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Blugolds

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Everything posted by Blugolds

  1. 56% of imported oil to the US is that low API from the Canadian oil sands... and the problem isnt that Canada cant produce full tilt, they have increased exponentially and ship the surplus overseas... The ability to run very sour crude requires different design/metallurgy at refineries. Increased maintenance and investment...investment that southern refineries may have not made because they didnt have to, if they run sweet feed. So even if the US bought every bit of sour feed the Canadians could give us, we couldnt run it without significant changes/investment made to those large refineries set up to run sweet. There are a few Northern refineries in the country that pull right off the pipeline and are built to run the cheap sour crude from Canada...a significant competitive advantage...pulling first off the pipeline, buying the cheapest feed available, that often doesnt have another buyer because the guys down south cant run it without upgrades. Its nasty stuff and if your design is to run API of 30+ you arent gonna be able to handle feed API of 10...enter the upgraders and synbit, western canadian select ,there are some more modern refiners here in the states that basically upgrade it themselves so they can take the nasty stuff. But there's a little more to it than canada just not producing full tilt. Not just metallurgy, additional process equipment/units, catalyst needs are significantly different etc. "Canada's oil sands production is at a record 3.5 million barrels a day. Most of that is exported to use in the United States, but a growing number of barrels are transiting the country to the U.S. Gulf Coast, where it is then re-exported. In 2021, Canadian exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast averaged more than 180,000 bpd, reaching nearly 300,000 bpd in December" "Production has increased about 3% on average per year through the last decade, and is expected to reach 3 million bpd in 2020, and possibly even 5 million bpd by 2030, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. To put these numbers into perspective, the total world output last year was roughly 85 million bopd, meaning that crude production from the oil sands will make a significant contribution to our current and future energy balance."
  2. I actually got assigned quite a few of those I mentioned over the last couple months…hindsight is again, I should have been more aggressive..but at the time I thought/hoped it would continue to go lower. They weren’t all assigned obviously..but I’m glad some were.
  3. Well, we’re almost neighbors! Spend quite a bit of time up on the north shores of Gitche Gumee, northern WI and MN. I just spent a week in Voyagers National Park, took the boat 16mi back in to an island campsite, enjoyed the northern lights, and ate fresh fish every night. Somehow a snake made its way into the boat (still haven’t figured that one out but made for an interesting couple minutes) checked out Kettle Falls, most enjoyably no cell phones etc work, so its a great way to check out for a bit. 3 of us went in, left Sunday morning, 2 boats, the main boat was a new Lund set up for big water walleyes, the other was a small 14ft oldie with a 25hp Merc…the trip in was fine, clear skies and smooth sailing, hardly any wind…by the time we were ready to go, the weather had changed drastically, tremendous wind, storms and rain, when we left the storms/rains had stopped but the wind was still a little rowdy, I rode in on the newer boat, but when we left, the buddy who was captaining the smaller boat decided that the water was too rough and that he didnt wanna try it, I told him no problem, I would take it back to the visitors center were we put in and he could take it easy in the comfy newer model….. He snapped a pic of me during the trip…. I was completely drenched, I had that little 25hp pegged WFO the whole trip, up/down/left/right, it was pretty much chaos the entire trip back, and it took us about an hour to go the 16mi in good weather, so these waters made for a pretty firm grip on the tiller for a couple hours.. Shortly after I pulled the boat up to the dock, I was sitting there for a minute…kinda glad it was over…and a Sheriffs boat was just pulling in to the slip next to me, he said…”It’s pretty rough out there, you might not wanna head out…” I said…”Head out! I just got in!” Do you know a Dr. Leo Marvin? Where do you have vacation homes? Had two lake cabins on spectate lakes in Northern WI, sale just closed one last Friday, downsizing and prices were high, market in that area has cooled off even since the bringing of summer. The remaining cabin is 2hrs from home, just enough to feel like you’re getting away but not enough to feel like a pain to get there. I’ve built this remaking place from the ground up so its been enjoyable, but generally I don’t like the idea of another property to care for, maintain and feel obligated to go to since its costing money, mostly I like the freedom to try other places and explore