cwericb

Average prices are up 40% in the past three years. Yes we are a small market but I don't see this stopping any time soon.

At least somebody still likes FFH... https://seekingalpha.com/article/4287873-fairfax-market-yet-recognize-potential?dr=1

There is another factor that may have an effect on the housing prices in Canada's major cities. At one time a lot of people were tied to living in the large congested metropolitan areas. But today that is no longer the case for many. Many jobs are portable today and a lot of people no longer have to suffer living in the dense, urban, crime infested cities and are free to relocate to more desirable areas of the country. As they say, “water seeks its own level”. As more and more people realize that they don’t have to live in Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary, etc, it is pushing up prices in the more desirable areas of the country and this will not stop until prices tend to level off somewhat. Here, we have a high level of immigration. When I moved to a new city here last year I asked my insurance agent if he was seeing a lot of immigrants moving. He said yes, they were seeing a lot of new comers. I asked where most were coming from, expecting China, Pakistan, Phillippines, etc. He said “Ontario”.

FWIW I have said in the past that you can't judge all of Canada by one or two cities and think that applies nationally. In the city where I live housing prices have have increased by nearly 40% in the past three years. Apartment/condo vacancy rate is still about 0% I don't see this changing any time soon.

Further to my previous post regarding Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and in answer to BG2008: http://www.tourismpei.com/ http://www.novascotia.com/ http://www.tourismnewbrunswick.ca/ You will look a long time to find a more beautiful area. This IS Eastern Canada - and do not forget Newfoundland. PS. We are only a days drive from Boston, New York, etc, etc or less than a couple of hours by air.

Well first off you are not really talking about Eastern Canada. Ontario & Quebec are considered Central Canada. If you really want to have an interesting visit, you really should go to Eastern Canada - the Atlantic Provinces and/or the Maritimes. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island and you will see a lot of beautiful scenery, some of the world's best beaches and some of the best food in the country.

Jeez, isn't it pretty simple? If ya don’t want to read or comment on it why would you click on it? It’s like the little old lady demonstrating against porn and spends most of her day researching those sites. Why do some board members believe that they should be in a position to restrict others what others may and may not discuss? Is the discussion of politcs beneath them? What's being suggested is simple censorship. Unfortunately some who do comment on the subject tend to show their lack of civility by calling or referring to others by juvenile names which tends to discredit their comments. But this is not just restricted to the Politics section as most long term members would know. Again, like it or not, politics has a substantial bearing on investing.

"Almost every investment decision we make, has a political element to it" Exactly. Why do some people think the board should be censored to suit them? If you don't want to see something - don't click on it. Don't try to prevent others from participating just because you don't like something. Why would you complain about viewing something when you have to make a conscious decision to view it? Is the temptation so strong that you have to have the topic hidden or removed from your view? Today's society is filled with too many people who seem to want to impose their personal views on everyone else and dictate what we can see and do and what we can't see and do. It is fine to express an opinion, but a line is crossed when someone wants to impose that opinion on others. One thing I have learned from occasional forays into the political section is that it gives you an idea of where some board members are coming from in their investment comments and their credibility. On the subject of "Ignore" there are times when I see what appears to be a really clueless post and think, 'what's the matter with that guy, didn't he read the previous posts?' I believe the answer is that he had other posters on "ignore". jmho

We too have a lot of Chinese immigrants who have bought high end homes in upscale subdivisions. But here, many are spending large sums on renovating their basements into apartments. Not really legal of course. I am in the opposite end of the country and the vacancy rate here is about zero. Combining that with the fact that we also have had the fastest population growth rate in the country for the past two years would suggest that the collapse of the housing market is not going to happen here any time soon.

Factor this in: World population 1960: 3 billion World population 2018: 7.7 billion Canada population 1960: 18 million Canada population 2018: 37 million People have to live somewhere.

