Xerxes

I had owned Cameco between 2015 and 2021. Believed in its position but ran out of patience. Ultimately the money got redeployed to Bombardier, which did very well as well.

go up and re-read what you wrote yourself: you said significant %, not significant numbers. second, i stated so that you understand that supporting theocracy and being pious are not the same. how you concluded whatever you thought I said is beyond me. maybe you need to take a break here

first 20-30% of 92 million may means 10 of millions, but that still does not mean majority. So significant in numbers but not majority. Second being pious doesn’t mean wanting theocracy. Even the highest ranking member of Shia clergy*, Grand Ayatollah Sistani, who is based in Basra, Iraq, was against State and the Chruch being ruled as one. * which wasn’t Khamenei btw

Don’t make me laugh. His view is not the view of the majority people in the country.

There is nothing wrong with being religious and pious, but I think almost all of your comments have a high correlation with regime’ talking points. Now, in times of war, people do revert back and have hardline point of view. No one likes their country being sneak attacked and bombed. Wasnt American war rally in the 1940s, “kill all the Japs”. Wasn’t American war rally post 911, “turn Middle East into a parking lot”. Or “nuke this or that”. Looks like only Americans are allowed to be stupid in this world. In any case: With that being said, this is not FOX News message board, or YouTube where one has to defend a maximalist position. I have asked you this before. Maybe you didn’t not see it. ———//////_———- Question: What are the top 5 issue (domestic and foreign) that you feel the regime in Tehran could have done a much better job in the past 5, 10 and 20 years. Is there anything ? Without referring or blaming to Americans and Israelis anything ?

You are not very good in history. Are you ? Arabs will side with anybody to fight their neighbours. As far as the recent war, Iran attacks on the Gulf nation is no different than Israel attack on state of Lebanon that is harbouring Hizballah.

I cannot stand whenever I hear Marandi talk, he is always beating around the bush. Here is a key point that I make: It is none of Iran’ business if Israel is an apartheid state or not. It is none of Iran business to opine what form of government there should be there or not. The Persians lost the Holy Lands, when the armies of Khusru Parviz retreated before Herclius, a quarter century before Islam. We have no historical claim, no cultural claim and definitely no religious claim. So all this nonsense, is a creation of Khomeini, largely magnified by Khamenei, and the main target is not even the domestic Iranian audience: it was the Arab population. Iran, as a Persian majority nation, has no chance to gain influence in the 80s and 90s with the Sunni population in the Arab countries, so they became protector of Palestinian rights. PS: nothing is wrong with arguing for the Palestinian cause. This needs not to be binary.

Thank you. I will have a look at it. Iran, the country, has the curse of being in one the most contested area in the world, with a large population and resources. There has been and always will be foreign interferences in different way. The Ayatollah regime was an antibody to that, but it went too far. The pendulum always swings too far. If Iran had a small population with the same geography and resources, I suspected there would have been far less foreign interference. I don’t know what the future holds, but I suspect the post-Khamenei Iran under IRGC will be far more nationalistic than Islamic. At the end of the day while most Iranians are not religious, they are nationalist, and there there could be “new social contract” between people and the new IRGC regime.

The equilibrium has been overturned, the genie is out of the bottle. There is no going back. Let’s assess impact twelve months from now. In the short term any one person can extrapolate a prevailing snapshot. We just don’t know lot of things.

Zelenskyy has already offered his $2,000 drone killer. Innovation comes with counter innovation. Just the fact that more then 800 Patriot/THAAD were fired in 3-4 days than the entire Ukraine-Russian War by Ukraine is mind boggling.

Gemini inquiry bases on recent podcast/research ————- How much Patriot and THAAD the gulf countries used in the recent war Contrast that with Ukraine usage of the patriot type since 2022 Contrast that with RTX / Lockheed production rate —————- Gemini speaks: Recent reports from early 2026 indicate a staggering "consumption gap" between the high-intensity air defense operations in the Middle East and the sustained attrition warfare in Ukraine. 1. Gulf & Middle East Usage (Recent War) The intensity of the conflict following the February 2026 strikes has seen a record expenditure of advanced interceptors. * Patriot (PAC-3 MSE): In just three days of the February 2026 escalation, an estimated 800 Patriot missiles were fired by U.S. and Gulf allies (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles and drone swarms. * THAAD: Reports indicate that roughly 25% of the total U.S. THAAD stockpile was expended during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June 2025. In the current 2026 conflict, usage remains high, with at least 150–250 interceptors used in single salvos. * Total Cost: Estimates suggest Gulf countries and the U.S. have spent over $5.1 billion on interceptors in the opening weeks of the 2026 conflict alone. 2. Ukraine Usage (2022–2026) President Zelensky recently highlighted a stark contrast: the Middle East used more Patriots in three days than Ukraine received in four years. * Total Deliveries: Since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, Ukraine has received approximately 600 to 620 Patriot interceptors in total. * The Disparity: Ukraine’s entire four-year supply is roughly 25% less than what was consumed in the Middle East in a single 72-hour window. * Operational Constraints: Due to limited stocks, Ukraine has had to be extremely selective, often only engaging high-value ballistic threats (like the Kinzhal) while letting lower-tier drones or cruise missiles pass through if other systems (NASAMS/IRIS-T) are unavailable. 3. RTX & Lockheed Production Rates (2026 Status) The industrial base is currently in a "break-glass" expansion mode to meet this demand, but lead times remain a bottleneck. > Key Insight: The U.S. currently produces roughly 50 PAC-3 missiles per month. During the peak of the 2026 Gulf conflict, allies were firing nearly 260 missiles per day. This represents a consumption rate roughly 150 times higher than the replacement rate. > Would you like me to look into the specific technical improvements being made to the PAC-3 MSE "hit-to-kill" software to better handle the terminal-phase maneuvers seen in the 2026 conflict?

