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KCLarkin, if you believe at all in your answer and are intellectually honest then you will redo the same exercise between Norway and Sweden which you have ignored from my post. Cardboard

What is this recent phenomenon: I have the scientists behind me so I am undoubtedly right? Scientists have been wrong on masks. They dismissed them at first and I was shaking my head. My logic was simple: Are they not required by personnel at every surgery? If you can't "spit" on people doesn't that remove a huge fraction of transmission risk? So obviously they were wrong. Thankfully they reversed their stance but, how many got infected or died because of their error? That wasn't Trump's fault by the way. So I trust them but, verify and scientific discovery has been more like trial and error throughout history. Regarding the virus, we learned a lot since its appearance and a fact is that it is a lot less deadlier on young and healthy people than originally feared. To ignore this is going against science. To the pro-lockdown folks, we missed it. The opportunity was in March and a lockdown similar to what they have done in China: identity all affected, isolate, disinfect, cure. I cannot say that I fully trust their numbers but, my eyes on the ground indicate no people that I know sick or having been sick and them being fully work operational. These partial lockdowns being implemented are sure to fail because they do not catch all infected and transmission remains a factor. It simply tries to spread the virus overtime at a terrible and lengthy cost to society while its efficacy can be seriously questioned looking at Sweden statistics vs its neighbors and yes between New York State and Florida. Cardboard

Uncertainty will now return big time. There will be a runoff vote in Georgia and we see how this is going for the Presidency... Then you have purple Senators like Collins of Maine capable to swing the balance. Cardboard

QQQ puts. Triple top, all lower than preceding one. Cardboard

It now boils down to Michigan and Nevada. Trump wins one and he is in but, trails both currently by a small margin. Democrats would be harsh on tech companies with Crazy Warren likely to hold a high position such as Treasury Secretary. Higher taxes, anti-monopoly stance, consumer protection, lots of red tape, etc. Not looking too good for banks either. Restaurants would be a high hit area and so is hospitality with pro-lockdowns shutting down the economy. Cardboard

Covering? We are looking at a triple top with all lower than preceding one. I am thinking about buying puts here with VIX way down and pattern mentioned above. As I mentioned previously, economic impact of various lockdowns, large layoffs, no stimulus for a while, no major earnings release and no 2nd Zoom like boom in the Spring will make macro-economics to deteriorate and be major focus post-election. Cardboard

The difference is that people in the Midwest normally use their brain to price-in real estate while people on West Coast (same for Toronto and Vancouver by the way) use their rear view mirror of price appreciation. I was doing the math with a friend yesterday and in Toronto, the average rent to property value is around 2.6% right now. This doesn't cover expenses and certainly not capital repayment. Thesis is all built on price appreciation and with such high leverage on most residential real estate loans is a recipe for disaster on any decline in value. By the way, rents are heading down to in places like San Francisco. Watchout below! Cardboard

Look at the stock market over last few days and I am noticing a big shift from techs to investments. Please note that I am not using terms of growth to value since some decent growth stocks now trade like value and many boring but, perfectly fine businesses have been trashed. It has definitely been a beauty contest where charts have driven everything pushing logic out the window. So I think that Hamblin could excel going forward. As Prem mentioned in call, portfolio returns were only down in 4 years of their existence. Every year afterwards showed a nice return. Buffett is 90 years old and Munger even older so where is the enthusiasm coming from once they are gone or not leading the show? Who is going to make calls on acquiring large companies? Portfolio could be all right but, size is such no one can really add value vs indexes. I would fear a growing discount. BAM has been a favorite. I don't see the discount vs other investments to attract me even in RE.SPG looks miles better to me and more enterprising investors can look at a JBGS. Renewables investing has been hot while rate of returns on these utilities is poor. Chance for capital mis-allocation is very high. Preferred leverage thar may disappear, etc. Actually it is way worst than EdperBrascan as this one could go BK with a few things going wrong. Cardboard

Yeah just like it seems so hard for someone who claims to be so smart that trending towards 100% taxation leads to $0 government revenue. Cardboard

Smart move on Friday's calls. I have a feeling that we will get some election relief rally. So I am holding off on buying back puts. At that point virus, lockdowns, stimulus will become the topic with no new earnings announcements to speak of. Lots of layoffs announcements which have started will have large impact. People (mostly Democrats) have talked about civil unrest and a key worry right now. I doubt very much that anything will happen since if election is tight the newsflow will be very slow as votes are counted or re-counted. People riot in the streets based on shocks or one-time event. Not things that take weeks to settle. If a Biden landslide, it will be quiet. If a surprise big Trump win: same. So macro will become key after election "noise" or market distraction and nothing really different will happen over next few months weather it is Democrats or Republicans, Senate, Congress or what not. A double dip seems in the cards. Cardboard

I would be really careful with Brookfield. This is spaghetti like structure with leverage at rates that would disappear at existing terms on any sign of trouble in financial markets. I recall the days of Edper Brascan, big conglomerate discount, hate by market for holding things like Noranda. Now it holds office buildings, hyped up renewable infrastructure, soon 100% of Genworth or mortgage loan insurer in biggest bubble ever in Canada or overtaking Nortel, JDS Uniphase, etc. When you hear can't lose stocks by fund managers you gotta to pay attention. Cardboard

