Dinar
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Posts posted by Dinar
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3 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:
Sajeev, The 5 points of Genocide being committed:
1. Mass killing of Palestinians - innocent death toll is at 33,000 and counting
2. Bodily and mental harm - Over 76,000 wounded
3. forced displacement and food blockade
4. Destruction of the health care system
5. Preventing Palestinian births
If you compare hamaas to the rawanda death squads, how would you compare the IDF based on the above 5 points being committed against innocent ppl?
The question is not getting rid of hamas as that's what Israel media wants you to believe is the issue to justify the Genocide. The real question is how to make hamas irrelevant . Maybe, just maybe if you treat the Palestinians like humans and you give them their dignity outside of an 'open air prison' then maybe the reason for hamas to exist may not be required which in turn would make them irrelevant. To make a lasting deal, you need two sides to want to make a deal and Trump even admitted, Israel PM Netanyahu never wanted to make peace.
Since members of Hamas are included in that death toll, according to you they are clearly innocent. We get it. Hamas should be allowed to kill Israelis and Israelis are supposed to do nothing in response and cannot be allowed to defend themselves.
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31 minutes ago, Xerxes said:
Oh Jesus, here we go again. Another thread for people to discuss their non-markets points of view and show us how much they know
Do I really need to jump in here ? lol
I am about f@&ing tired to hear about Israeli and Palestinean and how their “TrUth” is more superior.
To think of it, maybe they deserve each other. They both only offer hate, only care about themselves and suck an outsize amount of oxygen, and they think that exactly “they” and no one else is special.
I want I hear about the Yzidies, the Armenian and Kurds. They don’t even have sugar daddies.
You are right, also Assyrians for that matter. Agree regarding Netanyahu and Ben Gvir.
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I am probably mistaken, however if all Iran does is fire dozens of missiles and drones, then that's the least that one could have expected.
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4 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:
Israel attacked a sovereign country's embassy which is an act of war, can you at least admit that much? Second, if you need to even ask what genocide/theft Israel has committing, I have nothing more to say as this is blind ignorance. Iran has not officially released any statement as such besides organizations that may or may not be affiliated with the government. Let's do a simple exercise, please perform back of the envelope math on what the population would be if Israel did not commit genocide since 1948. let's look at how many lives where lost. Its shocking when you do this exercise.
Israel did not attack an embassy, it attacked a building used by IRGC. Calling a military base a hospital does not make it so. Calling an IRGC base a consulate does not make it one. The war between Israel and Iran has been going on since 1982, if not earlier, when Iran started backing Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. In 1992, Iran and Hezbollah bombed Israel's embassy in Buenos Aires. So Iran is not the aggrieved party here.
Hmm, so Gaza was under Egyptian control until 1967, so Israel was committing genocide in Gaza since 1948? Israel left Gaza in 2005, was it committing genocide in Gaza in 2005, 2006, etc...? You have not explained how Israel is committing genocide now. If Israel was committing genocide, it would close all the aid points into Gaza. By the way, where was Gaza getting most of its drinking water in 2022 from? Actually Israel, actions of a country committing genocide?
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9 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:
Iran is exercising their right to defend themselves and Israel needs to be taught a lesson for the Genocidal acts they are committing against innocent individuals.
Exactly what genoicidal acts is Israel committing? How is Iran defending itself? Iran has publicly stated that the killed general was involved in planning the October 7th massacre in Israel. Iran has funded Hamas and Hezbollah for decades. Iran is not exactly Poland in 1939. You need to brush up on your definition of genocide. If Israel was committing genocide, there would be no population in Gaza, instead population of Gaza is up several fold in the last 50 years. Also, in typical urban warfare, the civilian to military loss is 10 to 1, in Gaza it is roughly 3:2, and that if we believe Hamas figures, which do not stand up to statistical analysis.
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@Cigarbutt, I agree re higher profit margins due to less competition. I do NOT own EQR and am I NOT suggesting that you or anybody else buy it.
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@Cigarbutt, I think that there may be three other issues at play. Companies have gotten better at price discrimination/yield management software, which allows them to squeeze more revenue at 100% margin at very low and perhaps zero volume loss (airlines, concert tickets are good examples.) Companies may be more aggressive at raising pricing - look at historical price increases for aggregates for instance, and look at the last couple of years and 2024.
IT investment has also probably allowed massive cost reductions. Company like EQR are pretty explicit about it, and I am sure that banks/airlines, etc... have also cut out plenty of costs.
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@Cod Liver Oil, he is not.
