gfp
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Everything posted by gfp
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Warren Buffett's money managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, speak
gfp replied to ValueMaven's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
They are mostly online these days. ValueLine, Morningstar, GuruFocus has a product. Walker's Manual of Unlisted Stocks if it is still around - a slightly out of date copy should do you fine I should add that Walker's manual is way out of print, but oddball has a shorter list of unlisted stocks that is kept online here - it is a subscription product. There is also a separate product for the small banks. http://unlistedstocks.net an example report - http://unlistedstocks.net/company_detail.php?company_id=1 -
Going by the guidelines of the nytimes article, Facebook and Microsoft were my first choices to drop and also the most popular first choices to drop of the five. Really tells you something about moats but not perhaps investment merit. Facebook can decline in popularity, especially among the younger users and still increase the relatively new monetization of their platforms. All the advertisers I know are doing more on Facebook, not less. Poor Mr. Softie doesn't get much love. The only MSFT products I use are Excel and Word, but I'm sure a lot of what I interact with on a daily basis runs on MSFT products without me knowing it. Our 17 yr old is on his xbox one a lot. It's a tough call between the other 3. I would give up Google before Apple and Apple before Amazon.
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Berkshire Annual Meeting 2017 - Live Stream Discussion
gfp replied to Graham Osborn's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Well Charlie is 93 and he will continue to decline. His back was hurting him sufficiently that he was in a wheel chair for the remainder of the weekend, through the CNBC interview, solo Yahoo interview and the final event, an all-day Berkshire Hathaway board meeting. His responsibilities to Berkshire the company are basically non-existent. Tom Murphy was also in a wheel chair. I don't think he will retire unless he has a stroke or something. His role is more as spiritual guide than business executive. He has never really participated in running Berkshire - he has primarily served as a devils-advocate / foil to Buffett on major decisions, acquisitions, big stock purchases, etc.. I don't think Buffett thinks he can predict interest rates out 1 year, 5 years or 10 years. He was just stating the truth of interest rates effect on values. They mentioned Japan as an example of how long rates can stay "low" and surprise everybody. Nobody knows where rates will go. -
Berkshire Annual Meeting 2017 - Live Stream Discussion
gfp replied to Graham Osborn's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Nice that he disclosed the prospective deal structure on the Unilever bid. In what certainly would have been at least a $150 Billion cash offer ultimately, BRK and 3G were going to put in $30 Billion cash and borrow the rest. Gotta love the economics of that. ($15 B from each). There was no talk of issuing KHC shares. -
CNBC has posted a copy of a short letter Elliott Management sent out to investors announcing their 7th capital commitment - they got commitments for $5 Billion in new capital in 24 hrs according to CNBC. The letter is somewhat interesting - they are expecting a volatility spike at some point and would like to have the capital commitment in place to act on short-lived opportunities: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/05/paul-singers-elliott-management-raises-5-billion-in-24-hours-letter.html
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As telegraphed by Warren earlier this year, GEICO is absolutely killing it on gaining new business. They are being very aggressive on pricing, sacrificing a lot of short-term profitability to get these new customers. They believe in their ability to keep them over time as they adjust their rates to earn a suitable profit. I have insured all of our vehicles except motorcycles through USAA since I was 15 years old (motos are insured at GEICO). USAA is of course a wonderful company and in many ways it is the company GEICO was originally modeled after - it is a direct, mutual company. We receive multi-policy discounts on other property business with USAA that keep me from switching, but I recently got a quote from GEICO on an apples-to-apples comparison of coverages on just our cars and trucks. GEICO was significantly less expensive than USAA for our Louisiana auto policies, and USAA knows our complete claims history through my learning permit (not a single claim). Ultimately we won't switch because of thousands of dollars of discounts elsewhere through USAA, but I do believe GEICO is purposefully raising rates much less than they believe their competitors will, sacrificing near-term profit, and buying that big growth we saw this quarter. I think it's a good strategy. [as an aside, in addition to all these large screen smartphones everyone seems to be holding while they drive, one of the biggest factors in auto claims lately has been all these sensors and cameras in the body panels that tend to be damaged in even minor accidents - mirrors, bumpers, fenders - there are sensors and cameras all over new vehicles and the cost of those replacement body panels is multiples higher than a simple stamped fender or bumper and a quick re-spray. That trend will only continue until AI keeps our vehicles from ever touching - in the distant future]
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Berkshire Annual Meeting 2017 - Live Stream Discussion
gfp replied to Graham Osborn's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
I suppose it must be obvious, but what is "the T-word" ? -
Just got home and checked out the press release. $14 Billion increase in float in Q1 to 105 Billion. That's more than I expected. Mostly the AIG deal, but damn Ajit!