so if I end up selling this one as well, I don’t think I would own another vacation place..I can rent Airbnb wherever you want for weeks per year at a cost of less than just the property taxes on a place…don’t get me wrong, it can make sense, I just think I would go a different route. Where are your repeat vacation spots? In-country my favorite is Northern MN, and the western states, primarily Montana. I had family on the east coast and enjoyed regular trips to Maine…it actually reminded me quite a bit of….Northern MN. Internationally, I love Italy, the culture, the history, the food, the architecture…and the “Scenery” isn’t bad either. I swear an Italian 2 > MN 10. What are must see places? (North America vs Internationally) North American National parks are great, my favorite is Glacier NP in Montana, probably followed by Banff NP. International I would tailor to your personal interests..Amsterdam has some interesting history with regard to previous trade, commerce, past world power, naval superiority, Anne Frank house, art, a lot of interesting stuff I enjoyed there, but everyone thinks of drugs and girls (I didnt sample either). Some people love to sit on a beach and drink all day in the sun…to me that is boring so my travels usually involve experiences with historical things, adventures, cultures…I don’t care for tourist traps really, I like to get off the beaten path and experience the area from the locals view if possible. What is your next adventure? Had a trip to Spain/Austria booked that got canceled due to Covid…probably will rebook that one, I have wanted to go to Japan for a while, so thanks to the poster above for recommending Kyoto, I have been almost everywhere that I would like in my “1st tier” choices in the world..I’m now starting to either revisit them or get into the 2nd tier..I seem to always sneak Italy in there, Istanbul is on the short list, probably spend some time in Panama, I have a friend there that I built a 36ft sailboat with, he bought a bed and breakfast there when he retired and has been asking me to come down for a while. I would like to spend some more time in the Nordic countries, Sweden. Finland, Norway….can always use more Hygge.
  4. I felt the same way…tells you all you need to know about what they think of us in the west.. As for signing the bombs…this has been done for years, messages on tanks, helmets, munitions, by those in combat, but to commercialize it for average citizens to me is a bit hypocritical… If Ukraine found out Russians were doing this it would be all over the news, sick demented attackers write messages on munitions that level the country…The fact is that those munitions that the US has already given them, for free…are now used as some fun messaging system for anyone with a couple bucks and are potentially killing Russians…lacks a bit of class to me. This isn’t some game, where any instagramer or YouTuber can pay $40 and have their hashtag put on the side of an artillery shell to me is ridiculous and detracts from the seriousness of the situation. As much as I’d like to see Putin or Kim Jung, or any dictator removed, I wouldn’t celebrate killing Russians.. .
  5. Not to turn this into a western thread but just thought of another classic that Ive seen a hundred times and was one of my favorites as a kid…EL DORADO The DUKE Robert Mitchum James Caan RIO BRAVO was great…Ricky Nelson and Deano did a great job as well… I’ll have to check out Hell or High Water and Bone Tomahawk. I saw the poster for the Hanks one but I guess I didnt see a trailer or realize it was a western…prolly have to check that out too…
  6. I know I've seen it over a dozen times...tons of good one liners from that move..."how is it on stains?"...."Missouri boat ride"
  7. Glad you liked it, I felt the same about Yellowstone, too much BS for me, 1883 to me was more of a "real" western. Always been a fan of westerns although they seem to be lowest on priority for movie/show producers...before Yellowstone/1883 when was the last western movie/tv series? They avg one like every 10 years (couple random no names) ...meanwhile they will make Fast and Furious 25 or some of those other names that are played out but guarantee a base number at the box office...westerns probably just dont put up the numbers...why take a risk producing a western that isnt as popular as it was in the 70's when they can just make (or remake) another show that has a chance of a better return. Been a while since there were good names: Tombstone (one of my favorites) Wyatt Erp 3:10 Yuma Open Range (slow movie till the last gunfight) Lonesome Dove (classic) Unforgiven True Grit (didnt think it was great) Old Henry (I thought that was pretty good) Quentin Tarantino westerns (thought they were decent but not typical westerns obviously) Before that you'd have to go back to Dances with Wolves (one of the best obviously) And then you're into the Clint Eastwood/John Wayne era Outlaw Josey Wales probably my all time favorite. Hoping if 1883 is a hit maybe that will increase, I'd like to see Elliot in more stuff, even though he is getting older he still nails the cowboy role IMO.
