Castanza

Mike, NATO is like the kid who sticks a finger in your face and says “I’m not touching you!” Since the 90’s. The fact that you can’t admit the blunder over the last 30 years regarding NATO is sad. You’ve got to be able to see the pros and cons, wins, losses and mistakes. Gow do you reconcile your views with your boy Trump? He says he wants to end the war in “24hrs.” What exactly is your view in NATO long term? Have everyone join? Continue to pay billions to foreign countries with their hands out while ignoring stuff back here?

I spend tax dollars on it and it's not my business? Someone launches a nuke and I get drafted yet it's none of my business? Respectfully, your comment doesn't even make sense. If it's none of our business to have an opinion on the matter then why is it any of Europe's business to accept our money and weapons? I guess by your standards I should never hear a European on here mention American politics then? Lastly, we are a Constitutional Republic with representative democracy. Opinions of the citizens are expected. This isn't "democracy" in the pure sense.

Georgia was attacked immediately upon trying to join NATO. Russia literally said that. Ukraine was attacked in 2014 by being NATO is everything but name. Russia also said that.

Mike, You said NATO has brought peace to Europe for 70 years. I just listed dozens of conflicts many of which involved NATO countries. Rest your case from what? Tell me how NATO has brought peace to Europe.... You're the one claiming it has been a raging success when the evidence points to the contrary. Your claim is dismantled by a 2 second internet search. Ukraine is being attacked. They are a proxy NATO country. The US has been supporting them since the mid 2000's with both trainings and defense. They are everything NATO except in title. I don't think there has been a more telegraphed conflict in the history of humanity than this Ukrainian crisis. American and Western hubris brought this on. Every credible Cold War expert said NATO expansion was a bad idea. from the 90's on NATO went from being primarily defensive to offensive. That is the problem.

Yet NATO has lead to this exact conflict.....probably the greatest threat of nuclear war the world has come to. 70 years is not a long time in the context of history to judge something as a success or failure. But the fact remains that people have been shouting about this exact outcome since the end of the Cold War and here we are, right on schedule. What exactly do you consider a success? Plenty of conflicts in Europe. Many of the worse ones are directly related to NATO expansion. Too many people cannot think about conflicts with an unbiased opinion. Park some long range missiles backed by Russia in Vancouver pointed at Seattle, Portland, and Denver and what would the US response be? We would turn Vancouver to glass in 24hrs. 1944–1956 Guerrilla war in the Baltic states 1945–1949 Greek Civil War 1946–1948 Corfu Channel incident 1947–1962 Romanian anti-communist resistance movement 1953 Uprising in East Germany 1955-1959 Cyprus Emergency 1956 Uprising in Poznań 1956 Hungarian Revolution 1956–1962 Operation Harvest 1958 First Cod War 1959–2011 Basque conflict 1967 Greek coup d'état 1968 Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia 1968–1998 The Troubles 1970–1984 Unrest in Italy 1972–1973 Second Cod War 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus 1974 Carnation Revolution 1975 Coup of 25 November 1975 1975–1976 Third Cod War 1976–2016 Corsican conflict 1981 Spanish coup d'état attempt 1986 Evros River incident 1988-1994 First Nagorno-Karabakh War 1989 Romanian Revolution 1990–1991 Soviet attacks on Lithuanian border posts 1990 Transnistria conflict 1990–1992 Transnistria War 1991 January Events 1991 The Barricades 1990 Log Revolution 1991–2001 Yugoslav Wars 1991 Ten-Day War 1991–1995 Croatian War of Independence 1992–1995 Bosnian War 1992–1994 Croat–Bosniak War 1998–1999 Kosovo War 1999–2001 Insurgency in the Preševo Valley 2001 2001 insurgency in Macedonia 1991–1992 Georgian war against Russo-Ossetian alliance 1991–1993 Georgian Civil War 1992 East Prigorodny Conflict 1992–1993 War in Abkhazia 1993 1993 Cherbourg incident 1993 1993 Russian constitutional crisis 1995–1996 Imia/Kardak military crisis 1997–1998 Cyprus Missile Crisis 1997 Albanian civil war of 1997 1997–present Dissident Irish Republican campaign 1998 Six-Day War of Abkhazia 2001 Georgia, Kodori crisis 2001 Insurgency in the Republic of Macedonia 2004–2013 Unrest in Kosovo 2004 2004 unrest in Kosovo 2008 2008 unrest in Kosovo 2011–2013 North Kosovo crisis 2004 Georgia, Adjara crisis 2004 Georgia, South Ossetia clashes 2006 Georgia, Kodori crisis 2008 Russo-Georgian war 2014–present Russo-Ukrainian War (outline) 2014 Pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine 2014–present Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation 2014–present Russo-Ukrainian War 2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis 2022–present Russian invasion of Ukraine 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh war

