Blugolds

I think Ukraine NATO is a "threat"...is it really real? If Russia didnt have nukes that would be one thing..but with nukes and a leader that isnt afraid to threaten using them...can you honestly envision a time where NATO would challenge them in armed conflict? I cant unless it was WW3 and then it doesnt really matter anyway. I know he says NATO expansion...and obviously that is probably a point of pride, but seems like the real thing he wanted was the land bridge/separatist regions...is Ukraine really that much of a buffer between Russia and Poland et al? I know it would be uncomfortable probably...just like nukes in Cuba..but when we are talking about 5k nukes capable of traveling the globe, does it really matter if they are on your doorstep or it takes 30 min to get to the US? I guess I just feel that if it gets to that point...whats the difference. What happens when the Nordic countries (who are now terrified) decide that they want to join NATO? Ukraine 2.0? What happens when Finland wants in next? I guess its FAAFO

I agree, and I think it was discussed on this board, Putins plan was bomb the hell out of Ukraine so there is nothing left to join NATO and they take decades to rebuild, he was never going to occupy because thats impossible (Afghanistan 2.0), connect his land bridge to Crimea..and then try to "negotiate" away the consequences... BUT if he has nothing to negotiate, and neither party will compromise. Then how does it end. Then it comes down to how much Ukraine is willing to lose. Its pretty clear outside of some weapons, Ukraine is unfortunately on their own in this one. Putin can sit there and continue to lob in missiles for a month until there really is nothing at all left of Ukraine...meanwhile his holiness the Pope will continue to "be close to those who are suffering" and the rest of the world will change their FB profile pic to the Ukrainian flag and tweet "thoughts and prayers". World has come together for sanctions and humanitarian aid, I have a close friend that flew to Poland last week as refugee assistance and he said it was tremendously moving to see so many compassionate people helping others, almost got choked up telling me about it...but at the end of the day, thoughts and prayers, cookies and blankets has never stopped a dictator. The smarter move, if they want anything left of Ukraine is to give him the rogue regions that they've been fighting with anyway and start from there, the rest of the sanctions dont concern Ukraine as they asked for them but didnt impose them. IMO thats between Putin and the rest of the world, same as the other points. Have they even seen the Tier 1 fighters yet? Because the captured guys on video are the C-squad...they arent even equivalent to US National Guard, no battle tactics, no strategy, barely know how to use the equipment and weapons, not even a sandwich..these guys literally were told to just drive West and didnt even know what they were doing...Putin hasnt even used 1st string players yet has he? I saw the one Tank General or whatever was killed, but this honestly CAN NOT be the best the Russians have, they havent been using their "good" tanks or aircraft...or soldiers, so if I was Ukraine I would be expecting things to get "more serious" as this progresses and Putin gets frustrated and stops messing around. I could be wrong on this but it seems like he just sacrificed some 3rd stringers and blew through some of the old stock at the missile warehouse. I dont think he will get regime change, Zelensky was unanimously voted in by a wide margin (what was it 70 some %?) and he has certainly earned it thus far both in Ukraine and on the world stage, the guy is the real deal and tbh I have a little bit of President envy...(current and previous) I dont think the people would accept a regime change, thats too extreme, it will be another puppet like Belarus and then they mise well just take all of Ukraine. As for the East side, I dont know what Ukraine could do to stop that, probably too late, what is already captured I dont think they are gonna get back. Also lets assume that things are rolled back, will businesses really want to re-assume that risk, maybe its not an issue for another 5-8 years but they are then at the mercy of whatever day Putin wakes up on the wrong side of the bed. I think this behavior has some serious consequences even if things are rolled back, and it should be making companies think about doing business in other parts of the globe that could result in similar limitations. The longer this goes on IMO the Ukrainians are heading down a narrowing tunnel, but more time for Putin also means its harder to hide, more Russians maybe find out about it, feel the pain of any sanctions and become more disgruntled with current "leadership" and maybe something interesting happens in Russia via the citizens. Honestly I dont know how this gets negotiated with both sides feeling like its something they can stomach. Can anyone offer alternatives that Ukraine might actually go for? I personally dont think they should give an inch..but thats not reality and I also dont want to see the rock pile that used to be Ukraine. As for the Syrians..what does Ukraine do about that? Are there other large mercenary groups they can hire? Can they afford it? Assuming no French Foreign Legion, France in NATO but Legion technically not? I did see an interesting article about Soldiers from the UK going AWOL to fight in Ukraine and British gov "doing everything they can to get them to come back"...I said two weeks ago wait till a gov says that rogue warriors are over in Ukraine as plausible deniability. I just dont buy that...no solider I have ever known would go AWOL and throw away their career, risk court martial etc to go fight in another country..I think thats unlikely. they also didnt say how many...could be British SF for all we know, if true.

