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Blugolds

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Everything posted by Blugolds

  1. Unpack that statement a bit, what is an uphill battle, also...generally positions that are made or allowed to get to be "gigantic" are not positions that Omaha would want to move in and out of...thats why they are "gigantic". They're pretty clear about their preferred holding period. Hefty tax bill is all relative...from your statement you are saying it would be preferred if he could quickly/nimbly move in and out of large positions? Unless selling for a loss on those positions thats a sure fire way to make sure Uncle Sam doesnt have to wait for his cut...
  2. My advice to you regarding lifting consistently can relate to investing...not individual stocks, but overall portfolio.. You will have good days and bad days in the gym, sickness, just not feeling it etc and maybe you dont hit your numbers but you went...the markets swing up and down daily and it doesnt really matter...the important thing is that hopefully your balance at the end of a year is higher than the start of the year...the same with the gym, after 6mo-1 yr you really see the difference. This means that it has to be managed...it has to be measured. Use an actual routine, find your starting numbers for the lifts you want to do and then add to them weekly, even if just 5lbs...track those numbers (I used to actually track body weight, weight/lifts in Excel monthly)when you SEE results its a motivator. Additionally it gives you a purpose when in the gym or working out at home. When I was in the gym all the time I had my workout printed weekly and brought it to the gym every day, each set was literally checked off with a pen, it gave me a "job" to complete. The majority of people in commercial gyms are just wondering aimlessly, machine to machine, trying different things...they're spinning their wheels, no idea where they are or where they are going. Its the equivalent of buying a stock just because you heard about it at the water cooler or on CNBC but never looking at the financials of the company or doing DD/DCA etc. Set goals (ie. Bench 200, Squat 300, Dead 400, Press 100 for total 1k lbs) then determine where you are starting at and when you watch those numbers start to rise and the graph line in Excel goes from bottom left to top right you wont be bored. Really it just comes down to what you wanna do..if you want to be active and build muscle you dont even need machine/setups/equipment...look at prisoners, situps, pushups, dips etc. Many have access to free weights, but the majority of their time is in the cell working out with body weight or improvised extra low weight/resistance. Without goals and measurable progress anything is boring, you dont even know if what you are doing is working. Pick random stocks that continually go down and see how enthusiastic anyone is about investing...do your DD, place your bets, watch your port grow and compare it to the SP500 to see that you are consistently beating it and that is motivation to continue, not boring at all. You want your workout time to be like the morning of an earnings release for a company you hold and know is gonna blow it out of the water. Also, if you are swimming or skating regularly, maybe stick (pun intended) with that, nothing wrong with that either...havent seen an unhealthy speed skater or competitive swimmer that I recall ever. Important thing is to find something that you enjoy and WORKS and just do it, and be consistent.....much like.....investing..
  3. 20+ years ago Starting Strength and the Bigger Faster Stronger programs were mandatory at our HS for football. The book in the video was required reading, and I still have my copy lol. We had the largest, best outfitted weight room in our division by far, full Hammer Strength lineup and before and after school time in the weight room was expected. It led to the most championship wins in the state. To speak to your statement regarding caloric surplus, you're absolutely right, anyone doing serious 5x5 compound lifts attempting to grow will need to really pound the food of you're going to be miserable. I remember back in the day depending on the position played, guys putting weight on would have peanut butter/jelly shakes before bed and some were on the GOMD (gallon of milk a day) regime. Combine the weights with summer 2-a-days and it was often still tough to keep weight on. I think it comes down to what your end goal is. Muscle definitely helps as one ages, but also equally if not more important is flexibility. The most all around fit people I have known did not have a large muscular appearance and didnt care what they could bench, squat, dead. This includes guys in SF. Focus was on functional strength using calisthenics and primarily body weight, combined with.....yoga. Some of those guys max bench etc would be laughable to some, but they could grab a vertical bar and plank out to a 90 degree angle with their body using reverse grip and hold it until you said when, drop and rep out 100 pushups without breathing heavy, then rep out the same sit-ups, and do the splits without a groan. Also when it comes to the compounds, form is EVERYTHING and without understanding body mechanics, the average person is gonna end up with shoulder/back/knee issues, so if someone wanted to go that route its worth getting a trainer for a couple sessions to instruct you on strict form, even if its just using the bar alone, first get the technique down, then add weight, if you