rogermunibond

@wabuffo that's great for explaining this. Have you posted somewhere onlline a comprehensive take on the Treasury workings from the viewpoint of MMT? Or is there someone you can recommend who's posted on this?

Posting this here as a resource. Back in February 2025, Macro Polo did a very good three-part piece on the future of autonomous driving technology, regulations, and roll out. Implications are interesting for 5G, cellular towers, and fiber infrastructure. Part 1 https://archivemacropolo.org/analysis/autonomous-driving-the-future-is-getting-closer-part-i/?rp=m Part 2 https://archivemacropolo.org/analysis/autonomous-driving-the-anatomy-of-autonomy-part-ii/?rp=e Part 3 https://archivemacropolo.org/analysis/autonomous-driving-bifurcated-markets-part-iii/?rp=e

Supplemental leverage ratio reform https://www.ft.com/content/20df1236-4370-4c7d-b2ed-09e95aa04f01

Moody's warning on private credit as systemic risk https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=2107637A-C535-4AFF-83BC-6CBA1AD1FAB9&app=download

I don't think the Mendelson family needs the liquidity and it would be bad for me as a shareholder, but Heico (HEI) is definitely a Berkshire company if they ever needed to sell.

@wabuffo is precisely on to the crux of the matter. US M2 money supply + Euro dollar market USD M2 equivalent + PBOC dollar supply + JPY dollar supply + any other bit players (SNB, BOI etc) would give us something approximating the total supply of US dollars in global circulation. Not sure if such a figure can be calcuated but global M2 from the four big currency areas is something like $100+T - and US dollars are likely at least half of that if not more. Despite the current administration, the ties that US dollars have with the RoW economies is only growing, not likely shrinking, even if trade shrinks.

So what about the $2.7 billion of sub debt that BH does guarantee? That's what I was wondering about. Precision Castparts, Lubrizol, etc.

Anyone have details on insurance subsidiary debt offerings and whether they are guaranteed by Berkshire Hathaway parent co? BH spells out explicitly that BHE and BNSF debt are not guaranteed by parent but that some insurance sub debt is guaranteed.

Credit spreads haven't really moved though.

Set pricing on filing https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/insdata-home-pricing.pdf

That looks like an NAIC filing

Japan - massive private credit bubble - government leverage up to allow private credit bubble to slowly deflate US - large and continuing govt debt buildup - private credit moderate levels and modestly below past levels (?) The US situation is more a lack of political will than anything else, so who knows how bond vigilantes respond.

The big beautiful bill in the House has big deficit spending, not much new revenue, not much in spending cuts.

3 billion basepairs in human DNA so it's not small differences - 2% difference is 120,000,000 basepairs that could be coded differently. So it's not difference in RNA or proteins between human and chimp, but the timing, quantity, expression of said genes.

If you're really concerned about the US dollar, open a Swiss CHF or Japanese yen bank or brokerage account and transfer xx% of your net worth. One could also open a forex account and trade currencies as many a Mrs. Yamamoto did in Japan.

Precision Castparts has come back a long way from 2020-2021. I would say that despite the writedown in goodwill for the long haul it should still be a great operating company for Berkshire.

Private equity’s best days are over, says Egyptian billionaire Nassef Sawiris https://www.ft.com/content/cb3eb78e-8412-4af3-a29e-2200f9816ae5 Private equity increasingly looking for liquidity to sell companies What are the chances in the next 5 years that Greg Abel and Warren by something big from a private equity sponsor?

China tariff levels suggested in WSJ article are still too high but right direction. A good tax cut package and Federal fiscal budget cuts plus big big de-regulation and away we go.

FRED is a great resource for this data. US non-financial corporate debt is $21.6T, which includes all US business SP and Russell 3000 and SME. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/z1/nonfinancial_debt/chart/

Long dated high grade corporate issuers could be deal if the US long bonds keep moving out.

@dwy000 yes, as a baseline. these are not serious people.

Under inflation scenarios, capex costs more and more each year and miners with very high maintenance capex needs soon see their margins eroded. Even with high commodity prices for whatever they extract.

+1 @dealraker