Xerxes

Controversial indeed. This is from 2021. Rarely do these things make it across the pond into the mainstream Western media or The Simpsons for that matter. Almost as if we are being spoon fed in terms what we need to know. https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/amp/2021/08/04/controversy-as-ukraine-mulls-giving-hero-status-to-alleged-war-criminals “ Seventy-eight Ukrainian lawmakers from all sides of the parliament have proposed to give the title ‘Hero of Ukraine’ to controversial figures such as Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych.” “The Ukrainian parliament will now consider the proposal, which is expected to meet fierce reactions from Poland and Israel if adopted. Bandera was named ‘Hero of Ukraine’ back in 2010 by outgoing president Viktor Yushchenko, which sparked protests from Poland and Israel before Bandera was stripped of the status again in 2011.” From Wiki: ”In 2008, the massacres which were committed by the Ukrainian nationalists against the Poles in Volhynia and Galicia were described by Poland's Institute of National Remembrance as bearing the distinct characteristics of a genocide,[14][15] and on 22 July 2016, the Parliament of Poland passed a resolution recognizing the massacres as genocide.[16][17] This classification is disputed by Ukraine and some non-Polish historians.” Anyways, I believe we also committed some genocide against the locals as we built our country here in North America. And have been slow to recognize it from what I gather. I ll happily admit that I am not exactly up-to-date on this stuff.

Me and you both would have done the same as individuals. That is normal. That said I cannot comment too much on the back history of polish, Jewish massacres in Ukraine simply because I am not from there, nor studied the country in any particular depth and am missing a fair amount of subtleties. The country seem to be a very diverse federation with different extremes. My interest has always been global affairs and I will happily admit that I am pretty ignorant on individual country histories.

The middle ground is hard to see, because US like a central banker that is distorting the markets, is distorting the longevity of that conflict via unprecedented military aid. I.e. fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian or the last Russian. Whichever comes first, we don’t care. Of course corruption in Russia’ military and years of mismanagement helped as well. If I am Zelensky, and have goodwill of the world, and a population eager to fight and flow of military aids as someone else expenses, do you think I am looking for a settlement ? Biden says “no decision about Ukraine without Ukraine”. That is a cute statement. But Biden was making decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine all the way to the eve of the war. What changed is the carte Blanche that he has given that is making it difficult for him to retract. No one dares arguing with Zelensky, or he is going to raise the “G” word and shame you. He even pushed back on TotalEnergies who was scheduled to receive dividends from a now-closed JV saying that it ought to go to Ukraine. Make no mistake folks. Everything has a consequence. It is good what we have done so far in terms of aid etc but if you are not thinking/talking through backchannels, you OUGHT to be. I understand the fairy tale aspect of this conflict, but this is no fuc&&ing cartoon nor it is Star Wars, where “rebels overthrow the evil empire” nor its the “300 Spartans fighting the armies of Xerxes”. At some point one way or another Putin will be gone, but most likely old age, and from his power-base the next leader will emerge and he may be younger, more energetic and full of ideas and be a hardcore nationalist, bent on revenge ! Consider this : for decades following WW2 all that White House could see was a giant sea of Red stretching across the Eurasian mass lands with its very centre in the Kremlin. The White House was so deep into that Global Red menace thinking that they even feared an invasion by Chinese “volunteers” if they (US) were to invade North Vietnam (recall most of fighting was in the south, north Vietnam was bombed via B-52s). Why ? Because that is what happened in Korea, when they got closed to the Yalu river. Never mind that there was a very deep cultural chasm that existed between Chinese and Vietnamese that would have made that scenario extremely low probability. Never mind that Vietnam was NOT part of China’ red sphere (as North Korea was) but was part of Soviet’ red sphere and even at that was pretty autonomous. And the Chinese counterweight to Red Vietnam was actually Pol Pot and Cambodia. And the two Reds even fought a war in late 70s and early 80s. So It never occurred to the White House, that sea of Red had different shades of Red until decades later with Kissinger and Nixon. And they successfully exploited those shades. Bottom line. Don’t get emotional about these things. There is always a bigger picture.

