Xerxes

Daniel Yergin never disappoints. What I like about this book is that it reads fast. Most of the stuff/content I know but these days I read for the author's perspective rather than content. I am at page 250 ish or so. Will tag & bag this one before Christmas

I have not read. But i think it deserve printing and reading back to back. I am planning to do so myself. Looking fast, there are some passage in relation to the post occupation plans, had it come to pass. https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

But the fact that unlike Credit Suisse and others they had the right risk management tool to spot first and insulate themselves from the Archegos disaster that must say something. I think that Goldman as an investment bank that is in the business of taking risk/doing-trades on behalf of clients (sometimes exposing its own balance sheet) is probably more focused on risk than JP Morgan that enjoys the stability of its large domestic deposits. As a former commodity trader Lloyd Blakfein was laser focused on risk. He is gone but that focus-on-risk-DNA is probably still there. Cliche, i know, but he liked to say he spends 80% of his time at that 2% tail risk. I really enjoyed this interview when it was aired couple of years ago. Watch Life After Goldman: Front Row With Lloyd Blankfein - Bloomberg

I don't think the nice (but distracted) CNN lady here understands what the good Colonel is explaining about the dummy warheads on the cruise missiles.

I didn't know Imperial War Museam made documentary. Here is a good one misuse of T-72 tanks by the Russians.

There is a Japanese family hotel business that has been business for many centuries. Definitly an exception. Houshi Ryokan: Longevity Becomes a Tradition - Tharawat Magazine (tharawat-magazine.com) Hotel business ... how dull ! Their mistake was to stay in the hotel business, whereas they should have sent all their dividends and invested in the U.S. stock market (or whatever it was like back in the day) as the young nation took shape. They should have been shorting Venetian companies and commerce, when the Porguese discovered the Cape of Good Hope in the fifteenth centuery. It was a no-brainer. They should have been doing a long-short trade in 1812-14 as Napleon approched Moscow, short-Bonaparte, long-UK bonds, betting that the emperor would be "reverting back to the mean". The Japanese could have own the world !

I would argue that Cathie Wood’ product is filling a role and that demand will continue. After all, there are folks that see the Ark ETF as a product to inject a bit of “innovation” in their otherwise dull portfolio. Those folks determine through % allocation how much spice are they getting. I see it as just a product that will continue to have demand as long as she stick with the narrative. If she changes the narrative into “oh we want to have a more balance ETF with more companies with cash flows” that is when that Ark product will lose demand. Folks don’t want diluted spice.

I am down 7% year to date (through Dec 1, 2022). Not counting crypto. I think crypto is about less than 2.5% of the stock portfolio. So whatever. I have not bought and/or sold in 2022. I was one of the fools buying the dip on my exisiting Amazon and Alphabet positions in Q1 !!! but also in Q3 (see below) However, overall net-net, the portfolio was kept afloat by Exxon, Fairfax (thanks all the commentators here), Berkshire, Starbucks, Couche-Tard, Brookfield, which offset foolish behaviour. Starbucks was a new position inititated in May-June, while the rest all multi-year existing long-term positions. I do need to check excatly what contributed by close of Dec 30. I think Berkshire has been flat all year. Planting More Seeds The timely privitazation of Atlas in Sept, provided me with fresh unencumbred US dollars (as a Canadian, a market downturn means expensive USD) which I was able to use to buy the post-September dip on Alphabet, Walt Disney, Berkshire, again Walt Disney, Amazon, all in Q3 and Q4. I would suspect the ROI on these seeds will become apparent in 2024-25, if not in 2023.

Heading to Portugal most likely in December. Trying to get to Asia or Africa in 2023 ... in some ways, it is blessing to be so close to Europe (5-6 hr flight), but also a curse as its "gravitional pull" keeps pulling me away from going too much to Asia. It took a pandamic to force me to go visit Vancouver in my own country, where people speak the same language as me, use the same currency as I do, have the same flag as I do, and where your cellphone data-plan works just fine as it is.

Well done KFS Not sure how you manage that becoming a 66% size. But that is great ! I keep trying to increase the % allocation but it keep at around 10% of overall portfolio (not counting FIH). Thanks for keep those nuclear reactors humming away. You probably have an interesting and thoughtfull view on the nuclear reactor(s) in Ukraine that turned into a hostage like situation. Perhaps this needs to go to a different thread

come on Greg !! a bit of humour on Friday. Iwasn’t suggesting BX is having run on the Bank. Even the Ark has inflows (supposedly)

@Dinar @Spekulatius B21 stealth bomber roll out live on YouTube https://youtu.be/WjfsANcgJAg

Cheers !

"Any man who must say, "I am the King", is no true king.'" --- In the eternal words of Tywin Lannister "An investment firm that says it has permenant capital, yet needs to cap redemption, has no true permenant capital" --- Xerxes Blackstone -1 Brookfield -1 Berkshire +1 Fairfax +1

Yeah. Thanks guys i did go back through Amazon. They refunded me and ask me to dispose the article since it was fraud. No need for return. As a concerned Digital Citizen i did put pressure on them to remove that seller, for copyright violation. They said it will take a few days. I haven’t check today they finally did it. I did return the note-pad anyways just to experience the return process. Extremely smooth. this was just a heads-up for book-buyers among you.

I listened to a podcast couple of weeks ago where the author was talking about a book called “Price of Time” that he wrote. And it sounded very interesting so I said let’s buy it. I saw the “paperback” version on Amazon for $12 so went for it. I get the copy and Et Voila, it is a notebook with blank pages !!! WTF. I go back on Amazon and realize that someone has cleverly created a “paperback” that got linked to the “hard copy”. but it is a phony book with the same cover page as the hard copy. They even say that it is notebook in the description so that in technical terms they are not deviating from the intent.

I watched Dooms (along with the first SW movie and Empire Strikes Back) in piecemeal format. Saw various scenes in different order on TV in the 90s. Overtime I collected most of the pieces and got a final picture on it. Yet when I saw Doom in one shot again later on in late 90s I was surprised to see that the first scene which is actually in Shanghai, I had never seen before. Same for SW, when I saw the whole movie in one shot, I realized that there was a scene before Tatoinne scene where Tentative IV is captured by Darth Vader ship. And I had not seen it. Last Crusade. I saw it like a normal human being in one shot. Raiders of Lost Arc. Saw it first on dvd in the 2000. I was not impressed.

If you live long enough, you can take another go at Indiana Jones

Either no recession or a deep recession. Given that consensus is “shallow recession”

hilarious deleted scene. so the old Maester was acting after all.

Thanks. I didn’t realize they actually expanded the “total return swap” program

“We have purchased total return swaps with respect to 1,407,864 subordinate voting shares of Fairfax with a total market value at the time of those agreements of $484.9 million ($344.45 (Cdn$443.93) per share)”. —- Feb. 2021 At $574 USD per share today’ print, that “bet-on-myself” play is worth $808.5 million USD. A nice 66% return over two years.

Very awkward

Hell in Bakhmut