Cardboard

"The problem with that is the polls were wrong on the Senate races too. I don't see how the argument holds up. " If you think that I am wrong then look at the New Hampshire Republican primary polls. Regarding the Senate polls, they never indicated a highly probable loss for the Republicans unlike for Trump. Cardboard

Polls were not rigged. There was such negative press and comments from people such as yourself that people didn't want to be associated with Trump. So do you believe that they all answered that they would vote for Trump when asked? Cardboard

"2016 is such a surreal year." It is the turning point away from tyranny that people like yourself, billionaires and the media have brought on us. All over the world people are saying no more of this BS. The S&P is now up by the way as I suspected and mentioned. Just proof that all these lies from the Left to induce fear was all it was. Cardboard

S&P now down only 1.3% from 5% last night. Oil flat. By 10 am, I would not be surprised if the S&P is up. What is likely to follow is global peace, prosperity, enforcement of laws. Countries will respect each other and no Russia won't invade the Baltics as the Left keeps trying to scare people with and countless other accusations. You should actually be scared that Hillary knew exactly how much time is needed to activate the nuclear arsenal as she mentioned during the 3rd debate. Trump will surround himself with a formidable team again unlike what the Left is telling you. He has a big ego and says inflammatory things but, he is not crazy and knows how to manage people and to build an organization. He is certainly not perfect but, to expect a vastly different result than what I mentioned is Zero Hedge territory. Cardboard

The left has insulted posters here all along this election and it continues... Sad. Cardboard

So far America is saying NO to corruption and the establishment/status quo and YES to pro-growth policies. This down move in equities won't last. Even pigs such as Tepper and Soros love money more than their so called love for the poor via entitlement. Call it more their buying of peace to maintain their status vs true charity. Even if Trump loses we have gridlock blocking the left with Congress and Senate in Republican hands. It is all positive either way. Cardboard

"Welcome back, bsilly. We miss your input on Fairfax." On any topic :) Regarding long term U.S. bonds, have you noticed that they did not move up but, did go down yesterday while everything else did move more or less as expected? That seemed a little strange to me considering that Trump is seen as much more negative to U.S. treasuries. I would have expected some relief rally in that market considering that Hillary would likely keep Yellen and her policies. And they are down again today. So it seems that long term U.S. treasuries will face some headwind going forward no matter who is elected (fiscal stimulus?). They probably made the right move to get out but, I am unclear why they didn't lighten up earlier or this Summer when yields approached new lows and the crowd kept talking about negative yields. Cardboard

Unless the Left unleashes mass demonstrations and riots in the streets, I think it is a positive for the markets. There might be an initial down draft like with Brexit but, people will soon realize that tax cuts, cash repatriation, infrastructure spending will bring about a very big boost to the economy. Regarding tarifs, this won't happen right away if it ever happens. It takes a fair bit of time to renegotiate such complex contracts such as trade agreements. Trump is talking tough but, it may simply allow for more deals with better enforcement. So unless you are a trader, I would not change what you are doing currently. And the inauguration is only in January. Cardboard

"cardboard, is it true that you are a canadian resident, and if so, why are you so invested in the american presidential election?" Yes I am Canadian but, I did live in the Midwest and South for a while. Great people, friends and I love the country. Some could say mind of your own business, but what the U.S. does impacts the entire world. Hence why I am quite interested also. After seeing what happened in Brazil, I also can't believe that Americans are close to elect a known corrupt individual such as Clinton. And since some individuals such as Liberty are over-taking such threads, I don't think it is so bad to have someone trying to bring counter-balancing arguments. So I guess that you should also ask that question to Liberty, RB, Elig and many others that I am missing who are all Canadians and posting at times a fair bit more than I am. And extremely biased. Bottom line is simple: don't become like us or even worst, Europe! While there are positive elements about every location, the U.S. is what it is mainly because of entrepreneurship and a desire to achieve dreams. This cannot be achieved in a country where the government controls every aspect of our lives. Just look at what China has achieved since it did "release" its people. Of course, some things could and should be improved but, a run to the left is a recipe for disaster in the long run. Any student of history should know that. Trump is a bad candidate in terms of persona. No doubt about that. However, a return to center-right is needed after 8 years of heavy left leaning. This works as a pendulum IMO. Based on that what is the other solution? Cardboard

