Xerxes

Off it went into the “too hard pile”

I think the example that you have in mind and maybe are inferring are situations like Libya, Syria and Iraq. Those were different in that it was a “tribe” that was in power. In Iraq the Saddam’ tribe, which was I think based in Tikrit. Remove the patriarch, the rest comes down. in fact the entire Saddam republican guard were recruited from Tikrit. In Libya, the same. In Syria, it was the Alwite minority. In Iran and Egypt, things are different because they are highly institutionalized. I think higher up in this thread to an answer to John I describe how most different ethnicities within Iran have a powerful presence in the organs of state. There are no tribes. It is a regime that was forged in the fires of early 1980s where it saw a devastating land war, assassinations, counter revolution, so it has resiliency built into it. But like all things it will eventually ran out of gas. I understand the easy answer is to throw in religion and say they want martyrdom. But the easy answer is not always the right answer. As for as Russia, the entire Kremlin complex has a strong view toward Ukraine. Take out Putin, the war escalates in my view.

Cheers As a further clarification: Iran-Iraq War was driven by nationalism and not religious. Yes young Iranian men (boys) volunteered to go to the frontline to give their life and safeguard the homeland, revolutionary fervour may have been their jet fuel, but they fought and died for Iran and not Islam. Khomeini actually tried hard to make the case of religious war between Shia and the infidel Sunni of Iraq. He tried to rise up the Shia in the south of Iraq. It didn’t work. The Iraqi Shia (eventhough they were majority) fought and died for their country and not Khomeini. On Saddam side, he tried to play the Arab vs Persian card. He tried to rise up the Arab Iranians (there is a small minority concentrated in the south west of Iran) against their Persian “overlord”. It didn’t work either. The Arab Iranians fought and died for Iran. At the end, it was just a war between two very stupid people (Khomeini and Saddam) with oversized egos as often the case. The other 1 million people had to pay the price.

Iran-Iraq War is different. That was a land invasion with an aim of annexation, pushed by pretty much all major powers, when the new government was just less than a year old. I was born in the summer before the war broke out and was 8 years old when it ended in 1988. Khamenei and his cohort all came from that era. The lesson they learned was that they can never trust foreign powers and have to be self sufficient. All of that cohort are mostly retired or dead. The new cohort are veteran from the Syrian War era. I don’t know what that means and if that is good or bad. But I would not compare this war to that from the 1980s. No one likes their country being bombed but there is also a recognition that the regime had it coming. Now if things dragged out and if there is a major ground component, if infrastructure keeps getting attacked, than it is no longer a war on the regime but on the whole country. Also, I would not call them irrational. We may not like them. But they got their escalation ladders and target set. They may not care about their civilian, not because they are irrational, but because a rational autocratic government doesn’t care about its population. https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000756293574 i think you will be interest in this Oddlot episode.

Most likely the attack on South Pars was out of anger, maybe something got hit badly in Israel, in the more recent ballistic attack. They are under bombardment with complete media blackout. Not every target that Israel hit is logical and thought through. They are humans too and can get angry too.

I watched half way through. I had to stop as I had to make the drive to Ontario for new year stuff. He seems to be doing a good aggregating the news of the day. That said in the way he speaks he comes off as a bit FOX-y, so that comes a bit off.

it is too bad the same logic doesn’t apply to say proponent of Vietnam war. Namely LBJ, Nixon, Westmoreland and other ..

Hmmm someone is getting out

The not so precision targeting of IDF. A 20 something year old Kurdish Iranian.

there is a HUGE difference Except the few that have Starlink, almost no one has access to the Internet. It was shutdown during the two-day massacre in January and has been shutdown again when war broke out. All the Iranians that I know in Canada have to wait for their family to call them using paidcard. A quick call to say we are good, and that we didn’t die, or that person is ok etc. So if the internet is shut that means their voices cannot be heard. Therefore in that vaccum, what is coming from the regime is magnified. CNN reporter going to state rallies doesn’t really help. here is from the foreign minister himself explaining ….

you misunderstood me sure hijab is mostly gone specially in Tehran, ….. (but thanks to the women who led the movement, and those who paid with their lives, and no thanks to the government by the way) i was talking about the same pro-regime hijabless woman that seems to always be there to be interviewed. Sorry if I cause confusion

it is simple anything that has high resolution camera from Tehran is state-approved. Now a days, you even see a lot of “interviews” with women without Hijab in state rallies. Sometimes you see the same hijab less woman appearing in different locations expressing her love for IR. Weird that regime always happen to find the same woman to interview. And the fools from CNN played into their hand by sending there one CNN reporter to watch state rally and funerals by the regime Faithful. Wow. Some amazing on the ground reporting.

