Jaygo
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Everything posted by Jaygo
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Bought 10K of Visa and Google with proceeds from BRK sales. Brk is down to about 20% of my portfolio. $3250.00 of both TC Energy and Aritzia with my TFSA contribution on Thursday. I need to find some more money now. !!
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Hilarious.
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One more before signing off, my town has a minimum floor area requirement that is border line mac mansion. We basically yell from the roof tops " poor folk not allowed, you have to look rich to live here "
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Your point was better articulated than mine. Why in a capitalistic society are we artificially reducing supply. If Patek wants to limit the amount of watches produced than all the best to them, but at what point in time did politicians start to play the same games. I am not a proponent of unfettered construction but the municipalities are drunk on power and regulate everything to the detriment of the community and long term health of our society. I wanted to build a nanny suite over my detached two car garage. It was designed with a nice high ceiling gable roof, 630 sq ft with small bathroom with and kitchenette. Basically what I rented in college. Miles of bullshit to traverse, 3 separate conservation permits, a new septic permit plus the building permit were required. My total construction cost was an estimated $ 80,000.00. The permitting would have cost $ 15,000.00 or almost 20% of build cost. We ended up denied on the building permit since we had a gross floor area of over 25% in a rural area. Yes it would have provided another living quarters that our community desperately need but no, Its the evil foreigners.
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Never underestimate the incompetence of the liberal government. There are so many levers that could be pulled to help lower the costs of housing. They choose the one that says hey guys we’re world class, give us respect eh. Oh yeah but we’re also fucking idiots. Perhaps increase construction through reduced red tape, getting town folk building departments to fast track projects, build up our near north communities like Sudbury and Huntsville. Reduce the minimum lot size, dwelling size and allow densification. Most importantly temper immigration during this short window in time to allow our echo boomers to buy property and form families of native Canadians. Trust me we will need immigration in 10 years when our demographics really hurt, but right now you have a bulge of echo boomers and slightly younger all battling over shit hole housing over asking. How the people who regulate these things can’t see the demographic pinch brought on by aging in place elderly coinciding with echo boomers forming families. guess what, in a decade the elderly will be dead and dying and the echos will have procreated and bought housing with gut wrenching mortgages. Can’t we bring the 750k new Canadians then. But no, we will not allow supply to increase at the natural pace of capitalism. We will kill demand and at the same time make us look like we are backwoods yokels. This Won’t do shit to affordability anyway, Crippling interest rates that are too high for our economics will work though.
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Up about 8 percent. Better to be lucky than good since almost every “value investment” I made with critical thinking shit the bed. Oils, and high yield etfs saved the day. The stars were aritzia, tjx, cardinal energy, whitecap and cp rail the dogs were msge, joe, smartcentres, and Stanley black and decker. Woof the stalwarts and bulk of the portfolio were brk and the tobacco group that flowed divs and I traded around to close to 20 percent gain. Made out like a bandit on petrobras taking a whopping 40 percent gain and by absolute luck missing the ride back down. 2022 was a terrible year personally and below average professionally. I shed buckets of tears and mailed it in business wise. I was as much a dog as was SWK. I look forward to 23 to right some wrongs and get back on track. hopefully hit the million beaver buck mark at some point is the goal. Good luck to all in the new year
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That’s hilarious. Try reading “lonesome dove” or “for whom the bell tolls”. I guarantee you stick it out until the end. I drop half finished books all the time, I look at them like tv shows, I don’t want to waste my life. I have migrated to some classics and historical fiction and am much more inclined to finish them. I tend to learn a bit as well
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Yes i love the content, I dont have the links but the stuff on Belchem, the rales brothers, Detroit international and the guy who chose his annual reports over his wife stand apart as out of the ordinary and excellent reading. Ive been hunting for my own DIB since reading it. It probably lurks in the web like verisign or VISA and not steel and iron like DIB was. Those companies are huge so i'm less interested. Maybe we need a thread on toll roads of the world.
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That’s my hunch as well. H ah a been wrong once or twice though
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Yes imperial has been an amazing example of capital allocation. Certainly rivaling cnq. the CoVid prices of these companies were the equivalent of buying Florida real rate in the GFC. You could basically buy these companies for the capex of Kearl and horizon. Now the mines are built and decades of oil will be drawn out at pretty low cost. I remember seeing cnq at some 7 or 11 bucks and thinking. Wow, a little lower and I’m going all in. Well I did not, and ended up going in at 25 then more in the high 50’s. Still a good result but in smaller volume and not the life changer had my fear and greed not been so powerful.
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Here, here to Dealraker. I am all ears and love your posts, especially when talking about years past. Having not had many older family members to talk to and losing my closest source of wisdom, my dad. I would say the "ramblings" of an old man are just about the most valuable things a young man could listen to. Thank you Dealraker for sharing your experiences.