It was mentioned that there was not enough analyst/institutional participation in latest conference call. Well, let me tell you that Fairfax is now broadly followed vs back in the days when there was no conference call, very little to no analyst coverage and never a mention on TV. I now frequently hear questions about it on BNN and the investment community all know who they are. RBC remains quite positive on them: "02:07 PM EDT, 10/30/2020 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital has kept its Outperform on Fairfax Financial after the company reported a Q3 that was better than forecast. Fairfax Financial reported a Q3 2020 net earnings per share of $4.44 vs. earnings of $2.04 last year. Results included $(27.3) million of net realized and unrealized losses on investments. On an operating basis, which excludes these items, the company earned $2.84 per share (RBC forecast was $0.50). The accident-year margin improved 580 basis points year-over-year while NWP growth was 12.6%. The overall combined ratio amounted to 98.5% vs. 97.5%, better than RBC's 101.5% forecast. Total cat losses were $361.8 million, 10.1 combined ratio points (RBC estimate $294 million). Within this total was a $143.2 million (4.0 points) impact from COVID-19 (RBC estimate $50 million) vs. the $308.1 million impact in Q2/20. On an accident-year basis, the company had a combined ratio of 90.4%, much better than RBCe 96.2%." I would also like to point out the following fact from a few months ago. Actions do speak louder than words and this is material buying: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fairfax-chairman-prem-watsa-spends-nearly-us-150-million-to-buy-more-shares-1.1451233.amp.html Cardboard

Yeehah! Sold all puts at a nice profit. However, what to buy now to hedge? Maybe that Einhorn is right and bubble is finally deflating? Some charts are starting to look real ugly with breakdowns and valuation remain high while Democrats are talking about tax hikes. Whatever you think politically this cannot be considered an earnings accelerator but, brakes. Problem with puts is price due to high VIX. I need to revisit Monday as I would not be surprised to see market rebound. We are more into complacency phase as Einhorn puts it vs panic. Cardboard

Well.... After being out for maybe a decade, I bought some today. Obviously, the market likes results considering the rest of the market today. I believe it is justified since they have managed a decent combined ratio with a pretty nasty hurricane season, fires and Covid related losses. Investment wise, these guys must be defensively positioned with their take on Nasdaq and now that they will reverse their stance on U.S. with a pro-taxation government likely coming in. To keep it simple, I received recently my auto and home insurance renewals and prices are going up. Not much I could do either trying to negotiate lower with current company or competitors. This trend should continue and if they can only avoid losing money on portfolio side, I believe that they will be better off than competitors. Price is right or well below book. Seems right to me. Cardboard

"Will Trump lockdown, or preserve his legacy by staying open no matter what. The market seems to fear a shutdown, but perhaps that doesn’t happen till January? Predictions anyone?" He will launch a nuclear war and sanitize the world. Cardboard

"Per capita, Ontario has 1/3 the daily cases compared to the U.S." Per capita, Vermont has less than half of Ontario daily cases. Please explain? Cardboard

QQQ Nov 6 puts. It is highly risky since really short duration and many big tech guys report tonight. My view is that there is a price for anything and techs have over-extended that boundary. The Microsoft experience of Tuesday following release does not seem to have sinked in with investors yet or not beating enough expectations. We will see. Then we got the election next week which is not adding to certainty. No stimulus for now. Countries going into lockdown. There has been a big boom from working from home but, now many layoffs are hitting multiple industries while government free money is drying out. Hard to see booming demand in coming months. Cardboard

"But the REAL problem the US has right now is Trump has, in his usual style, thrown gasoline all over the efforts and communication from virus experts and health care professionals. There is no unified approach. The US is learning that having an arsonist in charge can be lethal." I look at Quebec with 1,000 new cases a day for a place of 7 millions, with masks being enforced with fines in place, no gathering permitted, restaurants, gyms closed in majority of Province, a government that has plexiglass between 3 top government officials at every press conference, highly left leaning. Meanwhile, Vermont next door to Quebec reports 29 cases a day. But, yeah Trump must be the issue.... Cardboard

We have heard about SoftBank in early September making big options bets on tech stocks and there is also the Robin Hood crowd apparently buying calls but despite , how could the VIX be this high? Normally on a day like today, with markets not that far from record highs, you would expect a VIX in the high teens while here we are at Lehman Brothers like level??? Cardboard

If you wrote down what you say and do, you could have a bestseller on the topic. Cardboard

Every 100 years or so, some pandemia comes along. Last time we were around 1.8 billion and it killed 3-5%, not infected. Today we are 7.8 billion. To the endless worriers of this thread let me tell you that you are wrong. Some will die from this, with over 90% due to pre-existing conditions based on data and vast majority will make it through. Will I? Cannot tell. I won't try to catch it but, if you think that you will improve overall human condition by prolonging the agony then you are very wrong. Cardboard

Then look at Sweden Orthopa. All you have heard on this board on U.S. and Covid are loud mouth Trump haters. Also the same ones who say to listen to scientists like WHO who are doing fuck all to prevent and act more like news anchors. Then same scientists who said masks were no good then now great. Common sense is absent out here.

Have you ever compared populations LC??????

Softbank identified as the 'Nasdaq whale' that bought billions in stock options, betting on higher prices for the biggest names in tech https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/softbank-reportedly-the-nasdaq-whale-that-bought-billions-in-options.html

Of the craziness that we have seen. QQQ was going parabolic with volatility declining massively on chart vs months after bottom while VIX was well above 20 and climbing to 26 or so just before Wednesday reversal. I wonder what Buffett is thinking these days. He has said that it was a mistake not to sell Coke and Gillette in the late 90's when they were trading at 50 times earnings. How much more could you expect of Apple with a $2.2 trillion valuation, trading at 40+ earnings while still a one product company? Icahn was pounding the table and it was trading at 10 times earnings and 7 times adjusted for cash just a few years ago while concerns about Iphone growth and really being its only product of significance. Today no one cares about that. Cardboard