nwoodman

This. I want any forced decision making deferred as long as possible. The current price +/- 10%, growing around 1% per month , for the next 10 years or so, is fine. If it turns out to be 0.25%/week even better.

@Luca Spectacular. Looking to head to Japan next season for some skiing

Market is enjoying the Quess demerger announcement https://bnnbreaking.com/finance-nav/quess-corp-announces-strategic-demerger-a-tripartite-leap-forward

Thanks, I need to do a side-by-side comparison with UMG. Sony's not cheap, but I consider it well-run. It's only a 2% position for me, but set-and-forget. I think they are executing well despite all the handwringing that goes on in the gaming division, a lot of which is misreporting. Take Helldivers 2, for instance; that's a PC/PS5 release that's currently going absolutely ballistic and hopefully alleviating some of the cynicism about live service games. While not my bag, if people are going to game, I think it is better to do it with your mates and have a laugh. Helldivers 2 looks like a hoot

@SafetyinNumbers seems to be the resident expert here. However from what I can gather it is in the hands of the committee because as, as you rightly point out, they meet the following criteria: 1. Market Cap 2. Liquidity and Trading Volume other things that will be considered by the committee are 3. Public Float 4. Financial Health 5. Sector and Industry Representation 6. Compliance and Governance Not sure how the Muddy Water shenanigans affects the process, it shouldn’t but who knows. I will say one thing though the TSX60 has been a real laggard. The demand from Index inclusion would make ideal conditions for unwinding the TRS position.

Discussion on BNN regarding results and the CC. I'm not sure who the grey-haired gentleman is and he is a bit waffly for my money. However, the upshot is a message of 1. They've been here before and survived. 2. Stellar results. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/fairfax-operating-income-jumps~2868708 and another one I think this coverage has been gold.

Just worked my way thru the Q4 23 conference call. Jen Allen did a good job of addressing the MW allegations. Lots of good information but my top four responses were as follows: 1. Forward Guidance Prem Watsa “Now as I’ve said for the last number of quarters, the most important point I can make for you is to repeat what I’ve said in the past - for the second time in our 38-year history, I can say to you, we expect - there is of course no guarantees - sustainable operating income of $4 billion, operating income consisting of $2 billion-plus from interest and dividend income, $1.2 billion from underwriting profit with normalized catastrophe losses, and $750 million from associates and non-insurance companies. This works out to over $125 per share after interest expenses, overhead and taxes. Of course, fluctuations in stock and bond prices will be on top of that, and these fluctuations only really matter over the long term.’ 2. Hard Market and Underwriting Discipline Peter Clarke “Sure, thanks Tom. I guess to address the Odyssey question first, in the fourth quarter Odyssey non-renewed a large residential property quota share, around $340 million of unearned premium they returned to the client, and that reduced their premium in the fourth quarter. But for us, it just shows the discipline Odyssey has and the focus on underwriting profit, and for us, that’s a great thing. They wrote that quota share for about two years. In their mind, the margins weren’t there going forward and they took the action necessary, so that was very good. On the Brit side, we mentioned in prior quarters that they were reducing their catastrophe exposure, re-balancing it, and you continue to see that coming through the top line in the premium. A lot of the exposure they’re dropping is in the binder business, which takes a little longer to run off, and that’s why you’ve seen it come through a number of quarters. On the pricing side, on the reinsurance side, we’re still seeing for most of our companies double-digit pricing, mainly on the property side, and then in insurance, mid-single digit price increases with the exception, as you highlighted, D&O and cyber, which had a lot of price increases over the last number of years, has been slowing down and actually reducing, so we haven’t been growing in those lines as much.” 3. Reserve Releases Peter Clarke “I think our companies are still being very prudent on the hard market years - 2020, 2021, 2022, holding back from a lot of the favorable development that they’re seeing in those lines and just waiting that through to see how it ultimately plays out. We’re very focused on the effects of inflation and claims inflation in particular, so--but generally speaking, we think our reserves are in a very good position and we’re hoping going forward will benefit us.’ 4.Associate income in particular Atlas/Poseidon Prem Watsa “By the way, our associate income, Atlas has provided the disclosure because of the new build program before they were taken private. They gave you a forecast - $300 million going to $600 million by 2025, and as of today, we still think that forecast is appropriate. When you put all of that together, we look at that operating income of $4 billion as a pretty conservative number.” 10,000m view We are close to completing the share price regression to the mean phase. I think the baseline from here is at least 12% CAGR. We can argue what the upside can be but that will take care of itself.

Good account. NYSE delisting was 2009 around the same time that they stole ORH from some of us https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/globe-investor/fairfax-financial-delisting-shares-from-nyse/article4215526/

Many thanks . Great results and the increase in duration is just brilliant. When it comes to Bonds these guys really are Masters of the Universe. It is a treat to watch the balance sheet get stronger quarter by quarter.

