Dinar
-
Posts
1,986 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Dinar
-
-
14 minutes ago, Jaygo said:
I have a much easier time finding value here though. Wajax, FFH, DOO, Doman, Equitable all under 10P/E
The US equivalents are generally valued higher.
What do you think is a sustainable level of profits for Wajax and why? Thank you.
-
-
55 minutes ago, gfp said:
I knew it was coming and Dinar did not make us wait for long. Take a trip out of New York City Dinar. There's a whole country full of hard working Latino immigrants out there literally building the country. It doesn't make sense to send them to NYC. That was a political stunt. Let them naturally flow to where they are needed and have family support systems.
The country does NOT need unskilled labor. Immigration depresses wages and raises housing costs. We have plenty of unskilled people on welfare who can do these jobs. There are hundreds of millions of unskilled people in Africa, Latin America, Arab world, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Afghanistan. You want all of them here? There are millions of Haitians who ruined their country, what will happen to the US if they come here?
-
6 hours ago, changegonnacome said:
Don't agree with the view that 3-4% inflation as some kind of new normal is a nothing burger......if it's the new normal going forward you should probably get short the trillions of assets that are pricing in a return to sustainable low 2's inflation......if the Fed throws in the towel and just implicitly or explicitly says hey 3.x% is a pretty good inflation number if we can keep unemployment below 5%....you've got a tonne stuff out there which has to incorporate that inflation drag on the future returns demanded.
One thing I do agree with @Gregmal on.....is that Powell has somewhat shown his cards.......he was pretending to be Volker....but he's really Alan Greenspan....cause with relatively limited forward visibility on his actual 2% target being achieved......he started hitching up his skirt and talking about rate cuts....and so he's going to use his dual employment mandate as a reason, at any sign of trouble, to start cutting I think.......and he might get away with it...in some respects the dual mandate has codified the Fed put...the progress on inflation has been impressive without a weakening in economic fundamentals to achieve it.........I fundamentally misjudged productivity....both underlying innovation productivity and the secret productivity gains that came post COVID from illegal & legal immigration ramping up again which have been the hidden secret of the domestic deflationary wins we've had....that and China's economic woes exporting large disinflationary forces to the rest of the world but the USA most strongly helping on the import side. Not sure if its enough to get us to two.....but getting to mid-3's with this little economic should be something to be thankful for.
It's kind of upside down world.....turn on the TV.......and its the crisis at the southern border....Crisis? You mean the one that keeps sending industrious young people North who want to have families and are lining up to work on construction sites, clean drains, bus tables and generally work like three jobs in an economy/country thats sparsely populated, resource rich and fundamentally short labor while the rest of the world is facing demographic collapse & a kind of endemic laziness & lack of industriousness.....or maybe its Cold War 2.0 'crisis' with our enemy China?......the enemy that is exporting a tonne of goods disinflation to us now and accepting printed dollars in exchange for those very real goods they send....all from a sovereign fiscal authority that is printing 7% annual budget deficits in economic good times with a debt to gdp of 120%.....I mean lots of countries would love to a couple of crisis like that going on simultaneously.
What world do you live in? In NYC, these "industrious" young people are busy standing in line for free food, get free housing and healthcare, crowd out hospital emergency rooms, their kids crowd out schools, and they are busy committing crimes. Most of these young people also don't have any skills. These are not Chinese/Russian PhDs in math/computer science/biology/chemistry or Ukrainian/Polish plumbers/electricians/carpenters.
-
2 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:
You might have bought my shares! I bought this in the fall, mostly of the VIC thesis which I liked. But I think lower natural gas prices put a bit of a cap on the upside here so I took the profits. The federal minimum price of nuclear really limits the downside, so I think it's probably fine here, but if nat gas stays low I think that will limit upside.
Uplisting and index add catalysts still to come though, so I certainly could have sold too early.
You were smarter than I was. I think the sale of the assets in Texas + the deal with Amazon are a very big deal.
-
1 hour ago, Eng12345 said:
Interesting what's the thesis here?
So, with the caveat that I should have bought at half the price, the thesis is: demand for power is going up, price for power is going up, this company will see growing profits, will buy back shares, and is at a huge discount to CEG and sells at a double digit free cash flow yield a year or two out.
-
There may be a tax nuance with the swap. If Fairfax takes delivery there might not be tax implications while if it cash settles it, then there will be a large taxable gain? This in turn will likely affect the decision making of the company of when to terminate the swap.
-
Bought Talen Energy - TLNE on Friday.
-
KSB in Germany.
-
6 hours ago, This2ShallPass said:
@Dinar did you find more details on this?
The one requirement US has is on FBAR. US citizens have to file every year (during tax time) if they have foreign financial assets above $10k. No implication on taxes unless your end of year balance is >$100k (and >$150k any time of the year). But I don't think this applies to securities held in US brokers.
