Dinar

St James (STJ LN). Wealth management firm trading at 6x 2029 net income

@Saluki, which companies would benefit from a blue sweep? Infrastructure in my opinion - cement & aggregates and equipment rental, as well as apartment landlords. Why? If VP Harris is elected and can implement her agenda, the massive tax increases (even the childcare cap plan is a massive marginal tax increase on most working parents) will send the economy into a deep recession + high inflation (say 5-10%.) To get out of the recession, stimulus will be applied to build roads, bridges, housing, etc...

Airbus

My accountant told me yes two months ago.

Why don't you donate to Catholic schools that give a great education to inner-city kids for $6K per kid per annum?

Too bad abortion was illegal in the USSR in the 1950s...

@Red Lion. Yes, I am assuming that a) the revenue synergies and cost synergies promised during the take-over and increased over time are achieved b) company can improve operations in the existing business, before taking into account synergies (KCS had OR north of 80 if I am not mistaken). One example is building a second bridge at Laredo for instance. c) tail-winds from volume growth driven by: 1) return of manufacturing from the East to Mexico; 2) shift of truck volumes to rail (would happen faster under VP Harris) due to difficulty recruiting truck drivers and environmental pressures (rail is 3-4x more fuel efficient than trucks). d) tailwinds on the expense side from technology - more frequent drone inspections for instance e) Pricing power - you are a monopoly or duopoly. So raise price at inflation + 0.5% per annum, and that translates into EBIT growth = inflation + 1% per annum. One caveat to remember, replacement cap ex is probably a billion CAD higher per annum than depreciation so reported net income is overstated or exceeds free cash flow, however you want to call that. I think that regardless of who is in the White House, the business will do well. On the one hand, it should do better under Trump as he guts regulation and gets people to invest again and forces more on-shoring. On the other hand, Harris would probably put strong pressure on trucks for environmental reasons so that could be quite helpful. Don't beat yourself too much over CP, I think it has been a lousy investment over the past five years, unless I am mistaken.

No particular reason. Assuming the company delivers on its targets, it is an 8% free cash flow yield to the equity on say 2029 numbers. That's cheap for a business with this kind of pricing power and that should be able to grow volumes beyond 2029.

Yes. They have the best network in NA and the best management team.

Bought CP today and made it a 5% position.

I actually bought CP today.

I think a crucial question is what will happen to catastrophe bonds. If the losses on them are high, you may or may not see a lot of buyers pulling out of that market in January.

Thank you. I did read the link, but from my knowledge of PGR and the link, I did not see why PGR would fail. Yes, I think PGR has been trying to cut Florida exposure for a while.

Could you elaborate? You expect PGR to fail because of its high Tampa exposure? Do you know what PGR's Tampa exposure is? Thank you.

Part of the value in the land, so on the one hand, the rebuilding cost is lower. On the other hand, massive hurricane causes a massive increase in replacement cost due to instantaneous massive demand for labor and materials. So yes, for one house replacement cost may be x, but for a million it is NOT 1,000,000x but say 2,000,000x.

Bought Jan 2027 60 UAL calls yesterday

I have never seen a good one. They are all so bad as to be useless, in my opinion.

This is completely wrong. Here is why: a) It does not take into account private business interests b) It does not take into account real estate, including real estate held for investment c) It does not take into account pensions (and healthcare benefits in the US) which may be worth millions d) It is unable to peer into private partnerships or investment companies or mutual funds held directly by investors. This survey is not worth the paper it is written on and the authors should be fired for incompetence.

What also matters is the level of interest rates. I'd bet that if you graphed the spread between earnings yield vs TIPS or real yield, that spread would show that market is not expensive or even cheap relative to bonds.

There is one.

They also buy back roughly 1% of s/o per annum. Distributions have grown at 9% per annum over the past 15 years. They are very financially conservative

60% below replacement cost, 10% cap rate, 4%+ distribution yield that should grow at around 8-10% per annum.

Why do you think so? Their barge business and wind tower business are inflecting in profitability. I think that the barge business average over the cycle profits (EBIT) will be $120MM+ higher than what is being reported today. CEO bought a million worth of stock $82 and another director bought 6,000 shares at $87 a few weeks ago.

Parsad, you should do the work on Arcosa and New England Realty. Both are insanely cheap.

Who is this person? I would be happy to copy Sir Chris Hohn's moves in real time.