Thank you. I am going to keep an eye on this thing. I did add multiple times to my obliterated Bombardier position at 95 cents and below (pre-split). Those were 4-5 baggers for me since 2020, but gains somewhat diluted as I own an initial position (not too large) at a higher cost. I guess we all go with what stock/company we know best, for these kinds of trades. I still hold all of my Bombardier shares (so perhaps not a trade for me)

Still four months away but super excited to read what the Chairman has to say about his energy bet in this annual letter in Feb 2023. A fifth pillar next to the other four: insurance, BHE, rail, Apple ?

WooooOpps i forgot to attach the disclaimer to my previous post: ……. but it does not justify the war that Kremlin is waging. Must not forget the disclaimer in this thread.

Thanks @Dinar Goes to show how much we don’t know on this side of the pond. And even perhaps in Europe as well. I don’t know about all other posters in this thread but I for one am unaware of these subtleties. If it doesn’t make it to BBC, CNN or The Simpson, it is not real. (sarcasm)

I recall you had a juicy trade on Overstock in 2020, one of your best ones. I don’t know if you can share this but were you also trading it prior to 2020. Also I think Fairfax was also an owner (they sold way too soon), would you know anything on top of your head, in terms why they were interested in the name. Was it a classic founder-turn around situation or more like pennies on the dollar value trade. thanks

@Spekulatius Spek, firstly I don’t think anyone is saying that. In fact I don’t even think anyone has said they should get zero support. Of course people having conversation in this thread to which degree there ought to be support (and consequences of). And those very same conversation are happening in the White House or other forums in the past six months. Doesn’t mean you can go around label people genocidle. secondly, you (and I don’t mean you personally, so pls take no offence) cannot choose when it is convenient for you to give damn about victims. And when put on your “airplane mode” on, and look the other way, because it is an inconvenience and you cannot be bothered. There is nothing cool about wars, genocides, that people should chose one set of circumstances over others. thirdly, unfortunately every genocide looks like a line or a paragraph in history books 100 years later. You are right in your comment about a genocide 150 years is no excuse to stand idly by. And those poor aboriginal people were probably saying/thinking the same thing even as they got hacked down (anyways) by the white colonizer. Everything is relative. We may have the a good excuse to help install Pinochet as a dictator in Chile, because Cold War, fighting communism etc, but surely the Chilean didn’t see it like that at the time, and said “WTF”. The Indians that got massacred by the Portuguese as the latter were building their commercial network in the Indian Ocean probably said: “WTF i thought we were pass this. This the fifteenth century for Christ sake !!!”. In 1991-92, after the Gulf War, Bush Senior got the Iraqis and the Kurds to rise up against Saddam, from north and south, only to let Saddam massacre them, so that the centre of power is preserved. What about that genocide and the enablers behind it ? Was there a forum thread on that ? Or there geopolitics trumped everything else. Everyone relative point of view of “oh we don’t do that anymore. We are in a civilized age”, is built on the skulls and bones of the last genocide. Once we are done with genocide, we declare the beginning of a new civilized age, built out historical monument and accuse another party that is trying to crash our party. Lastly, I think tribalism has now taken over this thread. I say this about the fall of Kherson. Happy that it happened on Nov 11.

@no_free_lunch you are sounding more and more like a Western teenager overexcited by war. Or should I say you are being “selective” in terms of what wars of aggression excites you to the point of hysteria and which ones doesn’t. Hint: It excites you if the victim are white people, and you couldn’t care less otherwise. Nope you don’t say it, but it is all subtle in between the words. And you are not the only one. I must be the only one on this board that actually lived in a country at war, where the aggressor was backed by all Western major powers, where cities were burned, people were raped, families were destroyed, infrastructure was destroyed, where WMD was used …. For 8 years ! So forgive me, if I am not as naive and stupid as you are. Given these last comments from you, me and you will have nothing else to discuss. I don’t have time for the likes of you. But just to close on this last point, understand however that political powwow and reality on the ground are not the same. George Bush declared mission accomplished in 2003, only to order a major Surge in 2008. Hence my comment of me not caring about Kremlin says. You want your enemy to remain stupid. An enemy that can make a decision to withdraw (as oppose to hold out) is one that acting more rationally and one that is less stupid. And yes independently of whatever Kremlin says about annexation and Kherson forever etc.