  8. Also many employers froze wage increases for 2 years due to the pandemic...only recently reinstating raises to retain employees due to the current labor market to stay competitive and retain workers...so workers missed a couple years worth of raises and now maybe get 3-5%...but over the past 2-3 years they might net 5% total wage increase all coming recently rather than 3,3,3...they got 0,0,3-5...but if they had maintained that 3% each year...they would have been further ahead.
  9. Wrote BRKB puts, July 22 exp, 260 strike, over a buck.
  10. I have an investment for you...here's my pitch $50k initial investment The day you "invest" it will drop $10k (20%) Additionally your investment will NEVER be worth more than $50k it will actually continue to depreciate each year Oh also, there is an ER of 3-4% Any takers? Its all psychological. People apprehensive to put $50k in an account and within 6 months it drops 20% and they panic....same guy has no problem going to a dealership and buying a $50k truck and having it drop $10k as soon as he drives off the lot...not to mention he is paying 3-4% for that "privilege" on the auto loan, and doesnt think twice about it. There are tons of examples of this...people make decisions EVERY DAY that are HORRIBLE investments, some large like auto, boats, campers other toys..and they happily take the hit...some smaller like subscription based sign ups, services, not shopping insurance, home upgrades that they will NEVER get the money back out of etc etc....but when it comes to doing what is actually in their best interest (no pun intended) they act irrationally and get all emotional about it because they see a little red in the account. Put the money in and stop thinking in 6-12mo windows...when you view things through a 5-10 yr lens things look totally different. If you know what you're buying, have done your homework and the ability to stay rational you should do fine. Obviously you need transportation, and not everyone is gonna be rolling around in some 1991 Chevy Lumina ghetto hoopty because its the best ROI...but my point is...people are so emotional about ROI when it comes to the things that are actually capable of giving them a return! But then when it comes to other things that probably make up the majority of their monthly spend, they throw any caution to the wind and dont consider the same metrics. I have a coworker concerned about 401K balances dropping and in the last year they have bought a brand new $70k truck, $50k camper 5th wheel, put in a $100k inground pool, even bought a new $13k commercial lawnmower...thats over a quarter million "invested" that the return will be horrible on...if we're speaking strictly from an investment standpoint...but IVV is down 18% YTD and its got him flustered LOL...I mean come on...sometimes people need to put stuff in perspective..
  11. Buffett knew the moat and knew the business very well. I dont know where you got the above quote comping it to HD...but at one time remember HD bikes were selling for over MSRP before owners even took delivery, they were selling their spot in line for profit. So everything has its heyday. Since the quote calls the company something that appeals to "boomers" did the author go on to recommend AMC, GME or BTC holdings to a solid reliable and predictable investment that has been around for 100 years. Regardless, See's has been a solid investment for BRK, the investment has already paid off and IMO anything now is icing on the cake. https://news.yahoo.com/sees-candies-record-quarter-170456133.html He recognized that See’s had 3 distinct advantages: It possessed a strong built-in customer loyalty moat Its product was so good that customers would tolerate price hikes It required very little operating capital In 1982, Buffett was offered $125m for See’s — 5x the $25m he’d paid for it just 10 years earlier, or a 20% compound annual growth rate. He passed, opting to let the company slowly chug along. Buffett’s rejection of the $125m offer would turn out to be a smart move. Since 1972, the company has given Berkshire Hathaway well over $2B in income. That’s a return of more than 8k%, or 160%+ per year. Over the same time period, the small operation required only $32m in capital to run. “Modest physical growth,” wrote Buffett in 2007, had led to “immodest financial growth.” See’s provided Berkshire Hathaway with a reliable stream of capital that it used to buy into other attractive businesses. In the late 1980s, he used See’s profits to buy Coca-Cola shares, which are now collectively worth more than $25B. Today, See’s Candies sell for $22.50 per pound — about double the 1972 price, after adjusting for inflation — but its customers have remained loyal." As to if the company was publicly traded would anybody own it...that all depends on the price you give for the value you get...just like anything else and at .1% of BRK holdings there are better things to spend time contemplating with regard to BRK IMO.
