Blugolds

Currently remodeling a lake home in prep for sale… I do everything myself. Other hobbies include woodworking, I have another cabin I am going to build a garage at in the spring and will use that shop to hopefully start building a drift boat. I previously worked at a boat shop restoring old wooden boats, ChrisCraft , Hackercraft, Garwood, combining woodworking and love for boats was great. Some archery, but mainly construction/woodworking related. My hobbies change depending on the project, usually my projects are large, so take a while and then I move on to the next interest. I spent 5 years restoring a 1968 Camaro that I still have, so at that time my hobbies were more automotive in nature.

Is it possible that countries start to limit or even outlaw the use of crypto? Article I read today about the EU concerned that Russian Oli’s may yse crypto to bypass sanctions… Just a thought, is this a positive or negative for crypto..My main concern for crypto has always been that it appeals most to those who don’t want to be tracked, on the system..I.e terrorists, drug dealers, Russian billionaires etc and the gov not wanting to allow that and possibly saying that they will ban its acceptance as it supports these activities. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-make-sure-russia-cannot-circumvent-sanctions-with-crypto-assets-le-maire-2022-03-02/

I agree and know what you’re saying, but what does the board really do? IMO the board is there at this stage of the game to just preserve the order as executors of Buffets “will” (that’s the way I look at it) and his daughter I would assume will be able to do that adequately. Greg, Ajit, Ted and Todd are the big players, IMO the board is almost like a technicality and there to make sure BRK isn’t broken up etc. The culture at BRK runs deep regardless of who sits on the board.

Guy has no idea what he is talking about…he is giving Russia way to much credit IMO, they are not avoiding civilian infrastructure, this is documented fact. And if they think that they are going to employ some strategy to get the Ukrainians to fall in line and become sub servant and under the Russian federation he is mistaken. IMO the Ukrainians will NEVER bow down to Putin. The damage is already done. Yes Russia could have completely obliterated Ukraine with missles, but would have had another problem on their hands. The world standing by while Ukraine fights its own battle is one thing, but if Russia would have completely inihilated Ukraine and turned it into a wasteland, genocide, I don’t know that the rest of the world would tolerate that, not that they are totally now. Also keep in mind, he is comparing apples to oranges…when the US went into Iraq, or the Gulf war, remember Schwarzkopf’s explanation of the invasion, that was a multi national siege against a formidable foe that was dug in. That was a war and both sides were ready and knew it was coming and the reasons were clear. US and allies against the republican guard. This is Putin invading a non hostile, non threatening neighbor for no reason other than personal agenda. THAT is the difference. He could have also said, look Russia is a nuclear power, they could have just nuked Ukraine like the US did to Japan in WW2 but they didn’t! See Russia doesn’t really want to harm Ukraine they are being merciful! His comparison is a joke. Russia is doing what they can to take over, without forcing the rest of the world to get involved more than they already have. It’s like watching a school yard fight where a senior football player kicks the shit out of a skinny little freshmen that didn’t want to fight in the first place and beats him bloody but saying because the senior didn’t shoot him with a gun, he’s really a good guy because he ultimately wants to be friends with the freshmen after its over….I mean come on, he is delusional. Zelensky is doing what he can with what he has. Ukrainians are on board with him, the men/women WANT to fight. They are fighting for their lives and everything they hold dear, this guy makes it sound like Sleensky is using them as pawns, he has it all wrong and speaks as someone who has never been in the situation where you back is against the wall and you have nothing left but the kitchen sink. And I agree, he is condemning Zelensky with no regard for Putins actions. I agree I think he is a Russian Shill, Ukraine has no chance against the full force of the Russian military, that’s just basic numbers etc, Russia has the resources to do what they want, its only a matter of time, but the Ukrainians are doing what they can to make it as difficult as they can on them. I also agree that the social media has a lot of fictitious stuff on it. The 80yr old Ukrainian lady giving the Russian solider sunflower seeds and saying she wants them to grow after his dead body is buried…I don’t believe that happened, the Ukranian road signs that have been changed to say F* off go home in each direction, I don’t believe that has happened. A lot of propaganda on both sides. Either way, its clear that Ukraine didn’t want this fight, did everything they could to prevent it, asked for help and are now being bullied and have a limited time left probably. Ukraine might be captured and put under rule of Russia but they wont accept it and it will be a long standing sore spot that they will never forget and probably continually resist for generations. Once you taste freedom its tough to go back to the alternative. Ukrainians have more freedom than Russians and that’s not something anybody would give up easily. We’ve all heard the adage “I’d rather die on my feet than live on my knees”.

