Xerxes

Ignore Dalio anybody who write a book called “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” is worth ignoring. I cannot stand people putting frameworks, and/or oversimplify geopolitical events into good/bad guys. there is no “nutshelling” when discussing these matters. For what it is worth

Enjoy ! just the way it is written reads like a novel. And the author brings the story full circle to the Romanov, Ming and Manchu dynasties, as heirs to the empire.

@Dinar What Arabs did or did not centuries ago is irrelevant to the situation to Gaza. If I were to follow your logic then there should be no white men left alive in South Africa. Because that is not their land. How do you square that ? I hope you don’t think Arab are also responsible for Spanish Inquisition. Hamas is a terrorist organization that feeds on chaos. But whether a Gazaian person who has been bottled up for decades in Gaza has some sympathy for Gaza, as the entity that gives the middle finger, while the rest of Arab world have “moved on” does not mean that person is a Hamas terrorist. No different than an Israeli, who has had it with Arabs and Muslims, who may feel a great sense of excitement and joy seeing the Arabs humiliated. One thing is clear, the attack was so outrageous and so over-the-top that it was meant to be like throwing a grenade in a middle of a party, aimed at getting a significant reaction. The war will not expand. Hezbollah might fire a few firecrackers in sympathy, and the American will blow their horn from their aircraft carrier in sympathy. Every player in the Middle East, whether they are state or non-state actors have a lot of levers. But each of those levers are always major “step change”. Hamas has used its one-time lever, knowing that it would be a “step change” and that it can do that only once. Hizbollah is not going to use any levers (I don’t think) because Lebanon and its base of power is not threaten.

Once you gave the “the last supper” speech of ‘less business going forward so consolidate’, right after the fall of Soviet Union. That base dissipated. That industrial base will take decades to be rebuilt. One of the reason why Bank of America and other analysts are harping on Boeing, is due to the fact that it may lose its engineering force through attrition. Sure from a short-term shareholder point of view, what Boeing is doing is great. Get that juice into FCF (for returns) and less Capex and capital investment. See what happened to McDonnell Douglas. Given the level of concentration in the defence industry, we are at the level that major programs are not just awarded based on cost, performance, specs etc but also knowing that if X wins and Y loses, the loser will just move away and will not be there to bid and keep competition for the next round.

Unsaid is the multiplier-effect that his work had with the Giving Pledge.

Agreed. It is wonderful book. I read it about 15 years ago. Loved the part where Blackbird pilots would go flying all the way to North Pole and when gone back home for supper, they couldn’t answer their wives on “how was their day”. I am guessing pilots didn’t stay on site. Also I would recommend this book. About the father of U.S. nuclear submarine fleet. Covers “Electric Boat”, an GD subsidiary, and a less glamorous era for General Dynamics. Kelly Johnson and Rickover were the Elon Musks of that era

there two podcast episodes I like to share, they provide good assessment IMHO. The first one with the Israeli journalist is very on point. https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/defense-aerospace-report/id1228868129?i=1000630692175 https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000630732302

Simple Israeli domestic politics dictates that Israel needs to launch a full ground invasion of Gaza. Bibi’ own political survival may depend on that forcefulness given some extremists in his own government with some very extreme points of views. In fact, as someone who campaigned so hard on security issue, he is got to go Gaza or he is got to go (fired) The civilians in Gaza will be trapped as always. The Israeli civilian captured or otherwise will be trapped as always. And Hamas wins even if it looses, for it accomplished two things (1) MBS was going to leave them behind, no more (2) they shattered the myth behind IDF. It took decades to build that, and it took 24 hours to lose it. PS: in one of the podcast I posted below, the commentator says this is not 9/11 nor Pearl Habour, it is rather Tet 1968 all over again

Ukraine own mistakes. Over obsession with Bakhmut to “bleed them white”. Koffman said it at one point: it is not about kill ratios, rather the quality of those ratio and replacement cycle.

neither RTX nor LHX has become the cannibals of their own shares as much as Lockheed, Northrop and General Dynamics have become in the last 10 years. RTX and LHX have been going through M&A which what the other three went through largely from 1995 to the 2010s. Once their portfolio of the trio was set, they became buyback machines. I expect the same from RTX and LHX.

was driving home for +2 hours back from Thanksgiving. Logged back in and then it was gone

for some reason I cannot find Israel War thread. Maybe it got moved ? where do I write my mumbo-jumbo ?

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/focused-compounding/id1352422076?i=1000622643584

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html

perhaps your view of quants will also help me on my BBD i had shares lots of which were bought in 2020 and some before. With massive rally from the bottom surely BBD is now more palatable for PMs

https://www.apple.com/tv-pr/news/2023/10/apples-highly-anticipated-action-packed-limited-series-masters-of-the-air-from-steven-spielberg-tom-hanks-and-gary-goetzman-to-premiere-globally-friday-january-26-2024/ This is really cool and great news. Never got into “The Pacific” but appreciated “Band of Brothers”.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Available_for_sale

AFS is the more honest treatment as it marks everything to the market and let the BV adjust, on a quarterly basis. HTM is the treatment that sort of assumes the “bond market” is closed. So we cannot trade until maturity nor can we “see” the market price, therefore cannot “mark”. That is what got the banks in trouble. This treatment sees ownership of fixed-income securities as like contracts between the two sides, … holding out till then the end. I think the nuance that Viking is speaking of is not so much AFS vs HTM. Rather if the realized/unrealized gain/losses changes pass through the P/L before hitting BV or not. I am uncertain (don’t remember) if with AFS both options are available. Aside AFS and HTM there was also Held for Trading which definitely would hit P/L.

All this negative comments on Brett Horn just tells me that you are not a forward looking investor as he is. (Sarcasm)

@Luca unfortunately I don’t have access

On Ukraine-Russia war related topics, it is either Ukraine single handily destroying some many Russian assets or Russia amazingly competently doing it to the Ukrainians. (As per WION) both cannot be true at the same time

Thanks. For FFH in the chart the dividend seems to be included I am guessing. How does the mechanics of the chart works ? does it assume that the $10 cash dividend is re-invested back into FFH when it was cashed out. Pretty much assuming a synthetic total capital return made entirely of repurchases (ignoring tax) or is the dividend is not assumed to be re-invested ?

Check this short TV show out on Prime. My god what a story. Really well made. It came out in 2020 yet somehow I didn’t even aware of its existence. The buyers are Italians. The sellers are Mexicans and the middlemen are Americans.

Fascinating read