wait till they release the you-save-10%-annual “ayatollah subscription fee” for those who want the convenience of not having to pay each time and are ok to have their credit card information with IRGC Next year, they will bundle that with “waiver on attacks on your assets fee”. It is actually very Trumpian and transactional and in line with the new world order

Trump and Buffett do have some commonality: they both deeply believe that when it comes to releasing apocalyptic Tweets and/or releasing a 10K, to do so when the market are closed in NY.

The different views and analysis posted here completely ignores the divergent objectives of U.S. and that of Israel. And more importantly the Gulf shiekhdoms as they are stakeholders as well. U.S. is looking for its “Delcy” and doesn’t want state fracture and chaos. Israel is arguably looking for state fracture; as the cost of that fracture is borne not by itself but by the Gulf region. The Gulf region wants durable peace as they have moved away from playing the game of thrones. Their focus is economic development, which is now totally upended. Very different objectives

Btw Ghalibaf is more of a crook/thief than a regime ideologue. In other words, someone Trump can work with. Game knows game.

Hi @ourkid8 was wondering if you had any thoughts on the above

Cheers. Not sure this will lead to regime change, in the short term. But the seeds of its destruction / structural changes are being planted. I personally subscribe to the view that Mojtada elevation as leader (whether he is alive or not), was essentially a IRGC internal coup over the religious establishment. At the same time the 1980s generation of leaders that grew up with the horrors of the war is largely gone. That generation was known and predictable. Now we have unknown and unpredictable leaders. I guess we have to stay tuned and watch

South Bow

In the 1980s, Saddam modified Scud missiles, by removing some warhead, for more range. Essentially the same weapon with a trade-off. Those could reach Tehran. I was at the receiving end of it. The ones launched in the Indian Ocean, from what I understand are essentially Khoramshahr-4 with warhead removed/reduced for range. https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/table-irans-missile-arsenal#:~:text=[15] Iran has displayed at,powered by small rocket thrusters. [15] Iran has displayed at least three different variants of the Khorramshahr missile (Khorramshahr-1, -2, and -4), each potentially with its own specifications in terms of range, warhead size, and accuracy. Iran has consistently claimed that the missile has a 2,000 km maximum range and a warhead with a mass of 1,500 kg or greater. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom claimed in 2019, however, that one variant of the missile has a nose cone whose size would limit the warhead mass to about 750 kg. They further claimed that the modelling of such a missile puts its range at approximately 3,000 km, which would classify it as an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). See, “Letter dated 25 March 2019 from the Permanent Representatives of France, Germany and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General," United Nations Security Council, S/2019/270, March 27, 2019, available at https://www.undocs.org/S/2019/270.

Making comparison to Nazi might be a way to sell ticket to the show, but it doesn’t do anyone any favour. As for Nazi, we were glad to make deals with the worse than Nazi (I.e Stalin) to beat the Nazi, only because the Nazi Germany was dominating Central Europe and USSR was to its east. If USSR was located in Central Europe and Nazi Germany to its east, we would make a deal with Hitler to bring down Stalin. And the trio of FDR, Hitler and Churchill would meeting in Yalta. Later we made a deal with a cult driven despicable Maoist regime, to target a technocratic Soviet Union that arguably was far less revolutionary than the Maoist regime. So there is no morality in all this. Just diverging interest of nation states. Instead of hyperbolic for the sake of hyperbolic, call them what they are: a deeply militarized theocratic out of the date regime, stuck in the revolutionary zeal of the 1980s.

Good news we are not going to hear much about GordonHowe bridge, …. unless Trump raises the issue in the 5 minutes between Iran War and Cuba War

Well until few months ago I believe Russian natural gas flowed into pipeline through Ukraine and into Central Europe, Hungary I think. Hungary paid its bill to Gazprom, and in turn Russia paid its transit fee to Ukraine for their trouble.

That worked well with a high IRR I have Exxon for a full decade now, that one took its time. Strathcona thanks to the folks here, which I was about to eject, but kept and South Bow; the owner of Keystone

i will pay my share of “ayatollah tax” at the pump and jet fuel for travel if structurally higher prices lead to more redundancy being built into the energy ecosystem, I am all for it. No matter how this Gulf War III* ends risk premium on the crude is back ! * placeholder name until Trump tell us the name for the war.