@valuesource any chance you can delete your post. There are links to the release no need to cut and paste the whole thing and it makes the flow of this thread very distracting. Thanks in advance

A sucker for their music business.

6758.T SONY

I believe MINT broke this news. It is unconfirmed IRDAI approval as far as I can tell. Sounds promising, hopefully Fairfax confirms tonight or on the CC as I couldn’t find anything on the IRDAI website….yet

That pretty much encapsulates the Atlas thesis - long term meat and potatoes vs short term sugar hit. A good reminder of how patient capital (strong hands) could make a difference to this industry

Sounds promising, although “these two people” have quite the reputation. Hopefully the IRDAI provides confirmation shortly

Stating the obvious but the best outcome below IV is to do both.

Good article in the WSJ today on the One Child Policy. How China Miscalculated Its Way to a Baby Bust "As the decades passed, a growing number of demographers and economists called out the policy as outdated and flawed. China’s fertility rate would have gone down on its own as life expectancies rose and economic conditions improved, they say. One factor missing from Song’s population math was human behavior. The government’s sometimes brutal enforcement, including forced abortions and sterilizations, as well as decadeslong propaganda about the benefits of having a small family, left a lasting one-child mindset. The modeling also failed to take into account the traditional preference for sons. If couples could only have one child, they would prefer to have a boy. Young women are now at the core of China’s demographic dilemma. They are increasingly reluctant to have children—and there are fewer of them every year. Greenhalgh, the Harvard anthropologist, said that the women growing up under the one-child policy were raised in line with Beijing’s goals of a smaller but what it called “higher-quality” population: well-educated, savvy and independent. “These women are not going to accept going back to the family to be housewives,” she said. Apart from cultural and social changes, Song’s model hadn’t taken into account economic forces, such as the enormous migration flows to cities unleashed by Deng’s reforms, which played a bigger role than anyone had imagined in pushing down fertility rates, researchers have said." “All of China’s population policies for decades have been based on erroneous projections,” Yi said. “China’s demographic crisis is beyond the imagination of Chinese officials and the international community.”

Good article, and by Seeking Alpha standards, extremely good. The source table for the Lloyds syndicates can be found here https://www.atlas-mag.net/en/article/ranking-of-top-20-lloyd-s-syndicates-in-2017 The site is quite helpful as below the table there is a link to prior years for a quick comparison. Given the hysteria around AI I really appreciate that Fairfax aren’t spruiking Ki. It is an exciting development nonetheless.

https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-responds-further-to-short-seller-report/ To the best of our knowledge, Muddy Waters has never attended our conference calls and neverasked a question, called us or written to us, but instead went to CNBC during our quiet period with these one-sided, ill-informed allegations and insinuations in a transparent attempt to profit by short selling our stock. They may have successfully done this with other companies, but they have woefully misjudged the strength of Fairfax’s financials and prospects and we are confident the marketplace will reflect our strong fundamentals. Prem Watsa, Chairman and CEO of Fairfax, commented: “We are neither Berkshire Hathaway, nor GE, as Muddy Waters suggests. We are Fairfax, a strong and enduring company built over 38 years, committed to integrity, customer service, employee welfare and the communities we operate in. We have a unique Fair and Friendly culture throughout our organization. We strive to provide excellent returns to shareholders, and are committed to providing full disclosure in our annual report, highlighting both our pluses and minuses.

Thanks @glider3834, very helpful. The Excor black box has always been a bit of enigma with price discovery being flakey via OTC. It’s obviously very dependent on the oil price in terms of short term earnings and reserves longer term. I have never really understood the cloak and dagger around obtaining financials.

Love them or hate them, it matters to the ratings agencies. The upgrades we saw in 2023 are at odds with the MW thesis as will be the upgrades some of us are expecting this year.

Typically on large caps the maintenance requirement is 30%, but you would need to confirm. They are advising you that for Fairfax they are now only willing to do 50% if it is a “concentrated position”. The key questions are 1. What is the normal margin requirement for IB? Typically this varies by market cap. 2. What constitutes a concentrated position? It is very poorly worded.

I have always found musical discovery so much better on Spotify than Apple Music. However for those that like melodic house and electronic I rate this playlist updated weekly from Apple. This week’s set has some crackers. Probably showing my age but some great Ambient House vibes. THE UNDERGROUND If your idea of an amazing night out is a black-box room with sweaty walls, one light bulb, a banging system and a sign on the door that reads “no phones or photography allowed,” then this set is for you. Indulge in an open-minded mix of avant-garde house, techno and other forms of dance music that fall comfortably, intoxicatingly left of centre. We update this playlist every week. If you like a track, add it to your library Link

@Luca that's interesting. Rather than fill up this thread would you mind pm’ing me the full text, I wouldn’t mind reading it in its entirety