FOMO is a powerful drug... The recent meme/crypto gainz have been the most amazing thing I have seen in my lifetime with regard to the markets...no no I didnt make any money off them (I guess I did have one stock that I had held for years that had an elevated short interest and by association spiked to a 5 year high at which time I was ecstatic to exit immediately that morning, better to be lucky than good) but just the "discussions" among coworkers, many of whom IMO should just index...putting serious amounts of cash into names they see in the news..those discussions have quieted significantly... Alot of these guys should just go down to the gas station and buy a powerball ticket...at least they'll likely only "invest" $20 in that gamble...the markets and hysteria entice people to use real/significant dollar amounts at the chance for perceived life changing returns...the irony of this is, I do know a couple guys who did get in relatively early in the meme stonks...but then rode it all the way up...and then all the way back down below their CB...because when you dont understand what is going on they all think "it will come back, just have to ride it out, its all part of the game" so even when they do catch a lucky break, their understanding of what is going on is so elementary that they dont know when to exit and ultimately STILL end up in the red.

Great year! I have 2 1997 vehicles, daily is a 97 Camry with 165k runs like a top,, hoping for 2-3 more years out of her

lol true...they're def better golfers than I am, if you put $10k on the table in front of me and bet that in one swing I could drive a golf ball 100yrds with the club of my choice, I wouldnt take it cause I would give myself a 50/50 chance lol. Tennis...nadda. Next level.... I'm not in the horse polo crowd so I dont have to worry about embarrassing myself there at least...

Wow, never knew there were so many games! I'll have to look into those, the Mrs. loves some quality time in front of a board game at the cabin, but my experience have never gone much past Monopoly, Yahtzee, or if we wanna go waaaay back...Chutes n Ladders and Candyland lol. Assuming Amazon has all these of course..but do you have to go to a special game store for these or are they available at WMT/TGT types? I honestly never knew there were that many board games past the "classics" that probably every family had, Im a bit intrigued.

@cubsfan refugees anywhere generally dont enjoy the same standard of living as citizens, thats part of the deal...theyre refugees... But since you asked..Jordan has taken in 20% of the total Palestinian refugees. I've never been in a refugee camp, but I've been to Amman, it's no Omaha, but I enjoyed my time there.

@adesigar What are those? Star Trek is the only name I recognize. Assuming games of some sort?

@boilermaker75 I was fortunate enough to have an uncle that was a gearhead, spent many nights in the shop working on the Camaro and a 1978 F250 that I have (IMO the Dentside Ford trucks are the best looking trucks ever made). The simplicity of vehicles even 30 years ago blows my mind sometimes..to think that in 1990 you could still buy a new car that had a carb is hard to fathom! Contrast that today with GPS/Internet connection, autostart, complicated 4X4/AWD systems, hybrids, to say nothing of a Tesla...amazing the speed in which tech has changed transportation in such a short time. I do all basic maintenance on my vehicles now, oil, fluids, grease, brakes...basic stuff but I wouldnt feel comfortable tearing apart a DOHC or replacing a timing belt. The vehicles of the 60-70's and earlier were just so darn simple, nothing to them, even to tear apart a 327/350/302/426...couple little differences but the concept was the same across all platforms Ford/Chev/Mopar etc and once you "saw" it, it was simple to make sense of. I think what you are seeing in the lab can be seen across a variety of things. It seems to me to just be the way things are going, fewer and fewer DIY out there in any capacity. I grew up in a more rural community, everyone did probably 90% of what needed to be done themselves, construction, automotive, you name it. When I came to the city and met my significant other she couldnt believe that I did everything and had enough tools to resupply a HD. I had never realized that everyone wasnt like that because everyone I had ever known was, it just wasnt a big deal. Slowly as I assimilated into her friends group I too saw that none of the guys really did anything themselves, and ended up calling me to swap out garbage disposals or light fixtures, faucets etc in exchange for steak and beer. I dont know if those are geographical, generational, or socioeconomic differences, but they are there. To be clear, these guys have plenty of other skill sets, just different than what I considered basic. Also everyone has different abilities, some mechanical, some artistic. If you asked me to draw a person or a horse you're not gonna get much improvement over what I would have produced in the 1st grade...

