backtothebeach

I think I was just looking for a synthetic long close to zero cost and with a low breakeven. I like your alternatives, especially the second one that introduces a calendar element and possibly a lot more flexibility in year two.

EBAY synthetic long: -short Jan'26 45 put +long Jan'26 42.50 call for a credit of $0.20 per share. A cash efficient way to go long. You miss out on the 2.5% dividend though.

2.98 x 0.31 = 0.9238 Minus 7.6% in total over two years. Math is a bitch...

vs. Berkshire it seems.

Today Charlie would have celebrated his 100th birthday. I don’t know if he is celebrating somewhere else, but I’m sure many people are thinking of him and celebrating him in their minds today.

74% in USD. Last year when I was looking at my port value, every other day I was thinking “this is insane”. Holding a large percentage of FFH and buying more on dips was the biggest driver, but I also sold tons of OTM and ITM puts on ATVI, OXY, CLF, STLC, CVE, OBE, BRKB and others, did some diagonal option spreads and some arb trades. All in all being imprudently leveraged with over 200% long if you add up long and notionally long through short puts. That said, “you only need to win the game once“, so after 10 years of investing/trading like a madman with a 19.9% CAGR (was it worth it?), I am looking forward to being more passive. Biggest challenge is going to be to get over my market addiction. I don’t use social media, so clicking back-and-forth between watchlists on IB and checking COBF for new posts has been my dopamine source for quite a while. I may start a new thread about this.

Regarding book keeping: I calculate monthly returns looking at the month-end values of my portfolio. The YTD or annual return is the monthly return compounded. If I take out money I try to do it at the beginning or end of the month and subtract it from the starting value or add it back to the ending value of that month. It would be the opposite for inflows. Example: Let's say I start with 110k, and take out 10k on one of the first days of the month, I just pretend I started the month with 100k. Or, with a lot of inflows or outflows you can net them out and adjust both the starting and ending balance by half the value. Nothing too fancy, everything else would be too much work for negligible extra precision.

Congrats! Very impressive, considering this was without employing margin/leverage (I think). Thank you for maintaining this forum!

A happy and healthy Christmas and New Year to all!

The ratio dropped back to the low 1520s on Friday. Now, if I could only time my arb trades as well as these posts.

Poor Ron

HODLing Berkshire, through stock, ITM calls, short OTM puts and short ITM puts, for 10+ years.

A to B ratio spiked again to ~1535 today.

Mixing interesting data with inaccuracies, grandstanding and making outlandish predictions for effect. Somehow reminds me of Munger’s “If you mix raisins with turds, you still have turds.”

Israeli satire:

80,000 attendees, I’m sure they are all having a jolly time sipping champagne in the desert. What a farce. https://news.yahoo.com/80-000-attendees-cop28-largest-101058582.html

Sad. In the Acquired podcast he was looking forward to a big party for his 100. RIP

VITAX is 40% Apple and Microsoft.

Wikipedia (yes, that Sam Altman currently in the news): Worldcoin Altman co-founded Tools For Humanity in 2019,[25] a company building a global iris-based biometric system using cryptocurrency, called Worldcoin. Worldcoin aims to provide a reliable way to authenticate humans online,[26] to counter bots and fake virtual identities facilitated by artificial intelligence.[27] Using a distribution mechanism for its cryptocurrency similar to UBI, Worldcoin attempts to incentivize users[28] to join its network by getting their iris scanned using Worldcoin's orb-shaped iris scanner.[29] ... In August 2023, Kenya, one of the first countries where Worldcoin was launched, suspended its enrollment in the country, citing security, privacy and financial concerns.[15][16] Worldcoin was previously ordered to stop collecting personal data by the Kenyan Office of the Data Protection Commissioner, but did not comply.[17] --- Digital currency, iris scans, AI ... what could possibly go wrong?

Real estate is priced in US dollars in Argentina, and often paid cash. I suppose technically mortgages in pesos exist, but the interest rate is 100%+, reflecting 100%+ inflation and likely currency devaluation by more than a half over a year. It is a toss up whether receiving the 100%+ interest or paying it will win over inflation and devaluation. Not to say there is no way to take advantage of inflation, devaluation and different dollar exchange rates, which is a whole different mess. A mess that contributed to yesterday's election outcome.

Interview with Milei, now elected president.

This video is pretty accurate, although they exaggerated a bit by giving Tucker the smallest peso bills in circulation at the moment. Each of the 100 peso bills he received was worth $33 dollars only 15 years ago. Now 100 pesos is worth $0.10.

Lol @ 0:20 mark:

Screw your freedom.mp4

Curious, what issues are you referring to? I was too young at the time, but remember seeing the "wanted" posters with headshots of the RAF members at the post office.