From what my accountant told me before, FBAR does NOT apply to foreign stocks held in US brokerage accounts. My accountant is still working on the IRA requirements, once she is done, I will let you know (it is a large firm, she is checking with another department, and my guess is that everyone is trying to cover their behind...)
-
2 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:
Capitalists,
I am running a couple of non-taxable foundation accounts which need to give away 5% of assets pa.. 90% of the funds are invested the same ideas as our taxable accounts but I would like to put 10%-20% in dividend oriented investments. If you have any solid yield ideas, I would love to hear them. I am well aware that more money has been lost in the pursuit of yield than at the point of a gun so I may be slightly paranoid. Thank you!
Currently looking at PM, MMM, DEO, BNS.TO, ALX, CLPR, DEO, Kering, CK Asset, TESB.BR, NEN
I would avoid Kering (too much fashion risk and also luxury names, excluding Hermes, have taken a lot of price in the past several years) and also ALX - their retail condo will probably go to the lender at 731 Lexington and not clear what will happen to the office building - Bloomberg lease expires in 2029. Now at 160, it was a no-brainer, here at $213, different story.
-
1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said:
Capitalists,
I am running a couple of non-taxable foundation accounts which need to give away 5% of assets pa.. 90% of the funds are invested the same ideas as our taxable accounts but I would like to put 10%-20% in dividend oriented investments. If you have any solid yield ideas, I would love to hear them. I am well aware that more money has been lost in the pursuit of yield than at the point of a gun so I may be slightly paranoid. Thank you!
Aena, Philip Morris International, Tel-aviv stock exchange, Ambev, Transdigm, Monarch Cement. On the list, I do NOT own Aena and Ambev.
-
2 hours ago, Luca said:
Was your phd such a freebie and what do you consider as a "fair salary" for someone with a phd?
I paid nothing for my Phd which I received ten years ago. I also received a stipend every year. I could have tutored undergrads for $100+ per hour if I had the inclination.
The people I am talking about received PhDs in marketing, economics, management, accounting, finance and computer science. All making $170k-300K per annum, + insane benefits + incredible lifestyle in academia.
I don't know about Germany, in the US you do bachelor's in four years, although some people can do it in three. Masters is part of PhD program, that can be done in four to five years. Yes, some people take six or seven, but that is generally the exception.
Fair salary for a PhD in academia? I don't know it depends. You work 10 hours a week twelve weeks a year, and the rest of the time you do research, except once you get tenure, you don't even have to do that. There is well known research study/ies that show that research productivity collapses after people get tenure. Well, for 120 hours of work per year what should you get paid?
Keep in mind, tenure is like a bond. You get your salary, pension, healthcare (worth $40-50K per annum after-tax in the US), other benefits - like tuition payment for your kids at university. You can also "work" till you are 80.
@thepupil, I don't know about professors of engineering. I know that a friend is a professor of physics at City College of NY. He makes about $90K per annum, pays nothing for his health care benefits, pays nothing for his future pension benefits, and teaches about 20 hours a week, twelve weeks a year. Also gets a sabbatical every sixth or seventh year.
-
Tobacco stocks are unlikely to outperform. Altria and British American tobacco are seeing almost 10% decline in the US cigarette business, and are not really priced accordingly, particularly Altria.
-
17 minutes ago, thepupil said:
you must know more successful aspiring academics than i do.
to me it seems like an almost reward-less grind pursued out of passion / desire for prestige rather than $$$ or work/life balance.
I did a Phd, so I know a bunch of people in my class, the year or two before and the year or two after. A distant relative just got a job as a computer science professor at NYU.
-
3 hours ago, thepupil said:
I completely disagree. I regard the academic career path as brutal. It's low pay, unstable (until it becomes gloriously so for the minority who make tenure track), political, and just generally shitty.
To become one of those people getting paid an okay amount takes 7,10,15,20 years of PhD, adjunct, assistant, etc. I don't envy people in academia at all and do not regard it to be a grift. if anything, people chasing the dream of becoming a professor are the ones being grifted....The people I know who are trying to / have gotten there work harder for far less pay than people in corporate / tech / finance / medicine.
do you know anyone in their 20's / 30's that's tried/is trying to become a professor?
That's just not true. I know a bunch of people who at 22 went into graduate school, and at 27-28 were working as professors, with $170-$250K salaries, some with subsidized housing (2 bedroom for $2k per month in West Village of Manhattan where market price was $8k), 30K+ per year research budget that you could use for travel to conferences in Maui or Italy, and yes, teaching load of 6-10 hours per week, 12 weeks a year. Oh, and let's not forget university will pay college tuition of their kids if they go to that school, or 50% if they go to another university.
