Xerxes

Things are never bad as they look in the worse of times (interest rate headwind) and never as good as they look in the best of times (interest rate tailwind). On BX, at some point in IDK late 2023, the DE will/hope (?) bottom out, and so will the share price. While “harvest” and realizing gains is on pause, seeds are to be planted by BX counter cyclically. Until then the collapse in the multiple is warranted, until they can demonstrate to the market that the asset-light business is an “all weather” business. Given that there is no post-BX-IPO historical data on this business as light asset business operating in normalized rate environment. Lastly while the business certainly had a tailwind in a zero rate world, as institutional capital flowed in, and while the IPO was in 2009. it does not mean that John Grey and Steve Schawrzman were born yesterday (I.e the day before zero rate kicked in 08-09). They know a thing or two.

there you go. Both of these episodes https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591512926 https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591012314

War on the Rocks had another amazing episode this past Wednesday. No mumbo-jumbo.

for what it is worth, I think Chevron was a temporary liquid “plug” for Buffett, as events (Ukraine war/energy security) overtook him, so he went at it fast to have a desired oil & gas exposure at portfolio level. But once he is able to get his desired % ownership of Occidental, chevron will be trimmed.

Greetings from Lisbon Viking. I am going to enjoy ready your thread in the coming days. Just need to find a nice coffee shop !! Happy holidays. You Rock !

UK, Don’t be shy. The so-called military experts get plenty wrong ALL the time. It is the military historians that get plenty right, as the latter is a backward-looking fact-based profession while the former is forward-looking profession, drawing from past biases and framework of the last war, while heavily ignoring the law of randomness. If military expert were right all the time, all wars launched should be concluded swiftly as it was overseen by experts. And all the wars were the outcome was deemed unfavourable would not be launched. When politicians do not overwrite military leaders. it is like the whole market efficiency discussion.

the letters are great. But the time allocation to it is odd vs the rest of its portfolio. I don’t have any direct investment with Mr Bloomstrans, so perhaps none of my business , but my selfish side would want him to write about his other positions as well. I recall few years ago he briefly wrote about Starbucks, Walt Disney, Costco . That was nice. More if that.

All correct except the Italian example. Italy might be geographically located where the centre of Roman institutions were based, but I would hardly call them “heir to the Roman republic”. Italy as a unified kingdom created in the 19th century can definitely draw legacy and heritage from the many Italian kingdoms and republics (Genoa, Venice, twin kingdom of Sicily and Naples, Turin etc) but not the empire of Rome. Just as Iraq cannot draw heritage from its Babylonian past. To me, the heir to the Roman Empire, if any, was the Ottoman Empire. Of course you had Moscow as the “third Rome”, The Habsburgs, Napoleonic empire and that of Charles V all seeking “Imperial” legitimacy as heir to Rome. Any of those above is far closer to Rome than the Italians or other post-476 AD Germanic kingdoms. I will definitely get the Italians angry with my post.

From CNBC “China to scrap quarantine for international travelers in an essential end of zero-Covid” this must be either a massive inflationary tailwind with the opening up of the economy… or a massive deflationary tailwind … if their Covid numbers explodes.

There is also a Bloomstran interview from Dec 2022. Page 32 and onward Graham Doddsville Fall 2022 Issue 46_0.pdf (columbia.edu)

Complete a 2022 milestone of watching Dance with Wolves. The 3 hour version. Came to realize there is also a 4 hour version ! Unrelated, the SAS Rogues show on Prime is interesting. Starts of in the deserts of North Africa, with the Desert Fox's laying seige to the town of Tobruk.

Finally completed the 2022 objective of reading the Berkshire portion (page 75 and up) of this years report. Page 106-107 were the highlights for me, when he talks about capital surplus vs. its peers. The reinsurance operation at Berkshire, National Indemnity (including retroactive reinsurance and periodic payment annuity) and General Reinsurance, holds and requires most of the insurance capital. Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, as the combined entity is now known, will write close to $20 billion in premium volume in 2021 on surplus of more than $200 billion. By comparison, the entire global reinsurance industry has combined surplus of roughly $600 billion (closer to $700 billion when including alternative capital such as catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities). The industry will write roughly $300 billion in premiums. Berkshire writes less than 7% of combined reinsurance industry premium volume but has more than one-third of industry equity capital. If anybody wonders how Berkshire can have so much of its insurance companies’ investments in common stocks instead of fixed income securities, look no further. On a different note, if i am not mistaken, the "client letter" portion of Semper site is now locked-up. (on demand only) Client Letter (semperaugustus.com)

Finished the book. Overall did not enjoy it. Knew most of the content, but did learn few interesting lores during the early days of shale. Happy to have bought the softcover version and waited for 2 years for it.