Im no Nazi supporter obviously, their entire idea turns my stomach and makes me sick, that they would fly the Nazi flag makes me livid etc...BUT given the current circumstances...you have an already mobilized group of violent people with more experience than many in your army, ready to fight for your side against the Russians...I dont know that they can afford to tell them to "stand down and stand by" (see what I did there) when the Russians are rolling in. Im sure they figure, lets take care of the immediate threat, that we all die, first...and then work out our grievances after...America has these shit bags too, and I hate them...but if the Chinese or Russians were rolling through the streets of my town, I wouldnt ask the guy in the foxhole next to me if he was a Nazi...

I think Xerxes makes a decent point..and I think he is being rather unbias about it. I think he made it pretty clear he isnt singling out Israel. To ask why the Palestinians dont leave is to ask the same question as to why the Ukranians dont just leave... Also, the Israeli-Arab conflict has gone on for so long now that it has made it more difficult IMO. Generations on both sides seeing friends/family killed creates blood feuds, thats hard to stop. As Xerxes said, to the victor goes the spoils..and as he has said, this is a common thread throughout history, survival of the fittest, all the empires of the world were built/taken...Here in the US vs the British, the Indians, the civil war...when there is a dispute that cant be resolved diplomatically it comes to fisticuffs and the stronger opponent wins and gets his way.. I dont think its Isreals "fault" and I dont think Xerxes is saying that any more than the US expansion to the west "displaced" the native tribes, or the Dutch/Roman/British empires were at "fault" for their expansion, at least thats not how I am reading his statements...it just is what it is man. Throughout history, "I will do what I want, and unless you are stong enough to stop me, tough shit"...thats human nature.

Anyone have any input on this thought I had? I understand that Russia is censoring western media, FB etc. cutting the people off from any info that may describe this "military exercise" as War/Invasion...I also read that Anonymous has hacked things in Russia to expose the people to what is really happening, and reports say that 17k people have been arrested for protesting... But lets assume that there is a significant portion of the population that is still unaware of what is going on, there were videos of captured soldiers phoning home and relatives they spoke to didnt even know they were in Ukraine or what was going on... My question is...how does the Russian gov explain the sanctions? You can snowball people for so long until they notice none of their social media works anymore, they cant order Nikes, Disney is unavailable, the Ruble is crashing, the markets are crashing etc...what is their explanation for that? Sooner or later Russian people have to notice that they are being cut off from the rest of the world? Maybe it doesn't matter, as Putin and his gov have such a tight grip on the population and the penalties are so stiff for even saying anything that I dont think there is much the people could do even if they were aware and mad about it. My view is that Putin wont stop until Ukraine is a pile of rubble, you dont have to occupy a pile a rubble. Destroy everything so that it takes a generation to rebuild. I dont know that there is anything the Russian people could do to stop it either, he says Ukrainians are the same people and he has no problem sacrificing them, an uprising in Russia would likely yield the same result I suspect.

When I built our vacation home I used this: https://www.amazon.com/Viega-49143-1-2-Inch-PureFlow-Manabloc/dp/B008LAFEIE/ref=sr_1_5?keywords=manablock+pex+manifold&qid=1646706766&sprefix=manabloc%2Caps%2C195&sr=8-5 Worked very well, simple and orderly, even got a compliment from the building inspector. I had initially planned on building my own manifold but the price to build my own vs a commercially made manifold was not even close, so I just bought it and saved time/money. Each location is labeled with provided stickers and each run hot/cold can be shut off individually. Regardless of the brand, a manifold is the way to go, no brainer. As a side note, I have never personally had a pex connection leak, I always pressure the system up and hold, especially in areas that will be covered. I HAVE had sharkbite fittings leak to my surprise, they make a tool to ensure that you are 100% seated in the fitting, but I swore that it was seated after pushing in with all my might...sure enough had another 1/16 1/32 to get it totally seated...so Im personally a little leary sometimes using them but there is nothing easier when transitioning from copper to PEX, it beats soldering a connection.

