SharperDingaan

Charts are just 'market' predictions on what may happen next; as it's an art, it's wiser to take the consensus opinion. Thereafter there is a need to follow good audit practice; 'trust, but verify!'. Do you get a similar directional outcome forecasting what may happen next ... via a totally different approach?; if so, you have something. What you do with it, depends on your experience and risk tolerance; maybe 30% of all who have the opportunity, will actually execute on it. SD

BTC at USD 74,540. Today, if you could buy back a BTC position, would you buy back the same quantity, or less ? Most would buy back less, so as to allow for a later purchase at a hopefully lower price . That 'usual' 5% portfolio weighting temporarily now only returning to 3-4%, resulting in a portfolio rotation of 1-2% out of BTC. Treasurers hold BTC for the positive carry (gain on sale at a higher price), and use derivatives to exit and enter at progressively lower prices; spiking price volatility around contract expiry dates. Markets are also driving Investment Policy refreshments to reduce the maximum weighting to BTC, all reducing corporate/state/municipal treasury demand for BTC. One has to think that most miners and BTC treasuries are now at break-even, or below. For most, new cash raised will be going into margin reduction, to mitigate against a partial forced liquidation of BTC collateral. Absent a new demand, new BTC treasury purchases are likely to be limited until there is certainty around the 'bottom'. The rise from USD 60,000 to USD 120,000 was all about adoption. Approval/introduction of the BTC/ETF, marketing of the 5% weighting towards BTC, acceptance of BTC as a corporate/state/municipal near cash equivalent, dispersion into stable-coin versus just BTC lowering the entry price to new entrants. Most of this now pulling back ... but the demand for BTC remains dispersed. Lower lows that might otherwise be the case. We may not like what Burry has to say, or think he's out of touch on some of the specifics; but he may well be directionally correct. Doesn't mean that the utility of BTC is diminishing ... simply that it is becoming available at better value. Precisely what a 'value investor' would want . SD

Had this experience as well .... with a few twists First 6 months to burn off appointment time and do 'assessment'; then 12 months doing 'Chainsaw Al', 12 months in real projects, and 6 months of misery. Replacements that were almost always only there for short term resume building purposes, replaced in turn by pretty much the same old mentality .... just 25 years younger! Today, pretty much all our volunteer efforts are now done via the brewery. The brewery puts up $X of seed capital, and a paid week of volunteer time for all production staff (small number); staff decide how, and who gets what. Most often the $ funding a stake in a collaborative contract brew for experience/exposure, and the resultant profit added to the volunteer fund. The result has been a line up of referrals/collaborators who would like to work for us SD

We do well either way SD

Lot of possibilities, whether something is done will depend upon the systemic threat at the time. Near a day later, BTC is still only USD 77,300; could go a lot lower some hours from now on Asian margin calls, and contagion that spreads into Monday's NA opening. The Fed is currently doing around 40B/month of liquidity injection, as creditors choose not to roll over their USD denominated debt; this would raise it further. Hoping for an additional sizeable liquidity injection, so that treasuries can sell debt to raise cash for more BTC purchases ... may not be the wisest thing. While an additional injection is one thing, it really needs creditors to also roll their maturing debt for the next little while. Why should we help you .... when you are also putting tariffs on our trade? Karma is such a bitch We're just pragmatic; hence we look primarily at the downside, vs the near term probability of an intervention occurring. The big win for us is a repurchase, just before there is an intervention, a resultant dead cat bounce, a resale, and a repurchase some weeks later. Rationale, but not what many would call 'investing' Take care. SD

2 weeks in Madeira inclusive of a few days in Lisbon on the way in/out of Toronto. Based a little east of Funchal, hiking all over the island, swimming the gulf stream everyday, and visiting church! (Ronaldo museum in Funchal). As it's world cup this year, and I'm a volunteer at the Toronto events .... it seems an obvious 'must do' This will be the first leg of a multi-leg bucket trip across Africa, with the next leg in Morocco come winter next year. I have been informed that we will be hiking/doing the Greek Islands comes Fall SD

Every BTC treasury will be long some quantity of BTC puts to protect their stack below a catastrophic fall of 'X'. The premium paid as a form of insurance. Thing is, it assumes that 1) the counter party can actually pay the daily MTM gain, and 2) the exchange (CME) can pay it if the counter party fails. To minimise the liability the exchange uses both daily margin settlement, and a % collateral cushion .... that rises in time of stress. Thereafter, failure to meet the margin call, is an immediate forced liquidation .... first loss, being the smallest loss. MSTR seems to have recognised the exposure, hence the very large cushion they now maintain. The other big names ... not so much. Some will have both margined against their stack, AND received more if they used puts to protect the minimum value of the stack. Take away confidence in the collectability of ongoing margin calls, and it can go very badly, very quickly .... Point is, do nothing, and the fall in the price of BTC accelerates until there is a workable intervention ... that may/may not work. The old fashioned piles of gold in the window, to prevent a bank run. Everyone sees the possibility of BTC at 50K on the charts, but doesn't really believe it. We just see how it might happen. Different strokes. Ideally it doesn't happen, but we prefer to be pragmatic. Get it right and it could well be life changing. SD

