rogermunibond

http://www.fpafunds.com/news_07192011_precautionary_measures.pdf

Question for the movie fans/investors on this thread: Would movie theater antitrust (US vs Paramount Pictures) reversal make things better vis a vis lower ticket prices or lower concession prices? Vertical integration may actually make theaters more profitable and allow more variable ticket pricing. Say the new X-men movie playing at the Sony owned theater gets an exclusive mark up - $25 per seat.

https://www.sedi.ca/sedi/SVTWelcome?locale=en_ca&pageName=splashPage or http://canadianinsider.com/

I just saw him pounding a huge box of junior mints at Transformers 3 in 3D. I don't believe it. He would have snuck in his own box of See's peanut brittle. :)

It may be possible that Charlie hasn't stepped foot into movie theater since the original premiere of The Sound of Music.

KW has been exceptionally busy of late. Additional equity will probably be put to work without delay. $56.4M multifamily financing http://www.rttnews.com/Content/QuickFacts.aspx?Id=1653465 BoI Real Estate Investment Mgmt biz http://www.rttnews.com/Content/QuickFacts.aspx?Id=1636467 $145M multifamily asset acquired http://www.rttnews.com/Content/QuickFacts.aspx?Id=1636093

It's driving with your head in the clouds. ;D

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/896842/000119312511171987/ds1.htm

Price is referencing the Monterey Shale find that OXY and Venoco (VQ) have made in Kern County. TRC already receives royalties for oil/gas production on their land. Do you know if they own the mineral rights to the deeper Monterey Shale or whether they have licensed all mineral rights on their land. That would help determine if the option even exists. OXY and VQ's Kern land is northwest of TRC land and is centered in Elk Hills field and areas north and west of that.

Also BLERF Black Earth Farming. I like the large commodity traders/processors. Bunge, ADM, Noble, Wilmar, and Louis Dreyfus. For commodities like cocoa, there are also specialty traders like B Callebaut. It's an interesting murky world.

Soil is renewable. We seem to think that soil is just dirt, but in reality fertile topsoil is amalgam of dirt plus nutrients plus organisms. With the proper husbanding, fertile soil can be created. Terra preta which is soil mixed with charcoal is an example of how pre-Columbian Amazonians created fertile soil where there previously was none. Back in 2008 Charles C. Mann was writing about the potentially enormous problem of soil compaction, erosion, & degradation. But he said it was a MEGO problem. (MEGO = my eyes glaze over).

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806636/000095012311053856/c17921e40v24b2.htm

China was so undercapitalized as a country that when they first started making good investments in the 1970s, it was a target rich environment. It was easy to make substantial improvements in GDP through capital investment. The problem is diminishing returns. Now it takes more capital to get an additional % increase in GDP than ever before. Meaning much of it is misallocated to nonproductive, i.e. speculative endeavors. There are some Chinese economists who have argued that misallocated capital investment was China's way of keeping inflation in check. That is excess capacity was deflationary. Lastly, leverage is not at the household level. It is with SME businesses, local city/provincial/county govts and nongovermental off-balance sheet development companies. Development companies and govts depend on the speculation continuing to pay off the loans that support real estate development.

Wesco website says the June 24th meeting is not the Munger Q&A. http://www.wescofinancial.com/page7.html "There will not be a question and answer session with Charles T. Munger at the special meeting."

I don't think history is a very good guide sadly. Reason being that past bouts of deflation have been for different reasons than what we see today. 1930s deflation was largely demand driven and brought about by currencies tied to gold, trade imbalances between the US and Europe, and lastly significant deleveraging. In the 1870s-1880s there was another persistent bout of deflation, but that deflation was brought about by excess supply (large agriculture surpluses in the US and Argentina). And by better transportation (railroad and canals) that made costs for shipping commodities cheaper. Flash forward to now, we have some of the economic conditions of the 1930s, but we are a net importer and are no longer tied to gold. Still we are experiencing significant deleveraging. However, on the commodity side, BRIC monetary easing and loose credit has caused overall demand for commodities to rise and prices have responded. If BRIC central banks continue to tighten and fight inflation, perhaps the commodity demand will abate. But over the longer term I think the Grantham argument of increased demand through rising incomes means more shortages and surpluses. For these reasons, I don't think that traditional defenses against deflation are all that good. Perhaps the best move would be to hold BRIC currencies or local currency denominated short term debt like in PLMDX.

