Xerxes

That is actually very well said. That said, for clarity, my "inevitable" comment was not about the "outcome". The outcome of the conflict will be a titanic test of wills between the two giant forces. And a great leader can more than compensate other shortcomings. Agreed with that. My "inevitable" comment was specifically about the "collision" and the "onset of the conflict" that compounds those historical pressure points building over the long term. That future and the outcome of the war is yet to be written ... and there is an empy blank page of all the things that could happen. Anything is possible..... ---------------------- Unrelated to this thought, on Churchill, i have a comment/observation that I ll write later today, as i have to leave the house.

War started in 2014. There we agree. The outcome of the conflict is not inevitable. There we agree as that future is yet to be written. BUT the collision (step 2 and step 3) was inevitable. It happens to be centred around Putin and we in the west we all like a central figure for our narrative. but it would have happened eventually in other forms. More or less violent. Putin or no Putin. think of it this way, if it took +2 decades past 1945 for wine-drinking, peace-loving Western European nations and governments to finally stop their wars of imperial preservation and bow out and become “museum” nations (step 4), do you really think that the Kremlin, the heir to the Soviet Union, a superpower, and the Romanov before it, and the Golden Horde of Subotai and Batu Khan before them, would just chose to become a “museum” nation attached with gas stations !! ———- World War 2 WAS inevitable. As that part 2 had to happen to finish off what it essentially was a German challenge to the Anglo/French supremacy. What was NOT inevitable was the way it happened, with the the rise of Hitler and all that baggage. Hitler happened because of the fertile ground created for Nazisim post-Versailles. But Hitler or not there would have been that final contest. We just got the very worse version of it, as a reaction to seeds planted in Versailles. Hitler just rode the tailwind of what was inevitable and added his own demonic touch. We may have some control over the severity of conflicts, but we do not have any say on the massive general current of history. what needed to happen and would have happened.

very good article. It is one of those things where closer you are to the border, the more prescient you ll look to those afar, after the fact. Putin is the person we most refer to because his position. My view is that this was always bound to happen. Putin or not. But our Western need to associate narrative to a central figure is holding us. You can build a narrative around the persona of Saddam or Osama, but in Russia’ case it is very different. (Same with Iran) The transition from Empire to nationhood can take many forms. And it usually comes in three or four steps in my view: 1- disintegration as the centrifugal force holding the empire gives away. 2- the fight to establish/cut a “nation” out of the wreckage of the empire by the former masters. 3- DNA and the Imperial dream still there. 4-became a “museum” nation Let’s take some examples. The Ottoman and Russian empires. In Turkish case, the Young Turks, the Attaturk, worked hard, broke many eggs, fought and died but they secured the border of the modern nation of Turkey, even as the empire collapsed around them. In Russia’s case, there was no strong central figure to fight for Russian interest post-1989. And the post-1991 border became to be defined by USSR internal borders. So step (2) never got done in case of Russia. In short the disintegration was sudden, so the “inevitable” got frozen. step (3) is largely where Turkey is now. Decades later (a century really) it wants to become the paramount influencer in the Muslim world leveraging its imperial past. In Iran case, the disintegration of empire was very gradual. In fact over two centuries. The peak was the reign of Nader Shah, whose armies conquer vast swaths of territory lost to the Afghan, Ottomans and also went as far as Delhi. Iran’ Peacock Throne in fact was taken from India. Though the original is largely lost I believe. Hundred year after Nader Shah, as the British pushed their interest from the south and India, as the Russia pushed from North and Turks from the west. The empire just shrunk overtime and became the small nation that we know today. like how the passage of water curves into a stone over time. so in Iran case, I think they also in step (3) let take another example since I am in Portugal. The Portuguese dictator Salazar worked hard to preserve its vast colonial empire post 1945. The Portuguese fought wars of imperial preservation and still held Goa and other lands in India by the 1960s. Today Portugal is in stage (4). A “museum” nation. where UK is as well. European nations did not really have to do stage (2) as their colonies were geographically in distinct location. same with the French as well. Though they dragged US into Vietnam but it was only decades after 1945 that the French bowed out of their imperial past.

The current rulers in Tehran would never admit this, but Qassem Suleimani’ Quds Revolutionary Guards was walking in the footsteps of Khusrow, Shahpur, and other Shahanshahs of the past. The Sassanid fought the Romans in the plains of Syria. Their descendants, the Safavids fought the Ottomans in Syria and Mesopotamia. The enemy in the West always changed after few hundreds years, but Persian were always there.

the Ukrainian top general said it best: their action on Bakhmut is about “fixing” the Ukrainian position (capturing or not capturing not really that tangible to the war effort) if Ukrainian are forces fixed at Bakhmut then they cannot re-deploy those forces on their own terms, where they should be going. —— you want to see grizzly, check out the story of the Wagnor convict who deserted and was captured by Ukraine. He was interview by NY Times. His interview was “accidentally” published. (Whatever that means) He was returned by Ukraine to Russia in a prisoner swap. The Russian mercenary outfit had his head taped to the a piece of concrete and made him confess on video, as they swung a sledgehammer into his skull. I didn’t see that part.

Completely agree. Your best and brightest (who can afford to have a future aboard) are leaving. Samething with brains leaving Iran for the past 30 years. Drip by drip. I am always amazed how Iran can still punch above its weight, (not economically but geopolitical influence) with all the sanctions, all restrictions all the helps that it peers are getting.

