lnofeisone

OpSec is very good on both Israeli and Hezb side. You can find some telegram videos beyond what IDF releases but videos are few. There are some X accounts that are trying to keep track of losses through obits and the latest count was something like 20 IDF and 400 Hezb fighters. I'm very curious because Hezb is missing a lot of very important middle management commanders and has disrupted comms network. I think you are right; it'll probably go well into 2025, but I am encouraged by the moves West is slowly pushing the likes of Joseph Aoun for the Lebanese presidency and the potential expulsion of Hezb.

The article seems to have internal inconsistencies. If fed banks can make money from thin air, they should just make some money and buy more assets with higher rates to offset what they have to pay banks. Fed banks aren't going to have run on the bank so they are sitting on MTM losses but who cares? I also don't understand what the author is trying to convey or what conclusions we should be drawing other than "Here is some cool insight into the plumbing of the financial system."

I'll post my notes in the NEP thread this weekend.

I didn't mean to quote you directly. This was more of a comment on parallels between TLN and NEP. My thesis is that NEP will benefit from the same themes TLN (and the entire utility sector)and NEP will track TLN but few years behind (and no BK, of course).

This is why I am not very worried about NEP.

I didn't do it with OXY. I did this trade with CVE.

The other implied point that's worth mentioning is testing. Drug batches get tested for quality, correctness, etc. These processes go out of the window with these small batches as tests would require specialized equipment and cost a lot.

Exactly. When it comes to making drugs, having the right ingredients is only half of the equation. The other half is the process pathway. If you get the process pathway wrong you can get the exact same molecule but with different chirality. Think of it as your hands, 5 fingers, but total images are not exactly the same, and there is nothing you can do rotation-wise to make the two look exactly the same. The problem is that taking the isomer of the chiral drug (wrong orientation) can have differences in biological interaction - thinking pharmacology, pharmacokinetics, and metabolism. It gets scary very quickly. If you are interested, look up the thalidomide scandal from the 1960s.

Thanks for sharing. This is very fascinating. Of course, it is very illegal on so many levels, but if someone has no insurance, unfortunately, this is a path. I think there might be an illegal market but I don't think this will be the future of medicine. Pirating a movie vs. taking an ad-hoc manufactured pill has very different risk profiles.

The situation in Israel is extremely nuanced. The nation is mourning the 6 hostages who were murdered, and the strikes are a direct consequence of that. Israelis want to be left alone, but they also realize that Hamas and Gaza have been left alone for a long time, and now they are left dealing with this mess. Hamas is crippled. Without Philadelphi, they got no way to really import weapons. I doubt Israel will give that up. Israel also appointed a new general to oversee Gaza. This news flew under the radar and was couched as "this was planned," but it is starting to look like Israel is getting ready for a long-term occupation until some form of coalition gov't takes over. I agree that if you roll dice long enough, eventually you'll lose. That was Israel Hizb war of 2006. This time, Israel is doing something very different. Israel is still held back by the US, UN, and very hypocritical opinions of other nations but this time they are indignant and are pushing forward. Nonsense like "All eyes on Rafah" and "No to having Israeli troops on Philadelphi" is no longer in play. Hamas doesn't have enough space, people, ways to import things to make it a combinatorics problem like Afghanistan was for USSR or the US. At this point, Israel just needs to keep choking Hamas, and eventually, they will break.

Love to hear it. We are headed there during Thanksgiving. Hoping for good weather and lots of pool time for the kids.

Lidl struggled mightily in mid-markets. I'm thinking Charlottesville and Richmond, VA where I recall them wanting to close stores. I am skeptical they can enter the Boondocks, WV, and take over DG's business. Aldi—maybe, but the way I see them enter new markets is by acquiring what is already familiar to people (Winn-Dixie). I think if you know Lild or Aldi, you go there because they are reasonably good value to consumers. If you don't know them then DG, TGT, and WMT is where you go. This is my East Coast biased observation.

Sold OXY puts and bought OXY calls.