As you know the 1st gen Camaro/Firebird share the same bodylines for the most part, thats a great looking car!. I actually prefer the 68's over the 69's and I like the 67 side vent windows... I bought the car as a basket case and went through the entire thing. I dont have many completed pics on this computer but enough to give you an idea of the project. All numbers match, 327 car with 4 speed. Literallt every nut and bolt replaced, upgraded vintage air system, full disc brake setup, all new interior...completely new car including backup cameras and apple car play with microphone in headliner. I actually dont like the wheels/tires on it, I got them for a great deal and couldnt pass up, but will be going back to the rally wheel look, I upgraded things tastefully to keep relatively original looking. As purchased: (Looks cleaner here than it actually was, after media blasting, there are no secrets...)

Ackman was going for an Emmy with his crying on MSNBC with the pandemic...this seems a little reserved with is calls for WW# compared to the sobbing before...but yes...everyone has seen his playbook and Im sure his positions are in, now hes talking his book.

Currently remodeling a lake home in prep for sale… I do everything myself. Other hobbies include woodworking, I have another cabin I am going to build a garage at in the spring and will use that shop to hopefully start building a drift boat. I previously worked at a boat shop restoring old wooden boats, ChrisCraft , Hackercraft, Garwood, combining woodworking and love for boats was great. Some archery, but mainly construction/woodworking related. My hobbies change depending on the project, usually my projects are large, so take a while and then I move on to the next interest. I spent 5 years restoring a 1968 Camaro that I still have, so at that time my hobbies were more automotive in nature.

Is it possible that countries start to limit or even outlaw the use of crypto? Article I read today about the EU concerned that Russian Oli’s may yse crypto to bypass sanctions… Just a thought, is this a positive or negative for crypto..My main concern for crypto has always been that it appeals most to those who don’t want to be tracked, on the system..I.e terrorists, drug dealers, Russian billionaires etc and the gov not wanting to allow that and possibly saying that they will ban its acceptance as it supports these activities. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-make-sure-russia-cannot-circumvent-sanctions-with-crypto-assets-le-maire-2022-03-02/

I agree and know what you’re saying, but what does the board really do? IMO the board is there at this stage of the game to just preserve the order as executors of Buffets “will” (that’s the way I look at it) and his daughter I would assume will be able to do that adequately. Greg, Ajit, Ted and Todd are the big players, IMO the board is almost like a technicality and there to make sure BRK isn’t broken up etc. The culture at BRK runs deep regardless of who sits on the board.