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DD, I believe the comment about people holding off on purchases from his sources at the Furniture Mart was in reference to the iPhone, not furniture. NFM has a large electronics business as well.
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In case anyone else is curious about the shareholder intelligence firms Buffett referred to in his CNBC interview, here is an example of one - http://www.shareintel.com/howitworks.cfm Here is the interview in the Kiewit plaza lobby in its entirety from Becky Quick. She was kind of surprised to receive the scoop / breaking news. "Why are you telling us this?" http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000616150
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http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/04/warren-buffett-has-revalued-ibm-downward-cites-big-strong-competitors.html
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Nice offer there, $2.5 million for 49%. I'd take it.
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QSR did a bond issue with the stated intention to redeem BRK's 9% preferred: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1618755/000119312517156640/d390898dex991.htm from the original securities purchase agreement - looks like they will redeem in full or in part before October, no redemption premium: "Optional Redemption The Issuers may redeem some or all of the Notes at any time prior to October 1, 2017 at a price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes redeemed plus a “make whole” premium and, at any time on or after October 1, 2017, at the redemption prices set forth in the Indenture. In addition, at any time prior to October 1, 2017, up to 40% of the aggregate principal amount of the Notes may be redeemed with the net proceeds of certain equity offerings, at the redemption price specified in the Indenture."
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Warren Buffett's money managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, speak
gfp replied to ValueMaven's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Thanks for posting - nice interview. -
Lemann (3G) and Buffett at Harvard Business School 2017
gfp replied to netnet's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Thank you for posting this - what a rare treat to hear Jorge Paulo speak -
Easy peasy, all it takes is complete trust and the ability to send tens of billions of dollars in equity on a week's notice plus unmatched access to credit markets
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Sounds like Star Furniture CEO was fired by the parent company. NFM grandson added to the board for oversight that Warren trusts - http://hfbusiness.com/hfbnow/ArticleId/15622/kimbrell-resigns-as-star-furniture-ceo-blumkin-named-to-board
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http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/11/firm-with-ties-to-buffett-reportedly-considering-topping-jabs-bid-for-panera.html Article citing rumor that 3G is looking at potentially trying to outbid JAB on Panera. Seems unlikely given Buffett's friendship with Byron Trott, who likely put the JAB deal together for that family. But who knows - article also mentions that JAB and 3G principals invest in each others' deals, making a topping bid that much more unlikely Sources have told CNBC that the reports of 3G interest are untrue: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/11/firm-with-ties-to-buffett-reportedly-considering-topping-jabs-bid-for-panera.html
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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/10/business/dealbook/warren-buffett-jorge-paulo-lemann-brazil-conference.html?_r=0
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Buffett's Berkshire takes stakes in four major airlines
gfp replied to KCLarkin's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Bloomberg has an article on the growing importance of the credit-card / miles portion of the major airlines' businesses - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-31/airlines-make-more-money-selling-miles-than-seats as an aside, I haven't paid cash for an airline ticket for myself or my family in several years. someone is paying, I guess it's the banks? -
I don't have what you are looking for, but you may be able to use this document as a starting place to search for what you want. It contains a list of the bond issues that you could search for individually - plus it contains certain financial data for the years you are interested in. You may already have this one, it is the 10-K for the year ending 12/31/1993: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/83612/0000950112-94-000477.txt
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Small update on Ajit's reorganization of General Re (from Insurance Insider): ----------------------- Gen Re shakes up international P&C leadership Adam McNestrie and Catrin Shi Gen Re has appointed new regional heads for its international P&C operations as part of a wider revamp of the reinsurer initiated by Berkshire Hathaway's Ajit Jain, The Insurance Insider understands. Gen Re had previously divided its P&C reinsurance business into treaty and facultative arms, as well as underwriting and marketing operations, creating a plethora of senior roles in each region. The P&C business in each region will now have a single leader. Achim Bosch, previously regional treaty marketing head, has been made P&C head for Germany, Central and Eastern Europe, and Benelux - which together form the largest part of Gen Re's international operations. It is further understood that Gen Re's Spanish and Portuguese P&C operations will be headed by Adolfo Martinez, who was previously chief underwriter for treaty in the region. Emmanuel Brouquier, regional manager for Europe excluding the UK and Germany, has taken on the role of P&C head for France, Scandinavia and the Middle East. Andrew Flitcroft, previously treaty marketing head for Asia Pacific outside of Japan, is now P&C head for Australia and New Zealand. Rainer Schurmann, formerly treaty marketing head for Asia, has become P&C head for Asia, excluding Japan. It is understood that a small number of senior staff have chosen to retire as part of the restructure, although most have remained in place under different roles, suggesting there may be further streamlining of management to come from Gen Re. The restructure has only affected the P&C operations, with Gen Re's international life management structure remaining the same. Berkshire Hathaway reinsurance chief Jain has set about restructuring Gen Re since the carrier fell under his remit when CEO Tad Montross retired last year. Jain appointed Kara Raiguel as CEO, and has moved to simplify the complicated management structure of Gen Re in a bid to take out layers and speed up decision-making. An initial reorganisation of the UK and Italian leadership in October last year, as revealed by this publication at the time, saw Faraday CEO Pietro Toffanello named P&C head for both countries. Steve Michael, previously CEO of one of Berkshire Hathaway's legacy units, then moved across to lead Gen Re's Lloyd's arm Faraday. Gen Re did not respond to a request for comment.