start out with poor form you WILL do more damage than good. But hey, if Cubs is 68 and its working for him, more power to him, cant argue with that! At least you're doing something, my god the amount of guys I work with that are huffing walking up a single flight of stairs is shocking and sad....and....very American lol. IMO anyone who puts any effort in past say...40 is commendable because you're probably in the top 5-10% from what I have seen. Even old teammates I've had from various sports, its like they spent 25 years being in top level shape and then they throw it all away within 5 years, now when I see them you'd never believe they were D1 athletes, that includes 2 guys that made the pros, still massive genetic freaks, but they also put on at least 100lbs since the "glory days". Now rather than vertical and 40yrd stats, the numbers they hear are regarding cholesterol and hypertension, I went on a fishing trip with one of them and he brought along his CPAP machine, and these are not "old" guys...what a difference a decade makes. If someone is looking for physical activity as they age that will still keep them in shape, flexible and is easy on the joints, doesnt have a huge learning curve and they have access, arent into yoga etc...my best recommendation is swimming. Local YMCA or the like in your area often has early morning open time, super reasonable rates etc..and if you dont do it regularly, try to swim even 3 laps without stopping and see how you feel, amazing cardio, low stress on the joints and makes you feel like a kid again. Eventually when you get to the "golden" years I think it matters less what you do, and more that you just do SOMETHING...just move, sedentary=killer.
  4. Just an interesting tidbit regarding inflation, I don’t remember if I mentioned before but I have a close friend in the cattle business. Every year they split the herd, sell off maybe half and retain the breeders, anyone around ranching in general knows how this works. I think everyone has noticed how beef prices have climbed over the last year or so, its been in the news, you see it at the market. Yesterday his “buyer” called him asking if he would be willing to sell early this year and lock in price per pound. He asked what they were paying…$2.10/lb. For comparison, last year they got $1.20/lb. So if that is any indication of what to expect in the next year at the supermarket, take it for what its worth. My buddy said, come pick ‘em up! If the buyers are paying almost double what they were last year, if we can use that as a leading indicator…..
  5. Same, between bow, gun, muzzleloader, antlerless bonus tags a motivated hunter can put 5+ deer in the freezer this year..I usually do half that and it ends up as burger, steaks, and bacon (venison 50/50 with pork butts from Costco), summer sausage, brats etc the cost is about as close to free as you can get and that includes the initial investment of commercial grade/quality processing equipment ie. grinder, mixer, stuffer, vacuum chamber sealer. A personal favorite is canned venison. Chunks in pint/quart jars, 1t salt, beef bullion cube and a splash of beef broth, drop in pressure cooker for 90 minutes and you have a jar of deliciousness that doesn’t need to be refrigerated even, lasts for years and is the best tasting most tender quick meal you’ve ever had. Not everyone enjoys processing, but personally I would rather spend an afternoon in the garage with the game on, cracking a beer and cutting up meat than going to the grocery store and fighting the crowds and thats the honest truth. Im off the next two weeks, heading up to the cabin tomorrow to sit in the woods for a while, my favorite time of year.
  6. Out of curiosity where are you guys purchasing? I like the diversification of assets but sports memorabilia makes me a little skeptical sometimes even with certificates etc. there was a documentary a while back that I watched regarding forgeries. They had infiltrated the markets and almost impossible to tell. Holographic stickers, pictures, certificates, grading etc didn’t matter it can all be reproduced. I remember asking a close friend who owned a card shop if it was true and he said it was, and that he had encountered some examples over the years as there are many in the industry that are a bit “shady”. Just didn’t give me a warm fuzzy. How would a guy know? And maybe it doesn’t matter anyway, as perhaps you’re selling the certificate and it doesn’t have to be real, the next buyer just has to believe it is. That scares me. Not saying you fellas are buying fugazi’s but they’re out there. Also might not help my opinion when they guy I knew who owned a card/pro shop wasn’t the most trustworthy guy I know either. Not saying he’s selling fakes, but I’m also not 100% sure he wouldn’t be tempted to pass something along for a big payout. Also I guess I compare to other art, if they can reproduce oil paintings that pass X-ray inspection and dating etc seems like it would be nothing to pound out a ton of cardboard cards, and supporting documents. https://sportscollectorsdigest.com/.amp/news/fraud-forgery-fake-sports-memorabilia-cards-collectibles-fbi Just my personal feeling, I’d love to have a couple in the collection, but I don’t know that I’d feel comfortable enough to drop 5 figures on a card unless I was buying from a reputable auction house with documentation or something, eBay sellers set off some alarms in my head for some reason and I don’t know that even a small local shop would make me comfortable enough to pay “real” money for memorabilia.