-
20 minutes ago, Luca said:
If you would have listened to the interview, he talks about exactly that at minute 50:00. The problem with today's left, wrong focus of the problem, china and milton friedman etc
He also didnt celebrate Marx, but he pointed things out that marx already talked about, which are a correct assesment of the current economic situation.
I don't listen to those who call capitalists parasites. I have seen that movie before, it is a call to mass murder.
-
6 hours ago, Luca said:
He is not a communist advocate, but you can't deny several observations Karl Marx did.
Being a professor is an important job in our societies, and he certainly provides a lot of value too, nothing about being a parasite.
Karl Marx was the ultimate parasite - lived on money that Engels gave him by exploiting his workers. Karl Marx denied the role of incentives and human nature. His taught incitement, his followers murdered more people than Hitler. It boggles the mind that Nazis are universally reviled and communists are celebrated by intellectuals.
-
14 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Yup...the biggest grift in America right now is the guys getting paid 6 figures with amazing benefits and complete job security to drink craft beers and teach/hit on young adults 4 hours a day, 3 days a week.
And just 12 weeks a year at a place like NYU, Yale, Columbia...
-
2 hours ago, Luca said:
Michael Hudson (born March 14, 1939) is an American economist, Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri–Kansas City.
Hudson notes that the existing economic theory, the Chicago School in particular, serves rentiers and financiers and has developed a special language designed to reinforce the impression that there is no alternative to the status quo. In a false theory, the parasitic encumbrances of a real economy, instead of being deducted in accounting, add up as an addition to the gross domestic product and are presented as productive. Hudson sees consumer protection, state support of infrastructure projects, and taxation of rentier sectors of the economy rather than workers, as a continuation of the line of classical economists today.
I have enjoyed this interview, Hudson is really coming into it from a different angle but makes many good points that especially hit home to how the chinese government sees the economy right now:
Financial capitalism vs industrial capitalism. Real economy vs empty factories in NY that are revamped as luxury apartments.
Especially his points regarding using other countries cheap labor force with preventing their development rings a bell.
I think he is worth reading and listening to.
EDIT: He was also sceptical about the mortgage fiasco pre 2008:
In an April 2006 article in Harper's, just before the Great Recession of 2007-08, Hudson predicted a crash of US housing prices.
Wait, where did I hear this before? Oh yes, in the USSR, reading Das Kapital! The only parasites that I can see is him and his fellow professors in academia
-
25 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
More FRPH and finally got a lead on Fanatics shares.
Greg, what are you referring to when you are talking about Fanatics? Thank you.
-
@Viking, I thought that the equity portfolio was USD 15bn, no?
-
27 minutes ago, Jaygo said:
In about 10 Days DOO.to or BRP will report earnings and id suspect another huge reduction in shares outstanding. The results are sure to be terrible as the covid bump is dead and dusted and they are experiencing slower than normal sales since dept financing is critical for these toys to be sold. Who has 20 k for a damn ATV laying around
They are on a pace of 3.5 million shares per year for a 76 million share outstanding company.
They were a major benefactor of covid then a major loser of supply chains troubles as they had a boom in sales and bust in supply of critical chips for their instrument panels. The last 4 years have been a real difficult time for them and guess what. They bought back over 25% of shares outstanding, entered the motorcycle market with the tesla of 2 wheels (see reviews) and released the most incredible offroad racing machine ever in the Can AM Maverick R SXS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_zY_QYKIYE
You wont find better capital allocation of a high tech R&D powerhouse than this. Id put them up with General Dynamics of the era that Buffett was a buyer. But and a big but is they are cyclical, they are Canadian and even worse they are Quebecois and nobody seems to give a shit so they trade at 6-10 times earnings. I think we are going to run into a cyclical low now and for the next 18 months ( PE could rise to 30 from TTM 7 PE ) and these guys are going gobble up millions of shares at a cyclical low and come out on the other side stronger and more profitable than ever. I wont be shocked to see the share count in the 50 million range in a few years.
Thank you very much for a very interesting, name, what do you think is the average over cycle EBITDA less maintenance cap ex for this business?
Thank you.
-
3 minutes ago, valueventures said:
Is Fairfax (FFH) classified as a PFIC for US-based investors? My current understanding is that just Fairfax India is. Thanks!
WIth the caveat that I am neither a tax attorney nor a tax accountant, my understanding that it is only Fairfax India that is a PFIC.
How is the Fed going to cut rates with inflation over 3%?
in General Discussion
Posted
why are you assuming 2% earnings growth? @RedLion, I think having a PhD in economics is more of a hindrance than help, common sense seems to be uncommon in academia (I got to half a dozen PhD seminars every year...)