backtothebeach

Possible timing system for the sell decision by Jim (mungofitch): https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=579967243

Sold VOO, BEN, BABA and META. Bought UAA and KHC.

Looks like it will hit Central America. Unless it goes to the furthest east that is projected (white arrow), then it would be in play for the US.

Already bounced back...something is going on with FIH.U.

Maybe look for a precedent of previous index adds and how they behaved intraday on and around the add date.

I'd say nuke the sh!t out of it, but there is some good posts on the first few pages. Maybe start a new one: Second Trump presidency winners and losers - no cripto

$130,000 for 34 felonies, man that's cheap. Only $3,824 per felony! Should have just used cash! Just kidding guys, I appreciate both sides here, those that think he's a fraud and a criminal, and those that don't give a shit if he manages to fix immigration, wars etc. (BIG if!!)

DXYZ is at it again, up 50% today, at times trading above $40. NAV on 6/30 was a whopping $5.15, shares outstanding unchanged. They seem to have trouble with their shareholder meeting, postponing it several times. Last SEC filing: "I hope this email finds you well. I wanted to inform you that unfortunately, we were unable to meet the quorum requirements for our annual meeting of shareholders scheduled for October 28, 2024. As a result, we have made the decision to reschedule the meeting to November 14, 2024, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time."

Interesting that DG and DLTR also suffered today.

Same here. I have used the Midprice algorithm on SSD and MELI, for example, and it gets better and faster fills than limit orders. Unfortunately Midprice algo is not available for FRFHF or FFH.

That's what I meant, got the two mixed up.

Who knew old slow Berkshire was a Trump trade stock... up almost 5%. No tax on unrealized capital gains, lower capital gains tax may play a role. Others from my watchlists: Bitcoin/IBIT all time high CLF up 20% (bet on tariffs I suppose. They were down 10% the day before on earnings) DXYZ up 30+% ENPH down 17% VTS up 5% all time high German auto makers VOW3, MBG down another 4-6%

Yes, there is one precedent for that, in Q3, 2020 I think, when the media didn’t notice the payable for T bills as well, some of them corrected it, some didn’t.

Yeah, too easy!

Operating earnings not so great because of insurance and "other", whatever that includes. No buybacks during or after the end of the quarter. What the hell is he planning with all that cash?!

2023 Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 Book Value BH SE in Mio. 525,330 601,697 629,069 A share equ Q end 1,445,546 1,436,696 1,437,608 BV per A 363,413 418,806 437,580 BV per B 242.28 279.20 291.72 current B share price 351.7 428.36 452.14 Mcap 762,598 923,135 975,000 BV multiple 1.45 1.53 1.55 Cash cash & equiv. 25,573 36,884 32,287 treasury bills 126,401 234,618 288,031 cash railroad 5,267 5,440 4,894 payable for treasuries -14,868 Total 157,241 276,942 310,344 Cash % of Market Cap 20.6% 30.0% 31.8% Operating Earnings Insurance underwriting 2,422 2,263 750 Insurance investment 2,470 3,320 3,664 BNSF 1,221 1,227 1,383 BHE 498 655 1629 Pilot 183 171 198 MSR 3,341 3,209 3,144 non-controlled businesses 226 220 199 other 400 533 -877 Operating Earnings 10,761 11,598 10,090

5 year chart

While I don't know the truth, this is shamefully inept reporting. Of course the stashes of cash and gold, if they exist, are not in a cupboard on floor -2 of the hospital, they would be 30 meters below that in a tunnel system that is accessed from hidden entrances outside and maybe quite far away from the hospital. One a side note, I met a BBC employee last year during my travels. The woke capture and the amount of wasteful spending he told me about - like Twitter before Musk. So yes, in my book the BBC is a biased news source at best, not reliable. Your mileage may vary.

Part 2 below. He's one of the original "Market Wizards", no? I hadn't heard him speak. Very well spoken, but I'm surprised he didn't mention spending. Musk and the DOGE Department of Government Efficiency to the rescue, ha! As far as election markets, I think he is correct that there is a conservative bias on Polymarket and others. Current odds:

Thanks. Yes, maybe repost in the other thread.

C’mon guys, this thread is about the prediction markets, not about Trump interviews or memes. The last two posts are off topic, I suggest they be deleted by their authors.

Thanks for posting the Matt Levine stuff. Once you take all the complexities into account, in addition to liquidity and fees, there likely is no real arbitrage here. Nuances matter. For example on predictit.org it says "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes the 47th President of the United States." Presumably this includes Harris becoming president before January 20th if Biden resigns, or something happens to him. On Polymarket it says: "The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated." So it is not the same definition.

At https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 you can currently buy a Kamala Harris win at 40%, whereas on https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7419/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-the-47th-US-president you can buy a "NO" at 51%. Seems like a safe 8-9% return, as she will either be president or not, even if something unexpected happens. Anyone playing this? **No discussion of politics please!**

Like that Henry Ford guy that hardly anyone remembers ... lol