Keep in mind the style of warfare in Vietnam/Afghanistan vs Ukraine/China/Taiwan is very very different. Mainly due to geographics and population density. Guerilla warfare with a difficult to identify enemy hiding in tunnels/mountains via terrain that benefits defending against an unfamiliar foe. Look at Ukraine…air defense and tanks lead to fighting in the streets. This IMO is closer to “normal” fighting that we could expect vs jungle and dessert, and gives more of an advantage to the superior firepower and tech weapons available to be used.

I agree, actual returns would be nice to know, but since their AUM has increased, Warren has given them high praise several times, and they are still working for BRK…I have to assume that they are providing adequate value and their interests are aligned. Beating or lagging the S&P by a couple points here and there are immaterial to me as it probably is with any value investor. My point being, if we knew they were beating regularly or lagging occasionally would it change my perception of them knowing that Warren has picked them for the job, has utmost confidence in them and is increasing their responsibilities…I don’t think it would. I think Warrens praise and show of approval by increasing available capital is enough for me, I trust that if their performance was unsatisfactory they would no longer be in thier position.

Picked up some FB under $200, was looking at some other names early, left the PC and was surprised to see the rally when I looked again toward close, didn’t expect that. Not saying that it will be sustained but man, continually hoping that this is the start of a sustained buying opportunity and it never lasts.

Thanks for heads up Ive had a tab open waiting for it all week, its posted now… https://www.semperaugustus.com/clientletter

Im a huge Munger fan...I appreciate his logic and his ability to be blunt...but he made a comment regarding the one-child policy that is probably gonna bring some criticism. Im not saying he is wrong...just that I dont know if I would have worded it the same way he did...to be honest I probably would have avoided a statement about it all together. ~37:30 to 39:00 mark of the video, regarding China's forced abortion policy. "...They (China) had to prevent 500 or 600 million people from even being born in China. They just measured the women's menstrual cycle when they came to work, and aborted those that weren't allowed. You can't do that in the United States, and it really needed doing in China"

Thought I would revisit this thread, wondering when the new letter from Semper is going to drop? I was looking back at previous letters and looked like they all released around Feb 14/15 in previous years so should be expecting it soon..I guess I would have expected it on the 14th but maybe now the 21st, this Monday? Always enjoy reading it as it pertains to BRK.

I can see why he obviously would want to say something, especially with the recent backlash against politicians suspected insider trading and the media having a field day with this...its easy to make it look bad and Warren wants none of that...reminds me of his comments during the Salomon Brothers ordeal, “If [the employees of Salomon Brothers] follow this test, they need not fear my other message to them,” Buffett said. “Lose money for the firm, and I will be understanding; lose a shred of reputation for the firm, and I will be ruthless.”

I think the difference is that Spec thinks the first two rounds are over...and my guess is that Charlie doesnt even consider the first round over yet.. I refuse to believe that Munger has been "lucky" all these years with Warren pulling back on the reigns to keep him from blowing himself up. Also, the entire culture that BRK is built upon is considering shareholders as partners with a responsibility as caretakers of that capital. Thats not something that just Warren practices, Munger believes that as well, to their core, for BRK shareholders as well as those at the Daily Journal. Just doesnt make sense to me that Munger would have such an impressive career and such an influence on WB and others, only to go down in a ball of flames in the 9th inning...that just isnt logical...and Charlie is probably the most logical person alive.