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This is a fun exercise but i see it as being a bit detrimental to our investing performance. We all like to think about the future but what we should look at is the past. What has stood the test of time. Booze, guns and bullets, ships, cigarettes, death, food, horses, pets, some railways, real estate, entertainment, transportation, sex and snake oil, the telephone, Banking, newspapers Not many companies in the above industries have stayed in their industry and sustained that long nor have they been outperformers. If you bought into acme buggy whips two decades before the auto your out of luck, Union railroad you may have gotten lucky but i'm not sure if the performance would be the best, bankrupt in 1893. Smith and wesson founded in 1852 has stood the test of time but id rather have held amazon for the past 20 years. ATT no thanks, some of the baby bells have crushed it though, what one did you pick? Wells Fargo has almost zeroed a few times even though banking is still around, lehman and a whole host gone forever. Coke has been a home run and it is one of very few who has stayed in one industry and never went bankrupt. If we want to buy and never sell for some kind of shits and giggles fine but i dont see how that is the best investment decision. I know for a fact that Buffett didn't buy blue chip stamps with 50 years in mind. He bought it and him and charlie used it to buy new stuff with a better future. Because it is a fun exercise I will play. 1. I say one one of the oil sands companies will be here in 50, we will burn every hydrocarbon available and that's a big pile of em. 100 plus years of reserves 2. I'm going to put Coke and Pepsi on here because people will still want shitty food and drinks no matter what. 3. Its kind of random but i will put big paint on the list. Sherwin, BM and PPG. Paint is a low luster industry but incredibly important to maintaining our infrastructure. The pace of technological change is slower than watching... nevermind. 4. Nutrien probably keeps its corporate structure but i dont think it will be a homerun. I would have said cigarettes, bayer and the chemical companies but i could see the wrong governments bankrupting these guys for their sins one day.
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What are you listening to ? (Music thread)
Jaygo replied to Spekulatius's topic in General Discussion
Nora Jones I dream of White Christmas and Alan Jackson Let it be Christmas on LP's -
More insults...well played
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You sir are an embarrassment. I hope in your lifetime you are not treated like shit and discriminated against. But many of your fellow Canadians were, myself included. The "truckers" had a lot of support from other human beings desperate for their liberty. This was evident by the thousands of people gathered on highway overpasses across the country cheering them on, and the the amount of money raised in support. The protests were peaceful and the extreme nature of the protest was justified since the government overreach was also extreme. Your calling other people hicks shows you are clueless, and all together completely unsympathetic to other peoples plight. My guess is you think you are shrewd, educated and all together on a higher level than a man who drives a truck for a living. Our government turned from reasonable to tyrants in a matter of months. Every Canadian, you included, had their rights taken away and you seem blind to that.
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Bought a little bit of ATD pre earnings to top up to a 5% holding in my RRSP. Winners win with good earnings but better return to shareholders. However some mildly scary line items of lower fuel volumes, read that as you wish. 45 shares of Tim Hortons parent RBI for my RRSP. Its a work from home is bullshit and everyone better get back to the office unless they want to be the ones getting layed off in the upcoming slowdown play. 50 shares of ATZ to keep my monthly fill. While knowing it will probably get a shit kicking at some point, recession bla bla bla. I do think it is prudent to keep adding slowly as the business expands. I'm convinced the girls buying these cloths are not economically sensitive and this thing will run for a long time. Joe Biden pausing tuition dept payments is a not insignificant tailwind I sold a touch of BRK to add to JOE ( didn't catch the low 30's a few weeks ago but 35 is close enough ) ( Gregmal combined with some random architecture article highlighting the beauty and livability of rosemary beach and seaside got me a little too excited to not average down) I sold some TJX after a 30% gain in a couple months, I still like it very much. However I just wanted to take my profits so I put the proceeds in to Amazon My gut tells me the market is ready to start rolling off again. I like to follow my gut in the least self destructive ways so for the first time ever, I bought a GIC, 30K at %5.08 that i get back in November 23. I did this as a bit of an experiment. I like the idea a will get a slug of cash back at a specified time. I have no idea of the future but i could see this as a way to have "cash" but not have to actually hold cash and make market decisions. Time will tell.