Honestly this seems like another mistake imo. This further escalates tensions that initially caused this whole conflict to begin with. NATO expansion in the 90's was unchecked because for the first time the US was the lone Superpower. Much like a government needs internal checks and balances, so to do governments at the geopolitical level. It has led to 750 military bases in 80+ counties. Wars that had no justification. See Wesley Clark interview (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Knt3rKTqCk ). Our last 5 Presidents are war criminals going by their own standards of foreign leaders. Imagine if the War on Drugs was fought in the same way Obama and Bush took out targets in the Middle East. Example: The meth dealer who is a suspected killer is located in this house. Let us send in a drone strike and blow up the whole block killing a few dozen innocent individuals. But hey! One less dealer! There were MANY smart people in the government who disagreed with the expansion of NATO. Three defense secretaries: Robert McNamara, Robert Gates (under Bush & Obama), William Perry (under Clinton) were all vehemently opposed to NATO Expansion. Even George Kennon the guy who invented the Containment Strategy and won the Cold War said NATO expansion post-Cold War was a massive mistake. Here is a 1998 interview he did where hey lays out exactly what would happen with Russia and NATO expansion: https://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/02/opinion/foreign-affairs-now-a-word-from-x.html NOBODY wanted to listen to the smart people in the room. And the World/Ukraine is paying for it now. NATO expansion and the potential negative effects of it were being discussed many times. If you look up "Nyet means Nyet" you can read a leaked document between Burns and Condoleezza Rice. Three months later Georgia and Russia go to war after NATO includes them against their own warnings. There are people in the business of making war; and making war is what they do. NATO has been anything but a defensive alliance since the 90's. It's been led by countries which have started 7 wars and decimated multiple countries caused millions of deaths all in 30 years. Look at Libya. Removing Ghaddafi has led to open air slave markets there today. You think those people are better off now? Can anyone point me to a good example of the US or the "West" removing leadership in a foreign country which then lead to better leadership? Yeah, WWII with Hitler but that was a different type of event (contrary to what some on here might say). Ultimately Hitler, Lenin and Stalin were all products of regime changes from WWI. Look at the countless countries int he Middle East and South America we have fucked with. Take out Putin and there is NO guarantee that a worse leader does not take his place. Then what? Do we want a country like Russia turning into a Libya? Where it’s run by the strongest war lord? Sounds like a recipe for Russian Terrorism which I guarantee you will be far worse than Al Qaeda. America screwed up when it decided to adopt the idea that world leaders need to meet our expectations of acceptable governance. Putin is a shitbag but he is also not the worst there has been in Russia. Americans are so far removed from war I don’t think most people can think about it in terms that make it feel real. The West is desensitized to it. They just go out, buy their latte, go to the ball game, continue to book their yearly vacations thinking nothing bad will ever happen to the US. It's mind boggling to me that Americans have their own heads so far up their own asses that they think nothing bad will or could ever happen to us. They go on vacations to Rome, Egypt, Peru and see these once great empires and it never dawns on them that one day people could be going on vacation and looking at the former White House and Monuments in D.C. in all their glory. America has become a nation of decadence and laziness over the last 40 years. There is something that prevents people from viewing the time they live in against that of history. It’s a mental block that most people have and I think it leads to poor decision making. It is ironic that the majority of people against the war in Ukraine are the ones who actually went and fought in a mostly useless war. They have seen the futility and outcome of these crusades. We've been the benefactor of having the best military and technology to maintain that superpower position. But we are playing with fire right now in this Ukrainian conflict. If this war is so important to Americas long term strategic situation/freedom then why are we not on the ground? Because it isn't and because that would push the needle of nuclear war a little too far into the red. But hey, lets see how far we can push that needle without putting boots on the ground. Ukrainians are pawns in an unnecessary proxy was that was avoidable. We don't give a shit about them.

VTS

Gear Energy talked about tax pools in their recent monthly report. https://gearenergy.com/updates/

Interesting will check that out

Curious what you’ve looked at in Italy? Hard to look past the terrible demographic and economic trends in that country. France, UK, and Germany all had some interesting plays during the covid crisis. Particularly in the REIT/property markets, but haven’t looked any further since.