Also, just to reiterate what @ barminov said....spending those two days talking to that Russian fella in Rome...what he told me regarding Crimea was almost exactly verbatim as barminov described it. Specifically the part about: "You're absolutely right about the type of people that support Russia...it tends to be the older crowd. Partly nostalgia, partly some sort of yearning for the "greatness" of the Soviet Union. The Pro-Russian population is in the South and East of the country...think the Ukrainian version of the "Rust Belt." . Regarding the vote in Crimea, it happened after the "little green men" (Russian regulars) took over the peninsula. No sane person will argue that in an honest vote, Crimea wouldn't choose Russia, but the numbers are skewed because your vote will be different when someone is holding an AK 2 meters behind you." I specifically remember him saying, "how would you vote if there were AK's and tanks outside the voting booth" I remember him saying that specifically because it made an impression on me as someone from the states. I also remember him saying how the older generation romanticized the "glory days" and how I didnt quite get that because I didnt think the Soviet Union was that great, in confused me as to why they would yearn for that. Maybe the power but not the living conditions? He said that the younger generation is more globalized now and the parents still watch the state propaganda and buy into that while the younger generation who travel etc see it more for what it is..Again..small data set but it was interesting to hear the same basic gist from Barminov.

I havent watched the news in a couple years, in fact I am usually at least a week or two behind world events, I find it less stressful and immaterial to my daily life anyway. As it pertains to investing I pay attention to some degree but overall I think ignorance to some degree is bliss. To be fair though...lets suppose that Russia did intend to invade this week...however info was leaked and they knew their plan in detail...wouldnt that be the play for the Russians to make? JK guise...see we told you we were just playin war! Back out and then make it seem like the world overreacted? MSM on either side doesnt carry much weight with me, so Im not arguing that their reports are credible, I think both sides have done enough that any rational person should take anything they see reported with a grain of salt...but if I was picking a fight at the bar, and the bartender told me to knock it off..and I told her I was just teasing...then took off my jacket...rolled up my sleeves, and have an empty bottle in my hand staring the other guy down...she calls the cops and what would be the first thing I would say? I told her I was just teasing, jeez settle down you're overreacting! I wasnt really gonna do anything! I was in Rome shortly after the Crimea incident and met a Russian guy my age and had the chance to ask him a bunch of questions over a couple days, super cool guy and it was interesting hearing the different viewpoints between the younger generation and the older generation Russian population, it was very interesting to get the take of someone who was actually in country and knew how the people felt/thought. (admittedly small data set) I dont still have contact with him but I have a buddy from HS that married a girl from Estonia and now lives there, they have friends/family in Ukraine so I sent him a message a couple days ago asking for his take as its the closest to what I consider "real" info I have, to summarize, the general feeling at least from them and their cohorts was that Putin wasnt just wasting time. Again, small data set so take that for what its worth. But again to your point, thats what happens when media cries wolf all the time and everything is a "headline"...creditability goes out the window. When I did follow the news more closely I found non-US sources to seem to do more factual reporting "just the facts ma'am" rather than spinning it one direction or the other. Im sure they are all guilty of it to some degree, it would be naïve to not think so, but at least at face value it didnt seem to make me question everything like the big name guys here in the states. Some of the stuff on CNN/FOX seems like it belongs in the National Enquirer, at least for me its a waste of time.