  7. I read this book about a year ago…very interesting, both from business, entrepreneurship and philanthropy… I recommend it, easy read. https://www.amazon.com/Billionaire-Who-Wasnt-Secretly-Fortune/dp/1610393341
  8. https://www.costco.com/kirkland-signature-5w-30-full-synthetic-motor-oil-1-quart%2c-12-pack.product.100691500.html $25 for 6 quarts 5w-30 synthetic, Kirkland brand has been proven in tests/comparison to be on par with Mobile 1…its good stuff. I would strongly advise against using FRAM filters, google searches if you have questions. I tend to keep my vehicles for quite a while, if someone is trading up often it probably doesn’t matter then because you wont own it long enough for issues to show up. I run WIX filters, and they can be had for around $6 if you look online, I buy mine in packs of 5. Other good filers are Mobil and NAPA Gold. I probably still have some WIX 51042 for the GM 5.3 I took a 1999 Sierra to 240k miles before I passed the torch to another owner with no major issues. Another tip… I run Fumoto valves on my truck/suv vehicles, I don’t off road with them, so I don’t worry about breaking any off, literally makes an oil change a 5 min, tool-less job. Throw the catch can under the burb, flip the switch, its draining, pull oil cap, swap filter, flip Fomoto to closed and start pouring fresh oil in, cant be simpler. https://www.fumotousa.com Again if guys don’t plan on keeping vehicles past 100k miles probably doesn’t matter, but there IS a difference from a maintenance perspective running a quality synthetic oil for the long haul vs the bulk generic stuff from a Jiffy Lube etc and cheap filters. For $30-$35 ($25 oil and $5-$10 for filter) its the cheapest insurance you will ever buy and takes 5 min every couple months depending on how much you drive, I go 5k mi changes. Verified by family friends who are professional racers and own machine shops building engines for the racing community.
  9. A lot of this has to do with geographical location, and size of the boats/motors… In our area, predominately recreational/fishing I would give the overwhelming majority to Merc…other areas and larger boats, specifically down south its all Suzuki. Honda/Yamaha/Suzuki/ Merc all have pretty good reputations, many dealers make deals with motor manufacturers, or boat manufacturers make deals with inboard/outbord manufacturers to sell their brand exclusively so the customer buys a boat off the showroom with a motor already picked for them etc.
  10. I just recently sold a lake property, I sold for over asking and the Zestimate. Initially I thought I was a little late to the party, I planned on listing last year but with supply chain issues, the new windows I ordered for the place took 6 months to deliver, then 2 of the 11 windows delivered with cracks, so it took 3 more months for them to send 2 replacement windows out. I wanted it listed last summer and ended up having to wait till this summer to list and it worked out all right. There was a slow down in the market that we felt. I honestly didnt thin kit would make it past the first week. Only property available initially when listed on this recreational lake, prime lake lot level to the water, its own peninsula and kitty corner from the local supper club etc. Arguably the best lot on the lake. 14 showings in 2.5 weeks...one offer. Initial offer was insultingly low and was immediately rejected...counter came back still low but was a start for negotiations. ↓↑ 5K increments until I wouldnt budge and they wouldnt budge. They walked away..Fed did the next rate increase and they came back with an offer that matched my final offer and I accepted. The offer they submitted before the fed rate hike was contingent on them securing financing for 30 yrs at 5.75%....the offer that matched my final submitted after the fed hike was contingent on financing at 6.25%. Meanwhile another place came on the market that they were also interested in. Asking about $50k more than I was with 700sq ft more living space, slightly dated, lot wasnt as nice but was a nice lot. I was concerned that they would start pursing that property. That property was listed at the Zestimate. Long story short, with the markets slowing down, as soon as my property closed they dropped their asking price the $50k to match mine...it sat for another 2 weeks and was pending...I got an email yesterday that it had closed/sold and the sales price was $50k LOWER than mine sold for and nearly $100k less than the Zestimate. I agree that first time home buyers or the unsavvy probably give more weight to the Zestimate, but at the end of the day, the market sets the price, regardless of what you ask, or what Zillow says. I think when properties were selling the first day and everything was going gangbusters maybe the people looked to zestimate for conformation, but many of those sold for OVER the zestimate...now that people are looking at things perhaps a little closer, I am seeing several properties selling for LESS than the zestimate. I also have noticed that there are several changes in the zestimate numbers before you list, after sales in the area, after listing, during listing and after sale. I honestly dont think the algo is dialed in accurately. I have a duplex in another area that would confidently sell for over $100k more than the Zestimate just based on conservative cash flow numbers and other comps in the area. I dont think it accurately knows what the property is. Basically I think the Zestimate is trash on both ends. Could influence naïve buyers, but any decent realtor, or experienced buyer or seller probably doesnt pay attention to them.