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I personally think that Ukraine should do the following:
a) Raise cash via asset sales, both companies and real estate. I would buy an apartment in the heart of Kiev tomorrow if the price was right and it was available for sale.
b) Raise cash via selling bonds to foreigners. There is a large Ukrainian diaspora that would buy bonds to support Ukraine, and I would buy it as well (most relatives/ancestors from Ukraine). Best case scenario - I get repaid, worst case scenario - I helped Ukraine in its hour of need and would get a tax write-off if the bond is defaulted on.
c) Use the raised cash to recruit mercenaries & buy arms, and then having credibility negotiate peace.
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1 hour ago, valueventures said:
Curious to hear your thesis on CRH. It's been on my watchlist, but I don't think I've seen it discussed in detail on CoBF. Thanks!
So I should have bought it a year ago, but I still think it is cheap, and I finally decided to do it given all the insider buying. The quick version is that you have a business selling at half of the valuation of MLM or VMC. It has tremendous tail winds and incredible pricing power. The company is selling for 15x 2025 EPS, which I think the company will easily exceed. VMC is forecasting double digit price increase in the aggregates business and the company will probably be able to do the same. All the construction and repair is great for aggregates and cement, which company also produces. At p/e of 15, nothing is priced in: no above inflation price increases, no volume growth, no accretive acquisitions.
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@Cigarbutt, I would do the following:
a) Look at the most profitable companies in say 1999 and what were their EBIT margins
b) Look at the most profitable companies in say 2023 and what were their EBIT margins?
the most profitable in 2023 were probably MSFT, Alphabet, Meta which are all essentially monopolies or close to it. Also, Tech spend as a % of GDP probably doubled if not tripled since 1999, and tech companies have insane margins when well run - CRM, Intuit, etc...
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1 hour ago, Cigarbutt said:
The conclusion that market cap growth has decoupled from GDP (and may continue to do so) may be correct but the two underlying assumptions that are mentioned appear to be incorrect.
1-When using GNP instead of GDP in the ratio, the international part which is described above does not materially change the picture.
2-When using NIPA profits (which is an imperfect measure bla bla bla ok but still...) which also includes private companies, the same trend appears.
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Now, as to why margins have decoupled is anybody's guess but i'd bet public deficits play a role.
The following is the same corporate profit line with, superimposed, the budget deficit. Look at what happened since 1999 when Mr. Buffett assumed that margins hovering around 6% would be the norm (absent fiscal largesse? which is sustainable?).
Margins may have permanently increased because the composition of the market has changed. Software companies such as MSFT & monopolies/oligopolies such as Meta, Google, and V/MA are a very % of market, and they have very fat margins.
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@Viking, I respectfully disagree. The returns quoted for ShawKei do not seem to be that great giving liquidity and risk involved. 12% annual return given risks and leverage since 2010 is not great, 3.5% since 2017 is incredibly bad.
BDT is also unclear. What has been the IRR on the capital committed vs alternatives (private equity, S&P, private credit, etc...). Any investment made in 2009 should have doubled the money in a three year period, maximum 4.
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49 minutes ago, blakehampton said:
GDP growth has averaged around 2% over the last 10-20 years and 3% preceding that. I think 2% is a good average for growth going forward. I recently listened to an interview with John Bogle in 2017 where he explained his valuation model using dividends. He used the S&P500's dividend yield and 5% growth going forward. Funnily enough, the dividend for the S&P is approximately its net earnings - capex, so it's almost the same as owner earnings. Anyway, I redid his recommended model for dividend growth and got nearly the same results as my model with earnings.
Sources:
- S&P500 Results - it's a spreadsheet btw
- John Bogle Interview
2% is real, so in nominal terms closer to 5%, no?
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16 minutes ago, blakehampton said:
I believe that the valuations for almost everything are simply absurd right now.
- The median home sale price is 6x the median household income.
- The S&P500 is set to return approximately 5-5.5% at current prices. This is assuming 2% earnings growth and that corporate taxes stay at 21%. A higher growth rate is certainly possible but so are higher corporate taxes, arguably more so. The point here is that you can get this same yield with cash, and this is without any of the added risk.
why are you assuming 2% earnings growth? @RedLion, I think having a PhD in economics is more of a hindrance than help, common sense seems to be uncommon in academia (I got to half a dozen PhD seminars every year...)
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14 minutes ago, Jaygo said:
I have a much easier time finding value here though. Wajax, FFH, DOO, Doman, Equitable all under 10P/E
The US equivalents are generally valued higher.
What do you think is a sustainable level of profits for Wajax and why? Thank you.
