SharperDingaan

Bernie thing ... He merely points out that what is going on in Gaza, is just wrong; and that keeping quiet for fear of being branded antisemitic is not racist; it is simply not acquiescing to what is going on, and recognising that when millions of people around the globe similarly speak up, change is much more likely. It's rebellion, and a propagandist nightmare. The propagandist (warlord, extremist) solution is to fan the fear of antisemitism, as the more perceived antisemitism the diaspora experiences, the more support it generates at home; the state exists so that Jewish people everywhere have a safe 'home', and see! - it is clearly needed, and it takes money/weapons to support. Cast speaking out on Gaza as antisemitic, the Bernie's as doddering fools, and the student protests around the world as threats .... seem familiar? Much as in playoff hockey, occasionally there are teams/players that lose it, and insist on playing rough. Elbows/sticks go up, the hits get harder, and individuals get targeted, to get the message across - give it a rest. It persists, injuries climb, eventually either the player or the team loses the playoff round, everyone walks away with bruises, and the remaining playoff games for the winning teams are less than they could be. Gaza atrocities/synagogue targeting are just different manifestations of rough hockey; nobody wins. No dog in this, other than a ceasefire will instantly drop the price of o/g. If it also results in fewer deaths, and more people retaining their limbs, so much the better. Field treatment and prosthetics have come a long way, but its better never to require one. SD

Thank you. I just have experience with other very good conscript armies that are similar. When everything is going your way there are no issues, but when it gets to the things that will be very hairy, it's typically the professionals that are sent in and not the conscripts. When its too hairy even for the professionals, it's the mercenaries. Not a bad thing, it's simply commanders trying to protect the conscripts from the worst of the horrors that are about to happen; not a lot different to rescue workers pulling mangled bodies out of car wrecks on the side of the highway. But when there aren't enough professionals left, and the conscripts have to go; things can go badly, and very quickly. And if the other guy doesn't have the professionals either, it becomes a sociopath breeding ground; with the worst offenders have amazing survivability. Those sociopaths escape .... and you get the crop of future dictators. Great faith in the IDF, but it has been a long war and there has been a lot of dehuminization already. Rafah will leave a lot scars, and atrocities are unavoidable. Best all round if it doesn't happen. SD

Media has long been just another propaganda medium, with the reward going to whoever can best control the channel. We're just accustomed to an earlier time when the technology was in its infancy, and the media were state broadcasters (PRAVDA, BBC, etc.) Today,technology has 'democratised' the channel; by broadening the number of swim lanes, and reducing the barriers (journalistic standards) between lanes. Today's compelling, live-time, unsubstantiated you-tube video is driven by network effect, and carries as much weight as the press release from an esteemed source; but is seen by many more, and in real time. And with imagery that used to come from a Hollywood studio, now manipulated via AI, and in real time. The technology may change; but the objectives/techniques remain the same, and are now harder to hide. However, should an enterprising lad be able to recognise some of the manipulation techniques? he/she could do very well ..... If you're going to do investing you need to add propaganda expertise to your skill set, and its right up there alongside the CFA. SD

The only folks who fear peace are the warlords, and the extremists; as without a continuous war in Gaza, there is no place for them. They are of course, still free to eliminate each other via the long-standing state-on-state shadow wars, but one has to think that the Gaza war itself is coming to an end; as it's just too costly to maintain. SD

Peace .... and an end to 7-months of war. SD

Too bad, the press reports otherwise ... https://ca.news.yahoo.com/israel-gaza-live-updates-idf-074412294.html Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of the Hamas movement, said in a statement the group has called the prime minister of Qatar and Egyptian minister of intelligence "and informed them of the Hamas movement's approval of their proposal regarding the ceasefire agreement." SD

Keep in mind that as long as the Gaza war remains ‘over-there’, the western world can just wring its hands, and send weapons/money. Different story when it’s ‘here too’, on campuses all over the world; and much more effective when the targets are the kids of the wealthy - with disproportional influence. It is a simple matter to divert Israeli bound artillery shells, rockets, bullets, etc. to the Ukraine which desperately needs them; and straight forward to ‘delay’ gasoline and money flows as well. It is also hard to prosecute a strike for any length of time with limited reserves, and a horrific daily burn. Over the weekend, Hamas offered peace and an end to the war; the only reason the war continues today is because Israel chose to walk away in favour of a strike on Rafah. Hot pursuit is defensible, whereas this? …. not so much. Cut off the oxygen, and even a warlord can only live for so long. SD

A great many combatants and civilians died during WWII simply because there was nowhere else for them to go; carpet bombing and getting shot for refusal to fight being the norm. Not a lot different from a Palestinian trapped in Gaza today, and an IDF conscript balking at comitting a potential war crime in Rafah, because they were ordered to. Not the message the propagandists have in mind. SD