I recently posted this in another thread but since it directly relates to this thread I will put my two cents in here. This thread started with Garth Turner’s statement ... “The big real estate bubble about to burst in Canada”. Many board members agreed and believed the collapse was imminent. However, that statement and this thread originated in February of 2012 - SEVEN years ago. Certainly nothing has collapsed since then. At this point, even if it does collapse, will property prices drop to pre-2012 levels? I am glad I haven’t been sitting waiting for the collapse to purchase a new home. Why hasn’t the Canadian market collapsed? This might have something to do with it: 10 Most Liveable Cities in 2018 1. Vienna, Austria 2. Melbourne, Australia 3. Osaka, Japan 4. Calgary, Canada (average home price $431,000 CAD - $328,000 U$) 5. Sydney, Australia 6. Vancouver, Canada (average home price $1,092,000 - $832,000 U$) 7. Tokyo, Japan 8. Toronto, Canada (average home price $766,000 - $584,000 U$) 9. Copenhagen, Denmark 10. Adelaide, Australia The first U.S. city on the list is Honolulu. But you won’t find it until you get to number 26 with an average home price of $800,000 U$. And in Hawaii you don’t have the expense of building for well below zero temperatures, nor do you have to battle winter conditions during construction. In other words - it ain't cheap to build in Canada. As Canada is relatively welcoming to immigration, the laws of supply and demand kick in. Remember housing prices are only expensive in relation to one’s personal wealth. What may be expensive to me may well be cheap to an immigrant with a few hundred million in their back pocket. I am involved in the construction industry and most people have no idea of the extent of the wealth some of these people immigrating into our country have. Most of the people I encounter are looking for real estate as a relatively safe haven for their money. Had a older lady newly arrived from Iran come in recently doing some home renos. She asked if I knew of anyone who might have an apartment for sale. “Are you thinking of selling your house and looking for an apartment?”, I asked. “No, no I want to buy building.” “Well, I know of an 18 unit starting shortly.” “That’s exactly what I want. I want to buy a few of those.” But that pales in comparison to some of the Asian money we see. And we are a relatively small place. It also seems that many investors from outside Canada don’t understand that, unlike the US a decade ago, a lot of our mortgages are in effect government guaranteed through CMHC, others require a substantial down payment and in general our mortgages are not non-recourse loans. You can’t throw your keys on the banker’s desk and just walk away. So a correction in housing prices certainly would effect the economy, but not likely to the extent we saw in the U.S. meltdown of a decade ago. While our economy certainly has its problems, this is still not a bad place to live - and you don’t have to look far to make a comparison. We also have an upcoming election that may show an improved change in direction should a new government realize that there is more to Canada than the two central provinces. Could housing prices collapse. Certainly anything can happen. But I would think twice about putting off buying a house for that reason because the bottom line is that unlike your stock portfolio, you can live in your house. Just my humble opinion.

We keep hearing all the bad predictions about Canada‘s economy and the pending bursting of the “housing bubble” and its catastrophic effect. Check out the thread here “Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada” in which Mr. Turner states... “The big real estate bubble about to burst in canada”. Many board members agreed and believed the collapse was imminent. However that thread and statement was in February 2012 - SEVEN years ago. That still hasn’t happened and while prices may decline, certainly nothing has ‘Burst” since 2012. This might have something to do with it: 10 Most Liveable Cities in 2018 1. Vienna, Austria 2. Melbourne, Australia 3. Osaka, Japan 4. Calgary, Canada (average home price $431,000 CAD - $328,000 U$) 5. Sydney, Australia 6. Vancouver, Canada (average home price $1,092,000 - $832,000 U$) 7. Tokyo, Japan 8. Toronto, Canada (average home price $766,000 - $584,000 U$) 9. Copenhagen, Denmark 10. Adelaide, Australia The first U.S. city on the list is Honolulu. But you won’t find it until you get to #26 with an average home price of $800,000 U$. As Canada is relatively welcoming to immigration, the laws of supply and demand kick in. Remember housing prices are only expensive in relation to one’s personal wealth. What may be expensive to me may well be cheap to an immigrant with a few hundred million in their back pocket. It also seems that many investors from outside Canada don’t understand that, unlike the US a decade ago, a lot of our mortgages are in effect government guaranteed, others require a substantial down payment and in general our mortgages are not non-recourse loans. You can’t throw your keys on the banker’s desk and just walk away. While our economy certainly has its problems, this is still not a bad place to live. We also have an upcoming election that may show an improved change in direction should a new government realize that there is more to Canada than the two central provinces.

For years FFH were very good investors. But as insurers, not so great. In recent years they have become quite good insurers. But as investors, not so great. I think there is a very good chance that they can put it all together going forward. Senior staff of FFH have been around for a long time. They are not stupid and learn from their miscues.

That's one of the things that I like - but find confusing - about FFH is that after posting good results, there is often a delay of several days before the stock price reacts. It's almost like having advance notice of the results.