  11. Yes still way more efficient than div...but it opens a door, how long does that 1% stay that low...thats how they introduce stuff...nbd its just 1%, pocket change..so they agree and then once it passes they start to creep it up over the years...Gov HOPING to cause a shift from buybacks to increase in div so that money is passed on to shareholders and they get their cut...forcing taxes to be paid. Never underestimate the gov motivation to change the rules of the game to allow them to reach their hands into the avg guys pockets..I laugh at the other quote below...about comparing the carried interest loophole only raising $14B in taxes...like that seems insignificant vs the $125B from the repurchase tax..The fact that they even have the option to carry interest vs the avg guy is a joke and I cant believe more people dont throw a fit about it, the avg guy probably doesnt even have a clue. Also that $14B sounds low as other sources claim closing it could raise 1.4-18B anually...so ofcourse they pick the very bottom end of the estimate LOL..nothing to see here folks, minor technicality. I would consider the below paragraph a POSITIVE. "Democrats may agree to scale back elements of a proposed 15% minimum tax on large companies, according to reports. They may also remove a provision that would close the carried interest loophole, which allows private-equity partners to pay the lower capital-gains tax rate on income rather than ordinary income-tax rates." At the time, the administration estimated that a 1% repurchase tax could generate about $125 billion in revenue over 10 years. For comparison, the carried interest loophole would have raised $14 billion in taxes. Treating carried interest income as ordinary compensation income could raise between $1.4 billion and $18 billion annually. A significant majority of voters across parties support legislation that would close this loophole. https://ourfinancialsecurity.org/2021/10/close-the-carried-interest-loophole-that-is-a-tax-dodge-for-super-rich-private-equity-executives/ For comparison...if they would have used the HIGH end of the estimate of carried interest loophole tax raise...$18B annually...over 10 years, thats $180B over the decade...and MUCH closer to that $125B from the 1% repurchase tax...but we wouldnt want people to realize potentially thats how much money these special folks are hiding from uncle sam...better to distract them by focusing on the people on welfare getting their $500/month check and living off the system...those are the people in front of you in line at the store...they are the real problem. Dont get me wrong, people gaming the system make me mad as well, but it really grinds my gears when the avg guy doesnt realize how so many are able to legally game the system for order of magnitude more and nobody has a problem with it, IF they even know about it or realize it. Meanwhile those in the middle of the pack...arent in the upper echelons enough to benefit from the special rules...but make too much to benefit from any breaks...and end up paying 30-40% in taxes. I get smoked every year. Allow me to take minimum amount I need from my employer to pay bills and keep the rest of the income in an "investment account" to get the snowball rolling...then when I finally want to use that money I'll just pay my LTCG tax on it rather than my 30%+ and I would be all for it! Oh well...guess I'll just have to keep skipping the Starbucks and pick myself up by the bootstraps, work harder and apply myself till I get to the next level.