Check the Jordan Times against Al Jazeera, for a pretty good take on the Arab street; The Times of Israel for the other side. Just keep in mind that the nuttier Israel gets, the harder the Israeli propaganda will be. The Israelis are about to experience a world of hurt for walking away from the peace talks. Expect the IDF to be branded as 'baby killers', with lurid pics of naked dead/starving Gaza infants at the feet of actors dressed in IDF uniform. Expect the IDF to be branded 'out of control' with lurid examples of units made up of particular sects committing war crimes in the settler communities. Expect comparisons of the IDF vs the German Army under the control of Hitler; they didn't act either, and it wiped out millions of the Allied/Axis population - the same as the deliberate famine/disease in Gaza. Then add the new IDF casualties from the Rafah offensive, where the intent will be as much maiming as possible. Whatever ones view; this worked very well during the Vietnam era, and in 2024 the targets will be Israeli students on American campuses (new hostages). Served in the IDF before school? baby killer. Haven't served yet? draft-dodging coward. How long before the parents of those privileged students make themselves felt? They need a way out, and the sooner the better. SD

Just to stir the pot ...... For the next 2-5 years FFH is in a fluid opportunity window, after which the game is going to largely 'set' for a good decade plus. Today FFH has excess capital, the low multiple, established beach-heads, and relatively small size going for them; but once WEB passes, one has to think that it will be very different. Most would expect the 'Buffet of the North' thing to drive up the multiple; if only because one USD BRK share goes for a lot more than one CAD FFH share. As the 'mantle' will also make it much harder to buy anything at a reasonable price, the beach-heads will also need to already be in place; and FFH will primarily have to extract value via growing their various equity investments, versus seeing them only as trading bits of paper. Nothing new for FFH; but it has its own risks. BRK is great, but it's primarily old businesses operating the old way; whereas in today's world, the operational technology is very different, far more productive, and highly trans-formative. Tech that FFH will have to be involved in, and will benefit mightily from, as it finances the turnover of capital stock in its long-term equity investments. Tech that is going to include crypto; whether it be for settlement, secure record storage, or tamper proof titling (India). A future so bright, I gotta wear shades (Timbuk3 song). The India/BRIC thing is great, but it's a multi-decade thing, and largely a wash. As that great Indian investment that shot the lights out in local terms, looks very different when assessed in USD terms; and 'association' will periodically cost more than it adds. Not a bad thing, but a source of volatility and a cost of doing business. So what? Have to think that for the next 2-5 years, maybe this is the time to buy 5 shares, for every 4 sold .... and if that accumulation can be paid for primarily via house money - so much the better May we all do well! SD

Agree it will continue to exist but the amount in circulation will progressively be reduced. Friends laugh at this as there is still a need for pay for the drugs and black market activity - and little does it better than cash! SD

Fees. Cash is totally anonymous, and CBDC is free to use with near instant settlement; layer 2 ... not so much. SD

Keep in mind that BTC is a single security and already has a market cap in the global top 10-15 names. If one believes that a halving doubles the value of BTC every 4-yr cycle, it will not be that many years before BTC has the largest cap of all (& then some). And if BTC is programmed to double every 4 years ... the un-leveraged 4-year CAGR to beat is 18.97%. The reality is that in every nation, a BTC-ETF is very likely never going to value at anything much different to the most common fiat bill in circulation (assume $20 bill in the US). If Joe Sixpack wants to spend, he would simply hold the $20 as either a bill or as US CBDC. If Joe wants to save he would simply hold the $20 as a US BTC-ETF, immune from inflation. As and when the value of BTC to the value of supported US BTC-ETF issued periodically exceeds $20, there is simply a unit split. Long term we have a similar view to rkbabang, but with perhaps more against bonds. Real estate can be nationalised/seized at any time, whereas bonds can easily be denominated in BTC to facilitate creation of today's Euro-Dollar and Euro-Yuan market equivalents. Also the higher that BTC goes, the safer it gets. BTC at 40T is 1.9M per BTC. Essentially the currency for government to government settlement, that displaces reserve currency. SD

Gotta love the smell of napalm first thing in the morning (Apocalypse Now, 1979); BTC at USD 57,500 and falling. By now, retail around the world has discovered that BTC/BTC-ETF's are no longer marginable, and that margin accounts with BTC are either getting sold out, or the BTC in them severely sold down. Daily capital flow into crypto is now negative, the margin restriction has diverted money-laundering elsewhere, and it has put a hold on the inclusion of BTC in corporate Investment Policy Statements. It is also no longer worth borrowing against BTC to pay the monthly mining bills, and the current crop of Chinese BTC-ETF launches ... have strong incentive to withdraw from the market and 'relaunch' in 6 months. And this is just BTC ..... not crypto in general; have to think that BTC is going a lot lower .... Lot of those who sold into the halving are looking at potential swing trade gains in the five digits; they also aren't going to be in a hurry to buy back in. Interesting times. SD

