gfp
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Everything posted by gfp
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As always, I think you care way too much about the Federal Reserve and it is far less consequential than you think it is. If Warsh thinks persistent inflation is always a monetary phenomenon as Friedman said, then the responsibility is with deficit spending by congress / US treasury / POTUS. Saying the Federal reserve is responsible is missing Milton Friedman's point. Saying the Federal Reserve "encouraged" massive reckless deficit spending by Congress over the last decade is wrong. The government does what it is going to do and the Federal Reserve doesn't have a say in it. The argument again lays blame at the wrong institution. Warsh will get into the chairmanship with plans and promises to shrink the Fed's balance sheet and then bank reserves in the system will deplete until there is a hiccup and he will immediately stop shrinking the balance sheet and never mention how principled he was right up until he realized what the reality of ample reserves was. Just to reiterate: QE and QT do not cause inflation, stimulate or slow the economy. Shrinking the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will have no impact on inflation. If not abandoned in the early innings it will probably cause a crisis in the banking sector, which could spread and cause problems that would happen to be deflationary. But if you break the financial system that is going to cause deflation - it isn't the QT that caused deflation it is the recession. Basically people say stupid shit when they are applying for the job and trying to get confirmed and then they get into the job and do what everyone else does.
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"many more" is two 25 basis point cuts?
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2025 Annual Report - Greg Abel's first annual letter
gfp replied to backtothebeach's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
After a slow start the first few pages, I really enjoyed the new style of the letter. An annual report should be about Berkshire. Recent reports have strayed too far from that fundamental purpose. -
Looking forward to your writing Blake! And if I disagree with you I will certainly point it out In the meantime, spend some time at the university of wabuffo and don't forget to get out there and make some money!
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Here is a bloomberg "gift link" that will work for the first few folks I believe https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-27/fairfax-said-to-lead-race-for-8-billion-india-bank-stake-sale?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3MjE5NjY0OCwiZXhwIjoxNzcyODAxNDQ4LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUQjJDR0hLSVVQWDQwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJDQzBDODMzNzNFQjM0MDk5QkQ3QTM2RkVBMTJDMTRFRCJ9.dlO_srN5-ytZA8ZHp-54_A4MNQMBOkO3HNkgtev1Om8
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These trades are personal. I don't manage a "fund" as in a pooled investment vehicle. But I do manage the "funds" of a few other people/entities. Mostly for free but a couple not.
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RVMD files to sell a billion bucks of new stock...
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pretty good!
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Gotta be a positive for Bloom since nobody else has availability. Don't suppose the president thought through to natural gas prices since he's a pretty first order kinda guy. Luckily there is plenty of gas in the US
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It was down but is working again
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https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/real-estate/news/warren-buffetts-trusted-executive-ajit-jain-buys-apartment-in-gurugram-for-rs-85-crore/articleshow/128785957.cms Another article about Ajit's ~$9.3 million USD apartment purchase in India. What dedication to the company
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Some more insider action at Verisk https://www.dataroma.com/m/ins/ins.php?t=m&po=1&am=0&sym=VRSK&o=fd&d=d
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Jobs are for bots! You've already future-proofed yourself
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No big surprise https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1145038/000114503826000002/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1771971338.xml
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That would be the wrong reason to do something like that and honestly a very bad sign. But it was hypothetical and likely false so here's hoping that is the case. Messing with reserving because "you don't need the earnings" is just as bad as messing with the reserving because you don't want to miss analyst expectations by a penny a share. Once you go there its all over
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The rebuttals are as dumb as the citrini piece. The details in a hypothetical don't really matter. The point is that AI being applied to everything it can be will be incredibly disruptive to the current order of things including employment and "the economy." If you listened in school, capitalism is super depressing for every business eventually. We will have abundance and an absolute shit show of unemployment and government welfare all at the same time. It's gonna be rough. Encourage your kids to end up on the right side of it.
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The AI/Software narrative around private credit is just the flavor du jour - flash back a bit longer and it was Tricolor and First Brands (which had nothing to do with each other despite both being sort of related to automobiles and fraudsters). If the same loans were inside a bank they also wouldn't be marked to market and they wouldn't face the same type of publicity around gating withdrawals and illiquidity. They tried a new model and we'll see if it goes the way of subprime funds being isolated incidents before they weren't...
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Why quote me @dwy000?
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White House Council
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Thompson Reuters having a bounce because people realized they have their own AI products (a $650m acquisition of CaseText in 2023) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/anthropic-shout-out-makes-thomson-reuters-tri-stock-the-latest-ai-winner?srnd=homepage-americas Gemini summary: --------- The Origins and Development of CoCounsel Here is how the tool actually came together: The Casetext Origins (and OpenAI): CoCounsel was originally created by a legal tech startup called Casetext. Casetext secured early access to OpenAI's GPT-4 model before it was publicly released, allowing them to build and launch CoCounsel as the world's first AI legal assistant in March 2023. The Thomson Reuters Acquisition: Recognizing the power of the tool and the threat it posed to traditional legal research, Thomson Reuters acquired Casetext just a few months later, in June 2023, for $650 million. Current Multi-Model Architecture: Since the acquisition, Thomson Reuters has expanded CoCounsel far beyond its original GPT-4 foundation. The platform now operates on a "model-agnostic" architecture. It utilizes frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, combining their reasoning capabilities with Thomson Reuters' own proprietary AI orchestration and massive databases of verified legal and tax content (like Westlaw and Practical Law). Essentially, Thomson Reuters provides the domain expertise, proprietary databases, custom workflows, and fact-checking guardrails, while licensing the raw computational reasoning power of the major frontier labs.
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It was posted a few places. "Tidbits" thread, "Artificial Intelligence" thread
