ICUMD

@Viking a highly astute and gutsy move! To be buying only one tech stock as it goes down to a 100% position. Apple of course is an exceptional company and your analysis on point. For unlucky or average folks, results can differ. When I was younger, I used to take that kind of risk. Nortel went to 0. I was a high school coop student ultimately loosing 20k. Many of the engineers I knew there lost their retirement savings. While the concentration results can be life altering, my approach today is more modest sticking with a core of banks, rail and utilities. Always found it interesting that Gates had diversified his holdings away from Microsoft and was one of the largest holders of CNR. WB also a rail fan. Rail is a fantastic example of long term compounding with low risk.

Black Swan events are the reason I prefer diversification over concentration. Even within a diversified portfolio, I kick myself when one of these events hits a heavy position that I become loathe to average down on.

Update on Construction of BIAL Aerocity: https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/karnataka/2022/aug/08/phase-1-of-bengaluru-airport-city-to-open-by-2025-2485210.html

TD bank

Definitely @Viking has some exceptional analytical skills. My original large concentrated position was in Fairfax India, currently still down about 25% in over 5yrs. Wow. Whoever coined the phrase, Don't time the market??? Ha. Fortunately, I've managed to dilute the position to less than 10% of my portfolio size, mainly through several good quality CDN companies, esp BMO, which I levered into in the 2020 downturn. I now hold about 12-15 companies in my core. Focus is increasing dividend cash flow. I now add to deep corrections in the core. I continue to repay tax deductible margin debt and maintain a positive carry. Diversification has helped balance my portfolio. Investible available cash and cash flow to me are important components.

My understanding: BIAL is the operator of the airport based on 30 year lease (which can be renewed for another 30 yrs). It does not really own either the land nor the airport. The value of the land is tied to the 'non aero' cash flow it is able to generate, of which it will keep 100%. Of course there are serious development costs. This cash flow could be tremendous over the coming years if they execute wisely.

I agree 100%. Reading between the lines, I am not convinced they have been getting their 16% promised rate of return on aero revenue via UDF reset. The value of the airport is intrinsically tied to this promise. They would be overstating the value of the airport if it's an impaired asset, and charging performance fees on its impaired value.

Some good points. Judging from the very low daily trading volumes, discount to book value may be simply due to lack of interest. NCIB is probably the biggest net buyer of shares and only at highly discounted times. SIB is probably the best opportunity to get close to BV anytime soon. Of course, they may have acquisitions in lieu of SIB in mind also.

Unfortunately, of the things I read, less than 1% is useful knowledge. Of that, the actionable 1% requires many more hours of contemplation.

'Vegitables and casseroles are very strong' Definitely nothing to worry about. LoL Seriously, what an embarassment for India. From the homeland of people like Watsa, Nadella and Pichai. This fool is the 'chosen one' to build India's infrastructure future? A strong F in convincing the world that corruption is not an issue when doing business in India. OTOH The best outcome here is that he has to sell assets at reasonable valuation to raise cash. This will help quickly diversify the investor pool. Possibly attracting global infra asset managers.

Very true. If I'm not mistaken, Fairfax lost out to Adani bidding for the Ahmedabad airport, as an example.

Could yield some interesting opportunities for Fairfax India.

A good opinion piece on the Hindenburg report and Adani. https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/what-really-worries-indians-about-adani-s-empire-1185035.html In summary, Adani may be India's vehicle to fast tracking infrastructure development. There are lots of examples of high leverage, unprofitable companies promoting their stock prices to achieve their agenda. Could they collapse? Absolutely. But they likely have some very strong backers in government and business.

https://qz.com/for-india-the-adani-group-is-growing-too-big-to-fail-1849873489 LIC is a heavy investor in Adani. Also, LIC is a large holder of IDBI, which it's trying to sell to bidders including Fairfax. Very interesting.

Very interesting developments. Hintonberg makes strong arguments against Adani. This has the possibility of airing out a lot of dirty laundry right through to upper levels of government. Just a month ago, an article was positing that Adani was too big to fail. Let's see!

Interesting. I continue to hold a large stake, at underwater prices. My conviction remains based on the quality of the underlying holding. My error was not purchasing in more measured and tempered quantities. Covid was an unanticipated complication. In any case, I think we're back on track to see a return to book value 18-20$ in the short run. I think real value is closer to $25.

Definitely good points. Canadian Mortgages are Full Recourse - so there is some insulation there. Further, those with less than 20% down payment require Canadian Mortgage and Housing Insurance against default. BNS trades at a PE of 8 and Dividend of 6.2% which is historically fairly attractive - so have modestly added to this recently. AFAIK, CDN banks have never in their history cut their dividend.

Sure, they can go down. But given their 200 yr history, unlikely to ever go out. When it goes down - I get greedy. Most importantly, I manage the dividend income vs leverage expense cash flow. I'll let you know in 10 yrs how it goes.

I continue to hold a leveraged portfolio of Canadian Financials as my core. Bank of Nova Scotia currently trades at a particularly attractive valuation and yield.

BIAL 356 Crore Loss FY 2022 https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/bial-incurs-net-loss-of-rs-356-crore-in-fy22-due-to-covid-19-impact-122122800985_1.html

2023 should be an exceptional year for Fairfax India. Confluence of pent up chronic undevaluation and underrecognition. T2 BIAL completion with end of covid restrictions. Pent up travel demand, China restrictions favoring Indian interests etc. Pile that on a very thinly traded equity with excellent management and improving capitalization, odds of strong returns are very good indeed.

Looks like there are indeed other interested investors in BIAL... may not have been entirely rumor that buyout offer. https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/adani-group-weighs-acquiring-stake-in-bengaluru-airport-11668362140321.html May help with proper valuation of the airport. The next 1-2 yrs will see explosive growth in passenger numbers.

Puzzling since they saw 33 million passengers FY 2018-19. I suspect they are now seeing monthly pre covid numbers. Here's a peek preview on T2:

Darn. Was curious to see how the market valued 1.5 - 2 billion cash + 1 billion in equities.

I don't think this is a risk. Remember, they are operators of the airport rather than outright owners. They have a long term contracted lease to operate the airport. It is also a capital intensive business. Having said that, they could be getting jerked around. Pressure to open up HAL, caps on UDF fee increases post COVID, etc. If they can get top dollar with the T2 inauguration and move into a business they know more about (banking) which they outright own, could be a very good move. I think CSB has been a successful acquisition. Airports have been commanding top dollar in India as judged by the recent sales. I'm not against the move. If all this is true, this may be one of those 'revert to book value moments' I mentioned previously. LoL