  12. 56% of imported oil to the US is that low API from the Canadian oil sands... and the problem isnt that Canada cant produce full tilt, they have increased exponentially and ship the surplus overseas... The ability to run very sour crude requires different design/metallurgy at refineries. Increased maintenance and investment...investment that southern refineries may have not made because they didnt have to, if they run sweet feed. So even if the US bought every bit of sour feed the Canadians could give us, we couldnt run it without significant changes/investment made to those large refineries set up to run sweet. There are a few Northern refineries in the country that pull right off the pipeline and are built to run the cheap sour crude from Canada...a significant competitive advantage...pulling first off the pipeline, buying the cheapest feed available, that often doesnt have another buyer because the guys down south cant run it without upgrades. Its nasty stuff and if your design is to run API of 30+ you arent gonna be able to handle feed API of 10...enter the upgraders and synbit, western canadian select ,there are some more modern refiners here in the states that basically upgrade it themselves so they can take the nasty stuff. But there's a little more to it than canada just not producing full tilt. Not just metallurgy, additional process equipment/units, catalyst needs are significantly different etc. "Canada's oil sands production is at a record 3.5 million barrels a day. Most of that is exported to use in the United States, but a growing number of barrels are transiting the country to the U.S. Gulf Coast, where it is then re-exported. In 2021, Canadian exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast averaged more than 180,000 bpd, reaching nearly 300,000 bpd in December" "Production has increased about 3% on average per year through the last decade, and is expected to reach 3 million bpd in 2020, and possibly even 5 million bpd by 2030, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. To put these numbers into perspective, the total world output last year was roughly 85 million bopd, meaning that crude production from the oil sands will make a significant contribution to our current and future energy balance."
  13. I actually got assigned quite a few of those I mentioned over the last couple months…hindsight is again, I should have been more aggressive..but at the time I thought/hoped it would continue to go lower. They weren’t all assigned obviously..but I’m glad some were.
  14. Well, we’re almost neighbors! Spend quite a bit of time up on the north shores of Gitche Gumee, northern WI and MN. I just spent a week in Voyagers National Park, took the boat 16mi back in to an island campsite, enjoyed the northern lights, and ate fresh fish every night. Somehow a snake made its way into the boat (still haven’t figured that one out but made for an interesting couple minutes) checked out Kettle Falls, most enjoyably no cell phones etc work, so its a great way to check out for a bit. 3 of us went in, left Sunday morning, 2 boats, the main boat was a new Lund set up for big water walleyes, the other was a small 14ft oldie with a 25hp Merc…the trip in was fine, clear skies and smooth sailing, hardly any wind…by the time we were ready to go, the weather had changed drastically, tremendous wind, storms and rain, when we left the storms/rains had stopped but the wind was still a little rowdy, I rode in on the newer boat, but when we left, the buddy who was captaining the smaller boat decided that the water was too rough and that he didnt wanna try it, I told him no problem, I would take it back to the visitors center were we put in and he could take it easy in the comfy newer model….. He snapped a pic of me during the trip…. I was completely drenched, I had that little 25hp pegged WFO the whole trip, up/down/left/right, it was pretty much chaos the entire trip back, and it took us about an hour to go the 16mi in good weather, so these waters made for a pretty firm grip on the tiller for a couple hours.. Shortly after I pulled the boat up to the dock, I was sitting there for a minute…kinda glad it was over…and a Sheriffs boat was just pulling in to the slip next to me, he said…”It’s pretty rough out there, you might not wanna head out…” I said…”Head out! I just got in!” Do you know a Dr. Leo Marvin? Where do you have vacation homes? Had two lake cabins on spectate lakes in Northern WI, sale just closed one last Friday, downsizing and prices were high, market in that area has cooled off even since the bringing of summer. The remaining cabin is 2hrs from home, just enough to feel like you’re getting away but not enough to feel like a pain to get there. I’ve built this remaking place from the ground up so its been enjoyable, but generally I don’t like the idea of another property to care for, maintain and feel obligated to go to since its costing money, mostly I like the freedom to try other places and explore so if I end up selling this one as well, I don’t think I would own another vacation place..I can rent Airbnb wherever you want for weeks per year at a cost of less than just the property taxes on a place…don’t get me wrong, it can make sense, I just think I would go a different route. Where are your repeat vacation spots? In-country my favorite is Northern MN, and the western states, primarily Montana. I had family on the east coast and enjoyed regular trips to Maine…it actually reminded me quite a bit of….Northern MN. Internationally, I love Italy, the culture, the history, the food, the architecture…and the “Scenery” isn’t bad either. I swear an Italian 2 > MN 10. What are must see places? (North America vs Internationally) North American National parks are great, my favorite is Glacier NP in Montana, probably followed by Banff NP. International I would tailor to your personal interests..Amsterdam has some interesting history with regard to previous trade, commerce, past world power, naval superiority, Anne Frank house, art, a lot of interesting stuff I enjoyed there, but everyone thinks of drugs and girls (I didnt sample either). Some people love to sit on a beach and drink all day in the sun…to me that is boring so my travels usually involve experiences with historical things, adventures, cultures…I don’t care for tourist traps really, I like to get off the beaten path and experience the area from the locals view if possible. What is your next adventure? Had a trip to Spain/Austria booked that got canceled due to Covid…probably will rebook that one, I have wanted to go to Japan for a while, so thanks to the poster above for recommending Kyoto, I have been almost everywhere that I would like in my “1st tier” choices in the world..I’m now starting to either revisit them or get into the 2nd tier..I seem to always sneak Italy in there, Istanbul is on the short list, probably spend some time in Panama, I have a friend there that I built a 36ft sailboat with, he bought a bed and breakfast there when he retired and has been asking me to come down for a while. I would like to spend some more time in the Nordic countries, Sweden. Finland, Norway….can always use more Hygge.