Tombstone post: BTC @ USD 77,777; roughly the MSTR cost base. Posts that one of the MSTR rivals currently has 5B+ of losses; their ETH may well be gone by Monday night. Absent a change, CME options/futures markets open deep in the red on Monday, forcing additional liquidations. I-Banks took 2-days to collapse as the solvency of counter parties couldn't be trusted; repeat performance? Middle East about to enter a shooting war. BTC treasuries are reliant upon trust that participants can meet their CME margin calls; BTC collateral is liquidated so that trust in the counter parties is maintained. As puts are worthless if the counter party cant meet the market call, expect a intervention and/or a sudden and significant jump in BTC supply. It doesn't look good for price. Stunning. All our BTC-ETF was sold when BTC was at USD 81.5K and USD 94K, and reinvested in o/g. Last time it took months until we could profitably unwind the pair trades ... this time around it could well be very, very different ... and there is no need to rush. Given that post intervention/sell off; fiat currencies and bullion may well be suspect for a while, we will probably have to marry BTC-ETF. We still believe, but she's going to come with one hell of a dowry We live in interesting times. SD

+1. Reserve currencies 'in transition' are managed SD

Academics look at what others do, have little real world experience outside of academia, and try to make sense of the world through static models; tomorrow will resemble yesterday, and nothing changes . The boiler makers do, consume vs produce academia, and go by smell and feel; tomorrow will look nothing like yesterday, and change is constant . Everybody has to sell their ideas; and the 'hot house' is the market, not the lifetime of a grant. Academic privilege cannot be taken for granted, and has to be continually earned; today's disdain reflects that lack of work. SD

Gold had just been rising quicker than oil, which has been range bound for some time. As Iran/Iraq continue to worsen, and as per ME custom, gold has been bought in preparation for a chaotic departure, as Iranian banks are no longer solvent/reliable. The regime change goes well .... gold will sell off quickly as the risk of theft is very high. SD

Look at the CJ thread; there was another positive announcement this morning SD

If you are nimble and have the tolerance, look at a 75/25 IPO/CJ portfolio, that changes to 25/75 nine months out. Both pay a healthy monthly dividend, that will contribute > half of your spending money requirement ... if they happen to run up while you're holding - a bonus SD

I hear that it was a great BBQ SD

Let's just say that Israel's equivalent to Airforce 1/Cabinet evacuation has been repeatedly practised all this week, there are now enough flying tankers in the region to maintain 8-10 hours of continuous attack by a lot of planes, embassies have been quietly pulling out lower level staff and their families, and there have been some seaborne deliveries to key locations. Orange Boy has suddenly started escalating, Iran is digging in, and western markets are closed for two days starting Friday night. Maybe something happens, maybe it doesn't, but it would be foolish not to be prepared. SD

Nobody likes change, it is threatening livelihoods across the board, folks want guarantees when there are none, are anxious, and don't know what to do. The US looks to be tearing itself apart, Americans fleeing north (Vietnam draft dodgers) are no longer camp fire stories told by the elderly , and few have any experience with anything but a lifetime of peace. Trump agreements aren't worth anything; the mitigant is economic diversification and restructuring for this century, vs the old world order. Less of anything to do with the US while Orange Boy remains in office; revisit when he is eventually gone. The disruption is long overdue and not a bad thing, but has largely run its course .... now the 'big cheese' is just stinking up the place! Obviously ... lots of opportunities the more different your life experience has been .... but you're the one-off outlier. Making repeat outsized monthly gains, while your neighbour's are losing their jobs, or being forced to use food banks ... is not a lot of fun. Sadly it means hanging back on a swing trade at times .... even when the 'target' is thoroughly deserving Different strokes. SD

It would be a really bad idea to be short oil and/or gold at the close of market this week . SD

Like it or not, gold is the comparative to BTC, and that isn't going to change over the foreseeable future. It is just different tools for different purposes. Nothing prevents one from owning gold stocks/warrants vs bullion, and swapping back into BTC as opportunities present. The end game is simply more protection; how one gets there depends upon the times. The reality is that the best defence against disruption is bridgeheads built and funded ahead of time; each self contained so that contagion cannot spread. Could be relationships, real estate, bullion, BTC, goods, etc, etc. Realise that 1) while some wealth will get expropriated, you will still be alive, free, and able to start again; 2) there is a lot more value to losing wealth via a bribe, vs expropriation. You can take your BTC with you (spread over multiple wallets); not so much your gold SD

Staring at charts focuses on the days supply/demand for the stock; other than being able to support a marketing 'story', what the company does is largely irrelevant. Buffet focused on DCF valuation, and waiting around until the stock eventually reached the valuation; with no cash flow, value = 0. Different tools, different purposes. To invest in BTC, is to forecast changes in market supply and demand. Opportunities arising when shorter term mania produces a value markedly different to what the longer term supply/demand suggests. SD

Keep in mind that BTC primarily moves on technical analysis .... 'cause the fundamental analysis ain't so hot; whereas with gold, not so much Alt coin if you can't afford BTC, silver if you can't afford gold. Everybody can tell you what will happen if BTC breaks below 'X' .... but almost no one can tell you why. Exploitable SD

Today; BTC is much more just a part of the larger tide, versus the tide itself. The more that garbage pollutes the well ... the lower BTC goes; and that garbage primarily relies upon liquidity within the US market. Sell the US .... isn't a good thing for BTC SD

It has become worth the time to do a deep dive into the major demand and supply for BTC For what should be one of the preferred alternative stores of value to USD, when there is a clear need to be in other than USD, and gold/silver is soaring on the capital flight demand .... yet BTC can't even hold 90K? SD

BTC. The risk-on assets are gold and silver .... yet BTC can't even hold 90K in a strong wind? Opportunity SD

Merely the other side of the same coin in many cases; the angels just wear better suits SD

Once you've been in one, you will never forget how easy it is to use madness to manipulate crowds. Leave the weapons at home; bring goggles/milk instead (tear gas gets into everything), and learn. Couple months later spend some time in a good library, reading hard-copy books on crowd suppression .... minimises the digital footprint SD