rogermunibond

Looks like PCP still has a division that does industrial gas turbines. https://www.pccenergy.com/markets/power-generation.html

Is there anything weird going on with the Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguards having such large Treasury MM funds? are they trying to move clients to diversify cash savings into non-Treasury insured vehicles like HYSAs? TIA - your explanations are brilliant!

@wabuffo what do you make of this reserve managment thing? keeping markets orderly? "Contained in today’s Fed release, the Federal Reserve announced approximately 40 billion per month of reserve‑management purchases of short‑term Treasury securities, starting in mid‑December, with the stated goal of maintaining an ample supply of reserves and supporting smooth money‑market functioning."

MANU is nowhere like Berkshire. Manchester United is a great global brand... And that's about it. Horrible at acquiring players, horrible at keeping player expenses in check, maxed out on non-game day revenue. I get a huge laugh whenever I read Ron Baron or some other investor talking about MANU as an investment. It's one saving grace is the greater fool who comes in and buys it for more than you did. So it does have billionaire acquisition premium value.

Davita is a direct result of his WR Grace knowledge. Grace used to have a renal dialysis business which they sold to Fresenius in 1996.

Wasn't most of Ted's outperformance from his intimate knowledge of WR Grace assets in their bankruptcy?

Yes, short term bill issuance strategy.

The current Treasury secretary, when not cosplaying as a soya farmer, has mostly stuck with the practice of the previous Treasury secretary with regard to Treasury issuance, which the current Treasury secretary was highly critical of, thus somewhat suppressing the long end.

Slide deck from Torsten Slok at Apollo. Are long rates the dog that hasn't barked in Sherlock Holmes or are they starting to warm up with some interesting New121025-Charts.pdfdivergences from the norm?

Go big or go home, YOLO - or AI gets commoditized, bubble goes bust, and what's leftover are all the data centers that got built on investors' tears. https://ftav.substack.com/p/what-if-openai-is-worth-more-dead?r=2gv2&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

Seems likely that in the next year Greg Abel will appoint another investment manager to work alongside Ted Weschler. Who would you like to see? Is it going to be someone young and relatively unknown or could Greg get Li Lu or another big name HF manager to come work for Berkshire.

This seems huge for health insurers.

Markets rally, bonds sell off. 3%+ GDP in 2026

Who thinks Trump's drug trafficking interdiction policy will work to significantly reduce the flow of drugs into the US? I have admit I'm of the mind that a harsh sentence (possibly death) for larger amounts of drugs, similar to Singapore or China, would be interesting to try in the US. Death penaly or lifetime jail for larger amounts of drugs within the US would probably be a sh*tshow to implement with all kinds of civil rights challenges.

Insurers like AIG, Great American, WR Berkley, and Chubb want to limit coverage on liability related to AI agents/chatbots or limiting coverage on "widespread" AI incidents. In discussions with insurance regulators and brokers. https://www.ft.com/content/abfe9741-f438-4ed6-a673-075ec177dc62

"Congress has the sole power to declare war." “It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.”

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/650740_Hudson_Bay_Research_-_Stock_Valuations_-_November_2025_2.pdf Companion piece to Roubini's on equity valuation in a bubbly time.

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/650739_Hudson_Bay_Research_-_Tech_Trumps_Tariffs_-_November_2025.pdf On this trajectory of higher potential growth, US exceptionalism strengthens rather than fades; equity valuations need not rest on bubble dynamics and should deliver solid returns despite episodic volatility, while some credit events are idiosyncratic rather than systemic; higher trend growth improves public- and external-debt sustainability even as a capex boom widens the current-account deficit; and the dollar’s reserve-currency role endures, with near-term weakness likely to give way to medium-term support as productivity and potential growth accelerate.

Snippet from Bernstein on ASIC vs GPU winners and losers. TAM is growing.

Fiscal dominance and financial repression.

@WayWardCloud the legacy pharma are development, production, sales and marketing powerhouses. small early stage companies that do drug discovery don't have the muscle with sales and marketing to push new drugs to clinicians and CMS and other nation's health systems. Most of the legacy pharma have drastically cut down their early stage research pipelines from where they were in the 2000s iirc. they go shopping for promising startups and early stage companies. I think they still earn a pretty sizeable return for their distribution prowess. in fact if MAHA has it's way and DTC drug advertising is killed off, the legacy pharmas will have even better returns and bigger moats.

@beerbaron so stuff like optical networking Lumentum and Innolight?

https://asm.org/articles/2025/september/new-word-screwworm-rise-fall-resurgence A good article on the rise, fall, and rise again of NWS. Reasons for resurgence in the Darien Gap of Panama related to reduced sterile fly release due to Covid and possibly illegal importation of cattle into Central America carrying NWS. Whatever the case may be, coordinated international cooperation across US, Mexico, and Central America is needed to eradicate it again.