Yesterday added some FB, and some BRK Feb 25 puts. I read a comment months ago when BRK was buying back around 285, something to the effect that if he is taking trenches buying back over a year, perhaps he takes the overall CB for the year rather than one specific buy lot. And as long as the overall yearly buyback CB is under what he determines fair thats all that really matters. I would like to buy BRK cheaper (dont we always) but my CB is so low that even when adding now in significant portions it does not raise my CB significantly and the CB is certainly well below what I would consider "safe and comfortable". I also consider my BRK a never-sell so that adds to my comfort level. This illustrates a shift in my thinking, I think we were all aware of BRK on blue light special during the covid scare and I was adding aggressively during that time, but my cash pile continues to grow and is now quite a bit more than I would prefer, additionally I have the sale of a vacation home on the horizon that will put my cash pile (for me) into the stratosphere, so in an attempt to start putting it to work in some way I have been selling puts at prices I would be comfortable buying anyway for some extra income. Doesnt move the needle much but it at least lets me feel like Im doing something. This way I can still participate and even if assigned still have enough dry powder in the event that BRK looks really juicy. I view it as heads I win, tails I dont lose. Does anyone else feel a mild sense of embarrassment when cash positions get high? I realize that is individual, what I consider high may be pocket change for some, obviously depends on percentage of port, but I feel like Im being lazy or not working hard enough to find places to park it. Single with no kids yet so even $20k in I-bonds at 7%+ doesnt get me excited or move the needle. There are worse problems to have than sitting on a pile of cash given current market conditions and potential future volatility but its a feeling I cant shake...that pressure to swing you bum. Current cash position is around 30% with the future RE sale bringing it to mid 40's.

LOL I agree, and personally I wouldnt be comfortable enough, have strong enough conviction to take such a position but as you said Im not CM. What cracks me up is that, say Charlie takes the initial position and then it drops...but say that he DOESNT double down...then all the boo birds would come out and say "why isnt he doubling down?!" If he liked it at $250 he should love it at $120!!! So basically Charlie is in a lose-lose position in the eyes of many....take a position and it drops and he doesnt increase, he goofed...take a position and it drops and he doubles down...man he really goofed...and none of it influences him in the slightest.

I got a kick out of the Larry David one, he is a character through time who called everything wrong..invention of light bulb etc...and then someone pitched crypto to him and he says....naaww... Not sure that will age well..but what do I know...I agree it had a pets.com vibe to it...anytime someone tries to sell you something hard a little alarm should go off, comes across as desperation almost.

My bread and butter are nothing new, BRK/COST get me excited when I see them falling. Core holdings and the majority of the port that I would be perfectly content not looking at for a decade. Things have to get much uglier before I get genuinely excited, but those are my two most obvious and I’m sure they would be on most others list to keep an eye on also.

Agreed, regardless of who one was rooting for (disappointing for us Cheeseheads) the games were a blast to watch, every single one. Surprised Brady and the Bucs fell…actually to be honest I was 0-4 in my predictions LOL… Mahomes and Hill (the human Cheetah) are fun to watch, if I had to bet they would be my pick to take it all, but like I said I was 0-4 in my predictions this weekend so who knows..the upcoming weekend should bring more good games.

Just my two, very zinc filled cents… IMO if you are guaranteeing his money against loss for 5 years, you’ve really got to be willing to go longer or risk the relationship. I was actually in a similar situation back in March when BRK was dirt cheap. I had a friend who was “lost” risk adverse and sitting on some money. Buffett has said in terms of the banking industry (just read that deposition” that folks will never be as careful with others money’s s they are their own…I find personally I am the opposite. Imagine if you put the money in investments that performed superbly, then after 5 years we have another 2008 and everything drops 50% and there they are left with half their original investment, after you have taken your cut…how will that look? Will they have the wherewithal to weather the storm, will they look at you differently? I only made suggestions for BRK because I knew it was a slam dunk and had a majority of my own personal port in it, and was adding aggressively. I don’t know that there are similar opportunities available now that I would feel comfortable investing family/friends money into, although that could change in the next quarter or two. My gut is to agree with Sharper and put it in the too hard pile..maybe some generic placed to park the cash that will at least keep up with inflation but as for guaranteeing reruns and taking a cut, I personally would do it pro-bono and error on the side of caution. If I didn’t take a cut it would be easier to explain that nobody can time the market and things happen if is money suffered a setback later and I had not dipped my hand in the cookie jar.

