Xerxes

There are a lot of heroic assumptions here about the ease of policy change from the current (1) “not letting Ukraine lose” … to … (2) “make Ukraine win” The former would be easier to fit in a sandbox, capping liabilities on every side, knowing what you get. While the latter may have both uncapped potential and as well as uncapped unintended negative consequence. That said, both policies are great for the military industrial complex. In terms of geopolitical outcome, would you rather sell calls/puts for a steady drip or buy large chunks of out of money call options.

For what is worth and just as a datapoint, unlike FIH whose performance fee are based on BV (and neither market value nor the spread between the two), the Brookfield performance fee for BIP, BEP and the affiliates is based on their market value and not their NAV.

Russia has already de jure annexed those territories. There is no such thing as de facto annex, when they already de jure annexed. what you are trying to say is that it has de facto control on most of it. And enough control to make life miserable in the parts that it doesn’t control but are formally annexed.

See the blue link on the first post. These are from 2014.

I

This must be a mistake and a mixup White House spokesperson, Adrienne Watson, said in a statement that Indian officials “expressed surprise and concern” at the accusations, suggesting extraterritorial assassinations were “not their policy”. “We understand the Indian government is further investigating this issue and will have more to say about it in the coming days. We have conveyed our expectation that anyone deemed responsible should be held accountable,” said Watson.

Speaking of Coca Cola. The podcast argues that unlike Pepsi which has become a snack company, Coke has become a total beverage company. That its key moat is its massive distribution and relationship with bottlers, where it can push out new products (Monster drink being one) at a global scale that its M&A team add in. Naturally the actual Coke business is not growing that much so other non-Coke drinks and beverages are contributing.

Happy Thanksgiving !!

the most important part of this post. That means we got more upside. Or mid-innings

Your statement is wrong. And too simplified. Two Arab states have a peace treaty with Israel now more than several decades. And four more joined in thanks to the Abraham Accord. And the Kingdom has the de facto close relationship with Israel. That is pretty much covered the majority of significant Arab states. And lastly Oman is the Switzerland of the Middle East, where different political factions can meet informally. So your statement is incorrect. Now the Arab governments have to balance their foreign policy with domestic points of views. Otherwise, they are out of job. That is a balancing act. No different than US president and Western politicians spewing out mumbo jumbo for a domestic audience and secure votes. Specifically on the different factions within the Sunni world, there are two key blocks + one key Shia block. (1) One is what I call is the “statues quo” faction made of Saudi, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. These are the powers predominantly monarchies (except for Egypt) where their power rests on the maintaining the statue quo. They have been largely getting close to Israel. But the Garza War has been making it more and more difficult for the Kingdom to get back in. I don’t think it is dead, but definitely pushed back by a few years. (2) the other power is the “political islam” power block. Predominantly, Qatar and Turkey. The two champions of Muslim Brotherhood, from which Hamas has spawned. Qatar and Turkey had been the fuelling the Arab spring via Al-Jazeera that was toppling the “old order” in 2010s. Egypt for a short while became part of this group when Mohammed Morsi was in power, but now it is firmly back in camp (1). My view is that this power block exists because of Turkey wanting to reassert its leadership of the Sunni world and because Qatar (Al-Thani) wants to keep its sovereignty from Saudi Arabia. Therefore these two desires come into conflict with the “statues quo” camp. (3) And lastly of course there is Iran, which is neither of these two camps. And in fact is a Shia dominated country. They are revisionist power that will keep maintaining soft and hard power through Mesopotamia and Levant, as they have done in the days when Caesars ruled Constantinople, when Caliphs ruled Baghdad, and when Sultans held power in Istanbul, over a span more than a millennium. That insecurity for national security will always be there.

Right. But that is the locals. My comments is about commentators in the West.