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The demonizing of the oil industry is so odd. It really shows how stupid people are. we have this miracle product that has risen our standard of living to 100 fold and people shit on it. I remember front page news when 500 geese died on a tailings pond in fort Mac. Sad to be sure, but on any given day people are out shooting ducks with birdshot and we call it sport. a funnier anecdote was a snowmobile weekend with some great friends. We’re sitting around a huge natural gas fireplace in my buddies 3 bedroom cabin perched by the lake. We’re all drinking spirits from around the world and my friend is going off on how bad fossil fuels are. This is an intelligent person generally but I laid into him with vigor. Dude we just burnt 200 bucks of premium in our sleds, drank wine from New Zealand and had steaks from Alberta, shrimp and veggies from who knows where. Now we’re toasty by a fire in the middle of winter 300 km from our currently heated homes. Yep these fossil fuels are terrible. he did not really see the irony in it all
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I’m only down about 6 percent from my all time high. Not too painful nor excited about much yet. Still buying bits of aritzia and tjx. Both doing really well. trading around brk with hits and misses. I was kind of hoping for a swoosh down with lots of fear and angst to get long some North American industrials and a tech index. Nothing yet. I am looking pretty hard at alimentation couche tard thinking they may follow the path of auto zone with significant repurchases now that the market told them the carrefour deal was a no go.
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Movies and TV shows (general recommendation thread)
Jaygo replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
I watched all quiet on the western front last night. It was very well done and nice to see the German side. Not that it needs to be said but war is a terrifying and ultimately shameful part of the human condition. One day humans will evolve to peace but it could very well be many millennia away. there is a scene where they reuse the fallen soldiers uniforms and the industrial scale of the repurposing really hits home. It gives the impression that boots and cloth had a greater value than the young lives ended. It is tragic stuff but I can’t look away. I have been captivated by war since I was in grade school but fully against it in every manner. my grandfather was a pow in France during the Spanish civil war. He spend two years living off rats and gruel while being beaten for his political views. He was a tall man but just over 100 lbs when sent home. Humans are unique in their cruelty. -
Which activities in life brings you the most fun?
Jaygo replied to Charlie's topic in General Discussion
1. Teaching and watching my kids learn (science, reading, gymnastics, math, languages, its all amazing) 2. playing donkey kong on Nintendo Wii and board games with my kids, my son is convinced i'm the best gamer in the world. 3. listening to music, drinking wine and making dinner with my wife and kids 4. I pretend that i'm a homesteader. My wife thinks i'm a lunatic but I try and keep our house heated with wood as late into the winter as i can. I love everything that goes along with it. Riding around on my Polaris, cutting up trees, splitting and stacking. the whole bit. I have a wood stove in my basement and in the living room on the main. 5. Drinking with with my buddies, it doesn't happen much anymore since we are all mid thirties and have kids and responsibilities. A night of drinking and talking shit really does soothe the soul. A couple weeks ago I went to a Jays game with my best friend of 31 years. We walked home to his place and hit a dozen bars on the way. Even delivered a round of joints to a homeless camp. I haven't laughed so hard in a long time. I would put intellectual pursuits, investing or reading good literature in there somewhere but if fun and joy is the question these top five are it. -
I read it this morning after a reco by Burry on twitter. If what he says is remotely accurate, is there anyone more geared up for massive capex than Mr Greg Able running our big beautiful baby! May hinder the buybacks though
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I don't mind at all. Thanks
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I follow SRU.u very closely. I live and work right around the largest project and see their properties everywhere. This is a major covered land play with a big distribution. I dont expect to shoot the lights out but see my investment as a very long term 10 % per year. Unless you have millions and want to go into development this is the best way to capitalize on the the flattest land with the fewest natural disasters that has abundant resources and will most likely be home to 40 or 50 million people in the next 50 years. Find me another juridiction like that and i'm all ears. The corridor from Windsor to Quebec city will slowly grow with a very high probability. Smart Centres is right there along for the ride. To me we have an inevitable thing going on in Ontario. We have a culture of acceptance and being the neighbor of the US we will attract as many immigrants as we as a country allow. Currently around 2% population growth for the whole country. Ontario has decent weather and more importantly lots of flat farmland that is cheap to develop on. Smart centres is the best way to play this long term via the stock market. The way i see it is we have this company that is keeping the lights on plus a bit of profit with the most un-cyclical company as their anchor tenant. Sure Walmart gets a great deal on rent but it draws in lots of traffic day after day, that brings smaller tenant to the table and that is where you get the margins from. So we have a major retail footprint in every single large town and medium city in Ontario and Quebec plus a few in the remaining provinces. 185 Centres in total. These towns are the epitome of suburban Canada and most of the centres are on major through fares and and slated for population growth. Smart centres has a few thousand acres ranging from farmland to properties valued at 5 million an acre that they are slowly densifying. They make money on retail leasing, land sales, development and often take a JV role in many of the new businesses such as retirement homes, self storage, hotels and apartments. I am not a financials guy and this is major 1st level thinking by the way.
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Atz.to prior to great earnings today for the taxable HDV high Div in the us for my rrsp and LEI etf in Canada for monthly dividends in the tfsa. if we get another 9 to 18 months of downward pressure I want to average in about 15000 per quarter roughly. Today felt good but am prepared to buy anything I bought today considerably lower. My bias is Canadian so if we have a housing crash up here all bets are off.