Fairfax boosts holdings in Fairfax Africa in sub voting shares to 20% Jun. 19, 2018 8:56 AM ET Fairfax Financial Holdings (OTCPK:FRFHF) boosts holdings in Fairfax Africa's (OTCPK:FFXXF) subordinate voting shares to 20.1% from 12.5%. Fairfax Financial acquired 4.1M of Fairfax Africa's sub voting shares at US$12.25 per share through Fairfax Africa's previously announced bought deal public offering. The aggregate purchase price is US$50.2M. Fairfax's total holdings increase to 6.6M Fairfax Africa sub voting shares from 2.5M. Fairfax’s aggregate ownership, control and direction of the subordinate voting shares and multiple voting shares after the offering represents an about 58.2% equity interest and an approximate 98.3% voting interest in Fairfax Africa.

Eric, get the best lawyer you can afford. As Sarg said "The absolutely most important thing for Eric is to get a top notch local attorney who specializes in family law, ideally one whose primary practice is representing male clients. He should be familiar with the local judges and know their biases." However you might replace the "he" in the above statement with "she" if applicable. Now I take a little issue with the other part of Sarg's statement... "He should be a tiger." Not necessarily so. I have seen two lawyers get into a pissing contest and make personally 'winning' all important and didn't give a damn about how much it was costing their client in legal fees. At some point compromises must be made. It still burns me that after all was more or less settled I had to write my X a large check just to get the process finished. It was a good investment. It can be a very, very stressful process and very depressing time. Just remember the old saying" Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday" Things will eventually get better and you will recover and move on. Hope this helps.

Gregson did well with The Brick and FFH has some experience in the sector with Megablocks.

Anyone expecting to see autonomous cars running on our highways has a long, long wait ahead. Perhaps in sunny south California, but not in the snow belt and not on rural two lane highways during the winter where there are no lines on the roads and where snow drifts and whiteouts can crop up in minutes.

Results came out on the 15th. On the 16th, Crip and I both pointed out that there often seems to be a time lag between the time the results come out and share price movement. Share price has barely moved until today and now pops 4-5%. This happens quite frequently and is almost like having advance knowledge of the results.

Anyone who held shares in Fibrek when Resolute took them over back 2011 knows that the “Fair and Friendly” Fairfax motto applies only to Fairfax self interest. However, I would reserve criticisms of Ben Watsa until someone can show evidence of his performance or lack thereof. If he does a good job I don’t care who his father is. But until someone can show that he is doing a poor job it is a bit unfair to criticize him simply because of his age or who his father is. As far as PW’s salary is concerned, how many other companies of Fairfax’s size has a CEO with a $600k salary? Sure he also gets the $10 dividend, but so do we.

"We've seen multiple instances of earnings coming out for FFH where price movement is relatively stable for 1-3 days only to see a significant move up (3-5%)" That is absolutely right. I have noticed the same thing several times over the years. Any guesses as to why? The only thing I can think of is that FFH is just so far under the radar its like "Oh gee look at that, Fairfax posted some good results perhaps I should pick some up." At times for me, it has been like having inside information about the results before they are posted. I'd be picking up more but I am already over concentrated in Fairfax. FIH.U is up 4% though.

It is definitely going to be interesting to see how this all settles out. They have been very patient sitting on their cash, so they must be pretty sure they have picked this up at the right price. (Reuters) - Insurer Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd said on Monday it would buy some Canadian assets of bankrupt UK-based construction and services company Carillion for an undisclosed amount. The deal would include facilities management at airports, commercial and retail properties, defense and select healthcare units, Fairfax said. Carillion collapsed on Jan. 15 after its banks halted funding, triggering Britain's biggest corporate failure in a decade and forcing the government to step in to guarantee public services from school meals to roadworks. Fairfax will also assume certain liabilities related to Carillion's Canadian operations. Canada is one of the largest markets for Carillion outside the UK. Canadian unions had previously urged Ontario's provincial government to end hospital services privatization after the collapse of Carillion.

But they are not buying ALL of Carillions operations...

The Outland part of Carillion might be a good fit with Cara ? Outland, a Carillion company, is a leading provider of remote site accommodation and associated services, including camp management, catering, maintenance, housekeeping and tree planting to public and private sector customers across a wide range of industries, such as mining, utilities, forestry, oil and gas. This partnership complements the existing skills and capabilities of Carillion's support services business and enhances prospects for growth of our support services activities for clients across Canada. For more information on Outland, please visit: www.outland.ca.

Added to T-WCP, T-PPR, T-BTE. Initiated T-CJ. Sold some T-OBE