That's literally what every "expert" said prior to the invasion of Ukraine. Nobody thought it would happen because it was absurd and didn't make sense to do. Yet here we are. I mean, China took over Hong Kong just a few year ago. I think it's a fools errand to try to take a stance on what will or won't happen. The world is absurd and to quote Bill Burr "It's run by guiltless psychopaths." At this point it could be either

The hardest thing to separate right now is China and the US as global super powers. Western media wants to portray China as pure evil because it’s all we can do to cling to the pant leg of power and global influence. China wants to portray itself as better and more open than it is to portray to the world that it can assume that role responsibly. Right now China is winning that battle. The alliances continue to grow in the East. Most Americans are too prideful to admit this power shift. America is flat footed and still looking back at the post WWII era of power status as if that still exists. The government in this country is basically stagnant and non-functioning. Thus providing no direction, no unity.

The most important paragraph from that Dalio letter. The best company in the world can go downhill quickly under poor leadership with bad culture. Chinese and American Relations with Other Countries While there is a wide range of views among various countries’ leaders, there is a growing belief among Chinese and many other countries’ leaders that the United States is in decline, plagued with domestic issues. They believe that for this reason the US is no longer adequately guiding the world order, and, as a result of this void, the world is headed for a period of great disorder. There is a strong belief that the world is desperately in need of stronger multilateral 1) leadership, 2) systems, and 3) institutions, and that China is very likely to play a leading role in helping to provide these, but that disorder will likely precede a more peaceful new world order.

@John Hjorth thanks for sharing your perspective. I think what gets missed in the media is the lack of support or maybe better worded different mental framework (USA citizens vs EU citizens) that is being used to approach this conflict. I work with a lot of Europeans and the opinions they have are very different from my American colleagues. End of the day this isn’t an easy situation to deal with. I just think zooming out helps. If human intentions and mindsets don’t change in the nuclear age our luck will eventually run out. We’ve had substantial wars almost every 15-20 years since the “Enlightenment.” Interesting times. @Spekulatius I still think the best framework to view the war is what caused it? I’d say a high degree of NATO expansion pushed the limits of what is and is not acceptable. So I think root cause analysis will be important moving forward if negotiations are sought. NATO was good in the short term for members, but look at the alliances being formed over the last 2 years among non-members. It’s forcing global tribalism to a level that hasn’t been seen in a long time. It’s a whole new world out there and NATO has failed to keep the peace. NATO members have failed to play their part. Peace in Europe and Asia depends on the US. Over 100 adjacent countries to conflict zones and the island 4K miles away is the one responsible for fixing issues it doesn’t understand culturally or historically? I think it’s an absurd endeavor to maintain. We can’t keep saying “we’ll adjust after this one.”

Why does everyone have such a hard-on for WWII comparisons or more accurately Hitler comparisons? It’s not even in the same league at this point. Ukraine is not Czechoslovakia and Putin is not Hitler. You’re comparing apples or oranges and a t-ball player to a Major Leaguer. I swear it’s like the pro war people want Putin to push that button. People here in the US are so sheltered from war. Let’s do a nationwide poll: 1. Do you support the war in Ukraine 2. Do you support US troops in Ukraine? If you’ve answered YES to 1 but not 2, congratulations you just entered the draft. If you answered YES to 1 & 2 congratulations you ship out for basic training in two weeks.

It is still mind boggling to me that the West is not collectively pushing for peace negotiations. the US and the West can’t continue to get in nuclear standoffs over every single border dispute for countries who’s borders have been ever changing over the last 75 years. Zoom out and think about this war and the position of the West from a 30,000 foot view with a humanity based perspective. There were individuals who fought in the US Civil War that lived long enough to see the testing of Ivy Mike in the Pacific. If you put the Civil War on the event timeline of human history you can basically conclude that it was almost a nuclear war. We got lucky by a factor of nothing on the timeline of human history. The difference between muskets or atomic bombs being used was a blink of an eye on the timescale. The US and the West should be doing everything in their power to prevent standoffs like this now and in the future. It’s a fools errand and luck will eventually run out.

