Xerxes

love it !!

I am actually glad he didn’t mention them. They don’t deserve recognition.

that is somewhat true. For NATO inclusion to be effective, it needs to be based on agreed by both sides border. And not pre-2014 border. Since one cannot expand NATO membership to Ukraine with one fifth of the country under occupation. That would automatically create a formal state of war between Russia and NATO. Russia needs to accept (wether it likes or not) that as price to formally keep the territories in Eastern Ukraine there needs to be a some sort of NATO membership or very explicit security guarantees for the now shrunken Ukraine. Otherwise no one would believe it can hold.

man. Those trailers were so long back in the day.

Looks like both BX and BAM/BN underperformed compared to Ares, Apollo and KKR. Neither Blackstone and Brookfield complex were able to breached their previous all time highs.

I think sometimes Westerners forget (or don’t know) that the entire Western colonial empires were built via taking a bite, appeasing and then backstabbing and taking another bite. Rinse and repeat. All year long. The issue with Chamberlain, Munich and now overused infamous appeasement is that it involved Germany. A rival continental superpower. If the roles were reversed, you would not have a myth built around it as cautionary tale. Only Britain is allowed to pull that. Not Germany. PS: Hitler just followed empire building blueprint pioneered by the British*. His mistake was to use it in Europe against fellow white people. Blasphemy!!!! *yes I am quite familiar with the commercial nature of British empire. But the way they creeped and felled the Mughuls and others slowly biting, being appeased by the victims, biting another limb off. Slowly but surely felling one civilization after another.

The “dead hand” would be the deterrence as the system is built to retaliate in case of a pre-emptive decapitation strike. I have read David Hoffman’ book on it. It was built by a very nervous Soviet leadership before the fall. They saw threats everywhere. They were so paranoid that they did not even disclose the “dead hand” existence. Usually you need to disclose your deterrence capabilities, so that the other side is “deterred”. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand https://www.amazon.ca/Dead-Hand-Untold-Dangerous-Legacy/dp/0307387844?nodl=1&dplnkId=3ecd89c2-6c4e-4fd3-aeb6-b8edf7903764

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/stock-investor-with-1-900-gain-breaks-long-silence-in-japan-1.2045946.amp.html

these chaps are definitely NOT buying MicroStrategy hands over fist in their tax-deferred accounts. Old Money vs. nouveux riche

@Luca Not related to the war, were you in Germany when this happened ? I am curious about how locals saw it. Surely this must have been an exercise of sovereignty. https://money.cnn.com/2017/08/23/investing/germany-gold-reserves-new-york-paris/index.html “In recent years, rumors and conspiracy theories circulated in Germany about its foreign gold reserves. Some fringe observers questioned whether they had been lost or otherwise compromised. The issue eventually spilled over into mainstream politics, and the German Federal Court of Auditors asked for an inspection of foreign gold reserves in 2012.”

Love her accent

As the saying goes: ”war takes a life of its own”. who / why / when it all started becomes all meaningless with passage of time. ———- Ex: It didn’t matter if the Iraqi started the war in 1980. By 1988 the notion of “winning” was no longer the same as it was in 1981. ———- Worse, scares of a long war, shapes the thinking of that generation that fought the war. Who later became decision makers. War may have ended but the politics and the hard feeling stays. It takes another full generation to get past that. Long past the attention timespan of an average Westerner, itching for his/her war from safety. One thing for sure, post-ceasefire in the Eastern Europe is the perfect ground for Kremlin to continue “its work”. There will be enough “grey zone” and holes to drive several An-225 through (not that the plane still exists). What will be an “exit valve” for Western powers after being too tired of playing game of thrones will be an open field for the Kremlin. After all, what happens on your border is actually a matter of national security. As it is for the Kremlin. The cycle will go on

If they are betting on Egypt reforming, this is a very bad bet. Egyptian economy is enslaved to its Army and the latter has deep entrenched business interests. Might as well call their army, a state within a state, with its pawn in everything including coffee shops

It is worse than that, after betting all on “making sure Russia cannot win, making sure Ukraine does not lose”, we might be living in a world in 2025 where there is a change in US administration and policy for better or worse. If it was matter of national security under Biden, how could “national security” shifts so suddenly due to an election. if there is a 180 degree a year from now, maybe it was not a matter of national security, but a nice to have.

For clarity, UK’ nuclear arsenal are close coordinated with that of US, both at the technical level and as well as planning purposes. Whereas the French nuclear forces is truly independent and sovereign. That French nuclear deterrence by extension de facto strengths NATO nuclear umbrella as well. But it is independent. Cannot say the same about UK. Source: The Economist

As of today 6.5%, and the balance 93% is all long stocks. No direct exposure to bonds.

your welcome !

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html “The war has absolutely “transformed” Russia’s economy, the NATO official said, from the post-Soviet period when oil was the leading sector. Now, defense is the largest sector of the Russian economy, and oil is paying for it. That creates some long-term imbalances that will likely be problematic for Russia, but for now, it’s working, the NATO official and Basham, the US European Command official, both said. “In the short term — say, the next 18 months or so — it may be unsophisticated, but it’s a durable economy,” the NATO official said.”

@Luca is German

outstanding

You complain too much about your Nord Stream pipeline getting a "makeover" A true NATOrian would give up his/her firstborn for the cause, no question asks !! no ifs, no buts Ask Not What NATO Can Do for You, Ask What YOU Can Do for NATO (hint: +2% GDP would be start)

We are safe. No worries FDR is currently giving a speech at the State of Union. Oh wait a minute Now it changed. Ronald Reagan is giving speech about “Berlin Wall”

For those interested, I call them today and confirmed with them there will be a virtual connection to the AGM. The link on the “news” section will be updated shortly.

Was listening to Lex interview with Tucker. It was really entertaining and funny.