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So your attorney friends just went without any form of health insurance? What if they ended up in the hospital? $100k+ could add up quickly (especially without the negotiated rates) while they tried to quickly enroll in a new health insurance plan
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I didn't notice him slurring, but I did think his front teeth looked different. Anyways, always glad to see him sharp and energetic.
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Thanks for posting the transcript. I was asleep for the first part and it was interesting to hear him describe his shorting DOW common in anticipation of their conversion. He ended up timing it perfectly, with a net zero position the day after they sent him 72 million shares - ---------------------------------------------------------- "Quick: The reason I ask-- that question just now is because Dow Chemical preferred shares-- they called those the preferred shares on December 30th. And from what I read it said that it should've translated into about 6 percent of the shares outstanding of the company— Buffett: 70, 72 million shares, yeah. Quick: But I did not notice Dow Chemical on the 13-F in this most recent filing. Would have-- Buffett: We timed our sales so that once it got above the conversion price-- we timed our sales-- we tried to time 'em—because 72 million shares would be a lot of shares to get and we did not want to own the common stock we don't own any common stocks of any chemical companies so and as the stock when higher we sold it more aggressively because we wanted to get 72 million shares done by the day which was becoming more probable all the time that they would call it and they called it exactly when we thought they would call it. And I think our last shares were sold the day before, the day after, the same day we timed it to be out of 72 million shares when we received those shares. Quick: So I was going to say you didn't sell 72 million shares on December 30 and 31st Buffett: No we didn't want to be in that position. Quick: but you had been timing those shares all along and preparing for it. Buffett: exactly and it became you were in a very strong market and as Dow kept moving up we would get more aggressive so towards the end we might have been selling a couple million shares a day when it got up to 56 or some price like that. We were hoping to get out of it, out of the common by the time they sold the common and like I said it worked out to the day we were kind of lucky on that we could have ended up with 10 million shares but we were going to quit obviously when we got to the amount that was going to be handed to us. Quick: Why don't you like Dow or the other chemical shares? Buffett: We've never owned chemical shares. We own a specialty chemical company Ebersol a chemical common stock we own we bought the preferred stock of Dow because we wanted a preferred position and we held it. It was kind of interesting we bought that stock in July of 2008, the preferred and they were going to acquire, Dow was going to acquire Rohm & Haas and they needed money for it and then the world fell apart in the fall and Dow wanted to get out of the contract, they sued Rohm & Haas to get out of the contract but it was held that they had to stick with it. So we closed the deal to buy the preferred stock in April of 2009 by which time the market had totally disintegrated the time we closed that we bought $3 billion worth it probably wasn't worth tops more than 60 cents on the dollar so we showed up with $3 billion for something that was worth $1.8 billion at the time which is one reason why people offer us deals they know we will be around at the closing. We showed up for the Wrigley closing too that was on October 4 or something but during that whole period we had commitments and that kept me from doing some other things we might have done at that time. The fact that we had this $3 billion going out the door Quick: What did you ultimately end up making on Dow Chemical shares. Buffett: we ended up making about a billion dollars and plus we had an 8.5 percent coupon those years. Quick: You made a billion even before the preferred dividend that was paid? Buffett: We had a billion dollar of capital gain very roughly, and then we had $255 million a year dividends during the time we owned it."