Sinking the warships was childish affair unworthy of Pentagon. The Navy was probably the most insulated element of the armed forces from IRGC ideologues. The hunting the other ship close of Sri Lanka was nothing more than a recreation of sinking of General Belgrado by HMS Conqueror for the MAGA Faithful. Instead they should have gone after the drone mine ship and IRGC gunboats right away. They left that for second half.

“Iran has to get everything it wants” is pretty much covered by Vali Nasr last week. It is a good episode, if you do listen to it remember that Vali Nasr is speaking from a regime point of view (as that is his job as an analyst) and not his own personal view. Some people (usually Americans) who watch his analysis get confused because they think he is speaking for the regime. I disagree that they cannot play this card given. In fact they normalized it. Given the range vs cost vs utility, of a 2,000 km drone, that option is always there. That is why new leadership is needed

While most of you fine North Americans and Europeans are stuck with your “recency bias” of 100,000-man force in Iraq, coupled with the word “quagmire”, thrown in for good measure, I will go back to what I said three weeks ago. Watch the Iranian regular army. Now now now don’t get too excited, I don’t mean as a deterrence to any ground operations by U.S., so no need to furiously reply how awesome are U.S. forces and how everyone should be shaking in their boots. But rather Iranian regular army as an internal pre-1979 institution that can be used to lever against the security elements of IRGC, if the right lever are pulled on the top. As far as”boots on the ground”. What does that mean exactly. If you think there are no special forces already operating, then you already off. Unless special forces don’t wear boots.

Iran has a lot of latent dormant potential. The biggest is the people itself. Natural gas fields are gigantic but I believe are mostly geared for domestic consumption. Qatar side of it geared for exports for obvious reasons, given very limited Qatari consumption.

Q1 Does the law of the land also applies to the elite and the oligarchy ? This is not a theoretical “should apply” question. Does it apply or not Q2 If there is a referendum tomorrow and people are given the following options without foreign intervention in the process: 1 - Islamic Republic 2 - Presidential Republic 3 - Constitutional monarchy with parliamentary system 4 - Absolute monarchy which one will you chose ? which one do you think serves best the interests of people ? if a significant majority choose #2 and #3 will you be ok with that. I am guessing yes. But just asking

W-E has a capacity of 7 mbd, of which 2 goes for internal consumption. That leaves 5 that reaches the Res Sea, but the port itself doesn’t have enough capacity. Lastly, there always the case that IRGC goes after W-E like they did in 2019, when they signalled that they can. Going after those probably easier than enforcing Hormuz They won’t now but the enemy gets to vote too.

Gemini : on E-W to take off pressure from Hormuz While the Saudi East-West Pipeline (Petroline) is a massive "safety valve," it only handles a fraction of the total volume that normally transits the Strait of Hormuz. The current situation (as of March 2026) highlights a significant structural gap between what the world needs and what the pipelines can deliver: The Numbers: Pipelines vs. The Strait • Hormuz Flow: In 2025, approximately 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and refined products passed through the Strait. • Total Bypass Capacity: Even with every available pipeline running at "redline" capacity, the maximum bypass across the entire region is only about 6.5 to 8.5 million bpd. Where the Oil Goes (The Bottleneck) Even though the Saudi Petroline has a theoretical "nameplate" capacity of 7 million bpd, it can't replace the Strait for several technical reasons: 1. Refinery vs. Export: About 2 million bpd of that capacity is sucked up by domestic refineries on Saudi Arabia's west coast. This leaves only about 5 million bpd available for international export. 2. The "Yanbu" Bottleneck: The pipeline might move 7 million barrels, but the port of Yanbu (the western terminus) has an effective loading limit of roughly 4.5 million bpd. You can't ship more than the tankers can load. 3. Grade Limitations: The pipeline is primarily configured for Arab Light and Arab Extra Light. Heavier grades or refined products from the Gulf coast still have no easy way out.

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-hc-commodities-podcast/id1512721188?i=1000755994424 Unlike financial assets, a central bank can’t be printing molecules of crude or natural gas to stabilize a dislocated market. Are we in a January 2020 moment ? Market complacency leading to a March 2020

I made my 2025 retirement contribution all in one shot during last year Liberation Day in April and all of it on CNQ. Insignificant compared to my overall portfolio, but still need to do my annual contribution,

Anyone knows if she is single

I “grew up” with X files. Watching it on and off in the 90s, when I could catch it on Sunday evening I think it was. Tried some years ago to take a go at it in the digital age, doing a full marathon. But sadly I was repulsed so much by lousy and lazy 90s writing, and the one-off episode where nothing happens. So it went into “too hard pile” just after the first 10 minutes of the first episode of the first season.

I am not familiar with OIL as a ticker. there is an “energy thread” perhaps that can help with your subject in question