the IPO price is subject to change based on demand. 272 INR per share seems low. Even if they price the IPO at 272 it will probably open much higher. There are "selling shareholders," however small, with cost basis of 250 INR / share.

Maybe someone who attended the formal meeting in person knows, but Warren and CNBC made the wise decision to cut off his televised platform by not live-streaming the formal meeting and shareholder proposals.

Yes, this year for the first time. At this link, the movie starts at the 30:54 minute mark. It is a new version with much more Munger content but has many of the classic skits that they were able to run down permissions for https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3wLdzddRtI&t=5715s

The final prospectus will show up at this link when it is final: https://www.sebi.gov.in/sebiweb/home/HomeAction.do?doListing=yes&sid=3&ssid=15&smid=12

The earlier versions from 2023 contemplated selling almost twice as many shares. 1699616304302.pdf1680765082765.pdf One of these attached files is the original 2023 preliminary prospectus and the other is the "addendum" to that prospectus, filed in November, when they explained how they got in trouble for changing a conversion ratio without fully notifying everyone they were required to. This is the recently resolved matter, slap on the wrist, whatever.

The most recent filing on SEBI is from May 8, 2024 - attached below. This is a 'red herring' prospectus, what we also call a preliminary prospectus. The filings before this one were also IPO related, from April 2023 and November 10, 2023. Red Herring attached as pdf 1715254865991.pdf

That's right, they are carrying the 49% (pre-IPO percentage) equity at $152.2 million USD and they are carrying the compulsory convertible pref. shares at approximately $2.092 Billion. If completely converted (regulatory approval needed), this would result in Fairfax owning 68% of Digit (pre-IPO percentage). It looks like the IPO will dilute them slightly and they may choose to sell a few shares in the IPO - I have no idea.

Fannie and Freddie are considering offering government agency guarantees of 2nd mortgages, which is somewhat analogous to a cash out refi but with a second mortgage you keep your original loan and add a second loan at market rate - https://www.wsj.com/articles/return-of-the-housing-godzillas-fannie-freddie-biden-second-mortgages-f7ac7d77 Here is another opinion piece written by Meredith Whitney on the subject - https://www.ft.com/content/1d287e0c-afda-46f0-9961-9da157b50101

In case anybody wants more detail on these two subsidiaries, they also file with the SEC. BNSF 10Q - https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/934612/000093461224000009/bni-20240331.htm BHE 10Q - https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001081316/000108131624000010/bhe-20240331.htm

Just imagine the flak they are going to give poor Greg when he holds $400 Billion in t-bills some day.