rogermunibond

Pretty good post on where things sit now among markets waiting for tomorrow. The risk of overconfidence and stagflation are baked into the markets (not sure). More nuance in tariffs spells relief rally?

Long FTZs (Foreign trade zones). https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/b1dd32d2-7b3a-5b77-99c9-7a521bcb5f54

Federal debt is 85% held by US entities (Fed, Treasury, SS Trust Fund, Corporations, Pensions, investors, etc. etc.). 15% is held by foreign entitites of which half is foreign investors.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-china-japan-agree-promote-regional-trade-trump-tariffs-loom-2025-03-30/ "South Korea, China and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, seeking to facilitate regional trade as the three Asian export powers brace from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. The countries' three trade ministers agreed to "closely cooperate for a comprehensive and high-level" talks on a South Korea-Japan-China free trade agreement deal to promote "regional and global trade", according to a statement released after the meeting." How does this help the US strategically?

US dollar reserve currency status isn't just from our national debt and sizeable equity markets. The terms of global trade are mostly conducted in dollars, trade finance same, hedging FX same, commodity hedging, simillarly global debt and financing is usually in dollars so debt derivatives - interest rates, etc. When a Japanese exporter wants to hedge Brazilian real exposure, they generally don't hedge JPY to BRL directly. They usually hedge through JPY to USD and BRL to USD, iirc.

A lot of US tech companies make use of Irish tax loopholes. These revenues get counted in Irish GDP iirc They book no US tax obligation from these sales.

UMich Consumer Sentiment Index shows unity among Dems, independent, and Repubs. All groups now expecting higher inflation in the next 5-10 years

Coreweave IPO downsized. $40 IPO price - latest looks like it will open trading at... $40 Data center capex is going to be cyclical just as many other things are.

@Xerxes open source military hardware

This rumor/news keeps getting brought up - TD Cowen says MSFT canceling https://archive.ph/RAxeI Joe Tsai says start of AI bubble in the US https://www.reuters.com/technology/alibaba-chairman-says-china-business-more-confident-since-xis-tech-summit-2025-03-25/

Dallas Fed Survey of oil and gas industry comments https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2025/2501#tab-comments https://x.com/MattZeitlin/status/1904963020637299008

Of all the compounder stocks that were super favored over the 2016-2024 time frame, what are the ones that have NOT sold off? I can think of four. SPGI, MCO, V, and MA

@Spekulatius on the idea that US agriculture exports go through Canadian ports to avoid the USTR shipping fee, couldn't Canada tariff these loads or restrict access to Canadian ports to put more pressure on the US? I don't see if as being a sure-thing win for Canadian ports and CP/CNI

Long read Substack on Peak TV and how Netflix has changed the industry (good and bad) https://www.readtrung.com/p/the-case-against-streaming-tv-shows

https://www.theverge.com/news/634955/waymo-washington-dc-robotaxi-launch-2026

USTR $1.5 million fee on Chinese ships entering US ports is going to hurt US farmers the most https://on.ft.com/4j7N6w1 Creating uncertainty on orders now, making US agricultural exports uncompetitive price wise, increasing imported fertilizer costs, does nothing to build US shipmaking capacity.

Some contra evidence on UBI https://www.nber.org/papers/w32784 https://www.nber.org/papers/w32711

Oops I guess tax cuts are on hold for “the people”

Gundlach on CNBC says risk of recession is 50-60% in the next few quarters. Good interview ongoing.

@Spekulatius just to be clear, by deficit, I mean the Federal budget deficit. Not trade.

@Spooky Fentanyl and immigration are the legal reasons - to use emergency powers - a ruse Manufacturing and trade deficit are economic reasons 51st State BS + Greenland are geopolitical strategic reasons - viz a viz US concerns with Arctic resource grab post 2050 with Russia already possessing much better land assets around the Arctic. The President and his advisors have turned this into an incomprehensible mish-mash of blurbs and miscommunication.

This graph stands out.