Barron’s Top Ten idea for 2023 had Toll Brother. In their podcast, they mentioned that the patriarch passed away (or is of a very old age), and it could be a good fit for BRK as a full purchase.

The Russian border were kept precisely open such that troublemakers, anti war folks, anti special military operations folks all leave. I think Kiev is trying its hand at propaganda, this time not so well. I think Russia does not need more manpower (beyond the annual round up) but what it needs are munitions, artillery shells etc.

Agreed @Viking well earned and well done !!

Things are never bad as they look in the worse of times (interest rate headwind) and never as good as they look in the best of times (interest rate tailwind). On BX, at some point in IDK late 2023, the DE will/hope (?) bottom out, and so will the share price. While “harvest” and realizing gains is on pause, seeds are to be planted by BX counter cyclically. Until then the collapse in the multiple is warranted, until they can demonstrate to the market that the asset-light business is an “all weather” business. Given that there is no post-BX-IPO historical data on this business as light asset business operating in normalized rate environment. Lastly while the business certainly had a tailwind in a zero rate world, as institutional capital flowed in, and while the IPO was in 2009. it does not mean that John Grey and Steve Schawrzman were born yesterday (I.e the day before zero rate kicked in 08-09). They know a thing or two.

there you go. Both of these episodes https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591512926 https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591012314

War on the Rocks had another amazing episode this past Wednesday. No mumbo-jumbo.

for what it is worth, I think Chevron was a temporary liquid “plug” for Buffett, as events (Ukraine war/energy security) overtook him, so he went at it fast to have a desired oil & gas exposure at portfolio level. But once he is able to get his desired % ownership of Occidental, chevron will be trimmed.

Greetings from Lisbon Viking. I am going to enjoy ready your thread in the coming days. Just need to find a nice coffee shop !! Happy holidays. You Rock !

UK, Don’t be shy. The so-called military experts get plenty wrong ALL the time. It is the military historians that get plenty right, as the latter is a backward-looking fact-based profession while the former is forward-looking profession, drawing from past biases and framework of the last war, while heavily ignoring the law of randomness. If military expert were right all the time, all wars launched should be concluded swiftly as it was overseen by experts. And all the wars were the outcome was deemed unfavourable would not be launched. When politicians do not overwrite military leaders. it is like the whole market efficiency discussion.

the letters are great. But the time allocation to it is odd vs the rest of its portfolio. I don’t have any direct investment with Mr Bloomstrans, so perhaps none of my business , but my selfish side would want him to write about his other positions as well. I recall few years ago he briefly wrote about Starbucks, Walt Disney, Costco . That was nice. More if that.

All correct except the Italian example. Italy might be geographically located where the centre of Roman institutions were based, but I would hardly call them “heir to the Roman republic”. Italy as a unified kingdom created in the 19th century can definitely draw legacy and heritage from the many Italian kingdoms and republics (Genoa, Venice, twin kingdom of Sicily and Naples, Turin etc) but not the empire of Rome. Just as Iraq cannot draw heritage from its Babylonian past. To me, the heir to the Roman Empire, if any, was the Ottoman Empire. Of course you had Moscow as the “third Rome”, The Habsburgs, Napoleonic empire and that of Charles V all seeking “Imperial” legitimacy as heir to Rome. Any of those above is far closer to Rome than the Italians or other post-476 AD Germanic kingdoms. I will definitely get the Italians angry with my post.

From CNBC “China to scrap quarantine for international travelers in an essential end of zero-Covid” this must be either a massive inflationary tailwind with the opening up of the economy… or a massive deflationary tailwind … if their Covid numbers explodes.

There is also a Bloomstran interview from Dec 2022. Page 32 and onward Graham Doddsville Fall 2022 Issue 46_0.pdf (columbia.edu)

Complete a 2022 milestone of watching Dance with Wolves. The 3 hour version. Came to realize there is also a 4 hour version ! Unrelated, the SAS Rogues show on Prime is interesting. Starts of in the deserts of North Africa, with the Desert Fox's laying seige to the town of Tobruk.

Finally completed the 2022 objective of reading the Berkshire portion (page 75 and up) of this years report. Page 106-107 were the highlights for me, when he talks about capital surplus vs. its peers. The reinsurance operation at Berkshire, National Indemnity (including retroactive reinsurance and periodic payment annuity) and General Reinsurance, holds and requires most of the insurance capital. Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, as the combined entity is now known, will write close to $20 billion in premium volume in 2021 on surplus of more than $200 billion. By comparison, the entire global reinsurance industry has combined surplus of roughly $600 billion (closer to $700 billion when including alternative capital such as catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities). The industry will write roughly $300 billion in premiums. Berkshire writes less than 7% of combined reinsurance industry premium volume but has more than one-third of industry equity capital. If anybody wonders how Berkshire can have so much of its insurance companies’ investments in common stocks instead of fixed income securities, look no further. On a different note, if i am not mistaken, the "client letter" portion of Semper site is now locked-up. (on demand only) Client Letter (semperaugustus.com)

Finished the book. Overall did not enjoy it. Knew most of the content, but did learn few interesting lores during the early days of shale. Happy to have bought the softcover version and waited for 2 years for it.

This recent episode of 12/22 is really good War on the Rocks | Listen to Podcasts On Demand Free | TuneIn