Xerxes

the man nailed it !

Those tensions have been there forever, but now more highlighted by Western media. on a different note, this could be very interesting. From the producer of Crown.

I guess we will have more answer in the coming days, but we should not assume that FFH is the one that is leading this initiative. Maybe it is really Sokol, who is after all the champion and mastermind of the Atlas model. The vertical integration with ONE is interesting as outlined by Viking. If FFH is not adding to their stake, than the value for them is really private ownership vs. Public. And whatever advantage ONE brings in. And they are just rolling over with Sokol. but also wouldn’t Atlas lose its neutrality like ARM would have had it gone with its now cancelled merger with NVidia.

From Barron’s, on the monthly data within Q2, for lazy folks like me:

I agree, And hopefully FFH stock price dipping because of the purchase (if it happens) provides additional opportunities.

I am not comparing them just saying with the level of concentration they had why waste Atlas resources for a buyback, which most likely me as a minority would not have tendered into the buybacks anyways. Also it is not like Atlas had a Stelco like cash position vs its size. A takeover makes sense (given their control) and also allows them to re-jig their position sizing. We don’t know if the consortium members are pro-rataing their position size or doing something differently. A buyback would have equally increased their respective positions … but to what end. They already have control. I realize I am not explaining well.

For what is worth there a lot of resources and references in the 50X website. need to click on each of the episodes https://www.50xpodcast.com/episodes/will-thorndike-the-power-of-long-holding-periods/

No, I mean FFH won’t tender for Stelco. but at a certain point (not immediately), once Stelco vacuumed up what they could through the tender off, there would be privatization bid from a consortium including the CEO, his private equity and Fairfax.

Stelco is slightly up above its bid issue of $35. Trading now at $36.81. is that the market connecting Atlas-FFH-Stelco !!

Part of the sting maybe that there is no control premium either, since they already have control ! As a minority, an Atlas buyback would have been preferable, but the big shareholders already have control so the natural next step is buy the whole thing. and I agree with @bearprowler6that samething will happen with Stelco. But Stelco was one step behind Atlas in term relative concentration of major shareholders. So first the many small and big tender offers and then the remaining major shareholders will privatized it.

Funding secured at $420 USD

Damn Buffett is buying the dip ! “Ocean Network Express Holdings, Ltd. is a Japanese container transportation and shipping company jointly owned by the Japanese shipping Lines Nippon Yusen Kaisha, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and K Line. Wiki“

just the fact that Dara, a Barry Diller protege, and 10-year veteran of Expedia is in charge that is a +ve. they are even talking about capital return back in Q1 investor day.

Received my +900 page copy of Peter the Great. The objective would be to be wiser 900 pages later.

Absolutely inverse is also truth. You put the maximum allowed ($80k or whatever that is). You make a bad investment that reduces the $80k to say $5K. you sell at a loss and withdraw the $5k from TFSA. by doing so you have “reduce” your TFSA capacity down to only $5K. Permanent damage to TFSA.

Agreed looks like no one asked about Stelco

I like how Prem answers the Q&A he disarms the analyst by first saying “that was a good question” and than he answers but doesn’t really.

my wild guess would be that FFH won’t tender its shares.

that wouldn’t be Fair & Friendly, now would it ?

If FFH sells the whole lot at $35 for about holding period of 4 years, that comes to ~14% compounded growth rate. S&P500 approximately yields a CAGR of ~9% over the same period. That is one measure of success. But if he is going to hold, than he needs to be in for the long haul, to see it on the other side. Resolute style ! But not quite

Offer expires Aug 31, so likely that Prem will be quizzed on this at the cc in early august. it is a very large SIB for Stelco. (Or any company for that matter). Whoever is sniffing around for Stelco as a strategic buyer is being put on notice. : “if you don’t buy, I buy myself”

improvise is what the German did in 1940 by going through the Ardenne forest. round 2. I maybe wrong, but earlier in 1939, Polish defenders, some of them were charging Germans with old school cavalry. PS: there we go. Thank god for Wiki https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge_at_Krojanty

I have read so many world war books (40+ no jokes) that I cannot recall if I read this one. But if I recall (and if I have indeed read it) the book gives an impression of an Europe slowly sleepwalking into a world war in the last glorious sunny days of August and not knowing what was about to happen. On the Schiefflan Plan, it needed two elements. A very strong General Staff , which the Germans had, and a strong leader, which they did not, for alas Moltke the Younger was not his great uncle. I don’t recall details on the crown prince, but I would say that they were backed by very able general staff. Even on the eastern front, which was under the titular leadership of Hindenburg, a military man, it was Lundendorff that lead the armies, and even then it was really Colonel Hoffman the glue.

At this point, the battle lines has been drawn, blood has been spilled, brothers have killed brothers, so unlikely that negotiation would lead anywhere. Historical inertia is doing most of the work, and things need to get worse and mood needs to get darker, before there is tangible interest from either side. And that won’t be before 2023 winter. But not talking also doesn’t lead anywhere. I will also add that “negotiation will not lead anywhere” narrative (which is definitely true now) wasn’t the case right at the beginning of the conflict. But there was too much emotional investment by the West to let that happen. We needed to humiliate Russia. Now lets see things from the other side (Kremlin). Let forgot about NATO mishaps, promises etx. All water under the bridge. knowing everything we know now, do you really feel that Kremlin would allow some strategic pause for Western countries to fill Ukraine with all the military h/w they can and have another go at it (Ala Punic Wars). The answer is a clear no. They rather have a perpetual conflict (with different level of intensity) that gives them free reign, in this perpetual conflict Ukraine (backed by western countries, sometimes wavering sometimes not) will be pitted against Russia’ long game and its reserves. I know I know I know. We overestimate Russia. But just because they botched the short game don’t underestimate their capacity to absorb pain, and inflict similar pain on Ukraine, which may not be able to absorb. all this to say it is real shit show.

Retreat has become a rout. With Newmont dropping 12% in one day ! I guess I am next with Barrick