Guy has no idea what he is talking about…he is giving Russia way to much credit IMO, they are not avoiding civilian infrastructure, this is documented fact. And if they think that they are going to employ some strategy to get the Ukrainians to fall in line and become sub servant and under the Russian federation he is mistaken. IMO the Ukrainians will NEVER bow down to Putin. The damage is already done. Yes Russia could have completely obliterated Ukraine with missles, but would have had another problem on their hands. The world standing by while Ukraine fights its own battle is one thing, but if Russia would have completely inihilated Ukraine and turned it into a wasteland, genocide, I don’t know that the rest of the world would tolerate that, not that they are totally now. Also keep in mind, he is comparing apples to oranges…when the US went into Iraq, or the Gulf war, remember Schwarzkopf’s explanation of the invasion, that was a multi national siege against a formidable foe that was dug in. That was a war and both sides were ready and knew it was coming and the reasons were clear. US and allies against the republican guard. This is Putin invading a non hostile, non threatening neighbor for no reason other than personal agenda. THAT is the difference. He could have also said, look Russia is a nuclear power, they could have just nuked Ukraine like the US did to Japan in WW2 but they didn’t! See Russia doesn’t really want to harm Ukraine they are being merciful! His comparison is a joke. Russia is doing what they can to take over, without forcing the rest of the world to get involved more than they already have. It’s like watching a school yard fight where a senior football player kicks the shit out of a skinny little freshmen that didn’t want to fight in the first place and beats him bloody but saying because the senior didn’t shoot him with a gun, he’s really a good guy because he ultimately wants to be friends with the freshmen after its over….I mean come on, he is delusional. Zelensky is doing what he can with what he has. Ukrainians are on board with him, the men/women WANT to fight. They are fighting for their lives and everything they hold dear, this guy makes it sound like Sleensky is using them as pawns, he has it all wrong and speaks as someone who has never been in the situation where you back is against the wall and you have nothing left but the kitchen sink. And I agree, he is condemning Zelensky with no regard for Putins actions. I agree I think he is a Russian Shill, Ukraine has no chance against the full force of the Russian military, that’s just basic numbers etc, Russia has the resources to do what they want, its only a matter of time, but the Ukrainians are doing what they can to make it as difficult as they can on them. I also agree that the social media has a lot of fictitious stuff on it. The 80yr old Ukrainian lady giving the Russian solider sunflower seeds and saying she wants them to grow after his dead body is buried…I don’t believe that happened, the Ukranian road signs that have been changed to say F* off go home in each direction, I don’t believe that has happened. A lot of propaganda on both sides. Either way, its clear that Ukraine didn’t want this fight, did everything they could to prevent it, asked for help and are now being bullied and have a limited time left probably. Ukraine might be captured and put under rule of Russia but they wont accept it and it will be a long standing sore spot that they will never forget and probably continually resist for generations. Once you taste freedom its tough to go back to the alternative. Ukrainians have more freedom than Russians and that’s not something anybody would give up easily. We’ve all heard the adage “I’d rather die on my feet than live on my knees”.

Keep in mind the style of warfare in Vietnam/Afghanistan vs Ukraine/China/Taiwan is very very different. Mainly due to geographics and population density. Guerilla warfare with a difficult to identify enemy hiding in tunnels/mountains via terrain that benefits defending against an unfamiliar foe. Look at Ukraine…air defense and tanks lead to fighting in the streets. This IMO is closer to “normal” fighting that we could expect vs jungle and dessert, and gives more of an advantage to the superior firepower and tech weapons available to be used.

I agree, actual returns would be nice to know, but since their AUM has increased, Warren has given them high praise several times, and they are still working for BRK…I have to assume that they are providing adequate value and their interests are aligned. Beating or lagging the S&P by a couple points here and there are immaterial to me as it probably is with any value investor. My point being, if we knew they were beating regularly or lagging occasionally would it change my perception of them knowing that Warren has picked them for the job, has utmost confidence in them and is increasing their responsibilities…I don’t think it would. I think Warrens praise and show of approval by increasing available capital is enough for me, I trust that if their performance was unsatisfactory they would no longer be in thier position.

Picked up some FB under $200, was looking at some other names early, left the PC and was surprised to see the rally when I looked again toward close, didn’t expect that. Not saying that it will be sustained but man, continually hoping that this is the start of a sustained buying opportunity and it never lasts.

Thanks for heads up Ive had a tab open waiting for it all week, its posted now… https://www.semperaugustus.com/clientletter

Im a huge Munger fan...I appreciate his logic and his ability to be blunt...but he made a comment regarding the one-child policy that is probably gonna bring some criticism. Im not saying he is wrong...just that I dont know if I would have worded it the same way he did...to be honest I probably would have avoided a statement about it all together. ~37:30 to 39:00 mark of the video, regarding China's forced abortion policy. "...They (China) had to prevent 500 or 600 million people from even being born in China. They just measured the women's menstrual cycle when they came to work, and aborted those that weren't allowed. You can't do that in the United States, and it really needed doing in China"

Thought I would revisit this thread, wondering when the new letter from Semper is going to drop? I was looking back at previous letters and looked like they all released around Feb 14/15 in previous years so should be expecting it soon..I guess I would have expected it on the 14th but maybe now the 21st, this Monday? Always enjoy reading it as it pertains to BRK.