  12. I guess other states do this as well, they funded a significant portion of the MN Viking stadium thanks to these little fellas.. I don’t gamble either, but its almost a cultural thing, any supper, club, bar, etc has a lady sitting in the corner at the pull tab desk with boxes of these tabs, or tabs in stacks in a machine…each group of tabs containers winners, some could be $1 (your money back) or maybe $500 and some in between…when there is a winner out of that group, pile, stack of tabs, they cross the win out on a board…so you can see that the stack or pile is high, and the $500 tabs were already won…probably wont get much play on that one…but say the normal 12” high stack is down to 4-5” and all the $500/$250/$100 winners are still in there…many will “buy it out” 100 tickets for $100 in the change to get those bigger winners… Some bars are good about keeping the winner board updated, but some don’t do it, or do it late…because they know they sell more if the odds are better…if you are sitting on a pile of tabs and the first 10 are winners and crossed off the board, you’d probably be sitting on that group of tabs as a bar owner for a while. Here is a video for reference…people are annoying but it gives you an idea.. Start :30 in..
  13. Isn’t this what every guy/gal does in any MN bar that sells pull tabs? Look for the lowest pile with the highest winners left. Just on a MUCH larger scale lol
  14. I’ve had nearly the same exact experiences. Everything from overhearing baristas at a coffee shop talking about their fav coins that are gonna take off, to people pitching it to me that didn’t even know I invested at all, “everybody should own crypto, can’t afford not to” to friends who know how I feel about it and then sheepishly mention they bought some of this or that coin at the recommendation of their sons friend! A kid who went to school for kinesiology, works at the local planet fitness and smokes weed all day, but he convinced them to put money in, they didn’t even have a trading account, they set one up just to buy crypto…amazing. If there is one thing I have learned from the meme stocks, crypto, NTF craze it’s to never underestimate ANYBODY’S ability to act irrational when presented with delusions of getting rich quickly and easily. And by anybody that includes your grandma, your priest, the guy cutting your hair, the kid on the sidewalk next to you with a skateboard who has gotta be barely old enough to open an account, surprised we aren’t seeing homeless at the stoplights with a sign accepting crypto. Human psychology at its finest, and the thing that gets me is if you ask them questions about the “investment” or offer food for thought, it’s quickly met with “them knowing or hearing of someone who made TONS” or the fact that my skepticism is why I’ll never be rich LOL, “gotta play, to win” that type of gamblers mentality. Like once you’re labeled ad a crypto doubter, you’re the idiot and just don’t get it. ETF, div payers, blue chips, value..all for boomers! Crypto to the moon, and many are buying on the way down, “once in a lifetime opportunity”…..
  15. Rockefeller, Carnegie, et al did change the avg persons life..but so has Buffett, just in a different way…how many people do you know that financially benefitted from Rockefeller wealth or Carnegie steel? Did they go along for the ride with them making money? Or just benefit from jobs working for them etc. The rules were much different back then, with first mover advantage it was possible to set up an untouchable monopoly, much harder to build an empire today I think than back then, regulations, taxes, competition etc….sure a railroad improves lives, oil for vehicles, steel to build but the avg guy was used by them as labor, customers or passengers etc. The difference to me is…Buffetts view of shareholders as PARTNERS. Since the mid 1960’s till today, anybody with a couple dollars to invest could JOIN in reaping the benefits of Buffets work, those that did so early have been handsomely rewarded. If you want to know how it would impact he country, the tens of thousands decending on Omaha every year would be a start, but don’t forget the family’s of those individuals, potentially future generations, the recipients of any charity these shareholders may choose to assist, the foundations set up and run but the Buffett kids, Gates Foundation etc. Rockefeller and Carnegie were certainly philanthropists as well, and I’ve enjoyed a library or entertainment that is in some way benefitted from them, but when it comes to actually putting money in individual peoples accounts for them to do so as they please, no way those other fellas could touch Buffett, not even close. Another big name from back in the day, anybody read the book, House of Morgan? How did the country benefit from their activities? They “just punished paper around” right? Many variables to consider on how the money was made, assistance in building business vs individual achievements, philanthropy, period in time, legacy. A railroad back in the day connecting the country helped change lives for sure, nowadays the government developed the interstate system and we take it for granted… EV replacing ICE could reduce the relevance of Standard Oil perhaps someday in the future…technology or the gov in the future will never present an opportunity for the avg joe to get 20% returns on invested money for decades and be viewed as a partner… You are right, if the US had gone the way of Japan, Buffett would be some kid from Nebraska maybe…but the same could be said about the others…if the US was not what it is, there probably wouldn't have been a Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Carnegie etc either, IMO all played to their strengths, taking opportunities available to them at their time in the best country in the world for a capitalist. If any of these guys had been born the same year that they were…but born in India, Somalia etc you wouldn’t even know their name. What’s the point?