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55 minutes ago, gfp said:
I knew it was coming and Dinar did not make us wait for long. Take a trip out of New York City Dinar. There's a whole country full of hard working Latino immigrants out there literally building the country. It doesn't make sense to send them to NYC. That was a political stunt. Let them naturally flow to where they are needed and have family support systems.
The country does NOT need unskilled labor. Immigration depresses wages and raises housing costs. We have plenty of unskilled people on welfare who can do these jobs. There are hundreds of millions of unskilled people in Africa, Latin America, Arab world, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Afghanistan. You want all of them here? There are millions of Haitians who ruined their country, what will happen to the US if they come here?
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6 hours ago, changegonnacome said:
Don't agree with the view that 3-4% inflation as some kind of new normal is a nothing burger......if it's the new normal going forward you should probably get short the trillions of assets that are pricing in a return to sustainable low 2's inflation......if the Fed throws in the towel and just implicitly or explicitly says hey 3.x% is a pretty good inflation number if we can keep unemployment below 5%....you've got a tonne stuff out there which has to incorporate that inflation drag on the future returns demanded.
One thing I do agree with @Gregmal on.....is that Powell has somewhat shown his cards.......he was pretending to be Volker....but he's really Alan Greenspan....cause with relatively limited forward visibility on his actual 2% target being achieved......he started hitching up his skirt and talking about rate cuts....and so he's going to use his dual employment mandate as a reason, at any sign of trouble, to start cutting I think.......and he might get away with it...in some respects the dual mandate has codified the Fed put...the progress on inflation has been impressive without a weakening in economic fundamentals to achieve it.........I fundamentally misjudged productivity....both underlying innovation productivity and the secret productivity gains that came post COVID from illegal & legal immigration ramping up again which have been the hidden secret of the domestic deflationary wins we've had....that and China's economic woes exporting large disinflationary forces to the rest of the world but the USA most strongly helping on the import side. Not sure if its enough to get us to two.....but getting to mid-3's with this little economic should be something to be thankful for.
It's kind of upside down world.....turn on the TV.......and its the crisis at the southern border....Crisis? You mean the one that keeps sending industrious young people North who want to have families and are lining up to work on construction sites, clean drains, bus tables and generally work like three jobs in an economy/country thats sparsely populated, resource rich and fundamentally short labor while the rest of the world is facing demographic collapse & a kind of endemic laziness & lack of industriousness.....or maybe its Cold War 2.0 'crisis' with our enemy China?......the enemy that is exporting a tonne of goods disinflation to us now and accepting printed dollars in exchange for those very real goods they send....all from a sovereign fiscal authority that is printing 7% annual budget deficits in economic good times with a debt to gdp of 120%.....I mean lots of countries would love to a couple of crisis like that going on simultaneously.
What world do you live in? In NYC, these "industrious" young people are busy standing in line for free food, get free housing and healthcare, crowd out hospital emergency rooms, their kids crowd out schools, and they are busy committing crimes. Most of these young people also don't have any skills. These are not Chinese/Russian PhDs in math/computer science/biology/chemistry or Ukrainian/Polish plumbers/electricians/carpenters.
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2 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:
You might have bought my shares! I bought this in the fall, mostly of the VIC thesis which I liked. But I think lower natural gas prices put a bit of a cap on the upside here so I took the profits. The federal minimum price of nuclear really limits the downside, so I think it's probably fine here, but if nat gas stays low I think that will limit upside.
Uplisting and index add catalysts still to come though, so I certainly could have sold too early.
You were smarter than I was. I think the sale of the assets in Texas + the deal with Amazon are a very big deal.
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1 hour ago, Eng12345 said:
Interesting what's the thesis here?
So, with the caveat that I should have bought at half the price, the thesis is: demand for power is going up, price for power is going up, this company will see growing profits, will buy back shares, and is at a huge discount to CEG and sells at a double digit free cash flow yield a year or two out.
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There may be a tax nuance with the swap. If Fairfax takes delivery there might not be tax implications while if it cash settles it, then there will be a large taxable gain? This in turn will likely affect the decision making of the company of when to terminate the swap.
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Bought Talen Energy - TLNE on Friday.
Iran - Israel - Gaza Conflict
in General Discussion
Posted
Israel is not the occupier, Jews have lived in Israel, Gaza, West Bank (Judea and Samaria) for three thousand years continuosly. Arabs came in 1600 years later. Do you also believe that Armenians and Greeks have the right to rape and murder every Turk in Turkey since Turks murdered two million of them in the 1910s-1920s and kicked the rest out? If you live in North America, or Australia, do you believe that Indians/Aborigines have the right to murder you in cold blood? If not, why not?