Israel should do what it need to do with Hamas or any other national security threats. State or non-state. I don’t think that is in dispute. It is called national security. Why is everyone bringing this up to make a point ? Iran dealt the same way with ISIS in Iraq. A fact not understood or covered by Western brainwashing media. And Iran deals the same way with its perceived state-level adversaries and enemies, outside its border. If Iran, the anti-Western, does it, surely Israel can do so as well. And has been doing as well. Going back to Israel, the more recent Israeli government was more interested in pushing its settlement into the West Bank to fulfill its messianic dreams and needed to keep Hamas on its best behaviour. They even allowed Qatar transfer fund to Hamas. Fracturing the Palestinian position, pushing settlers and undermining whatever remains of its leadership and driving a wedge was more important to the current Israeli government than economic development and creating incentives. Unfortunately, Bibi was out-snaked by the Hamas snake (snake bigger than him). He got played. Hamas was not going to left hanging with the Israeli-Saudi rapprochement and had to play its hand, now or never. Therefore Bibi bears responsibility as well through sheer incompetence. Understand that just because a politician wears a tie and is able to climb to power through democratic means, it doesn’t mean he cannot be a psychopath or sociopath or a bloodthirsty man, or all at the sametime. Just as one can give credit to previous Israeli governments to try to mend and make peace with a stubborn Palestinian leadership one needs to acknowledge the current government mishaps. However few pro-Israeli posters can. They are polarized. As far as the 10K death, Israeli are just accelerating what they already been doing for decades. So nothing new there. Just as nothing new with Hamas, going after people who have absolutely nothing to do with any of this. There is just more spotlight than before. State-terrorism does exist as much as non-state terrorism. Strangling an entire population through cool gadgets over decades doesn’t make it more noble than bombing civilians via F-16 and that doesn’t make it more noble than Hamas tactics. How many posters can acknowledge that ? Two things can be truth at the same time. One should be able to comment/acknowledge that the Israeli are pursuing state-terrorism but one can also comment that they are at war. A war that was brought to them. At least in this current 2023 flare up context. Forgetting for a moment the long boring history behind it, that I cannot be bothered with. How many who have commented on this thread are able to raise their hand and acknowledge the comment above, while maintaining at the same time that it needs to be done. That is what war exists after all. Hence my comment on polarizing. Folks are hell bent to want to be right. It is their TRUTH. On the oversized attention that thing gets, I find it troubling (poor Zelenskyy) All I know is that in 2018 they’re throwing live babies into bonfires in Burma, and the media and the Western Instagram influencers could not be bothered with, because the victims were neither Jewish nor Palestinian. where the f&$k is Burma anyways Lastly both Palestinian and Israeli play the “media” victim card outside the war zone. Note how much insult the Israeli hurl toward the UN chief, for saying the right thing. The UN chief is not even able to make a comment without being branded as antisemite. And on the Palestinian side, for throwing in historical justification of 10/07 atrocities, because of this that and the other thing. Bullshit is everywhere. And probably some in my post as well. How many posters here can smell both sides and not just the side that is inconsistent to their polarized view. because of the polarized nature of the conflict it is a conversation not worth having.

What if you were both wrong and right at the same time. Can you hold two different points of views at the same time ? I think we best leave the discussion on current ME conflict outside this forum. It is very polarizing, and doesn’t bring the best in people. (Not in me anyways).

awesome. Was looking for the title. I ll go with your guess. thank you https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chungking_Express on a different note started to watch White Lotus … Omg !!

Have you read this one ?

Anyone seeen this movie. saw it on FB

It would be fascinating to know what equities Prem holds in his PA outside FFH (which constituted +90% of his wealth) I think Atlas was in his PA, and now it seems BB as well. Stelco ?

It seems we were misled by Trudeau. There was an actual case of espionage behind the arrest of the two Canadians in China. I want and demand compensation from Trudeau for creating negative biases in my head that made me avoid going back in China. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-spavor-blames-fellow-prisoner-for-china-arrest-1.2000388.amp.html

The Benicio dude was scary in Sicario. He was great in Snatch as well. Oh yes !! The glorious go-go 90s. It seems so far away now.

BB additional common stock purchase could be close to the end of Q3, meaning that the 13F didn’t capture the rest of it, which could be in Q4. In any case, I am speculating. That said it is peculiar. We don’t have all the facts. Same for Farmer’ Edge. That said the one recent piece of news that I do find interesting is this piece from The Globe that Viking posted. I realize that it says “in personal capacity”, but I just wonder if a coal side project is a best use of one’ bandwidth. I am not sure why Pierre Lassonde find so mystifying. This is Glencore we are taking about with all of the commitment it is making above and beyond purchase price. Not some consortium of three amigoes wanting to get into coal business as a side gig.

^^^^ Here is the actual podcast. As it happened I listened to it several days ago not because of the comment about AI, but rather because it is Brad Gerstner speaking. This guy is my hero. Upbeat, willing and able to make an impact, outside the investment world. It is nice to listen to someone who is on the same wavelength as you. You seem him coming on CNBC now and then. Big bull on Booking (for a long time), Snowflake and others. Also as it happens in this specific episode he talks about Ted W. from Berkshire. You might find that part interesting. https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/art-of-investing/id1708212587?i=1000634603785

To think of it, we all made fun of FFH calling the IPO of Farmer’ Edge “monetization”. Looks like it was indeed actually a “monetization”, we were just missing the last chapter, which would mean FFH would monetize on the spread between IPO and take out offer.

oh no. Prem Watsa is pulling a Bruce Flatt. Flatt is bad guy. Watsa is good guy. the narrative now changed. Both bad guys.