Xerxes

thank you. Sounds interesting.

Gulf War III is highly unlikely. Removing Houthi launchers surgically is not going to anything close to that. That said, Riyadh has a say in what U.S. can or cannot do in the peninsula. it’s after all its backyard and went to war for it. Optics is everything. The Western-oriented ME Arab governments cannot back down on Gaza (even though they soon rather see Hamas wiped out), by explicitly giving green light for U.S. explicit involvement in Yemen. That would be an endorsement of the slaughterhouse that is Gaza.

Finished now two of the four books. “Nicholas and Alexandra” was as an easy read as “Peter the Great”. Despite being shorter than the 1,000 pages long “Peter the Great”. <= (highly recommend) Will read “Catherine the Great” sometimes in 2024. I bet it will be another awesome read like that of Peter.

The AI machine continues to send useless updates on an irrelevant equity portfolio

“BP has changed course of its tanker fleet. The flow of Spice is being challenged. The Spice must flow undisrupted through the straight Bab Al Mandab. The “rule-based post-1945 world order” must be preserved. Spice is life. Send in the Sardaukar. Send in Beast Rabban. Kill all the Fremens. Squeeeeez them hard.” ~ Guild Navigator

2023 2024

I always wondered if the fellow Bijan Khosrowshahi (Fairfax International) is part of the greater Khosrowshahi clan, with Dara and his uncle (FutureShop founder). There is barely any info on Bijan on line.

If we were to put the FFH story in terms of two or three phases, phase [A] would be the re-pricing of assets, and using their optionally when the cost of capital went up. That phase is over. They got themselves a “pipeline” of value creation (duration extended) for couple of years. Let call that upcoming couple of years as phase [B]. And then the next phase [C] starts. Previously they indicated their game plan is (1) move to credit as spread opens up (2) return capital when it is no longer needed to feed the insurance sub. Idea (1) is unlikely in the short term. But who knows maybe in two years time macro will be different and spread will blow out. Which means more likely it will be return of capital (2), if nothing else happens. there is even an unsaid option (3): which is to crystallize the unrealized gain in the bonds upfront by selling out but also forgoing the interest payments. But option (3) and (1) go hand in hand. They would sell government bonds only to go to riskier asset if value/risk reward is there.

It is the “pivot party” and everyone is welcome. that is what I heard on radio

Ok I guess now we need to wait 15-20 years for the Saudi to make an offer for the airport.

I should add that the 1990-91 invasion of Kuwait, there was more to it than just land grab because Kuwait at one time was part of Mesopotamia. And I don’t mean oil. Sure Media likes to over blow everything “…., and with Kuwait he will have control over xxxxx blah blah “ like a finale episode of Game of Throne ending in a cliffhanger. The reality is that coming out of Iran-Iraq War, Saddam had two major problems: Firstly, he had a massive wartime army that was structurally build up over eight years, that he couldn’t just unravel with a magic wand. Most of these men would have no jobs, massive unemployment would create problems for an already war ravaged economy. They needed to be kept busy. Secondly, both the Kingdom and the Kuwait owed him money (I don’t remember the details anymore). He was sustained largely by the Gulf powers money but there was more to it. He bled for them, without him the tsunami would have broken through the dam toppling monarchies in its wake. … Now I am getting overdramatic

Was never a L3 fan. Not because of any great insight on my part. Just that it never seemed to have a core franchise like others. So it always seemed like a distant sixth behind the A&D majors. With all the wars and defense concerns that are happening, these guys don’t seem to be able to leverage their tilt toward short-cycle heavy side of the business. In contrast to the long-cycle business tilted five majors. Interestingly, L3 was a minor subsidiary of Lockheed at some point in the 90s from which it was carved out. And one of the “L” in L3 stands for “Lehman Brothers”. Say WHAT ?!?

Yea. That is just the way the world is. No one is innocent. Yemen was to Saudi Arabia, what Ukraine was to Russia. A satellite state of a mighty overlord, who dared moving away from its master’s orbit. and the overlord didn’t like it. US took the opposite role in each conflict. That is just facts. There is no “Saudi Invaded Yemen” thread in this COBF with hundreds of pages scorning the Russians, is there ? Samething with Qatar. Though they were saved by their massive bounty in natural gas. Without their bounty it would have been another Saudi project. In any case, moving on. didn’t mean to poke.

The Houthi already paid the price multifold when US manufactured planes and bombs incinerated their livilhood, cities and schools. The cost that you are alluding to was frontloaded in 2015 and years after when Saudi invaded using American h/w. Only to leave with their tails between their legs, six years later. All the while with full support of US Government. my guess is most Westerners don’t really look at that part of history. History starts Now ! when they do things to us. Not when we do things to them.

IIRC Exxon had held the exact % of Imperial Oil for decades. Do not remember 80%.

On Guyana, nothing to see here moving on. So says my gut feeling. Maduro has more to lose distrupting the current arrangement with the US Government. There is a bit of info I have seen about some Wagner assets in Venezuela. I don’t know what all this means. Mostly noise I would wager. So don’t think this in anyway being close to Iraq-Kuwait or the Argentinian bid for the Falkland Islands. And even if it’s real how the execution would go about. It will come down to some royalties I think. Etc Unless you believe in conspiracy theories that the Hess folks knew that was coming, so sold out to Chevron.

Those of you with 7-figure in one name (an actual business). Remember the dogecoin millionaire. At least you are owning really businesses, where the size of the investment is just a function of your comfort. And not some crazy folktale coin. https://decrypt.co/153563/dogecoin-millionaire-bags-3-million-to-50000-dollars-has-not-lost-faith?amp=1

all good James.

as much as I like to be alongside him for his next venture, this specific vehicle sounds like a SPAC, where the price gets unhinged a bit. There will be a lot of front running here.

Congrats @Parsad I got to try to be more awesome like you

https://novelinvestor.com/asset-class-returns/

funny how sometimes there is a press release for completely inconsequential dollar amount invested. Other times there is nothing for very large investments.