This is amazing https://ca.yahoo.com/news/mystery-flag-honour-dieppe-raids-015703175.html

@no_free_lunch yes, clear headed as oppose to turning that force into Chuikov 62nd Army and telling them to hold the ground. That is being clear headed. Don’t confuse Putin’s political powwow with realities on the ground. but I guess believe whatever you want @shhughes1116 yes, in contrast to the rout in Kharkiv (obviously). There is a difference between the speed at which that northern front unravelled and the slow grind in the south.

I would add that the retreat of the seasoned forces in proper order (as opposed to being routed) actually implies some proper strategic thinking by the Kremlin high command. They are being clear headed. Never a good thing, when the enemy is being clear headed. So it is good for the people of Kherson that they are (allegedly) gone, but bode less well for the war effort, messa think.

Understood, I just thought perhaps you meant different bridge. Thanks.

There is no relation between the explosion Kerch bridge and Russian withdrawal from Kherson. Perhaps you meant the bridges on the Dnipro river being taken out via HIMARS, cutting off supply lines. That said, I had found the news flow very confusing around the region of Kherson. Talks of mined dam upstream, potential Russian trap as it was reported by Kiev, definitely Ukrainian did not have the field day they day around the Kharkiv region back in August.

I was also intrigued by @Dazel statement. This is how I played it in my head: recession hits, yields crash, T-bill gain value At some point the yield curve moves from flat to an steepening one in the middle of recession, as it sees the economy recovery, with the back end yield shooting up, the 10-year treasury becomes a sought to asset.

Was that a bet on Fairfax that he made, or a beta bet on central bank intervention producing results and using FFH as a vehicle to capture that since he knows it best and controls it. To me that was a beta bet for him and those of us who added in 2020, but to bet in 2022-23 on Fairfax that would be a true alpha bet on Fairfax’s unique attributes.

See this new thread by Spek There is a bit about the “Grivalia story”. Perhaps Video becomes available at a certain point. https://greekvalueinvestingcentre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/1.George-Chryssikos-The_Grivalia_Story-1.pdf Keynote Speaker Presenter: George Chryssikos, Vice Chairman, Non-Executive Director of the BoD, Eurobank Group, Athens, Greece Topic: “The Grivalia Story” View PowerPoint Presentation Video Not Available Yet

Pershing Square is trading at 30% or so discount to NAV, is it a “legacy trust” issue going back to the go-go days of Valeant now like 5-6 years ago.

We got Bloomstran covering Berkshire every quarter and we got Viking covering Fairfax every quarter !! Thanks to both of them

And the likely equity-accounting of Occidental (I think)

Just to capture the sequence of events since Dec 2021 till close of Q3, 2022. The big dollar increase in terms of investment in bonds/bills (funded from actual cash/cash equivalent) actually happened in Q1. In Q2 and Q3, I am thinking that the duration moved from 1.2 to 1.6, as treasury bonds/bills are getting recycled into longer dated ones. But the big thing was in Q1 in terms of fresh dry powder deployment.

I saw a note that says Apple is now valued more than Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet combined !! Wow. $1.1 trillion for Google $938 billion for Amazon $238 billion for Meta The last of the “Generals”, Apple, holding the line at $2.3 trillion. Today, would you rather pay $2.3 trillion to buy the whole of Apple or would you rather own the whole of the trio of Amazon, Google and Meta at these prices.

I am not used to see FFH doing a jump post earning. Uncharted territories for me. Using TwoCitiesCapital rule of thumb, it usually takes a few days post earning for FFH to react.

what you mean is “a nation state would launch a full scale assault on another state, POPULATED BY WHITE PEOPLE” Anybody (even folks who don’t follow this stuff) can do a quick Google search. The list does not include “proxy” and “hybrid like war”