I've been tracking this one closely. I think Hamas, as an organization, is largely incapacitated. They have the people but they don't have the weapons. Their leader got assassinated on foreign soil, and all they could do was shoot 10 rockets. Israel's control of Philadelphi corridor has cut off all major weapon flows (I love the hypocrisy of not looking at Egypt as a responsible party here). This is why Israel wants to stay at Philadelphi and it probably makes sense. Same with Netzarim. I do think Hamas brought a lot of pain onto Gazans. The civilians are fatigued and there isn't really an end. Israel won't agree to two-state solution, and two-state solution is a pre-condition to a lot of arab/US support. So an impasse for sure. As far as Hamas goes, their time is near the end. If Israel keeps its presence at Philadelphi, and Netzarim and moves the border into Gaza, it will be viewed as shameful by the average Gazan. Shame brought by Hamas. Hamas fighters will likely dissolve into the populace and join in with other organizations. The game of whack-a-mole continues.

How would you even go about assessing the different segments (low margin, high volume vs. high margin, low volume, etc.). We are in the middle of building an apartment in our basement. We are at about the right stage to get the paint in. I prefer BM but mostly because we know the store manager and we have a good relationship. I could ask our contractor tomorrow however the only thing I heard him complain about is the cost of SSD's bracket and how many more he now has to buy because of code changes due to FL building collapse.

20% isn't sufficient for a jump IMO. My wife is a US Fed. Her package of benefits after 10 years of service is amazing. Gets even better after 20 years. It includes health insurance at the Federal rate for her and her spouse (even if we get a divorce, but I can't remarry until 55...wild rules). Pension. TSP with a reasonably good match. Job security. I've seen people get on the boards through insane networking and volunteering at organizations OR if they already knew someone and had a status (e.g., C-suite). Being in compliance is hard way to get to a board seat. Maybe Wells Fargo would need someone with that perspective.

I don't have a hard and fast rule on how far out or how high on the price. I would usually look at industry average metrics, corporate average metrics and get calls around the lower average of the two. This could mean 20% out or it could mean 100% out. I also look for some options mispricing. Higher up you go on price, the more mispricing (perceived?) you can find. I also look for catalysts/events to determine how far out to go. So it can be months out options or LEAPs. For example, and I know it's not a great performance example, with VET, I bought calls for around the time I estimated they would hit their debt goals and start purchasing stock. Unfortunately market isn't agreeing with me on VET and those calls expired worthless.

My more active account and Roth IRA is roughly 70% options and warrants and 30% equity. This balances out my 401k which has limited fund selection and forced 25% bond allocation that I can't change. With SBUX, I sold $100 puts. A few of them got put on me, but most didn't. It works sometimes and doesn't work other times (e.g., my INTC puts tanked, and I sold out recently). I can't recall all for the past 5 years but some notable winners were Jackson Financial, PGN, CLMT (BG and I had a long exchange about it when it was $3) and a bunch of MLPs that got traded down a lot. I have ET at cost basis of $0. SHLX when it was bought out and there was some serious mispricing. Some losers here are VET (I'm down roughly 40% excluding all the calls I've been selling against it) which I've been holding for about 3 years now and didn't take the opportunity to sell. Lost a bit on Fannie court ruling. Made up for it in ATVI ruling. My current holdings are very concentrated across V (5%), ROL (5%), AOS (5%), CNC (5%), MSCI (5%), HIFS (5%), CPNG(5%), VET (10%), NEP (10%), EW (15%), HSY (15%, options only). Then I have 30+ other small potato things (OLN, NNI, SKYH warrants, CVE warrants, etc.). Variety of option strategies but typically I sell deep ITM puts and buy further out OTM calls. Cash from sales of ITM puts goes into EDV.

Sold SBUX on this funny pop and rotated into V.

We are staying in Cancun, so east coast. We went to a destination wedding there and really liked the ease of doing things. Also the Xcaret park is right there so extra bonus to keep kids entertained.

Whoa are you me? We booked club med in Mexico for Thanksgiving. We got 2 kiddos under 3 and all inclusive was huge appeal. Extra stuff for kids was a cherry on top.

Starter EW, OLN, V. Closed out my UNG short and trimmed some CNC puts I wrote (accidental timing).

Can you expand on your UNG trade? I shorted a bunch when it went up a bunch and just closed my shorts but I generally don't dear to write puts on this thing.

CRM starter.

Minor suggestion here. 1256s in the US get taxed at 60/40, irrespective of the time you hold them. Some ETF options get taxed depending on how long you hold them. You can optimize your strategy here by using ETF options and match tax duration, i.e., your long leg can go down from ST to LT rates if you hold for a year. You can match similarly on the short side to use LT losses to offset LT gains.