  16. Yeah I get it, I wouldnt want people running all over my property either, ripping things up, leaving fencing open etc but I would be reasonable about it if they made an honest mistake and didnt do any damage...Also for the sake of clarification...this guys property bordered public property, a national park...property that had the cabin that we rented for the night...so it wasnt totally random...there was a method to our madness, we thought we were taking a road to get as close to where we would go in to get to the cabin since it was late afternoon and running out of daylight. We were hoping to hike 5-6 miles back in, rather than 10. Also, imagine dirt roads, zero road signs, using a paper map from the forest service and literally counting the left/right turns to navigate....(ok we go past one road coming up to the right and then the next road after that we take a left etc) I would have loved a polite reminder...or notification at all of trespass, we honestly didnt know, in fact we were just glad to have made it back to the truck lol. Another funny thing..when the Sheriff (sitting in his office with his cowboy boots up on the desk) offered us "I suppose I could take $100 bail off each of ya with a promise to come back Monday)" we took it, didnt have a choice...the alternative was sitting in jail...and no joke...the "JAIL" was in the basement of the building, single cell..flat bars...bed hanging of the wall from chains and he said it was repurposed from an old Navy battleship! LOL....straight out f a John Wayne movie...and he made the comment after taking our $100..."probably better this way anyway....I didnt have anything to feed ya"...keep in mind that would have been Friday night, all day Sat, all day Sun and then see the judge Monday morning...
  17. Yeah those 7.3s were great, like the Cummins, they put them in everything including larger class trucks, bus, ambulance etc. Proven platform and not uncommon to see them in the 300-400k mi odometer reading without major mechanical issues. The newer diesels are a totally different ball game. For reference my 1997 is rated at 185hp and 400ftlbs tq...those numbers are laughable by todays standards, most are double those numbers now. Alot of changes and improvements to get those numbers. The 1997 12 valve is 100% mechanical, literally needs a power wire for starter and fuel shut off solenoid and it will run, fuel pump, injection pump, everything mechanical, very simple. I rode in the 6.7 my buddy has before the "incident"...the thing was a beast, besides the obvious comforts and tech...the torque is insane its like 475hp and over 1000 ft lbs of torque...always good to let a couple years of a new platform run so they work the kinks out and gives time for buyer feedback to come in and the design gremlins to show up. All my trips west have primarily been camping....in order to fish! I'm not gonna say that MT is any better than CO but its def not any worse! A funny story that would be too long to go into detail, myself and two friends headed out to MT in college on a break for some camping and fishing. Road trip out, excited, long story short..in MN/WI we have land measured in acres...if you've got 100 thats pretty decent depending on the area and if its for farming or recreation...well in MT they own "sections"..couple young college guys making their way through MT and backcountry sites, working the streams etc on our way...we legitimately got a little turned around on some unlabeled back roads following a lousy map (phone gps had no service and were dead so we went old school) we had splurged and rented a fire lookout for a night (I think $25/night) and thought we were following the map to the general area and then would park the car and hike the 5ish miles back into the cabin...we left the truck and headed out...couldnt find it and it was getting dark so we ended up sleeping next to a stream in the middle of BF nowhere and in the morning made our way back to the truck to set out for our next location...when we got to the truck we were met by the local Sherriff informing us that we were trespassing (we literally had a map in our hands walking out) told us to follow him into town to sort it out. Ended up that some guy that had a mansion on the top of a mountain (that I saw and legit wondered how they even got a concrete truck or crane up there) saw us and reported us and wanted us prosecuted..it was like something out a movie...we literally walked on the property miles from this mansion off in the distance..but he basically owned an entire valley as far as you could see, multiple sections...no talking to him, no reasoning with the Sherriff...our options were $600 out of each of us and be on our way or sit two nights in jail till Monday morning when we could see the judge..after an hour in the dept, my buddy calling his law school fiancé and me calling my state trooper buddies back home... he finally figured out we were broke college kids