This recent episode of 12/22 is really good War on the Rocks | Listen to Podcasts On Demand Free | TuneIn

I see it more as FOX SNL. Comedy. Sadly this thread will continue well into 2023 and beyound. ----------------------------------- I was thinking to the earlier days of the war, and the "Ukraine is Weak" episode of Seinfeld came to mind as the one constant theme for 2022. I did a bit of digging - powered by Google Search. The episode was aired on January 1995. The Label Maker - Wikipedia A month earlier, in December, 1994, the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, U.K., and the U.S. signed agreement to provide Ukraine with security assurances for returning the nuclear warheads to Russia'. A rather funny coincidence. ----------------------------------- Back to serious stuff. Much has said about the 1994 memorendum. What has been unsaid is the fact, even if Ukraine had chosen to keep the nuclear warheads, they did not have the "command code" which comes from the Kremlin. Having physical warheads and having control over them are two different things. In that alternative scenario, where Ukraine had chosen to keep the nukes, the historical timeline would have gone a different direction entirely, STARTING in 1994 and onward, AND not the way most Westerners would think => Which starts in 2014, and assumes Ukraine has nukes and Et Voila: - Crimea would not have happened. - Feb 22, 2022, would not have happened. - Ukraine part of NATO That change in that decision point in time, in 1994, would have maybe put Ukraine on path to become a pariah state over the next years and perhaps a closer partner to Russian Federation. Or U.S. could have teamed up with Russia to militarily remove those nukes.

https://financialpost.com/telecom/media/michael-bloomberg-looking-to-buy-dow-jones-washington-post Looking to beef up

Some of the Western media depiction of the war has been cartoonish at best. Not the facts but how they are depicted. I dont know how many YouTube vidoes have been poping out with armchair generals making sweeping "walk in the park" declaration. Like momentum-driven investors, some of these folks are trend-followers. Take a snapshot of say event in Aug, project forward, and declare the Zelensky will be at Moscow' gate by Christmas [sarcasim] I would recommend folks to check out the few articles on The Economist which interviewed the president of Ukraine, along with its top general as well as the commander of the ground forces. They certainly do not see it as a walk in the park. To a certain degree, the upbeat optimistic Western narrative has been good for Ukraine in the first half of the war. That said, I think the Ukrainian leadership would prefer for folks to see it as it is, an uphill struggle where they need all the help they can get. Not a scene off a Rambo movie. EXAMPLE: Fact: Russian conscript are nowhere near the level of training Ukraine forces have and are getting. Western Media: LOLOLOL they dont even have proper gear, LOL the have antiquidated guns LOL Ukrainian/NATO: Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals explain why the war hangs in the balance | The Economist The third challenge is the most serious. Russia’s mobilisation effort has been widely disparaged, with countless stories of inadequate kit and disgruntled conscripts. Ukraine’s general staff and its Western partners are more wary. “We all know that the quality is poor and that they lack equipment,” says Kusti Salm of Estonia’s defence ministry. “But the fact that they can mobilise so fast is an early-warning dilemma for Ukraine and ultimately for nato.” Schemes run by Britain and the European Union can train around 30,000 Ukrainian troops in 18 months, he says. Russia has been able to conjure up five times as many new soldiers in a fraction of the time. “Russian mobilisation has worked,” says General Zaluzhny. “A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war.” General Syrsky agrees: “The enemy shouldn’t be discounted. They are not weak…and they have very great potential in terms of manpower.” He gives the example of how Russian recruits, equipped only with small arms, successfully slowed down Ukrainian attacks in Kreminna and Svatove in Luhansk province—though the autumn mud helped. Mobilisation has also allowed Russia to rotate its forces on and off the front lines more frequently, he says, allowing them to rest and recuperate. “In this regard, they have an advantage.”

I am personally against this type of fundraising. It is one thing for soldiers to write messages on payloads/shells (they are doing the fighting after all) than turn the practice into some sort of commercial enterprise. unrelated, I thought that this was rather entertaining. https://ca.yahoo.com/news/bomb-squad-called-er-88-085637481.html

Happy holidays everyone all the best !!

Long, but good i have read the first 2/5 How Putin’s War in Ukraine Became a Catastrophe for Russia - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Just in time. Bill Miller just answered my question: Bill Miller Is Still Bullish on Bitcoin—and a Lot More | Barron's (barrons.com)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-12-22/scott-minerd-of-guggenheim-partners-has-died-at-age-63

I have been listening to Scott, whenever he popped out on TV in the past couple of year may he rests in peace.

Tucker never fails