Morning Brew Daily Upside both reasonably good daily email services. Short sweet to the point

Rates are down since the 90's but the rate at which they increased over the past 5 years is I believe what most are worried about. Couldn't find any drug stats on NYPD website. Different dynamics today with the current street drugs and homeless population. https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/stats.page Raw Data chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/historical-crime-data/misdemeanor-offenses-2000-2022.pdf chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/historical-crime-data/seven-major-felony-offenses-2000-2022.pdf chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/historical-crime-data/non-seven-major-felony-offenses-2000-2022.pdf

LOL you're making excuses for this? Really? Pretty well documented that violent and non-violent crime is up like 30-50% since 2020 in most big cities. I understand there is crime everywhere and that the vast majority of people are law abiding. That doesn't account for the outlier events we have been seeing over the past 2 years. Continue to defund the police, hand out drugs, reduce jail time, fines, bail and this will continue to get worse. What's the ratio here that makes you feel comfortable? Is it 10:1? Old man sitting on a park bench feeding the Pigeons =/= 1 Target being looted Kid giving up his bus seat for a pregnant woman =/= 1 Walmart being looted ___________________ Throw in all the other stuff like lack of resources for the homeless or ways to mitigate it. Rent control, reduced landlord rights, wasted tax money on frivolous community pursuits and it's a decent recipe to get people to leave. Can't say it's the worst it's ever been though. Maybe just different. But perception is more easily spread today due to technology/media and that really is all that matters. Perception has never been more important in society than today.

Back to the city stuff. A society with zero consequences. How exactly does this not drive people out?

Well if you want to fix shootings in this country you address the things that have changed and lead to the issues over time. Since Kennedy the mental institutions have gone the way of the Dodo. Instead of reforming them they simply got rid of them. Depression, anxiety, suicides, prescription drug use, street drug use all are at or near all time highs and way above other areas in the world. Im not 100% opposed to some type of gun reform or licensure system, but it needs to be done correctly and at the end of the day I don’t think it’s going to be the most fruitful course of action as it’s a bandaid solution to an underlying issue. - Mental health issues - Drug and gang related issues Sebastian Junger has some really interesting work in these areas. Questions and observations he makes. - lots of countries have lots of guns - lots of countries have crazy people - most of the senseless mass shootings happen in Middle class areas. They don’t happen in inner cities - suburban areas are where people can most easily isolate themselves. There is often less communal activities outside of Church. - depression and anxiety and prescription drug use grow in tandem WITH and increase in wealth. - technology and social media have drastically increased the ability to isolate and as a result the increase in depression/anxiety and use of prescription drugs Its a really interesting observation that literally the American Dream type life is where you’re most at risk for a mass shooting. But you’re probably less likely to get mugged going to the store or to experience other forms of crime.

How are they different issues? The same people doing the drag story time with kids are the same ones out in the weekends saying we need to let kids get gender affirming surgery without the parents consent. Washington Stage just passed bill 5599 that gives parents no recourse if their kid wants to run off and get gender affirming surgery. Who exactly do you think is pushing these ideas. Your view of the situation in scope is about the same as an ostrich with its head in the sand. You said you would take your kids to drag story time. Great…are you also taking your kids to strip clubs? Are you good with local ministers coming in to school to have Bible story time with kids? Something tells m you’re not. Maybe we should bring in some crack heads and they can demonstrate how to properly pack a crack pipe and then blow the smoke up someones ass. There ARE things in society that are NOT appropriate for children. Sexual material is most definitely one. Drag is sexual in nature. The majority of the issue is the dishonesty around the facts. And the forced/shady nature of discussion, much of which is happening without parents consent. I pay taxes for public school and I have a stake in knowing that the school is teaching proven science and facts and that the teachers/counselors working there aren’t “grooming” my child and the. Telling them to not tell their parents. Replace this trans ideology sharing in the above example with say drugs. If teachers were telling kids to “explore” drugs without actually giving them any, but showing them all the resources they need to do them and acquire them; and then telling them to not say anything to your parents would you not be outraged? It shouldn’t be happening for ANY topic outside of the school curriculum that is supposed to be public knowledge.

Very good post and I agree with everything you said. Most people are middle of the road and just want some damn normalcy from our leaders. Instead we get stuff like this which was just passed in Washington State yesterday. It gives the state the right to void parental consent. I don’t like the extreme on either end. Regarding gun culture I cannot stand the “gun bro” culture. I think it does a disservice to the tool and society. If you want guns, great own them but respect them for the tool they are and quit trying to act like Billy Badass. Most of the problems we have in society right now are propagated by the vocal minority in both ends of the spectrum. The stuff Greg had to deal with at a restaurant is just as ridiculous. Keep your business to yourself. If someone wants to do something they will seek it out in their own. I don’t see the political atmosphere getting any better in the US anytime soon. It’s been decades since we had a good leader. Now we have hypocritical insider traders, people with fake accents, clearly mentally unstable individuals in offices all over from both parties. As Richard and Bluegold said above it’s a political paradox and nobody good will ever run. I agree 1000% with you on social media. Yeah there is some good that’s come from it, but by and large I think it’s been one big negative for society.

I’m sure this will help clean up the streets of NYC

Sports stadiums are up there too