and offered $100 bail and promise to come back Monday. We did and my two buddies pled not guilty...at the advice of a local lawyer I called and other resources I pled my case and threw myself at the mercy of the court (the court was straight out of an old western, swinging saloon doors to enter the court room, wood church pew seating and half the town must have showed up for the live judge judy entertainment...the judge sentenced me to $300 in fines and 6 months probation!!! I went to the clerk of court and set up payment...asked what I could afford and I told her $10/mo, so for YEARS I would mail a check to Sweet Grass County MT for $10 and they would mail me back a receipt...sure the postage cost me a little but at the time it was my only option and I didnt want to give it to them easy. Clerk also told me it happens every summer, usually not a big deal but some of the big shots were sticklers about out of towners on their land. She also said Tom Brokaw had a place in the area etc (not saying he was THE guy). MT state statute reads that it is your responsibility to know where you are at all times...doesnt have to be posted...doesn't matter if you are lost etc..no excuses.. Never would have happened in MN/WI. So always know where you're at lol, I left out a ton of other things from that adventure, some amazing memories.
  18. I'm only familiar with the Powerstrokes. Not sure what years you would be interested in...1999-2003 with 7.3 PSD are the best/most reliable by far...tough to find clean low mileage ones and if you do the prices they have been bringing have been insane in the last year or two...I've seen some clean examples with ~100 mi selling in the 40k's..that was shocking, but they have no emissions garbage, get better MPG, simpler and avg guy can work on them etc and obviously new ones are gonna be in the $70k+ so maybe thats how buyers justify it. No cab removal needed. The 2003 + 6.0 was absolute garabge IMO...horrible mileage and tons of problems...you can look into it...enough time has gone by now that aftermarket companies have figured out what major fail points are and are able to "bulletproof" them, but to have the parts swapped out to make it reliable is a significant cost..I dont have recent experience with these but it used to be around $5-6k to fix what will inevitably fail, not if, when. Cab removal needed Next gen 6.4 was slightly better than 6.0, fixed some quips but had others...nobody was super excited about them. Cab removal needed. Supposedly the new 6.7 is pretty decent, and most issues addressed. Most things do not need cab removal unless a significant repair. I have a close friend that bought a brand new 6.7 dually, decked out truck, was in the $70k's and had so many problems with it he was talking to an attorney about lemon laws. Long story short there is a shaft/cog in the transmission that holds the driveshaft in place while in park...the cog broke and the truck took off on him down a slight incline as he was getting out of the truck, truck ended hitting a tree by the time he was able to fling the door back open runing along side it and jump in to slam on the brakes. The cause was the cog, but the damage wasnt just the cog, it needed new a new fender, bumper, hood, mirror etc...alot of damage done and Ford drug their feet on the "investigation", long story short after 4-5 months they fixed it, replaced the transmission and kept it, made him sign a non disclosure etc. He wasnt happy. Also some guys I have talked to that do this regularly, dedicated shops, can pull a cab in a half hour (they charge you for more hours...but they can pull them quick). Guys have learned the tricks to work on them. Again not sure if you are even in the diesel market or if you are considering a gasser, but I would do some google searches on whatever you are looking at before buying. I have more experience with the Duramax and specifically the Cummins. Not a fan of Dodge but the cummins is IMO the best option and each "generation" has its own particulars, I prefer the older stuff that is simple, bulletproof reliable, easy to work on for the avg guy etc. For reference my truck is a 1997 Ram 2500 Diesel with 87k miles, looks like it rolled off the showroom floor. Doesnt have all the fancy tech of the new stuff but it avgs 21.5 mpg and I can do darn near everything I would need to with a simple basic wrench/ratchet set I keep behind the back seat. I love trips out west..have spent a lot of time in CO, more in MT, backcountry hiking/camping/fishing, one of my favorite places in the world. Im not a huge rodeo fan but its fun to watch sometimes, I met Tuff Hedeman at Cheyenne Frontier Days back around the time the movie 8 Seconds came out, nice fella. I have the same jack, has held up well and I like it, I know a couple other guys that have the same jack and use theirs more in a month than I will in the next 10 years...no complaints. No AC hydraulic...but a good value for the money.