Very good! SD

Seldom talked about is that this can ALSO drive very predatory behaviour which needs to be controlled. You may believe that XYZ is a very good 2-5 year investment that you should be exposed to (anchor), but if you're swing trading XYZ; it's a very stupid idea to both excessively wait on your repurchase (predatory), and reinvest swing gains in additional XYZ (predatory). You need to piss off the house, and take the swing gains out of the market entirely. Lot of folks have done very well selling out BTC in the run up to the halving. Were they to buy back today, they would be up another un-leveraged 16%+; but were they to simply buy back two-weeks out (after the Chinese BTC-ETF take-up is better known), it could well be 20%+. I.E: Predatory delay of BTC repurchase to force miners to sell BTC collateral early, and to force price down via a lower demand expectation and higher supply .... the market at work But if you put that one month 20% gain into additional BTC, only the house would win. Whereas if you took it off the table entirely, and parked it in treasuries ... it will be available for when the house eventually errs (Nash Game Theory)... and needs to make an offer that cannot be refused; by even the mighty! (GS/WEB preferred share offering). If it never happens, no big deal; ...... but if it does, and you're there; Lenny, ..... you're made for life! Play your own game. SD

The more meat for the pot the merrier! However, ideally not all of them as roadkill ... as there's only so much chilli that one can put with! SD

A worthwhile read, with results that are not unexpected. However, there are actually 3 BTC markets, not 2. On-chain, off-chain (Lightning network, stable coin, BTC-ETF, etc), and derivatives (OTC and non-OTC); the silence around the derivatives market speaking volumes. The markets are also stratified, and facilitate money laundering; (1) Borderless BTC but subject to the 'influence' of the big holders, (2) semi-borderless BTC options/futures (US exchange [CME], borderless (but known) buyers/sellers, (3) less borderless BTC-ETF that is largely confined within the host nation. Money laundering via real estate is visible at scale, but much less so via crypto; all those empty towers in the desert and new cities in Asia being prime examples. Rather than fight it (venereal disease approach), money laundering is simply co-opted to benefit everybody - as volatility to trade against (the largest money launderers in the world are nation states) Less borderless as a US BTC-ETF can be pledged as collateral for a non USD loan. Authorities know who you are, but can lean on the lender at any time to seize the collateral - Russia (JP Morgan) and China (Binance) as more recent examples. We live in interesting times. SD

Quite agree! for the next few years Europe is fine for vacation. But as pointed out, if you want to do the more 'exotic' stuff (Trans Siberian, Orient Express, etc.); get it done, or risk losing the opportunity - which may not come round again during your remaining go-go/slow-go years. I have been waiting for years to finish travelling overland from London to Capetown via the old 'Red Route'; but so long as the Sudan conflict continues - one has to overfly the Sahara crossing, and there is no overland travel to Abu Simbel from the Ethiopian highlands (source of the Nile) via the desert. When we can visit anytime, we take it for granted; and assume the destination will always be there, and/or look the same. We just recognise that the world is changing, and it wouldn't hurt to be a lot more appreciative of our current abilities. SD

The down-side to this is that senior officials have begun talking about a 'pre-war' stage; and war occurs in Europe about every 70+ years (i.e: overdue). 2%+ spending targets have now become priorities (Russia/Trump effect). And seem to be getting met through ramped up new weapons production (shells, drones, rockets, etc.), logistics rotating through existing hot zones for 'practice', and a build-up of mass deployable 'inventory' outside of domestic budget controls (US/Ukraine), etc. Alongside quiet re-militarisation of Germany and Japan. Not a bad thing; but if you want to get that European travel in .... do it sooner rather than later. SD

Miners have incentive to borrow against their stash to pay the bills. Bankers have incentive to lend out the collateral via derivatives. As long as the miner can continue to pay the interest, everyone wins. But some miners are going to get liquidated, their stashes increasing the BTC float and lowering the BTC price. However, the obvious buyers have no incentive to buy, as all they need do is simply wait on puts to get assigned; and short (via CME options/futures) on the way down .... for a few extra bucks. SD

Nah ... I'm just ahead of everyone else The whole currency thing is that if you can pay for something with it, it's a form of cash; we just don't like the form. Could be USD, bricks of cocaine, hi-tech chips/weapons, oil, 'influence', or BTC; whichever is 'best' depends upon the purpose. Materially changing valuation is the norm, not the exception. SD

Doesn't really happen though; think of a cash holding in BTC/BTC-ETF. If you think your cash/BTC is going to be worth more next year (by at least inflation) you would be inclined to HODL .... but in reality, the cash/BTC is going to be swing traded around a core holding; hopefully for gains that will be spent within the next year. But ..... while the gains are free money, they are only going to be 'spent' as long as they are relatively small (low spending bar); the reality is that the larger gains are going to be 'invested' ... in new truck/car, mortgage repayment, house upgrades, more bonds, etc (high spending bar). But what when the cumulative gain to date has become so large, that you have now both paid off everything, and established the family 'pile' for generations to come? ... any further gains are now destructive to both you and your family. The gains get given away ... ideally on something lasting and worth while. It used to be that cash (at best) earned a real return of 0-1%; but in the BTC age ... 50%+ year is not that unusual. Changes the whole perspective. SD

Nobody is indispensable - even Julius Caesar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Julius_Caesar SD

If there is going to be a lasting peace, there is going to have to be a 2 state solution; as/when there are 2 states, this will be a non-issue. After last night's fiasco, one has to think the current coalition government is done; it has now been 6 months+ since the Oct 09 attack, and the blood-lust has to be pretty much over. SD