  15. I felt the same way…tells you all you need to know about what they think of us in the west.. As for signing the bombs…this has been done for years, messages on tanks, helmets, munitions, by those in combat, but to commercialize it for average citizens to me is a bit hypocritical… If Ukraine found out Russians were doing this it would be all over the news, sick demented attackers write messages on munitions that level the country…The fact is that those munitions that the US has already given them, for free…are now used as some fun messaging system for anyone with a couple bucks and are potentially killing Russians…lacks a bit of class to me. This isn’t some game, where any instagramer or YouTuber can pay $40 and have their hashtag put on the side of an artillery shell to me is ridiculous and detracts from the seriousness of the situation. As much as I’d like to see Putin or Kim Jung, or any dictator removed, I wouldn’t celebrate killing Russians.. .
  16. Not to turn this into a western thread but just thought of another classic that Ive seen a hundred times and was one of my favorites as a kid…EL DORADO The DUKE Robert Mitchum James Caan RIO BRAVO was great…Ricky Nelson and Deano did a great job as well… I’ll have to check out Hell or High Water and Bone Tomahawk. I saw the poster for the Hanks one but I guess I didnt see a trailer or realize it was a western…prolly have to check that out too…
  17. I know I've seen it over a dozen times...tons of good one liners from that move..."how is it on stains?"...."Missouri boat ride"
  18. Glad you liked it, I felt the same about Yellowstone, too much BS for me, 1883 to me was more of a "real" western. Always been a fan of westerns although they seem to be lowest on priority for movie/show producers...before Yellowstone/1883 when was the last western movie/tv series? They avg one like every 10 years (couple random no names) ...meanwhile they will make Fast and Furious 25 or some of those other names that are played out but guarantee a base number at the box office...westerns probably just dont put up the numbers...why take a risk producing a western that isnt as popular as it was in the 70's when they can just make (or remake) another show that has a chance of a better return. Been a while since there were good names: Tombstone (one of my favorites) Wyatt Erp 3:10 Yuma Open Range (slow movie till the last gunfight) Lonesome Dove (classic) Unforgiven True Grit (didnt think it was great) Old Henry (I thought that was pretty good) Quentin Tarantino westerns (thought they were decent but not typical westerns obviously) Before that you'd have to go back to Dances with Wolves (one of the best obviously) And then you're into the Clint Eastwood/John Wayne era Outlaw Josey Wales probably my all time favorite. Hoping if 1883 is a hit maybe that will increase, I'd like to see Elliot in more stuff, even though he is getting older he still nails the cowboy role IMO.
  19. Also many employers froze wage increases for 2 years due to the pandemic...only recently reinstating raises to retain employees due to the current labor market to stay competitive and retain workers...so workers missed a couple years worth of raises and now maybe get 3-5%...but over the past 2-3 years they might net 5% total wage increase all coming recently rather than 3,3,3...they got 0,0,3-5...but if they had maintained that 3% each year...they would have been further ahead.