"Cardboard has a habit of trying to silence those that disagree with him." It is more about people posting dozens of posts each day on crap that you can read in the rumourspaper. There is also one guy calling the Heartland, the Intestines. Fortunately, he deleted his post. I guess that I have not gone this low yet. Cardboard

Prairie Provident Resources (PPR-TO). Near debt free, light/medium oil producer (71% liquids), relatively low decline rate of 24% (similar to PWT), good hedge book and with solid room for growth in production with low risk drilling and waterflood. Trades for just under $23,000 per boe/d, 83% of PDP NAV and 37% of 2P NAV. Flowing metric does not include the benefit of at least 500 boe/d that was behind pipes. Most brokerages have a target of around $2 and it trades for $0.86. Cardboard

No it is not either. But, by the sound of his response, he apparently didn't even bother reading the article before posting it: "Who said there was no question asked?" -> “I would have known if there was anything in the magnitude of $100,000.” So no observable damage according to familiar sources, yet the insurance company did cut a cheque for 17 million? Aren't we a bit better than that on this site? Isn't our job as investors to investigate and be on our guard from whatever is presented to us? I am not talking political opinion here or belief in right vs left. This here is lack of common sense. Cardboard

"I'm just linking to an associated press story, if you want more details, ask the journalists." I will say it differently then. Instead of continually posting garbage, use your head! Cardboard

So someone in the Trump organization filed a claim for $17 million and the insurance company sent a cheque with no question asked? No proof of damage, no representative sent on location. :o Seriously Liberty, you may hate Trump, you may think he is a crook, evil, whatever, but do you really believe that kind of crap? Cardboard

FYI, my criticism record on Buffett is very clear and goes all the way back to 2007 or so when he went all in Democrats. That is when he lost a lot of my admiration. Before that, he was my hero since he would bash any illogical policy whomever was in power. He would criticize corporate elites, abuse, etc. Cardboard

"You really like to throw around the word hypocrisy, don't you?" I really do in this case because Buffett is an expert at using the tax code to his advantage. There is no wrongdoing here. It is just that he advocates to tax everyone else but, himself and that is where I have a problem. Regarding the average Joe, do you really believe that they have something against income inequality or it is more around wealth inequality? Cardboard

"Are you saying unrealized capital gains should be taxed? That would be going much farther than Buffett. He's never suggested that as far as I know." I guess that you have to if you want to really address the inequality that he seems to be talking about and tax the mega-rich. Otherwise it is hypocrisy plain and simple. Said differently, you are ok to tax someone at 40-50% or so who sell businesses regularly but, you are taxing at 0% someone who keeps increasing the value of that business internally without ever selling. I know that there are corporate taxes to somewhat address that but, when Bezos never generates a profit at Amazon or Buffett never sells his Coca-Cola shares or swap P&G shares for Duracell tax free how does that look to you? Cardboard

"What is so tiring about these discussions is the tribalism involved. If this was 2008 every left winger on this board would be agreeing with me about how awful Bush's wars are. They simply can't entertain those views now that their team has had the Oval Office for 8 years. If Trump were to win by some unfortunate miracle the lefties will go back to analysing every bomb that drops again. Which would be a good thing, don't get me wrong, I just wish their principals didn't change everytime the Oval Office changes sides." +1. This is like the Iraq war. Powell made a very convincing presentation that they had WMD's and we knew that Hussein was dangerous after having invaded other countries, killed his own people with chemical weapons and did a ton of atrocities to anyone who was opposed or seen as opposed to him. So invading got a lot of support along with the fear of more terrorism and their association with Hussein apparently possessing WMD's. However, even a regular citizen like myself knew before the war that the country was divided into three religious groups who did not get along very well and that removing the dictator would create a messy power situation. We now know that the decision to invade was a poor one and mainly due to faulty intelligence but, was there more to this? Did they really have faulty intelligence? Bush applying the Johnson strategy of Guns and Butter comes to mind. Now years later, we have Obama and Clinton removing or trying to remove dictators in the Middle East (and I assume that the change of power in Kiev was part of their plan). And Libya and Syria turned out into a massive mess due again to Sunni, Shiite rivalry. Do people ever learn anything or there are too many powerful individuals benefiting from such disasters? Cardboard