  19. Dealerships are such a scam, you pay for "billable hours" to complete a job, even though many jobs that anyone with ANY sort of mechanical ability can complete take a fraction of the time. For instance I had a V6 Camry, the front 3 spark plugs are easy access...the back 3 not so much. Shop rate is almost 8hrs to remove the entire intake manifold, all associated hoses, connections, air intake, MAF and associated piping etc to have a clean birds eye view of the 3 rear plugs for change out....any basic backyard mechanic with a wobble socket, extension, socket universal joint, all taped together and a little gumption can get to and swap out in about an hour (and thats the backyard guys) for nothing more than the $20 in NGK plugs....meanwhile shops want over $700 to do it...they dont bill on how many hours it actually takes them to do the job, they bill based off how many hours a computer program tells them it would take to do it the longest way possible with the most work involved. Other examples of poor engineering designs with batteries hidden in an engine compartment, those Ford F250-F350 that need the cab removed from the chassis to get to stuff on the engine, specifically diesels...no shop does it the longest, hardest way to make a repair...they all know the shortcuts and do it the smart, quick way...cant say that I blame them, if I owned a shop I'd likely do the same...8 hours of wrenching but able to bill for 30.....for EACH GUY. Basically then they are just charging by the job, shop rate really means nothing. I cant stand taking my stuff to a shop unless the repair needs specialized tools that I dont have or know anybody has them that I can borrow or rent, or Im in a time crunch. Basic brake job, maybe $200 in parts (new pads and rotors) from RockAuto and a couple hours vs Shop rate @ $150/hr x 3-4 hrs plus "shop supplies" plus disposal fees, plus parts... plus charging you an extra 10-15% for the parts, meanwhile they get an additional discount when they buy, so they are really making 20-25% on the parts...dont get me wrong I have no desire whatsoever to be a full time mechanic, but its why I just cant stand taking anything in that I can do myself
  20. Anybody have any thoughts on the the potential advantages of owning A shares vs B shares further down the line. A is convertible to B...lower volume with A...1500:1..we all know the differences...but down the line with Warrens stake converting to B and being sold is there a potential for A to hold up better, obviously anybody who has watched both for any amount of time knows that they dont always move in lockstep...but just wondering if there is anything to consider with that regard. Obviously voting rights are more beneficial for A shares...but immaterial for the avg investor with a couple at most. OR will it really not make that much of a difference since there is the 1500:1 conversion option... With the large amount of A shares from Warren converting to B and being sold, will that reduce the A share count to make the voting rights of remaining A shares more valuable, protection against larger players trying to get more control etc. I guess I havent really taken the time to think through it fully, just thought Id throw the question out there incase anyone else had already done the thinking for me.
  21. wow @Xerxes....I find that shocking and disturbing. Its hard to believe, not only Americans, but the Brits, French and Israelis...I guess the Israelis dont really surprise me...but the fact that the use of Nuclear weapons would be socially accepted in general, and that 20k lives justify 2M deaths.. Without looking into the study for more detail my initial questions would be details on the subjects polled. Age, socioeconomic, education etc. Size of the group. Explanation of "nuclear weapons" given to the subjects. Are we describing another Hiroshima scenario, or were these "tactical" nukes like we have heard about recently that are nuclear in nature but conventional in damage (not that it makes a difference in MY answer). Interesting thought...if Zalensky had access to a nuclear weapon do you think HE would use it? Would he be justified?