  20. Wrote BRKB puts, July 22 exp, 260 strike, over a buck.
  21. I have an investment for you...here's my pitch $50k initial investment The day you "invest" it will drop $10k (20%) Additionally your investment will NEVER be worth more than $50k it will actually continue to depreciate each year Oh also, there is an ER of 3-4% Any takers? Its all psychological. People apprehensive to put $50k in an account and within 6 months it drops 20% and they panic....same guy has no problem going to a dealership and buying a $50k truck and having it drop $10k as soon as he drives off the lot...not to mention he is paying 3-4% for that "privilege" on the auto loan, and doesnt think twice about it. There are tons of examples of this...people make decisions EVERY DAY that are HORRIBLE investments, some large like auto, boats, campers other toys..and they happily take the hit...some smaller like subscription based sign ups, services, not shopping insurance, home upgrades that they will NEVER get the money back out of etc etc....but when it comes to doing what is actually in their best interest (no pun intended) they act irrationally and get all emotional about it because they see a little red in the account. Put the money in and stop thinking in 6-12mo windows...when you view things through a 5-10 yr lens things look totally different. If you know what you're buying, have done your homework and the ability to stay rational you should do fine. Obviously you need transportation, and not everyone is gonna be rolling around in some 1991 Chevy Lumina ghetto hoopty because its the best ROI...but my point is...people are so emotional about ROI when it comes to the things that are actually capable of giving them a return! But then when it comes to other things that probably make up the majority of their monthly spend, they throw any caution to the wind and dont consider the same metrics. I have a coworker concerned about 401K balances dropping and in the last year they have bought a brand new $70k truck, $50k camper 5th wheel, put in a $100k inground pool, even bought a new $13k commercial lawnmower...thats over a quarter million "invested" that the return will be horrible on...if we're speaking strictly from an investment standpoint...but IVV is down 18% YTD and its got him flustered LOL...I mean come on...sometimes people need to put stuff in perspective..
  22. Buffett knew the moat and knew the business very well. I dont know where you got the above quote comping it to HD...but at one time remember HD bikes were selling for over MSRP before owners even took delivery, they were selling their spot in line for profit. So everything has its heyday. Since the quote calls the company something that appeals to "boomers" did the author go on to recommend AMC, GME or BTC holdings to a solid reliable and predictable investment that has been around for 100 years. Regardless, See's has been a solid investment for BRK, the investment has already paid off and IMO anything now is icing on the cake. https://news.yahoo.com/sees-candies-record-quarter-170456133.html He recognized that See’s had 3 distinct advantages: It possessed a strong built-in customer loyalty moat Its product was so good that customers would tolerate price hikes It required very little operating capital In 1982, Buffett was offered $125m for See’s — 5x the $25m he’d paid for it just 10 years earlier, or a 20% compound annual growth rate. He passed, opting to let the company slowly chug along. Buffett’s rejection of the $125m offer would turn out to be a smart move. Since 1972, the company has given Berkshire Hathaway well over $2B in income. That’s a return of more than 8k%, or 160%+ per year. Over the same time period, the small operation required only $32m in capital to run. “Modest physical growth,” wrote Buffett in 2007, had led to “immodest financial growth.” See’s provided Berkshire Hathaway with a reliable stream of capital that it used to buy into other attractive businesses. In the late 1980s, he used See’s profits to buy Coca-Cola shares, which are now collectively worth more than $25B. Today, See’s Candies sell for $22.50 per pound — about double the 1972 price, after adjusting for inflation — but its customers have remained loyal." As to if the company was publicly traded would anybody own it...that all depends on the price you give for the value you get...just like anything else and at .1% of BRK holdings there are better things to spend time contemplating with regard to BRK IMO.
  23. I guess other states do this as well, they funded a significant portion of the MN Viking stadium thanks to these little fellas.. I don’t gamble either, but its almost a cultural thing, any supper, club, bar, etc has a lady sitting in the corner at the pull tab desk with boxes of these tabs, or tabs in stacks in a machine…each group of tabs containers winners, some could be $1 (your money back) or maybe $500 and some in between…when there is a winner out of that group, pile, stack of tabs, they cross the win out on a board…so you can see that the stack or pile is high, and the $500 tabs were already won…probably wont get much play on that one…but say the normal 12” high stack is down to 4-5” and all the $500/$250/$100 winners are still in there…many will “buy it out” 100 tickets for $100 in the change to get those bigger winners… Some bars are good about keeping the winner board updated, but some don’t do it, or do it late…because they know they sell more if the odds are better…if you are sitting on a pile of tabs and the first 10 are winners and crossed off the board, you’d probably be sitting on that group of tabs as a bar owner for a while. Here is a video for reference…people are annoying but it gives you an idea.. Start :30 in..
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