"He's not talking about people earning 150-250k, he's talking about the mega-rich and his proposal only applies to those earning more than 1m and 10m and the goal is to bring their levels back closer to what other people who aren't getting special breaks pay." Liberty, the mega-rich do not earn between 1 and 10 million a year. They make billions each year. Tax carried interest at regular rate if you want and you would catch guys like Tepper which I think is the right thing to do. However, you are still not touching the Gates, Buffett, Zuckerberg, Bezos of the world and that is where the big money is. The real mega-rich. The ones who see billions in appreciation of their wealth each year but, don't pay taxes and will never pay a cent on it. Regarding Buffett paying for all his private jet usage, I think that it is being naïve a bit. How many meetings a year does he have to go to for business, then ends up spending the week-end somewhere to try out a new golf course? Also, when you are as famous as he is, you don't have to pay for restaurants, clothing and other things. The merchants are more than happy to give it away for publicity. So unless you are a big gambler, like expensive jewelry, cars, multiple homes, it gets pretty hard to spend money when you are in shoes like his. Cardboard

"the motives have been always been noble" Do you really believe that? IMO, it should be further corrected to: the motives have been almost always for the pursuit of American interest. Cardboard

"But for those making more than $1 million — there were 236,883 such households in 2009 — I would raise rates immediately on taxable income in excess of $1 million, including, of course, dividends and capital gains. And for those who make $10 million or more — there were 8,274 in 2009 — I would suggest an additional increase in rate." None of that would impact Buffett or most of the mega-rich (Bezos, Zuckerburg, Gates) in any meaningful way and would hurt a lot of people taking a lot of risk (smaller businesses) who create new jobs. If Buffett truly find unfair the current system and that the mega-rich are raking in too much here is what he should propose instead: A tax on any yearly appreciation (or break on depreciation) of wealth above $100 million. Cardboard

"It would seem that for presidents as for investors it's all about timing. If only Bush had gotten out a year earlier ;) Clinton gets the award for a well-timed exit." Exactly! Lot's of luck and bad luck into this. Obama spent almost his two terms blaming Bush or whenever people mentioned that growth from the recovery was too slow. Bush inherited a gigantic deflating bubble. On a stock market standpoint, the internet bubble was 10 times worst than 2007-2008. You can go back to Prem Watsa's annual letters and he could not believe that the bubble was re-inflating in 2004 or so. So the money moved out from the stock market to the housing market and that bubble had also started by the way in the 90's. If people want to blame someone for the current 16 year malaise (secular bear), don't look at Presidents but, at Mr. Alan Greenspan. This guy did everything to appease every crisis (Greenspan Put) unlike his predecessor Mr. Volcker who did his basic job. Do you think it was easy or popular to raise interest rates like mad to kill off inflation in the early 80's? And to this date or appeasing every crisis is how the system continues to operate. Cardboard

"he's saying that the current tax system is full of loopholes and exceptions and deductions and weird incentives, and that when you add it all together, it just so happens that the very wealthy are favored compared to say, the middle class, and that he doesn't think this is a good thing for the country because it breeds resentment against capitalism and the wealthy, among other issues." Buffett: "Change it now, I am almost dead anyway and I want to be remembered as a Saint hence why I am supporting the Democrats and pushing for this. And it won't affect me in any measurable way." If Buffett was a Republican, they would likely compare him to the Koch Brothers even if he acted identical. Personally, I stand with Thomas Petterfy. The guy gets it. Cardboard

"Personally, I don't have a problem with the concept of superdelegates as they are the people who have actually worked with the candidates." So you don't have a problem with some who make the decision for other people? That would be anti-democratic, no? Here is the problem. If people perceive that voting for Sanders is a lost cause then it will influence the polls. And if polls are influenced then popular voting is also impacted. By the way, I actually much prefer Hillary to Saunders. Cardboard

I have been critical of Buffett on taxes well before Trump was even a candidate in the primary. You can check my record. He is one of the best examples that I have seen on not in my backyard. If Buffett was so convinced that giving more money to the government via higher taxes is an effective use of capital and how to resolve our societal issues, then he would not hesitate for a second to give some of his Berkshire shares to the government instead of charities of his choosing. Please try to forget Trump and Hillary for a moment. Why isn't he? Cardboard