Credit Card Tips Cost Steak 'N Shake Servers Tips Will Be Trimmed To Cover Processing Fee POSTED: 6:05 pm EDT May 10, 2011 INDIANAPOLIS -- Some Steak 'n Shake servers are upset the Indiana-based chain is now trimming tips to cover credit card costs. Starting Tuesday, waiters and waitresses who get tipped on a credit card will have to use a portion to cover the cost of processing the plastic -- 2.5 percent per transaction, 6News' Rafael Sanchez reported. A Steak 'n Shake server who spoke to 6News on the condition of anonymity for fear of losing her job called the new fee excessive. "That's the cost of doing business. That's an overhead. The server has no say in whether we accept credit cards," she said. "Next time, they'll want us to pitch in for rent, electrical bill. Where does it end?" Employees were asked to sign a document agreeing to the new rule. Those who object can be reassigned or will be asked to quit, the server told 6News. Officials with the Indiana Restaurant Association said state and federal law allow restaurants to pass on credit card fees to their employees. "No employer can pass on 100 percent of tips put on a credit card. They don't receive these funds. They are withheld by the credit card company," said organization CEO and President John Livengood. Livengood said some restaurants have established service charges to achieve the same goal, although he said the practice is not as common in Indianapolis as it is in other parts of the country. "They'll add a service charge instead of a gratuity. That way, that money becomes the restaurants' money and they can then use it to pay wages and cover costs of the business," Livengood said. Florida-based Darden Restaurants, which operates Red Lobster, LongHorn Steakhouse and Olive Garden, said it does not pass on credit card processing fees to its servers. Several industries claim the credit card processing fees are cutting into their profits. Restaurant and gas station owners are among those supporting a new federal law that will cap the credit card processing fee at 2 percent. The law is set to go into effect in July. In turn, the banking industry said any caps will force it to jack up prices and cut services. Steak 'n Shake did not return calls or emails for comment on the new rule.

BB - A lot of that junk bond issuance is refinancing.

Funny thing is I heard those same complaints when I visited back in 2002. Jokes about mistranslation of Richmond...

From the Washington Post The US and China have reached a deal on currency, report Howard Schneider and Mary Beth Sheridan: "The United States and China on Tuesday pledged to deepen their cooperation on economic and military matters, setting aside a year of tension over issues such as arms sales to Taiwan and the value of China’s currency with what officials referred to as a 'milestone' agreement... Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan released what they described as a blueprint for managing the sometimes contentious economic relations between the two countries...The agreement included action on some long-standing issues -- including initial moves by [glow=red,2,300]China toward opening its financial sector by allowing U.S. and other foreign firms to sell auto insurance[/glow], sell mutual funds and other investments, and underwrite corporate bonds."

Twacow - Polymerase isn't unique to or discovered only in hot springs. There is nothing exceptional about DNA polymerase - it exists in all animals and plants. However Taq polymerase used in PCR is heat-stable enzyme and so useful in the heat cycling required to generate multiple copies of a DNA sequence. Taq polymerase is the particular version of the enzyme discovered in a hot spring. Harry - Isn't is a stretch to say that internal/geologic conditions on Titan replicate current conditions on Earth? If the abiotic formation of hydrocarbons is going on at scale wouldn't we see more even distribution of hydrocarbons in strata. For example 5-17 million year old Miocene shales contains lots of hydrocarbons but carbonate or shale layers above and below do not. Why, if hydrocarbons are bubbling up from mantle layers are they not more evenly spread across rock formations that would be likely to hold/trap hydrocarbons. I would venture that methane clathrates are probably a sign of some kind of abiotic generation. But harvesting or mining those is a whole nother ball of wax. Lastly, I'm fairly amenable to the idea that the origin of hydrocarbons on earth is abiotic. After all, not all carbon chains necessarily have to have been produced by algae, bacteria, and the like.

Under the bottom of the window for comments is an "Additional Options" feature. You can post your transcript as an attached document. Saves a lot of emailing effort.

I find Thomas Gold's abiotic hydrocarbon hypothesis interesting but it's never yielded sizeable discoveries. IIRC, the Soviets did some drilling near Lake Baikal with the idea that the deep trench there might expose some abiotic hydrocarbons. No go. For what it's worth Bill Miller talked up abiotic hydrocarbons prior to 2008. It has a sublime fascination for natural contrarians, but I'm afraid it's like the philosopher's stone and will never be found.

Exactly, the zero population growth crowd wanted birth control as part of development. Turns out development is its own birth control.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc Redeems 10% Preferred Shares By Charlotte Ford - Apr 18, 2011 2:50 AM ET The following redemption, via the company's call option, is effective today: Issuer: The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) Dividend: 10 percent Maturity: Perpetual Redemption Amount: 50,000,000 Shares Redemption Price: $110 per Share Amount Remaining: Fully Retired Security ID: EP0359141 Announcement Date: March 18, 2011

I'm very impressed with what Chad has done at FTP, but my concern is that his CoC seems entirely within commodity industries (uranium, gold, paper/forestry), being from western Canada I suppose that is not surprising. You hunt what's in your backyard first. Suppose the commodity world goes from being undersupplied with excess demand to the reverse, oversupplied with lack of demand. What then? Would Chad be able to change gears and do what Buffett or Cumming/Steinberg do?