I can confirm this via relatives and personal friends...the only downside of travel nursing...is the travel...but the pay/per diem/bonuses for the adventurous is hard to argue with. I hadnt heard of the "no rehire list" thats interesting... those I know that travel make very good money and those that dont say that they have quite a few travelers in their units. If you can get a nursing degree from a technical college and then travel and make 6k a week thats a pretty good ROI on the education... My old roommate's wife is a nurse...works in ICU and flight...during the height of the pandemic she took a gig out in CA...with bonuses and all expenses it was ~$10k...and the real kicker? She (and her cohorts) got out there and they never used them, they never actually went to the hospital, they were essentially just "on call" so they spent the days at the beach...she basically got a week paid vacation...I dont know if the hospitals spent that money or it was some federal allowance from Uncle Sam, but it was a great deal for her. I suppose for a super eager/hungry travel nurse they could bounce location to location but the ones I know usually have some down time in between gigs, also probably depends on specialty.

True, even with cars its the same. They make reproduction metal panels for the mopars, but they fit lousy and everyone wants NOS (new old stock) or original that is clean. What made me think of this is that the reproduction market for Camaros is intense...you can build an entire car from a magazine if you want, on top of that you can buy and entire unibody camaro for about $13k...they make them...so that influences the market. They dont make chargers like that

I dont know anyone who collects beanie babies anymore...and I doubt that the ultra wealthy ever did, low end cheap collectibles are just that, maybe there are some low end collectors looking for one here or there.. I remember back during the GFC talking to a family friend who deals in collectable wooden boats...Garwood, Hackercraft, Chriscraft, all the way to Riva..his business did not feel anything...those who had money..had money, regardless of what main street was dealing with. When you get into the upper echelons of collectables, the returns can be good because those potential buyers will be potential buyers regardless of what the markets do and they could care less if you're asking what would equate to a 10-20% return/yr on your purchase price...if they want a Purdey, they want it and sometimes it comes down to "one is available for purchase" without regard to price. Someone who will pay over a quarter mil for a wooden boat to add to their collection doesnt care if you are making $20k on it in 6 months, they care more about how it will score with judges at the next show so they can brag to their buddies that they won another trophy, many areas are the same, horses, cars, bikes etc. For any car guys, Mopar collectors are fanatical. More than any other group that I've been around. I own a 1st gen Camaro and the Chev and Ford muscle car guys know their stuff, but the Mopar guys are on a completely different level. My childhood friend is one of them, specifically the 1968/69 Dodge Chargers, the prices that he gets for parts like doors, grill etc are unbelievable, so much so that he can search the country and find something that looks like it is headed to the scrap heap, buy it, have it shipped and know that he can double his money on parts alone from what are essentially small pieces. This is nothing compared to several Hemi's he has, intakes, carbs, heads etc...if the casting numbers are right, you can almost ask whatever you want because if thats what someone needs to complete their build it can mean that a period correct restored car goes from say $60k to over 6 figures and all you want is $10k for a block. The interesting thing about many of these collector items is that it also helps to be "known" in the group, many of which are relatively small. I had a coworker who's father had a rare car, rare enough to take it Barret Jackson and sell for over $300k. Side note: If you want to really be amazed by a business, the money to be made is in being BJ..the fees they take are amazing, not just a commission off the sale like RE...they really take their pound of flesh and its no wonder they move them fast and run multiple auctions throughout the country...wow, talk about a great return. That was the first thing I thought when he told me about the entire process, multiple fees, insurance, transport, inspections, fees for reserve etc...its huge. During the pre-inspection there were several guys looking at the car, interested in that specific make and wondering where it came from, they had not seen or heard about the car. It sold, but they were told that had it been offered by a "known" collector it would have likely brought even more, but since he was an unknown guy who happened to have a "barn find" from the middle of nowhere it almost detracted from the price. They said that he should have joined some forums, got in with some clubs/groups and built up some anticipation/marketing to really bring top dollar.