  22. I've thought about this question many times in my life. Its an interesting one. In theory yes, the compensation should come from the value you create for society and I think often times that is the way it works. Elon, Gates, Ford etc are examples of this...but it isnt a RULE. Short answer is there are tons of people that create value for society that are not compensated as such, and tons of people that do not...but are compensated like they do. There are also "wild cards"....you can be a special ed teacher in a rural community spending your career making under $40k/yr or you can be a street thug but run a 4.3 40yrd or have a 36" vertical and make multi-millions, guys back in the early days of the NFL were construction workers in the off season..come out with one hit song...some of these rappers that have a hit, prison before or after... Alot of this as stated has to do with opportunity, location etc. Doctors in many countries are not compensated nearly as much as in the States here. You could be the best realtor in the county in the middle of BF Alabama and your commission on avg sale could be a couple grand....vs best realtor in any county in CA. I think there are more ways to positively impact society that do not have a monetary benefit, than there are that do. You could almost say that the inverse could be true as well. We can all think of TONS of ways people have made ridiculous amounts of money that was the result of arguably zero positive value creation for society. I think this is difficult because "value" to society invites the idea of morality and ethics...we assume that value to society is a positive thing, something good, you create that improves lives of all...but it doesnt have to be that at all... I think the times have changed so much, and basic needs are satisficed that now there is potential for many other forms of "value" to be compensated exponentially. Look at these people on Youtube that make videos and have a channel and all the guy does is sit down and eat 20lbs worth of McDonalds, Wendys, other fast food...mukbang I think its called....if you use the ap that projects what these channels are making via ad revenue etc with a couple million followers its staggering. Are they creating value for society? No not in the way that Henry Ford did, or Elon Musk is, or some of the other big names in this countries history..but some would say that they ARE creating value to society via entertainment and the views illustrate this, views = ad revenue and thus they are compensated for the "value" they create. Many examples of people that create/contribute tremendous value to society and are not compensated adequately. The interesting thing is HOW SOCIETY HAS CHANGED WHAT IT VALUES. That to me is the real interesting thing to ponder. How much did Cardi B make off her WAP song? The figures would suggest that the song created tremendous value to society. What if she released that song in the 1950's vs today? What if she was singing that song in 1864? TLDR: Yes there is positive correlation between societal value creation and monetary compensation. There always has been and always will be. The fascinating thing to me is how society changes what it values through time. Often times ones OWN personal view of the "value" created does not match that of society...and it can be confusing. For instance the WAP song IMO creates absolutely zero value for society, some may make the case that it is actually negative for society...but the numbers dont lie...Society valued that song all over the world. Certifications and sales for "WAP" Region Certification Certified units/sales Australia (ARIA)[294] 4× Platinum 280,000 Austria (IFPI Austria)[295] Platinum 30,000 Belgium (BEA)[296] Gold 20,000 Brazil (Pro-Música Brasil)[297] Diamond 160,000 Canada (Music Canada)[298] 6× Platinum 480,000 Denmark (IFPI Danmark)[299] Platinum 90,000 France (SNEP)[300] Platinum 200,000 Germany (BVMI)[301] Gold 200,000 Italy (FIMI)[302] Platinum 70,000 New Zealand (RMNZ)[303] 2× Platinum 60,000 Norway (IFPI Norway)[304] Platinum 60,000 Poland (ZPAV)[305] 3× Platinum 60,000 Portugal (AFP)[306] Platinum 10,000 United Kingdom (BPI)[307] Platinum 600,000 United States (RIAA)[308] 7× Platinum 7,000,000
  23. I added quite a bit this week, combination of buying shares, selling puts, and will likely add more this week, honestly hope it continues on current trajectory, I'd love to get some in the 250's but Im not sitting around sucking my thumb waiting either. It actually feels great to be deploying a portion of my (large to me) cash percentage. Also trying to be more aggressive as opportunity presents. Position sizing (not counting BRK) has always been a struggle for me. Seems like I either size too large or futz around and miss the boat. Some of my best returns ever have been sized so small that they were essentially insignificant because I lacked the conviction to push real chips in rather than just paying the ante. A year or so when adding COST I was tiptoeing in, following it down as I worked toward what I considered a full position, I never got a chance to get there because it took off on me. (maybe 50% of full position achieved). I have more conviction in BRK than other names so its easier for me, but I sometimes find myself holding out sometimes for juuuuusssttt a little better price (that may or may not come) so Ive focused on acting when it's "pretty close" and being fine with it bc when looking through a long term lens it really doesnt make a difference if you bought BRK back in 2020 and paid 168 or 174 and I dont think it matters now if I pay 265 or 255 when Im looking at actions today in another year or two...or 5...or 10.
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