Yes

This strikes close to home. As a landlord in a city that prides itself on being "progressive" the new laws that they are implementing and/or attempting to implement is enough to make a guy pull a Michael Douglas in Falling Down. Not quite as bad as Portland or Seattle, but they're on their way... Examples: 1.) In an attempt to increase available affordable housing for everyone, I am no longer allowed to screen tenants via what I would consider "normal" criteria. Essentially the first person to fill out the application must be offered the available unit. The ordinance blocks landlords from screening for credit scores, insufficient credit history and certain criminal and rental histories You are unable to conduct any other financial transactions in this world without credit score/history...including things as simple as a cellphone, but if an individual wants to rent a unit from you, which is basically their largest monthly expenditure...no need...Whats that? You have a score of 550, bankruptcy, kicked out of last 4 places you lived in 4 years because you couldnt pay rent, felon? COME ON IN! Gimmie a break... But wait there's more! 2.) OTP (Opportunity to Purchase) and this is the one that really, really is hard to swallow. If you decide that you want to cut some properties, consolidate, maybe 1031 exchange or even demo a property, you will have to notify renters of your intent and provide them opportunity to purchase. So you have these people that may or may not barely be able to afford the rent, you have to notify them of your intent to sell and provide them "adequate" time to secure financing if they are interested etc. There is a timeline on all of this so nothing is quick, its a long drawn out process that will inevitably bog down transactions and can end up costing someone a deal when time is of the essence. I've nearly lost deals because of a lazy loan agent, so now not only may you potentially have to battle the slow cluster F of the bank, its also your 550 credit score tenant that thinks they might want to be an owner... It gets worse... If the renter is not interested...you then have to submit your intent to the CITY! And this is the real "sweet" part...you have to do ALL of the legwork for them...condition report, current rent vs market rent, estimated value of the property, opportunity to increase rents etc and THEY HAVE FIRST CRACK AT IT. I mean what a racket right? Hey, if I could have a pile of properties coming across my desk every day and I could glance at them and all the heavy lifting was done for me, all the potential for value add, and could quickly determine what my return would be I would be ecstatic! What a dream! What RE investor wouldnt want that! Interestingly enough there was nothing pertaining to how they determine fair market value and what the city would pay...thats the real question, Can you ask whatever you want for the property or is the gestapo gonna give you an offer you cant refuse regardless of what it will bring on the open market. All of this under the guise of providing more affordable housing and a pathway to ownership. The big bad landlords. They forget that there are a significant amount of those of us with only a handful of properties, what I would consider mom and pop landlords. And guess what, if I cant screen tenants Im gonna increase rents to do it for me, increase rents to discourage those that apply based only on affordability and then "negotiate" rent breaks after showing the unit. I have never discriminated against a renter for any reason, some of my best renters have been those that could have been discriminated against illegally. There is no lens that I look at a renter through outside of are they reasonably capable of paying rent, do they seem reasonably responsible etc..very basic...but to take that away from the landlord to me is an injustice and if you are expected to offer the unit to first person that applies (who could be a deadbeat) it does a disservice to those responsible parties that didnt get their application in as fast as the deadbeat and are looking for a decent place to call home. There is no benefit to getting approved by being responsible. Combine all the aforementioned "perks" of being a landlord in this city with the fact that once you get these potential "dream" tenants in and start having issues, it is nearly impossible to get them out. Once I even offered to break mid lease, return deposit and give a credit to get them out, just to be done with them, I was gonna lose money anyway, and it was cheaper to cut loses and get a new quality tenant in rather than riding that lease out. Its a nightmare and has honestly had us considering if we even want to continue doing business in this city. I am empathetic to the lack of affordable housing honestly I am, I grew up in subsidized housing and there are plenty of people that have had a hiccup preventing them from buying, Ive rented to those types before and it has been fine..life happens. The majority of tenants I have now are young professional hipsters due to our property locations in the city. IMO to tie the hands and bend over ALL landlords is not right at best and at worst actually does more to contribute to the exact problem they are attempting to alleviate when landlords increase rents. They are basically forcing me to use high rent as the only screening process. I dont care about politics and there are extremes on both sides, this is what I would consider an extreme and a failure to consider 2nd and 3rd order effects of policy. Zero accountability for potential tenants but total accountability for the big bad landlords who just want a decent tenant.